Comments on: It’s time to talk about Avisail Garcia

By: South Side - Baseball Prospectus

South Side - Baseball Prospectus — Thu, 29 Jun 2017 06:03:45 +0000

[…] 2. Avisail Garcia’s hot start to the season was so impressive and unlikely that we waited and waited and waited and waited and waited for the other shoe to drop. Surely, this was not the hitter he’d become. He’s been good but it’s totally, definitely not going to continue. OK, fine, it’s time to talk about how good he is. […]

By: Ryan Schultz

Ryan Schultz — Tue, 27 Jun 2017 16:30:35 +0000

Or rather that he never should have been called up for a full season in the first place. The Tigers aren’t blameless in this. The White Sox assumption that because he was up with the Tigers he was ready to be a major leaguer was also a poor assumption. But as a White Sox fan, this isn’t a new feeling by any means.

By: Slascher

Slascher — Tue, 27 Jun 2017 16:27:56 +0000

Fair enough. Of course, part of the reason we don’t often seek breakouts after multiple poor seasons in the big leagues is that typically, a player as disappointing as Avi would have been sent to the minors until he figured it out.

By: Ryan Schultz

Ryan Schultz — Tue, 27 Jun 2017 15:49:23 +0000

I didn’t directly address his age in the piece, but I think age matters less than experience in this case. Outside of this year, which has been weird all around the league, we don’t often see “toolsy” prospects breakout after multiple poor seasons in the big leagues. But it does happen, and that might be the case for Avisail.

Even though we’re no longer in small sample size zone, I still want to see more from Garcia before I can make a decision about whether this will stick. There are warning signs, but there are good signs the other way too. A full season of this and there are some totally different conversations to be had.

By: Slascher

Slascher — Tue, 27 Jun 2017 15:45:06 +0000

Ryan, I think you may be underestimating the relevance of Avi’s age — even after several years of mediocrity (at best), he is still just 26 (as of this month). So it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he took a big step forward in his development this year. That said, his failure to improve his strike zone judgment is a big red flag to me, and because of that I agree there is a risk of regression despite his favorable age.

By: Ryan Schultz

Ryan Schultz — Mon, 26 Jun 2017 16:52:22 +0000

Sure, it’ s possible that the shoulder injury had an impact. But unless it was completely causing him pain, he wouldn’t have also been poor at discerning the strike zone and breaking pitches. That was a weakness as well.

Regarding the BABIP/XBH, yes the increase in XBH is a great sign. That’s essentially the increase in SLG that I mentioned. If he can keep slugging .500+ he’ll remain a useful player but the concern is that he will see a drop in average, which will also drop that SLG down a bit. I still agree he’s a much different player this year, but I am waiting for him to settle into what that really means without the .400 BABIP if that makes sense.

By: Russ

Russ — Mon, 26 Jun 2017 16:45:44 +0000

I’ll echo Marty34. A shoulder injury can really mess up a person – shoulder rehab is one thing but if you’ve never experienced major shoulder pain you don’t realize how much your entire body has to slow down to compensate. Avi lost 15 pounds in the off-season, weight he probably didn’t have 4-5 years ago.

Add that extra weight to the adjustment every young player has to make from AAA to MLB and it compounds the problems. Avi just looks more comfortable in the batter’s box now. I put less emphasis on BABIP than I do on XBH – Avi’s about at the full 2015 and 2016 XBH counts. That’s what gives me confidence that most of the productivity is not luck.

By: Marty34

Marty34 — Sun, 25 Jun 2017 16:50:12 +0000

Could be we were discounting the effect his injury had on his development. In a system that is lacking power, Garcia and Davidson should be considered keepers at least for one more year.