Why did the Sox do this? There was a place for him on the roster and it would be easy enough to make sure both he and Tyler Saladino would get regular playing time. If everything broke right, he could potentially be flipped for a middling return or take over full-time at second or third after doing the same with Todd Frazier. It was weird! But it only got weirder!

It is now mid-May and somehow Lawrie remains a free agent. Which is kind of insane. Baseball players can hover around forever. Just this past week I learned Endy Chavez is still playing organized baseball down in the Mexican League. Pull up any random Triple-A roster and you’re guaranteed to find at least one name that makes you go “wait, he still exists?” and we’re somehow almost one quarter of the way through the season and Lawrie hasn’t laced up even once.

HOW?! It’s not like we’re talking about Jermaine Dye’s strange career denouement. He was old, he stopped hitting, the end. Lawrie is 27. He’s been a league average bat the past three seasons while being worth an average of 1.7 bWAR per year that can capably play second and third base. That’s not particularly sexy, but it’s pretty danged useful and can mean the difference between playoff baseball and sitting October out. Some minor roster scanning of teams that came into this season with at least somewhat reasonable aspirations of contending came up with eight franchises that would benefit from having a player like Lawrie on the roster right now (Boston, Toronto, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, the Mets, Texas, the Angels, and San Francisco). Surely one or two of those contenders would be happier with Lawrie over what they’re currently trotting out every day.

But when you Google his name, the most recent news that comes up is still stuck in early March with his agent talking about minor soft tissue discomfort in his lower body and Lawrie’s comments about the orthotics he obtained last season messing him up. His Twitter page is full of short videos of him doing sprints and jumps with quotes about getting his springs back and all of a sudden the Sox cutting ties seems far less odd.

Lead Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

In terms of the White Sox’ greater strategy, Rick Hahn pointed out that it made sense to tender Lawrie at the beginning of the winter as they had believed Todd Frazier was a likely candidate for a trade. Had that happened, Lawrie would have shifted over to his more natural position at the hot corner. Obviously, it didn’t, and Hahn cited a desire to free up playing time for Tyler Saladino and Yolmer Sanchez as part of the reasoning behind letting Lawrie go with the arrival of spring. Saladino has demonstrated an ability to contribute in the majors, which is not yet true of Sanchez. Leury Garcia is also coming off of a good 2016 in Charlotte and has gotten off to a hot start in Spring Training. The White Sox are likely interested to see if there is anything there as well, and may wind up needing his ability to cover in center more than they needed another option to cover second and third.  It may also be the case that Lawrie still hasn’t recovered from injuries that cost him almost half of 2016, although that’s (reasonable) speculation at this point.

Some excited onlookers have interpreted Lawrie’s release to mean that the Yoan Moncada Era has commenced earlier than expected. While Tim Anderson arrived earlier than most would have predicted last season, that was in the context of a team that was trying to win immediately, had gotten off to a great start, and had a huge need at shortstop. Here, the White Sox don’t have any reason to rush Moncada, either from a gaming service time perspective, or from the perspective of 2017 wins and losses.

Moreover, Moncada still has not had 250 plate appearances above High-A, so the White Sox would not even be raising the appearance of impropriety by starting him in the minors to give him time to iron out any wrinkles in his defensive game or in terms of making contact against pitchers with higher level command.  Moncada has hardly been left to stagnate at levels where he has nothing left to prove, and Lawrie’s presence or absence doesn’t change that reality.

One possibility is that Moncada destroys the high minors to the point where his promotion is the only choice, and the release of Lawrie does help clear an obstacle to his arrival in that sense–it’s easier to do this now than in-season. But in the meantime, they can also find out whether Sanchez or Garcia have anything to offer moving forward or can make visible progress against major league pitching with regular playing time, which is the type of sorting and evaluating expedition that rebuilding teams have the “luxury” of conducting. And if Moncada struggles initially in Birmingham or Charlotte, there are still plenty of bodies to cover the infield.

