You may be asking yourself, “Mark, why the hell are you talking about Walker Buehler?” and that’s a fair question. The Dodgers drafted Buehler 24th overall out of Vanderbilt in the 2015 draft. The White Sox drafted his Commodore rotation-mate 16 picks before that. That young hurler?

Carson Fulmer.

There have been questions about Fulmer’s future role since day one. He’s listed at a generous 6-foot-0 and has an irregular delivery that screamed “reliever” to a not-small number of scouts. But his fastball sits in the mid-90s and he already had a good feel for the cutter, so he seemed like a safe bet to at least become a seventh inning guy if the whole starter thing didn’t pan out. Not quite what you want out of a top 10 pick, but positive value is positive value and young late inning arms count as that.

Fulmer’s late season cup of coffee last year was deceiving. He struck out a decent number of hitters (19 in 23.1 IP) and had a respectable 3.86 ERA. But he walked 13 hitters and gave up four home runs, so it was fair to wonder if that was more smoke and mirrors than meat and potatoes. He deserved a shot at the rotation in Spring Training and did well enough to break camp as a starter.

April saw two good starts, one against Toronto (5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 1 BB) and one against Kansas City (7 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 3 BB). That’s it for highlights. Over three starts in May, Fulmer completely lost the thread. He pitched a total of 7.1 innings, allowing 17 earned runs while walking just as many hitters as he struck out (11). Management had seen enough and Fulmer spent the rest of the season with the Charlotte Knights. That didn’t go well either.

Fulmer started nine games for the Knights before being transitioned to the bullpen. The results? A 5.32 ERA with 62 strikeouts and 41 walks over 67.1 IP. His stuff is still there, he just doesn’t seem to have any idea where it’s going once it leaves his hand. His control didn’t improve after shifting to the bullpen, which is pretty concerning. Hopefully with a long winter to learn his new established role, things will turn around for Fulmer otherwise it’s looking more like he’ll be a mop-up man at best.

Lead Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Still, if you go to pretty much any leaderboard, particularly on the position player side, and sort from the top, you’re going to find it dominated by first round picks.  Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado, Christian Yelich, and so on.

And, as we know in baseball, there can be quite a bit of lag time between adding an amateur talent and their arrival in the majors.  Jorge Alfaro just played his first full year in the majors and he was on seven BP 101 lists—I didn’t realize Baseball-Reference had a “Show All” expand tab for prospect list appearances, but here we are.

This all brings me to the White Sox.  Given they’re in a rebuild, their first round picks are the best way to add star talent at minimal cost, and if they’re planning on competing in 2020-2022, ideally they’d be getting big contributions from their 2015-2017 first round picks.  When you throw in that the White Sox went college with all three of those selections—Carson Fulmer, Zack Collins, and Jake Burger—you’d hope their arrivals would sync up rather nicely with that window.*

Granted, these selections weren’t at the very top of the draft, coming eighth, tenth, and eleventh overall, so the degree of difficulty is higher than say, the barrage of Top 5 picks Dayton Moore has used to poor results for years, but right now these picks aren’t looking great.  Let’s look at each of them in turn:

• Carson Fulmer: The pros and cons were clear. Fulmer’s stuff is electric and he performed well against the toughest amateur competition, pitching for Vanderbilt in the SEC while getting good marks for his makeup.  But, he did not boast ideal size, delivery, command, or a clear third pitch. The theory might have been the White Sox have succeeded with unconventional deliveries and it was a way to maybe get an impact performer out of a comparatively low draft pick.  The negatives have definitely won out to date.  After getting absolutely obliterated in multiple tries as a starter at Triple-A and the majors, he has now been converted to a reliever.  There’s still a chance he’s an impact reliever, and today’s game makes them more valuable than they’ve been in the past, but a star this is not.

You can criticize almost any team by using hindsight and look at the guys who went after and cherrypick to say, “Aha! They should have picked [Player X] instead!” Still, it is kind of amusing they didn’t even take the best high risk, high reward starting pitcher from Vanderbilt in this draft available to them.

• Zack Collins: Another “zig when everyone else is zagging” pick—very few evaluators gave Collins a chance at sticking behind the plate defensively, and there were a lot of questions about his contact skills. The White Sox figured they’d coached up rough catcher defense before, and if he could stay back there they had a chance at an All Star given his power and patience.  At the ten spot, Collins’ ideal ceiling certainly had appeal.  However, as we sit here today and like Fulmer, although hope is not lost, the negatives are outweighing the positives, as he has stalled out in Birmingham, making marginal improvements on his defense while still posting batting averages in the .230s against minor league arms.  The walks are there, and the power is still pretty good, but it’s hard to say this year was a good one for his stock.  He turns 24 before Opening Day next year, and one would hope someone with his power, eye, and advance college competition would be able to muster better contact against Double-A pitchers in his third pro season.  Catchers are weird, and he’s certainly focusing very hard on his defense, but the probability he is a second division or bench quality 1B bat is frighteningly high.
• Jake Burger: Our prospect team liked Burger quite a bit—even if they thought he was a future 1B instead of a 3B. He just had a ton of batspeed and power and if you have enough of those two things you can contribute even if you have a whole lot of other problems.  Still, everything was going to have to break perfectly for him to play 3B, and as soon as you are moving a prospect to 1B they have to be absolutely elite bats in order to be stars.  Unfortunately, any chance Burger could string together some 3B seasons in the majors before moving across the diamond were blown up in dramatic fashion, as he tore his Achilles tendon not once but twice.  There’s still time for him to get back on track, but it’s a dramatic injury and it’s unclear how much power and batspeed will remain when he returns to the field.  And, as we’ve seen in recent years, the value of 1B/DH-only bats is lower than it has been in a long time.

