He put it all together in AAA this year in a dominant way.

So I’m confident he puts it all together. But what the “it” is though might fluctuate.

For any first year pitcher you have to assume a 10-20% chance they fall apart. Injury, surgery, or something else.

But of the remaining 85% I’m predicting 45/40
45% dominant #2 or #3 starter
40% one of the best relief arms in baseball. He might falter at starting next year and move to the pen. Or he might move to the pen in late 2019 when Rodon/Hansen/Kopech/Giolito are all credibly competing for #1, and Cease/Fulmer/Dunning/Stephens/Adams/Guerrero/Clarkin/Puckett/Flores are competing for #5.

Either way, I see ReyLo (or as Abreu says, “Lopey”) putting up 2-3 WAR next year and every healthy year after.

I don’t think he will ever be a 4 WAR ace. But 3 WAR starter or 2.5 WAR reliever year after year is completely believable.