Lead Image Credit: Joe Nicholson // USA Today Sports Images

The White Sox have elected to release Lawrie, and will divvy up his playing time between Tyler Saladino and Yolmer Sanchez while keeping an eye on how Yoan Moncada progresses in the minors. The team’s official line is that they want to keep with the spirit of their rebuild by allowing these young players more opportunities to play. Lawrie is younger than Saladino, but Lawrie’s 2,400-plus plate appearances give us a much better view of what to expect moving forward, even before accounting for his likelihood to stay on the field.

One might question the timing of this decision as it pertains to the $3.5M contract the Sox extended Lawrie to play for 2017. It’s likely he was initially retained as a corner infield insurance plan in the event that Todd Frazier was moved. With the season nearly upon us and such a move not yet imminent, it looks as safe as it ever will to part ways, and enables them to utilize spots on the roster in more creative and productive ways. Much like when they released Dayan Viciedo prior to the 2015 season, the organization should only be on the hook for a fraction of Lawrie’s agreed-upon contract.

Good bye, Brett Lawrie. We’ll always have the box jumps and the weird eye black and crazy mouth guard and ramblings about orthotics … Wow, what a strange man.

Lead Photo Credit: Rick Osentosk – USA Today Sports Images

One of my favorite aspects of PECOTA to look at around this time of year is the player comparisons, something that is far from gospel but at least somewhat useful in that: “it takes a player’s baseline projection and finds players with the same age and similar contact, power on contact, walks, and strikeout rates, as well as similar height, weight, handedness, and position (or start/relief split for pitchers).”

There’s always something interesting in these player comparisons, so I thought I’d take a look through the top ones for White Sox players and see if anything fun comes up.

Carlos Rodon

Fun comp: 2014 Madison Bumgarner

Baseball Prospectus Editor in Chief Aaron Gleeman wrote a piece last week listing the pitchers PECOTA thinks are the best bets to break out in 2017. Among those pitchers was Rodon, and when you look at his top comparable player and the stats that pitcher put up in that season, it’s easy to start dreaming of a future Cy Young contender.

The grain of salt that’s needed to be taken with these comps is important to remember, of course. At 24, Bumgarner had already completed three straight 200-plus inning seasons, where Rodon first full season a year ago saw him max out at 165 innings. Stuff like that are the most obvious flaw in these projections (remember, this exercise is supposed to be fun). But when you see Rodon compared to a pitcher and season that produced 217 innings, 219 strikeouts, and 6.1 WARP, you see why both the White Sox and PECOTA are enticed by his potential.

Jose Quintana

Fun comps: 2014 David Price, 2014 Johnny Cueto, 2010 Adam Wainwright

Quintana’s comps are a testament to his consistency and the fact that he’s established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the league. Price in 2014, Cueto in 2014 and Wainwright in 2010 all led their respective leagues in innings pitched and strikeouts. In both Cueto’s and Wainwright’s cases, their performances led to second place finishes in Cy Young voting. Price put together his season across both Tampa Bay and Detroit, so he could have another thing in common with Quintana before long.

Brett Lawrie

Fun comps: 1999 Ray Durham, 2009 Alexei Ramirez

Lawrie’s comps are fun mostly because they include two memorable seasons by White Sox infielders. Durham’s ’99 was his second season in what wound up being nine straight of .800 OPS or higher, and 11 straight at .785 or higher. Ramirez’s ’09 was his second in the majors and another step in establishing him as an above-average contributor at his position.

The difference between those two and Lawrie, of course, is that both were consistently healthy throughout those seasons, while Lawrie has yet to prove he’s able to do that.

Tyler Saladino

Fun comps: 2014 Brian Dozier, 2008 Brandon Phillips

If there’s any comp that might make you believe this system is whacked out of its mind, it’s this one. Saladino profiles as a solid major-league utility player, someone who can start in a pinch but that shouldn’t be relied on to be a meaningful contributor if you have eyes on contention. In 2014, Dozier hit 23 home runs, stole 21 bases, and put up a .762 OPS and 4.4 WARP in 707 plate appearances. Two years later he was a 40-dinger guy who garnered MVP votes. Phillips’ ’08 numbers were similar, but it was a below-average offensive season by his standards.