Ultimately, despite the pedigree and obvious major league tools these three picks possessed, they all bore a significant amount of risk, and it’s looking like the White Sox may have rolled snake eyes on all of them.  If they continue to fail in the way they have to date, they can’t say these failures were unforeseeable, like, say, Gordon Beckham forgetting how to hit. And, the cumulative effect may be that once again the White Sox have a contender with holes where they wouldn’t be if they’d had better results with their first round picks.  Maybe they can just paper over it by blitzing studs they grab at the top of the draft like Nick Madrigal and whatever Top 5 player they grab next year to the majors, but they’re tying one hand behind their back if they get minimal contributions from three selections in the Top 11 overall.

The story of these three prospects is hardly over. This time next year we could be talking about Fulmer as a relief ace, Collins as the catcher of the future, and Jake Burger as a pure cleanup hitter, but if you think of each prospect as a range of possible outcomes with various probabilities assigned to those outcomes, the negative outcomes are currently gobbling up a whole lot more of the pie chart.

*The White Sox had a compensatory pick and got an extra first rounder to select Zack Burdi in 2016.  I don’t believe it changes the above analysis.  As a pure reliever, Burdi was always going to be a member of the supporting cast rather than a sizable piece of the “Core.”  The White Sox are better at it than most, but Ian Hamilton, Ryan Burr, Caleb Frare, and even potentially Tyler Johnson and others down in the minors look like late inning relievers and they did not cost the 26th overall pick.

Lead Image Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

• It’s hard to imagine Eloy Jimenez will be facing Triple-A pitching for too much longer. After a 2-HR performance on Friday, the 21-year-old is hitting .351/.400/.622 in 20 games since being promoted to the level, and has shown no signs of being slowed by the left adductor strain that sidelined him at the beginning of the month. Jimenez’s presence is one of if not the most obvious reasons the second half of 2018 is compelling despite the White Sox standing, as a solid two or so months of a lineup featuring him, Yoan Moncada, and Tim Anderson will offer a further glimpse into the future.
• Speaking of exciting players who might soon be in Chicago, Michael Kopech has put together two really good starts in a row, which is something we haven’t been able to say much this season. The 20 strikeouts in 12 innings across two starts is cool, but nothing new. What is new is that he only walked one batter a piece in those two outings, which is certainly a good sign for a pitcher whose struggled with command throughout the season. Kopech’s struggles certainly gives credence to those who think he’s more late-inning reliever than ace-level starting pitcher long term, but we’re a long way from that becoming a reality. It would be surprising if he doesn’t get his first crack at facing a major league lineup at some point before this summer ends.
• While BP’s Midseason Top 50 doesn’t include this year’s draft class, first-round pick Nick Madrigal was ranked No. 33 on Baseball America’s Midseason Top 100, and he was the White Sox third highest ranked behind Jimenez and Kopech. Since joining the organization, Madrigal has been to the plate 36 times between the AZL and Low-A Kannapolis and he’s reached base 17 times. He’s walked twice, been hit by a pitch four times, and has struck out zero times. That Madrigal has found immediate success as a polished college bat at the lowest levels of the minor leagues isn’t exactly surprising, but him doing exactly as expected is certainly better than the alternative.
• James Fegan of The Athletic profiled minor league reliever Ian Hamilton, whose success this season has him knocking at the door of a major league opportunity. Hamilton dominated Double-A during the first two months of the season and has put up zeros across all but one of his 11 appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Charlotte last month. Hamilton was an 11th round pick after spending his senior season at Washington State as a closer, so his trajectory as a reliever has never been in question. But him ascending to the majors for the White Sox would be a solid developmental win.
• Dylan Cease has been the biggest bright spot among White Sox prospects this season. The 22-year-old has pitched to somewhat mixed results in his four starts since promotion to Double-A, but has at the very least showed the type of swing-and-miss stuff that’s worth dreaming on. Perhaps more importantly, Cease has stayed healthy throughout the season, and after his last start sits at 93 1/3 innings on the season, which is tied for a career high with another month and a half or so left in the minor league season.
• Not that this would necessarily be considered a “success,” but the White Sox finally made the move to put Carson Fulmer in the bullpen after the 24-year-old’s struggles continued even after his demotion to Triple-A. It’s a disappointing but not unexpected outcome for the 2015 first rounder, and while it’s far from a guarantee, the hope is that he can reinvent himself as a reliever to still be a reliable part of the next White Sox contender. He’s made five appearances since the transition, giving up a pair of runs in one of them but zeros otherwise. He’s walked three and struck out five in 6 1/3 innings of work. That’s very much a “scouting the stat line” report, but it will be interesting to see what’s said about Fulmer once scouts get a look at how his stuff plays out of the bullpen.

Lead Photo Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

1. James Shields threw seven shutout innings on Wednesday night.  I’m not advocating for Cy Young votes or anything, but he’s sitting at a 4.29 ERA with a 4.27 DRA and 4.43 FIP to match while throwing the 6th most innings in the majors.  It would have been cool if he had managed this in 2016 instead, but I continue to be pleasantly surprised with how he has adjusted to his diminished arsenal, and these results are beyond what I would have predicted for 2018.

2. We’ve pointed out how thin the White Sox had become at outfielder, due to an unambitious Opening Day pool of talent to begin with, which was then severely eroded by injury.  Leury Garcia and Avisail Garcia returned from the disabled list at the same time and the boost to the lineup has been fairly clear.  Leury is hitting .471/.471/.529 in his return to Chicago, meaning his batting average is about 100 points higher than Trayce Thompson’s OPS. Avisail hasn’t walked yet in 2018, but he’s homered in back-to-back games while he tries to get back to 2017 form.  Either way, the offense has clearly benefited from turning 22% of the lineup into competent major league regulars again.

3. The bullpen continues to evolve from a weakness at the start of the season to a strength. Joakim Soria has held opponents to a .114/.262/.114 line in June and is now having as good of a season as he’s had despite his rocky start to the year.  Jace Fry continues to use his starting pitcher’s arsenal in a relief role to great effect.  Xavier Cedeno is doing his Jace Fry impression results-wise, having thrown 8.33 shut out innings since his call up from Charlotte while striking out more than a batter per inning using a crafty lefty arsenal.  These performances have helped the White Sox hold leads a lot better as they fight toward a .500 June, even in the absence of Nate Jones.

4. Eloy Jimenez hit his second home run in Charlotte on Wednesday, improving his line since promotion to .276/.344/.483.  Jimenez remaining in Charlotte after eight games is not an outrage the way, say, Vladimir Guerrero Junior hitting .800 or whatever for three months in Double-A was.  But he has shown no real signs of an adjustment period so to speak now that he’s facing the major league veterans in the International League as a 21-year-old, and there’s every reason to suspect he will start beating the door down to the majors in the coming weeks.

5. With Lucas Giolito turning in his most exciting start of the year over the weekend, looking like he had combined the improvements he made to his secondary pitches from last fall with the resurgent velocity he showed this spring, and Dylan Covey’s string of good starts, Carson Fulmer has been off the radar screen.  That’s just as well, as he continues to struggle at Triple-A. Despite a mediocre 4.46 ERA, Fulmer has walked 28 batters in 38.33 innings since his demotion.  Teams always burn through starters at a terrifying rate in this sport, but with the potential improvements from Covey and Giolito, Michael Kopech, Jordan Stephens, and now Spencer Adams catching him in Triple-A, I’m not sure how much longer you bother with Fulmer in the rotation.

Lead Photo Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Carson Fulmer’s demotion Friday — following yet another disastrous start — made sense in that even in a rotation rife with poor outings, his inability to show any semblance of getting through a major league lineup was doing no good for him or the team. Fulmer was drafted as someone who was expected to be close to major league ready and move quickly through the system. He did, even if he never really showed the ability to get even minor league hitters out.

At the risk of overreacting, it’s entirely possible that Fulmer is a lost cause at this point. The White Sox will continue to work him as a starting pitcher in Triple-A Charlotte, and while the assumption has always been that if he fails as a starter he still has the ability to be a productive reliever, there’s no guarantee of that either. Regardless of his future, sending him down made sense as there was just no point in seeing him get pounded every fifth day.

2. The logical replacement, you and I both say, is to call up Michael Kopech, who rebounded from his first truly poor outing of the season by striking out nine and allowing just four baserunners in seven shutout innings Friday. There’s plenty to be said about why the White Sox are keeping Kopech in Triple-A for the time being — whether they really want him to continue getting comfortable with the change-up or if it’s merely service-time manipulation — but regardless, it appears that’s not where they’re going … at least not yet.