So there you have it. The White Sox have future Cy Young contenders and top second basemen on their roster already. This rebuild is going to be much simpler than anyone expected.

Lead Photo Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

With all of these caveats in mind, it is a good thing that Carson Fulmer pitched two successful innings against what is basically the Dodgers’ A lineup minus the injured Adrian Gonzalez.  It is a positive that Miguel Gonzalez is able to come out of the gates healthy, and that Zack Burdi pitched a 1-2-3 inning in his first appearance of the year.  But really, the biggest positive of all is that the days are getting longer again, and we are that much closer to real baseball.

Odds & Ends:

• The front office unequivocally named Charlie Tilson as first in line for the center field job.  Not long after, Tilson experienced a setback in his recovery from his massive hamstring injury, and although the timetable doesn’t impact his Opening Day readiness on its face, it casts doubt on how much playing time can be expected from him.  Now center field is as chaotic a spot on the roster as ever.  Peter Bourjos got the start in game one, but came off the bench in favor of Jacob May against Colorado.  If you’re looking for something to follow from day-to-day, this could be of some interest should Tilson’s recovery further stall.
• Brett Lawrie is still making sure he is 100% before returning to full duty.  Lawrie has an extensive injury history, and what sounded like a minor issue last year wound up cascading and wiping out the bulk of his season.  Unlike the outfield, however, unless and until some more trades happen, the infield picture is quite clear, as the White Sox actually have credible fallback options on the dirt in case of injury.  The biggest hope here is that Lawrie gets himself healthy and mashes out of the gates in order to boost his trade value.
• David Robertson has also already thrown an inning without issue.  Even more than Lawrie, the White Sox stand to benefit significantly if he can demonstrate to potential trade partners that he has recovered from his knee injury and is still the quality reliever he has been for years.
• After months of talking about the inevitability of a Jose Quintana trade, it was somehow jarring to tune in on Sunday and see Quintana take the mound in a White Sox uniform.  While the organization’s strategy is now clear, there are myriad ways that 2017 could play out.  Not a lot of scorched earth rebuilding teams have a pitcher of Quintana’s caliber to run out there every fifth day.  Given the rest of the roster, he may have a lot more hard luck losses and no decisions in his future until he gets dealt to a contender.

That said, hearing the Yankees are dropping out because they don’t want to give up “three elite prospects,” calls back old memories of the Sox and their stringent high demands stagnating trade progress (though a quick look at their prospect list shows its benefits, of course). Speculation that the Braves could still be in provides a reminder of the transience of these things, but so far they have traded one of the greatest talents to ever hit the trade market, victimized a desperate Nationals team looking for a consolation prize, and appear to have a good demand for the third super cost-controlled All-Star talent in its prime.

Moves for the guys who are not providing useful value if they are not contributing to a winning White Sox team such as Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera, however, have lacked any real momentum. Nothing has percolated on David Robertson for a while, not that there’s the same rush, and why there isn’t a feeding frenzy for Nate Jones continues to be baffling. The Los Angeles Dodgers, the win-now team most in need of a real second baseman, just had their trade talks for Brian Dozier fall through, which at least provides a theoretical opening for Brett Lawrie, if not one that has his name attached in any meaningful way. It’s more important to max out the returns for their super pieces, but confusing they still have all these players who obviously should be traded.

Just the return on a Quintana trade alone will likely be enough to vault the Sox to having the best farm system in the game, so nitpicking about whether they are approaching moving the smaller bits of their roster aggressively feels a bit silly. But when we’re talking about what kind of homegrown core is needed to build a World Series winner on presumably a $120 million budget three years from now, no prospect buildup is enough.