Fulmer’s replacement on the roster in the short-term is Dylan Covey, who was called up prior to Saturday’s game against the Rangers. While it’s yet to be determined if Covey will take Fulmer’s spot in the rotation or if he’s merely serving as bullpen depth until that spot comes back around, I wouldn’t expect him to stick around for all that long. The White Sox rotation options are lacking at the moment behind James Shields, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Hector Santiago (who appears to be in the rotation by default at this point), but Carlos Rodon made his first rehab start Saturday in Low-A Kannapolis and is still expected to join the rotation in early June. It’s entirely possible the White Sox hang with the aforementioned incumbents and Covey until Rodon’s return.

If Kopech is off the table, there isn’t much of a choice. Along with Covey, the only other reasonable options are equally unappealing. There’s other Triple-A journeymen like Donn Roach or T.J. House; Tyler Danish has been pitching primarily in relief this year, and Jordan Stephens — probably the next most appealing option outside of Kopech — has just one start since joining Charlotte last week. These scenarios are hardly appetizing, but it’s the reality in which we seem to be living right now.

3. Lopez provided some relief to the White Sox rotation woes Sunday, putting together arguably the best start of his career in helping the White Sox to their first series win since the first series of the season. Even outside of his most recent outing when he was downright bad in lasting just 2 1/3 innings, Lopez’s peripherals hadn’t matched the results he had put up thus far this season. Sunday, Lopez was both efficient and filthy in tossing a career-high eight innings, striking out eight, walking two, and giving up two base hits.

Lopez showed the swing-and-miss-ability we’ve long known him to have, generating 16 whiffs, including 12 on a fastball that averaged 96 and hit as high as 98. Beyond that, he effectively worked ahead and kept the ball down except when he was elevating the fastball for a strikeout. Through six innings, only one of the Rangers’ recorded outs were fly outs, and they ended with only four in the entire game. That he lasted eight innings was a credit to his efficiency, and his 107 pitches were also a career high.

It was one start against a particularly bad offense, but a solid sign of progress from a unit that desperately needed it.

4. Speaking of struggling positional groups, Nicky Delmonico was hit by a pitch Friday and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a broken wrist. After a surprisingly strong debut in 2017, Delmonico has struggled mightily thus far, showing the same keen batter’s eye, but almost no pop whatsoever, slugging just .302 through 135 plate appearances.

The White Sox outfield options are perhaps even more grim than the rotation. While Avisail Garcia remains disabled and is now expected to be out until late June at the earliest, and until the team decides it’s time for Eloy Jimenez to come up, the options outside those already on the 25-man roster are limited, as evidenced by the decision to replace Delmonico on the roster with an infielder — Jose Rondon — as opposed to another outfielder. Some combination of Leury Garcia, Adam Engel, Trayce Thompson, and Daniel Palka will be run out there on a daily basis, although Rick Renteria intimated recently that they may consider giving Yolmer Sanchez — he of two career innings in the outfield — a shot at some point. Beyond that, internal options are severely lacking. Charlie Tilson has a .592 OPS in Triple-A, we’ve played the Jacob May game once already, Ryan Cordell is broken, and any other outfielder with a semblance of promise is too far away.

We’ve said on a number of occasions that the rebuild provides opportunities for players who might not otherwise get the chance to prove they belong, and there’s no better example than the outfield as currently constructed. Until Jimenez is called up or Garcia (who also struggled mightily pre-injury and is far from “established” even if he’s more so than the other guy), we’ll be seeing a whole lot of the aforementioned foursome.

5. An unexpected bright spot on an otherwise desolate season is that Jace Fry is apparently now a lights-out reliever. The 24-year-old lefty, who struggled in a brief debut in 2017, has now tossed 8 1/3 hitless innings since his return to Chicago, striking out 12 and walking just two. In Saturday’s win, Rick Renteria trusted him with a two-run lead in the eighth inning, and on Sunday he got the call in a 3-0 game to nail down his first career save.

Fry is an interesting case in that he wasn’t really on the radar prior to last season. Two Tommy John surgeries will do that to you. After last season’s reliever exodus, he earned an opportunity, and likely would have at the start of this season as well if not for an oblique injury. Relievers are volatile enough that him becoming an out-of-nowhere asset wouldn’t be the strangest thing in the world, but it would be far from predictable. It’s only been eight innings, but Fry has absolutely showed signs of becoming a valuable piece in another White Sox unit that could use something good to happen.

Lead Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

1. Yoan Moncada went 8-for-23 with a homer over the weekend, and going back even further, has gotten at least one hit in eight of his last nine games, raising his OPS from .724 to .887 over that span.

One of the theories that had been held throughout his debut season and during his sluggish first few weeks of 2018 is that Moncada’s passivity at the plate could be a hinderance. He’s already established a keen eye, but the selectivity was such that he’d often find himself behind in the count waiting for that perfect pitch. As you might expect, the league as a whole generally performs well when swinging at the first pitch, and even better when ahead in the count. Through Saturday, Moncada is 8-for-11 when putting the ball in play on the first pitch, and 17-for-28 when he does so on the first pitch or second pitch. Of his eight hits against the Royals, five came in those situations.

The sample size here is obviously small, and again, the league as a whole performs at an above-average rate in any of those three situations, but selective aggression obviously works in his favor. There was never much of a worry about Moncada during his slow start, but the last week-plus has been a good showcase of what kind of hitter he is likely to become.

2. A White Sox rotation that was already being held together by scotch tape was in flux for most of the weekend with Miguel Gonzalez disabled and a doubleheader Saturday. Extra innings on Friday meant the White Sox would go into the latter three games of the series with one shaky member of the rotation and the equivalent of two bullpen games while they trudged on, lacking an off day since April 19.

Carson Fulmer helped alleviate those woes a bit in the first game Saturday, turning in his strongest outing of the season with six shutout innings. With two straight quality outings, he’s rebounded quite nicely from back-to-back starts where he failed to make it through two innings, and somehow finds himself with a more-respectable-than-expected 4.32 ERA. The advanced stats say Fulmer’s gotten by mostly on luck in the last two outings, as he’s induced just six swinging strikes in his last two outings, and his DRA is an ungodly 10.66. Still, he’s throwing strikes, inducing weak contact, and providing some aid for a beat-up pitching staff. Some progress is better than no progress.

3. Yes, it was five games against the Royals, but the pitching staff as a whole showed signs of progress over the weekend. Lucas Giolito still isn’t missing bats like he did in the spring, but he battled through 5 2/3 innings in Thursday’s win, allowing just two earned runs. His K/BB is still an abysmal 11/21, but he generated eight swinging strikes against a lineup that, despite its futility, still ranks best in the league in strikeout percentage. Baby steps.

Reynaldo Lopez gave up 10 hits and only struck out two in his 6 1/3 innings of work Friday, but more importantly walked zero and got 10 swinging strikes in his 94 pitches. White Sox pitching as a whole is striking out fewer batters per nine than every team in baseball save these Royals, and are conversely walking more batters per nine than every team except the Braves. Their K/BB over this five-game series was 29/17, which is still pretty bad but a step in the right direction. (And that includes Saturday’s Dylan Covey start that featured seven walks).

4. Tim Anderson is getting in the habit of ruffling feathers. After last year’s dust-up with Marcus Stroman and rubbing Justin Verlander the wrong way with a stolen base a few weeks ago, a perceived slight after a home run led to some exchanged words with Salvador Perez and a brief clearing of the benches in the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader.

At the risk of being perceived as biased (I am), the White Sox are on the right side of this one. Anderson himself put it about as perfectly as possible.

“They’re trying to take the fun out of baseball,” Anderson said. “This game is fun, and I went through too much last year to not have fun. I’m having fun this year. It’s exciting and I’m going to continue to be me. I’m playing this game and being me, and that’s fun.”

Anderson becoming the regular source of ire among White Sox opponents is an unexpected twist, considering his genuinely cheery attitude as well as his general anonymity as a yet-established player on an otherwise bad team. But Anderson is performing well right now — a .278/.327/.454 line with four home runs, eight stolen bases, and more than half of 2017’s walk total is a solid start — means we’ll hopefully see more of his expressing pleasure at playing baseball well going forward.

5. Oh yeah, Matt Davidson. After four more home runs at Kauffman Stadium, he’s up to nine and still slugging .619 a month into the season. And after drawing two more Sunday, he’s up to 15 walks on the season after 19 all of last season.

I still don’t know what Davidson is going to become as a player, but his pedigree and early-season success leaves room for hope of him becoming an above-average contributor going forward.

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The White Sox banged out seven straight hits to start the game against Seattle’s Mike Leake, with the only out recorded during that time coming when Avisail Garcia was picked off. They led 7-0 after two innings and never looked back, as all 10 players to appear registered at least one hit.

1. I wrote Monday about how the White Sox being bad is a lot more tolerable if the young players we hope are going to be part of the next contender show progress. Monday’s win saw a lot of that, most specifically from Yoan Moncada. We’re still early enough in the season that one big game can do a lot for one’s batting line, and Moncada’s 3-for-5 evening brought his OPS from .729 all the way up to .838. A triple, double, and home run all before the end of the fourth inning will do that for you.

One of the strangest complaints we’ve had about Moncada’s tenure with the White Sox to date is that he seemed, at times, almost too passive at the plate. In the first, he laced a 1-0 sinker into the gap (it would’ve been a double if not for a misplay by Dee Gordon, but I digress), in the second he crushed the first pitch, a hanging knuckle-curve, over the head of Mitch Haniger for a double off the wall, and in the fourth … well, he took a couple of called strikes before ending Leake’s night with his fourth home run of the season.

2. Carson Fulmer took a small step toward giving the White Sox rotation more strikeouts than walks on the season, and an even bigger step in helping reestablish confidence he can succeed long-term as a starter.