The common reason to fret about this is the new wave obsession with maximum tanking during a rebuild, and gunning for the No. 1 pick with the cynical force of a thousand suns. My reason for focusing on it probably reads as trivial as quibbling over the expected value of the second pick vs. the first pick: clarity of purpose. Clearing the house quickly eliminates the weirdness of entering the year full of vets who expected to play for a contender, shows the Sox are committed to an extreme, scorched Earth approach that will maximize their efforts, and allows them to use 2017 as an opportunity to try out projects rather than to carry out trade auditions.

But I don’t even waste time writing that paragraph if I’m not a little bored with a quiet January. The market still has left the Sox behind in many real ways. Frazier has not been left out of any run on third baseman, there’s a very real glut of first baseman and designated hitters to suppress Jose Abreu‘s market. Only relievers seem like territory the Sox could be pushing into, and there’s no end in demand for that ever.

To that end, avoiding arbitration with Dan Jennings and Jake Petricka is the actual transactional news of the week. Both could be traded for some sort of lotto ticket if they prove themselves capable in 2017, and both seem like the type of projects who fit within the typical constraints of a rebuild. They’ll also be more interesting to watch than they will have significant effect on building the new core, which is a good preview on how watching the activities of the big league club will be going forward.

Lead Image Credit: Rick Osentoski // USA Today Sports Images

Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu, Nate Jones, David Robertson, Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, Brett Lawrie. Zach Putnam is really good but needs to show that he’s healthy and productive again unless the Sox just want to give him away out of the goodness of their heart.

That segues well into a discussion of Abreu. Teams are smart enough to know his ability to hit for average gives him a higher floor for performance than boppers like Mike Napoli, Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez, or even Mike Trumbo, so there could definitely be a buyer for him, but this is obviously not the peak time for his market given the sag in his performance and a bevy of cheap options. It depends on where Abreu and the Sox fall on the question of whether he’s a great ambassador they would like to have around for the clubhouse and the community, or whether they would like to give him the chance to join a winner and not have to deal with a fractured roster going nowhere. The former seems like a false goal; even if they would like him and Yoan Moncada to play together, a 30-year-old Abreu is unlikely to fit on their timeline. Having a conversation with Abreu about his wishes would be good way of determining how to go forward.

Frazier, Lawrie and Cabrera are more obviously do not fit on the Sox contention timeline, since they are all free agents after 2017. The Dodgers are a fun catch-all for proposed trades, because they have a mix of top-end to mid-tier prospects and sort of need everything the Sox have. They are currently empty at third base, second base, and probably would accept a full new bullpen if it was feasible. That makes them an easy landing spot for Frazier and Lawrie, but that dries up if the Dodgers re-sign Justin Turner (highly possible), or trade for Brian Dozier (possibly but unlikely).

After that, options get iffy for either of them, because they cannot offer much more than league average (Even BP’s power-favoring True Average metric had Frazier at a slightly above-average .266 last year). They represent solid options if you’re a team like the 2016 White Sox, who would have a sinkhole otherwise. But the Giants have Eduardo Nunez, and as laughable as that seems he wasn’t significantly worse than Frazier other than his inability to stay on the field. The Cardinals could certainly use another corner infield bat to save from having to rely on bouncebacks from Jhonny Peralta or Kolten Wong, but could just easily slide Jedd Gyorko to third and not sweat it. The Red Sox have Pablo Sandoval, who is probably toast, but well-paid enough to get a shot, though Frazier could provide insurance and a right-handed complement to Mitch Moreland at first. Contending teams rarely regret having an extra competent power bat on hand, or someone who can cover multiple infield positions like Lawrie–who could also save the Diamondbacks from relying on Chris Owings–but sometimes have to reach a midseason point of desperation to pay for it.

Similarly, Cabrera is a switch-hitter who posted a .270 TAv last year, but his derided defense makes him an uncompelling full-season option, and lacks upside at 32, which might explain why the Diamondbacks–who are in a weird spot given their win-now pieces and new management–might go forward with Brandon Drury and Yasmany Tomas, and why the Blue Jays might give a chance for Melvin Upton and Ezequiel Carrera, not to mention that they have to figure out what they are doing with Jose Bautista first.

There are less murky futures for the rest. Quintana’s price is enormous, and there’s some perception that talks with the Astros are at some sort of standstill, and maybe Chris Archer‘s higher ceiling could be tempting, and maybe Danny Duffy could be a less costly option. But the free agent market is truly abysmal. The best free agent pitcher available is 34-years-old and got left off his old team’s playoff roster. There is no one with anything beyond No. 3 starter upside on the market, and 33-year-old Edinson Volquez, coming off an awful season, just got two years, $22 million. There are too few meaningful avenues for upgrading starting pitching for no one to match Quintana’s price.

One step down is the delirium of the relief market, where elite options like Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen are fetching over five years of commitment and possibly $16 million annually. Robertson already has come up in rumors and clearly has a market, but Jones, coming off a dominant season and under contract for as many as four more years for as little as $17 million, is an asset that could pull as high as a top-50 prospect.

Pitching demand is insane and the White Sox are as rich in it as usual, but all the Sox hitters are rental hitters fringy and will need to be shopped aggressively if much value is going to be wrung out of them. That should be unsurprising, because if they weren’t fringy, the team wouldn’t be rebuilding. The Sox are a Quintana package away from having the best farm system in the sport, and have already had to hawk a generational talent for prospects, so try not to get wrapped up in whether they recoup value from Cabrera, Frazier and Lawrie deals that pursued a short-term reward that never came.

Lead Image: Rick Osentoski // USA Today Sports Images

They might as well.

Beyond strangely and cryptically half-committing to a rebuild already, the White Sox offseason has been listless and inactive, unless it’s interpreted as doing anything other than sussing the market for a massive trade. Barring that we count retaining Avisail Garcia and Brett Lawrie as major steps toward the 2017 AL pennant, the White Sox are probably sliding behind the buyer’s market if they want to employ Nick’s plan of slapping together a soft contender for this coming season while continuing to keep their options open to sell at the deadline.

A more straight-line interpretation is that Lawrie is an inexpensive, starting-quality non-shortstop infielder who could facilitate a major deal by fitting into a larger package or fill space after Todd Frazier gets traded. But Garcia is the big tell, because giving him at-bats is only justifiable if the games don’t mean anything at all.

So, all the stars are alligned for the White Sox to instigate a massive sell-off that is unprecedented during the Williams-Hahn regime, which has not been fully committed to publicly, and has only included rumors of dealing the tempermental ace that was at the center of multiple truly bizarre clubhouse incidents. This is not to cast doubt on the idea of a Sox rebuild being legitimate, they’re widely expected to be huge sellers this week–a fulfillment of a Dave Cameron prophecy–but rather to show just how much the White Sox have shrouded the process in mystery, presumably for their constant pursuit of maximum trade leverage.

Eight years of hyper-concentrated frustration and listlessness has crystallized frustration in the White Sox fanbase to an unprecedented level. The fanbase, at least its most visible portions on line, is more willing than ever to suffer a rebuild–even a less than necessary one–for the sake of a coherent direction. This week, if it contains a Sale trade, let alone even more tactful fencing of some of the great White Sox players of the last decade, will be an emotional bloodletting of the highest order, but the agony might be matched if they slip through the meetings with no trades consummated and and still no indications of where this is all headed.

Lead Image Credit: Rick Osentoski // USA Today Sports Images

Brett Lawrie

I have long been perplexed at the notion that tendering a contract to Lawrie would be anything other than automatic.  Some cited the presence of Tyler Saladino as rendering Lawrie superfluous somehow.  For an organization that has lapped the rest of the league in terms of sub-replacement seasons this seemed extremely foolhardy, given that both Saladino and Lawrie are injury prone, they both play multiple positions, and they’re both really cheap.  Indeed, scenarios where having too many good/usable players are rare, and limited to situations where you have like, too many really good DH-only types or something.

Even if the White Sox are dead set on rebuilding, in a world where Sean Rodriguez gets two years and $11.5 million, it’s hard to imagine that someone wouldn’t want to trade something for Lawrie at 1 year, $3.5 million.