Fulmer struck out three and walked just one in six innings, allowing two runs on three hits. Strangely enough, all three of the hits he allowed went for extra bases, including his only mistake, a 1-1 fastball to Mike Zunino that the catcher took out for a two-run homer.

It was an efficient outing if not overly impressive. Fulmer was able to induce contact using primarily his fastball, which he threw 67 times out of his 97 pitches. He only induced three swings and misses, but routinely hit the mark, succeeding in A) not falling behind, and B) not giving Seattle hitters anything to drive.

3. As strange as it may be, I often think about — particularly in seasons where the White Sox are as bad as they are currently — who the team’s All-Star representative is going to be. Right now, the answer is pretty definitively Jose Abreu, who is up to six home runs and a .949 OPS after Monday’s 4-for-5 performance.

Amid all of the focus on the White Sox young players and what they are or aren’t doing, it’s easy to overlook the continued brilliance of the 31-year-old first baseman. Plenty has been said about his mentorship to Moncada and the plethora of youngsters in the clubhouse, but he’s off to the best start since his rookie season and he’s performing on a level among the top first basemen in the game.

4. Chris Beck is back. The White Sox added him to both the 40- and 25-man rosters on Monday after the team placed Miguel Gonzalez on the 10-day disabled list with right rotator cuff inflammation and transferred Danny Farquhar to the 60-day DL.

Beck was the White Sox innings pitched leader among the relievers in 2017 kind of by default as he stuck around through the trades of every reliever with any semblance of value. And in those 64 2/3 innings of work he was … terrible, walking 34 against 42 strikeouts with a 6.40 ERA.

He’s back, though! And picked up his first career save by virtue of tossing the last three innings of Monday’s win. Saves are dumb, man. He throws hard, though, which has a lot (or all) to do with his continued opportunities, and gave up a lot of hard contact — and two runs — in his three innings of work. He also was the benefactor of one of the weirdest double plays I’ve seen in a while.

5. With Beck, who was starting in Triple-A before his promotion, tossing three innings on Monday and Gonzalez disabled, the White Sox rotation is up in the air, as  Chris Volstad, who last pitched Saturday when he tossed three innings, will take a turn on Tuesday as Hector Santiago was used Sunday.

Beyond Tuesday, things are more unclear with a taxed bullpen and doubleheader against the Royals on the horizon. There’s no indication they’re ready to give Michael Kopech his highly-anticipated debut, but given the state of the rotation, clamoring for exactly that will only grow.

Bonus Morning 6: While Monday’s win had plenty of positives, Avisail Garcia left with a right hamstring strain after coming up lame on a groundout in the third inning. It’s unknown at this point whether the injury will require a DL stint, but if it comes to that it will likely mean a healthy dose of Trayce Thompson in right field. Daniel Palka would be a logical replacement in the interim, as it’s hard to imagine Eloy Jimenez — who hit two home runs for Double-A Birmingham on Monday — would be the choice at this point.

Lead Photo Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

1. Fulmer was about as effective as hoped following a precarious spring. He sat 94 with his fastball and consistently threw both his changeup and cutter for strikes. The cutter, in particular, was working from the start. In the first inning, he struck out Justin Smoak on three pitches following his only walk of the game, and ended a first-and-third threat by getting Randall Grichuk chasing on a 2-2 cutter.

In all, he threw 48 of his 73 pitches for strikes, including 12 of 14 changeups and 14 of 16 cutters. Nine of those 26 strikes were of the swinging variety, according to Brooks Baseball, and three of his five strikeouts came swinging.

There was a reason Fulmer only threw 73 pitches, of course, as Rick Renteria had a quick hook following back-to-back hits — a Josh Donaldson single and Smoak double — to lead off the sixth. But, in general, the start was exactly what we saw out of Fulmer at the end of last season, only against real professional hitters instead of the Quad-A rosters of teams 30 games below .500. The stuff has always been there for Fulmer, but his ability to maintain his mechanics and consistently throw strikes both with his fastball and secondary stuff are going to dictate whether or not he’s a starter long-term. It’s one start, but so far, so good.

2. After the Opening Day dinger-fest, I wrote that the White Sox probably aren’t going to lead the majors in home runs. Well … five games in, the White Sox lead the majors with 14 home runs, including Wednesday’s solo shots by Matt Davidson and Jose Abreu, the latter of which proved to be the game winner.

Of course, the aforementioned statement is still true, but there’s no denying the White Sox have been more powerful than one could possible imagine thus far. And it’s not just that the balls are leaving the yard, it’s how they’re leaving. Avisail Garcia’s 481-foot homer Tuesday was the longest by a White Sox hitter in the Statcast era. Yolmer Sanchez — YOLMER SANCHEZ — hit one 442 feet!

Abreu’s power is never going to be a surprise, and when Davidson makes contact and it doesn’t leave the yard, that’s surprising, but even in the current run-scoring environment, the White Sox weren’t particularly dinger-heavy a year ago. The likes of Anderson, Sanchez, and Welington Castillo getting into the act is a welcome sight, for however long it continues.