Still, expecting the White Sox to get obvious, easy things correct has not been a given for quite some time.  Speaking of which…

Avisail Garcia

Garcia will turn 26 in June and has almost 1,600 major league PAs under his belt.  Unfortunately, as a hulking slugger who can’t play defense or run the bases, he hasn’t posted a slugging percentage over .400 since 2014 when it was a whopping .413.

Worse, in a way, is that for all that I slam him as a player, I have never heard anything but glowing reviews of his attitude, makeup, and work ethic.  Which means that he’s trying his absolute best and this is the best he can do.  A DH who can’t hit is pretty superfluous, and while $3 million should not be significant, this is also a team whose biggest free agent signing last year was for $5 million.

Even stranger to me was the speculation that the White Sox would keep Avisail and dump Lawrie.  Lawrie would be more valuable than Avisail as a DH, and he can play 2B or 3B. Fortunately, they avoided that bizarre scenario wherein I would truly have no clue what they were doing and settled for status quo plus some sanity.

If the White Sox go scorched earth rebuild, that’s one of the few scenarios where you can let Avisail chase his really low ceiling even more, but it’s pretty hard to imagine it would take any competent organization 2,000 PAs to get an accurate evaluation of him.

Lead Photo Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports 

Player Options

Pick up Matt Albers’ $3 million option for 2017 or pay his $250K buyout.

James: Buyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyoutbuyout

Nick: Maybe you keep him around as a test to see if Rick Renteria is as blind to his failings as Robin Ventura was? Like a trap!

Mark: Send him to the great reliever beyond.

Frank: Wish him luck in earning a save for some other team next year.

Arbitration or Non-Tender?

Jose Abreu is probably getting arbitration but he’s not exactly a non-tender decision either. Anyway, he’s estimated by MLBTR to get around $12 million. What a burden!

James: Trick him into opting into arbitration and then NON-TENDER and that’s how they start to teardown. It will be majestic.

Or just pick it up. Give him the money he was already going to get.

Nick: Whatever he wants, just pay the guy.

Frank: Jose Abreu is good. The White Sox don’t have enough good players. The White Sox should keep Jose Abreu.

James: Wow, will have to think on this reasoning for a while.

Mark: Just shovel money at him until he says thank you. He’s polite like that.

Todd Frazier – Final year of arbitration estimated at $13.5 million

James: This is a little expensive! But I’m not sure how the core for a winning team gets built by purging him and finding a superior option for less money. Justin Turner will probably be better, but not cheaper. Yunel Escobar will be cheaper, but not better. Non-tendering Frazier to sign Luis Valbuena would be some kind of bold.

Nick: The “craziest” thing you do here is pick him up for his last year and then trade him, right? I wouldn’t rule out Frazier having a bounce back 2017. Even if the White Sox are horrible you can still get something for him at the deadline.

Frank: Even if you think he’s not worth that money to the White Sox, it’s hard to imagine he’s not worth that money to anyone, which is basically where the line for non-tendering is.

Mark: I’m with Frank. There’s zero reason to not tender Frazier, even if you (for some bonkers reason) don’t want him on the team next year.

Brett Lawrie – Final year of arbitration estimated at $5.1 million

Nick: I’ve been petulantly hinting at how strongly I feel about this one on Twitter and screaming about it in the Slack. I was blown away that not only did people think he was a non-tender possibility, it seems that White Sox Twitter thinks that’s the optimal way to go. Given that the White Sox have like, 12 more seasons of sub-replacement regulars than any other organization in the last decade, the idea of punting a league average bat who plays multiple positions for this tiny amount of money is the peak of lunacy to me. I suppose trade him if that’s the way the grander scheme of the offseason is going.

Tyler Saladino and Lawrie play multiple positions, both hit pretty well, and you absolutely need to have depth. Saladino does not make Lawrie expendable.

Frank: What Nick said, plus what I said above about Frazier.

Mark: Cutting Lawrie loose would be one of the dumber moves the Sox would have done in a good while. Saladino is fine enough, but you’d have to have a lot of faith in his health and that regression won’t come a-callin’ for him. And even then, cheap depth is a great thing to have. Keeping both gives the wonderful option of having a competent backup at three infield positions. If the Sox are that hurt for cash that $5 million is going to ruin that, it’s firesale time.

Avisail Garcia – First year of arbitration estimated at $3.4 million

Nick: Guess what I think.

Okay I can’t wait for you guys to guess. My question is — if you non-tender him, does he do better than a minor league deal anywhere? Does a rebuilding team take a flyer on him? Does a team with a great track record of salvaging hitters scoop him up? Maybe Toronto can teach him to pop 30 dingers with a ~.780 OPS.

Frank: The White Sox need outfielders, and Garcia is still talented. While it’s not impossible to imagine him turning it around in his age 26 season, I just can’t see him doing it in a Sox uniform, and even if you do want to take that flyer, it shouldn’t be at that rate. (My confidence in the front office’s ability to cut him is greatly diminished by their flabbergasting decision to offer arbitration to Dayan Viciedo two offseasons ago).

Mark: Avi will land somewhere on a minor league deal, but I would not be surprised if he never gets significant major league time again.

Miguel Gonzalez – Final year of arbitration estimated at $2.6 million

James: Yes!

Nick: Remember when the Orioles cut him last year? They are paying Ubaldo Jimenez and Yovani Gallardo a lot of money to be terrible. They’ve also vastly outperformed the White Sox for like five years straight now.

Frank: Sounds good.

Mark: Cheap rotational depth is good. I’m for it.

Dan Jennings – First year of arbitration estimated at $1.2 million

Nick: Dan Jennings is weird, but it’s hard to argue he isn’t worth $1.2 million. They don’t really have any better options from the left side in house, and the dude doesn’t give up home runs.

James: He did some good things in 2016 and they are not going to suddenly become flush with lefties. His lack of LOOGY effectiveness is a real complication, though.

Mark: That’s a fine enough price for a usable enough LOOGY.

J.B. Shuck – First year of arbitration estimated at $1 million

Nick: There’s no way you can do this, right? If nothing else, Charlie Tilson makes HIM go away, doesn’t he?

James: I’d be just fine keeping him in the organization, but that doesn’t require $1 million. Non-tender and maybe bring him back on MiLB deal.

Mark: Shuck is the dictionary definition of fungible. No need to keep him.

Zach Putnam – First year of arbitration estimated at $900K

James: Zach Putnam only costs $900K?!?!?! Why does arbitration hate buckets of strikeouts?!

Nick: Buckets of strikeouts obtained in hilarious fashion.

Mark: And we can make Putnam County Spelling Bee references!

Jake Petricka – First year of arbitration estimated at $900K

James: How bad would a reliever have to be to not be worth a sub-$1 million flyer?

Daniel Webb – First year of arbitration estimated at $600K

James: Ah.

Mark: It’s not fair that you used up the best joke.

Outgoing Free Agents

Austin Jackson

James: He showed no ability to turn around the steady ebb of his power at the plate (he had zero home runs!) and then he wrecked his knee, likely reducing his one standout skill. There has to be some faith in a Tilson recovery to think what Jackson brought at the start of 2016 can be replaced internally, but Jackson is not a good investment on his own merits.

Nick: As we learned to our sorrow, there is a difference between Jackson’s replacement level bat and Shuck’s sub-replacement level bat and what that looks like. We also saw that if the other parts of the roster are working (Alex Avila starting instead of Dioner Navarro, etc.) this team CAN make things work with a glove only guy in CF.

But it seems dumb to spend any real amount of money on that. Hard to imagine Jackson commands more money than he got last year. If they want to bring him back for like $1.5 million as Tilson insurance then whatever, but I just don’t see the point. This should be production you can replicate internally.