3. The White Sox bullpen got beat around in Tuesday’s 14-5 loss, but bounced back for four scoreless innings in Wednesday’s win. Sure, Aaron Bummer allowed two inherited runners charged to Fulmer to score, but after he got two outs, the game ended with 3 1/3 hitless frames by Danny Farquhar, Nate Jones, and Joakim Soria.

There’s a lot of volatility in the White Sox bullpen. Bummer and Greg Infante are erratic, and the likes of Farquhar, Soria, and Luis Avilan .. well, there’s a reason the veteran arms were available for very little. Still, after last year’s reliever clearing sale, the fact that the White Sox have any semblance of competence in the middle innings without breaking the bank is pretty impressive.

A team, whether it’s rebuilding or not, could do a lot worse than the Jones-Soria duo in the eighth and ninth innings, and while it’s yet to be determined how the rest will shake out, there’s a lot of upside in the eclectic mix of veterans and guys trying to prove themselves as major league relievers.

4. Oh yeah, back to the play. While it was refreshing to see replay work in what appeared to be correct fashion, and it obviously played out in the White Sox factor, the overturn also overshadowed what was a horrendous play on the basepaths by Castillo. With the bases loaded and one out, the leaping, falling-to-the-ground, initially-called-a catch by Curtis Granderson somehow didn’t turn into a run at first as Castillo didn’t tag up and attempt to score.

It was what amounted to a brain fart that didn’t have an affect on the game’s outcome, but baserunning woes have plagued the White Sox for some time now. Last year, they made 58 outs on the basepaths (doesn’t include pickoffs or caught stealing), which, while not among the worst in the league, was still worse than league average. This year that number is already at four through five games, and doesn’t include blips like Castillo’s.

The flip side of this, of course, is that aggressiveness can beget more runs if executed wisely. Last year, the White Sox were almost exactly average according to BP’s baserunning runs stat, ranking 14th in baseball at -0.1. Stats this year are, of course, far from stabilizing, but it’s maybe worth noting that they’ve taken the extra base on a league-high 67 percent of opportunities through this minuscule sample size after ranking slightly below average in the category a year ago.

There are a lot of noise in these stats, so take them with a grain of salt, but seeing how the White Sox balance aggressiveness with smart baserunning will be something worth watching throughout the season.

5. The White Sox home opener is today, weather pending, with James Shields making his second start of the season against Detroit and Jordan Zimmermann. There will be festivities — including A.J. Pierzynski throwing out the ceremonial first pitch — weather pending.

The Tigers have looked as bad as every expected them to be through five games, going 1-4 against the Pirates and Royals. The White Sox get to play them 19 times this season, so if they have any interest in staying competitive later into the season than anticipated, beating up on this team would be a good way to do so.

Lead Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

It’s important to remember that these decisions aren’t the end-all. Lest we forget, last year the White Sox broke camp with Cody Asche and Jacob May, and nobody except a really smart analyst and exceptional writer had ever even heard of Nicky Delmonico. Remember Jimmy Rollins two years ago? Me neither.

But these decisions do matter, as they’re the culmination of six weeks of observation of the roster by the White Sox staff. We’ll know the answers to these questions soon enough, but why wait?! I have the answers now, and I’m going to tell you what they are. But I’m going to level with you: There’s not a lot of drama.

I’m going to level with you, there’s not a lot of drama. The White Sox decisions amount to this: Will they keep 13 pitchers, if so, which ones, who is the backup catcher, and who is the fifth starter?

At this point, we know the eight starters on the position side. Welington Castillo, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Yolmer Sanchez, Nicky Delmonico, Adam Engel, and Avisail Garcia all seem like locks. If the White Sox go with 13 pitchers, that leaves three bench spots. Setting aside catcher for a second, that leaves two spots for Leury Garcia, Tyler Saladino, and Ryan Cordell.

The White Sox love Leury’s versatility, and his ability to play both the outfield and multiple infield positions will come in handy if they keep 13 pitchers. He’s in. Cordell has certainly played like someone who deserves a roster spot this spring, hitting .342/.444/.553 with more walks than strikeouts in 45 plate appearances. He also hasn’t played since last June, which was before the White Sox acquired him from Milwaukee in exchange for Anthony Swarzak. At 25, he deserves a shot to prove whether or not he belongs in the majors sooner than later, but my guess is the White Sox keep Saladino and Cordell opens the season in Charlotte.

There isn’t a lot of upside in the backup catcher battle, as both Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith have shown competence but limited upside. We are talking about backup catchers, after all, and the presence of Castillo means whoever stays in Chicago will likely only get about a start or two a week, anyway. I give the edge to Narvaez as he’s proved more competent with the bat in more career plate appearances. It honestly doesn’t seem like a very tough decision.