Mark: Jackson was an okay-ish flier after the Sox decided to be dirt cheap. But that was hunting a best case scenario. Players in that hard of a decline don’t stumble into their best case scenarios with frequency. No need to waste the money on something the Sox should reasonably be able to replace.

Alex Avila

James: He got on base a lot (.359 OBP) and his pop came back (.160 ISO) but he barely stayed healthy enough to eclipse 200 plate appearances, and his defense is not particularly good. He’s smart as they come, but he’s going to be 30 and could threaten a 40 percent strikeout rate next year. Also if you want to give Omar Narvaez a chance, do you want two left-handed catchers?

Nick: I’m a ridiculous Narvaez fanboy, but they do seem a bit redundant. I don’t know how much Narvaez benefits from another year at Triple-A but maybe you just bring back Avila and call up Narvaez the instant he gets hurt, which he inevitably will.

Unfortunately, Jason Castro is one of the free agent catchers out there and he’s yet another lefty.

James: Since we’re all fairly comfortable with taking a whirl with Narvaez as a backup, Putting Avila on the roster as an extra backup or a depth signing seems extraneous at the moment. It might be more useful to let free agency play out a bit and figure out what we can swing for a starter first.

Mark: Avila can’t be counted on to be anything more than a backup at this point and the Sox have a younger and cheaper one of those worth trying out.

Justin Morneau

Nick: I was really happy for Morneau that he was able to come back and play at all and he doesn’t seem 100 percent cooked yet. I just don’t see what the point is. If you’re signing veteran free agents you’re trying to make the roster better in the short term, and if you’re doing that there are just better players in this free agent class, like Pedro Alvarez, Brandon Moss, and those are just the lefty 1B/DH dudes.

James: From an unsympathetic angle, he was bad, and is old and injury-prone and there should be little interest from anyone for a major league deal.

Mark: Morneau was a decent enough option to bet on last year. This isn’t last year.

With all this set, the roster entering our trades and free agency period is:

SP Chris Sale – $12 million

SP Jose Quintana – $7 million

SP Carlos Rodon – $530K

SP Miguel Gonzalez – $2.6 million

SP James Shields – $10 million

SP Carson Fulmer –

SP Anthony Ranaudo -

RP David Robertson – $12 million

RP Nate Jones – $1.9 million

RP Zach Putnam – $900K

RP Dan Jennings – $1.2 million

RP Jake Petricka – $900K

RP Zack Burdi –

RP Michael Ynoa –

RP Tommy Kahnle – $520K

RP Chris Beck -

RP Juan Minaya –

RP Matt Purke –

RP Blake Smith –

RP Brandon Brennan –

C Omar Narvaez – $510K

C Kevan Smith –

C Alfredo Gonzalez -

1B Jose Abreu – $12 million

IF Brett Lawrie – $5.1 million

IF Tyler Saladino – $520K

IF Carlos Sanchez – $520K

SS Tim Anderson – $510K

3B Todd Frazier – $13.5 million

3B Matt Davidson –

IF Leury Garcia –

OF Melky Cabrera – $15 million

OF Adam Eaton – $4 million

OF Charlie Tilson – $510K

OF Jason Coats -

James: At this point I would bet on Kahnle, who pitched OK down the stretch, to make the Opening Day roster over Burdi. I also think a new left-hander will be in the mix, so I’m uncomfortable pegging even six of these guys as already on the 2017 25-man roster, let alone seven.

All of the league minimum salaries are very guess-timated but the difference what I have guessed and what they will be is negligible. In sum, we have roughly $102 million for 21 players currently routed for the 25-man, with big needs at outfield, DH, catcher, and left-handed relief, and also, the tenderest hugs. Some very low level fliers for starting rotation depth are in order. There’s an argument to be made that if you do well enough getting another outfielder or bat, and improving catcher, you can let Tilson stink it up with the bat and play center, but it would be a lot easier to make that case if he had made a successful two-month audition rather than immediately obtain a severe injury.

Part 2 will run later this week.

Lead Image Credit: Rob Grabowski // USA Today Sports Images