There’s more room for debate in the pitching staff. Rick Renteria expressed confidence in Carson Fulmer even before he rebounded with a decent start on Monday, and with Hector Santiago’s ability to go long innings out of the bullpen or make a spot start, he seems a lock to go from NRI to the 25-man roster. Other bullpen locks seem to be Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, Nate Jones, Juan Minaya, and Danny Farquhar. That leaves two spots, for incumbents Gregory Infante, Aaron Bummer, and Jace Fry, or NRIs Robbie Ross Jr., Jeanmar Gomez, Xavier Cedeno, and a few other long shots.

Infante pitched surprisingly well last season, and maybe belongs in the “lock” category, so he’s in. The other pick is a lot tougher, as Bummer and Fry could maybe use more seasoning in the minors, but the White Sox clearly like both. Handedness isn’t a factor here, either, as Santiago and Avilan already give them two lefties. Given that, the pick is Gomez, with Bummer and Fry starting the season in Charlotte, and guys like Ross and Cedeno possibly sticking around as additional depth.

To recap:

Position players:

C – Castillo
1B – Abreu
2B – Moncada
SS – Anderson
3B – Sanchez
LF – Delmonico
CF – Engel
RF – A. Garcia
DH – Davidson
Bench – Narvaez, L. Garcia, Saladino

Pitchers:

SP – Shields
SP – Giolito
SP – Lopez
SP – Gonzalez
SP – Fulmer
Bullpen: Santiago, Soria, Avilan, Jones, Minaya, Farquhar, Infante, Gomez

Lead Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Carson Fulmer’s latest start on Wednesday — he walked three and allowed seven earned runs, including three home runs, in just 1 2/3 innings — qualifies as something that matters. The 24-year-old has now walked 10 and allowed seven home runs in just 6 2/3 innings this spring, and it’s safe to wonder whether the White Sox presumptive fifth starter heading into the spring may be destined for Triple-A with Opening Day two weeks away.

Fulmer’s performance thus far is such that it would raise an eyebrow if he were an established veteran. He’s not. The 2015 first-round pick had three promising starts in September of last season — two of which came against the two worst teams in the league, and the third against a Cleveland team with nothing to play for — and otherwise struggled. In 126 innings at Triple-A, he walked nearly five batters per nine, allowed 18 home runs, and finished with a 5.79 ERA.

And yet, there’s still always been hope. Despite the fact that Fulmer has never looked dominant in the minors, the White Sox rebuild meant that his advanced profile and strong September were enough for him to presumably warrant a rotation spot. But with all those negative factors taking shape, coupled with the presence of a seemingly healthy and effective Hector Santiago, that may not come to fruition.

For the short-term prospects of the 2018 White Sox and their Opening Day rotation this means very little, but the long-term plan for Fulmer is worth considering. Many scouts saw him as a reliever coming out of the draft, and he hasn’t exactly done much to change that mindset. From BP’s White Sox system write-up, in which he was listed as the team’s No. 10 prospect:

The Bad: The changeup isn’t much to write home about, leaving him overly dependent on throwing fastballs at the front hip of major-league lefties. The curve and cutter don’t seem as tight in the middle innings. The command profile is below-average, and he struggles to throw enough strikes. He’s a shorter, stockier righty with some effort in the delivery, so it all looks like a late-inning reliever on the bump.

 This isn’t to say the White Sox are going to or should give up on Fulmer as a starter. The team’s track record for developing starting pitching is obviously strong, and while 24 and considered a quick-moving starter out of college, it’s possible that a prolonged stretch in the minors without promotion on the horizon will straighten him out. Here’s The Good:

The Good: Fulmer is one of those guys with The Good Stuff™. His fastball generally ranges from 91-95 as a starter, but mostly works at the upper end of that band and it has explosive arm-side movement. At its best he can dominate with just that pitch. Fulmer’s cutter can touch the low-90s and is a potential 7 with hard slider depth when it’s on. He also has an above-average curve that sits in the low-80s with tight 12-6 action. That’s three above-average or better pitches.

It’s certainly possible that Fulmer is a reliever, and if and when the White Sox make that call, it’s also possible he’s a very good reliever. The reality of Fulmer winding up a reliever isn’t as harsh when you consider that ranked ahead of him on the aforementioned Top 10 list are four other starting pitching prospects, and Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez also exist. You obviously want to have as many lottery tickets as possible when building a contention-level rotation, but not all of them are going to pan out, and if Fulmer develops into an elite reliever, well … there are worse outcomes (which are also possible, I guess).

I realize we’re talking about 6 2/3 innings here, but Fulmer’s 6 2/3 bad innings means a lot more than, say, an 0-for-something stretch by Jose Abreu. If the White Sox decide Fulmer needs more seasoning in Triple-A, it’s a logical outcome, and doesn’t mean the end of his prospects as a starting pitcher. But it’s clear, at the very least, that more works is needed before that decision is made.

Lead Photo Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports