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	<title>South Side &#187; Charlie Blackmon</title>
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		<title>The Ghost of Rowand</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/29/the-ghost-of-rowand/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/29/the-ghost-of-rowand/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Jan 2018 15:06:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Schaefer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Pollock]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Rowand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Rios]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian AndersonA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Charlie Blackmon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jim Thome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Robert]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10055</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jim Thome is now a first ballot Hall of Famer.  As Collin pointed out, although Thome will go into the Hall as a Cleveland Indian, his White Sox tenure was still a success and he still feels like Our Guy.  Yes, I am still disproportionately upset the White Sox let him go to the Twins [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jim Thome is now a first ballot Hall of Famer.  As Collin <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/25/jim-thome-isnt-ours-even-if-it-feels-like-it/">pointed out</a>, although Thome will go into the Hall as a Cleveland Indian, his White Sox tenure was still a success and he still feels like Our Guy.  Yes, I am still disproportionately upset the White Sox let him go to the Twins in favor of Mark Kotsay as the mid-2000s era slid into the hated quagmire it would occupy for about a decade, but it is also easy to forget Thome’s arrival was abrupt and jarring.  Only a month after winning the World Series, the White Sox traded hero Aaron Rowand for a former rival who was coming off his worst season, while simultaneously signaling they were jettisoning Frank Thomas.</p>
<p>It was a lot.</p>
<p>Fortunately, Thome did what he could to soften the blow—and Thomas went to Oakland where he destroyed the Twins in the playoffs, the memory of which still brings joy to my petty, petty heart.</p>
<p>Since Rowand was shipped out, however, the White Sox have seemed wholly unable to address center field for any meaningful length of time.  First up was Brian Anderson, who—other than that one random game against Felix Hernandez—just could not hit at all.  When that didn’t work, it prompted all manner of ridiculous and embarrassing scrambling as Jerry Owens, Darin Erstad, Andy Gonzalez, and Luis Terrero were thrown at the problem in 2007.</p>
<p>Sufficiently humiliated, the White Sox sent some, at the time, valuable prospect capital off to Oakland for Nick Swisher.  And while the 2008 squad made the playoffs, Swisher had a low-BABIP season and uh…did not fit in the clubhouse, such that by the end he was being phased out for Dewayne Wise.  Swisher was traded for pennies on the dollar and they were back to the drawing board.*</p>
<p>*<em>The Swisher Saga merits further discussion, so stay tuned for Mark Primiano&#8217;s pending treatise on the topic.</em></p>
<p>2009 saw Brian Anderson back working in a ghastly tandem with Wise where neither hit although they caught stuff most of the time.  This edition also featured the husks of Mark Kotsay and Scott Podsednik getting innings in center. It was so bad the White Sox shocked the league and claimed Alex Rios’ then-ludicrous contract from the Blue Jays off waivers in the hopes of finally solving the problem.</p>
<p>Rios cratered and hit miserably to close out the season, but they thought they’d found their man.  And although the 2010 squad won 88 games—the best mark from 2009 to the present—they were dusted by the Twins.  2010 Rios looked something like what they had hoped for, hitting .284/.334/.457, a massive upgrade on what they’d come to expect from the position.</p>
<p>Then 2011 happened and Rios hit just about as badly as their patchwork of replacement dreck had for years before his arrival.  The Curse of Rowand flexed its muscles once more. Rios’ defense had clearly declined such that he was moved to right, and 2012 saw Alejandro de Aza produce decently on both sides of the ball. He held things down until the acquisition of Adam Eaton.  However, he too quickly looked like he needed to move to a corner.  Unfortunately, that meant center field was manned by a tandem of J.B. Shuck and Austin Jackson as 2016 sank into such despair that the organization finally blew everything up.</p>
<p>All of this brings us to 2018.  As an avid <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/57884/leury-garcia">Leury Garcia</a> fan, he has the capability of covering center adequately, although his optimal deployment would be as the Swiss Army Knife he is, backing up multiple positions and getting 200-400 PAs a year.</p>
<p>To my eye, <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/102578/adam-engel">Adam Engel</a> appears to be in the fine tradition of Wise and Anderson—an athlete who can go and get it in center, but can’t hit a lick.  Even though he was a rookie in 2017, Engel is already 26, has been old at every minor league level, and outside of ~50-something PAs in the Arizona Fall League, has barely hit at any stop before arriving in Chicago.  If he can match his career .741 minor league OPS in the majors, then he’s a second division regular, but it looks like that may be more than he can manage while time is running out.</p>
<p><a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/102553/ryan-cordell">Ryan Cordell</a> is intriguing, but center field is probably more of a once-or-twice a week thing for him rather than a full-time gig. <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/70493/charlie-tilson">Charlie Tilson</a> looked like a potentially solid option, but that was two years, one catastrophic leg injury, and a cavalcade of subsequent setbacks ago.</p>
<p>That’s not to say the next long-term, star (or solid) center fielder isn’t already in the organization.  Indeed, they have a plethora of potential solutions even if you limit yourself to Guys Named Luis.  <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/110664/luis-robert">Luis Robert</a> and <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/103262/luis-alexander-basabe">Luis Alexander Basabe</a> could both wind up as assets there, although even if they pan out, they are likely both at least two years away.  <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/109918/luis-gonzalez">Luis Gonzalez</a> has his fans, although his ceiling and ETA are a step back from Luises One and Two.  <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/101145/tito-polo">Tito Polo</a> looks more like a fourth outfielder, but could also be a solution in 2019 or 2020.</p>
<p>The fact remains, however, should the White Sox fancy themselves contenders in 2019 and 2020, they may not have anything ready for a playoff competitor on time.  The 2018-2019 free agent class is much ballyhooed for the likes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, but it could also be where the White Sox invest in free agency.</p>
<p>Perhaps the White Sox will be positioned to sign a <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/52804/charlie-blackmon">Charlie Blackmon</a> or <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/60932/a.j.-pollock">A.J. Pollock</a> as part of shifting from talent hoarding to actually winning.  And, if so, hopefully whoever it is will be mighty enough to stave off Rowand’s Spectre for a few seasons.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>Photo courtesy of Mark J Rebilas-USA Today Sports Images.</em></p>
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		<title>Leury Garcia: The First Big Find of the Rebuild</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/26/leury-garcia-the-first-big-find-of-the-rebuild/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/26/leury-garcia-the-first-big-find-of-the-rebuild/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 May 2017 05:25:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ryan Schultz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Charlie Blackmon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leury Garcia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Trout]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6279</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Rebuilding has a few very clear consequences. The first is that a majority of the talent in the organization is younger, regardless of the level. The major league roster lowers in age, and the minors become robust with even younger yet more underdeveloped talent. That youth allows for some flexibility in the big leagues. Naturally, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rebuilding has a few very clear consequences. The first is that a majority of the talent in the organization is younger, regardless of the level. The major league roster lowers in age, and the minors become robust with even younger yet more underdeveloped talent. That youth allows for some flexibility in the big leagues. Naturally, the team as constructed is still trying to win ballgames. It&#8217;s the players&#8217; and manager&#8217;s job to keep winning games. What does happen, however, is that fringier prospects are given a chance to run wild and see what happens at the highest level. Sometimes, the results are ugly and appear as extreme tanking efforts. Other times, the results are surprisingly good. Let&#8217;s talk about the good. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57884" target="_blank">Leury Garcia</a> has turned from fringe prospect to valuable major leaguer.</p>
<p>Garcia was acquired by the White Sox from the Texas Rangers in exchange for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31640" target="_blank">Alex Rios</a> in 2013. He was a speedy, small infielder who had played every position on the field except first base. His abilities on the field were highly praised, but his bat didn&#8217;t excite. The White Sox, as they are wont to do, rushed him to the big leagues before he could even have a chance to adjust to more advanced pitching. The team then wisely limited his major league plate appearances in 2015 and 2016.</p>
<p>It appears that decision has payed huge dividends for the White Sox. Despite not even starting the season as a regular starter, Garcia has earned his spot as the starting center fielder. Even more than that, he&#8217;s been one of the best center fielders in all of baseball. Yes, it&#8217;s still a small sample size. But we are fast approaching the end of small sample size warnings with Garcia holding a perfectly sustainable .305 BABIP.</p>
<p>By every WAR metric, Leury has been among the best at his position. He&#8217;s accumulated 1.6 bWAR. If you can believe it, he&#8217;s tied for fourth among all centerfielders — yes, all of them — with 1.3 fWAR. By WARP, he&#8217;s the third best center fielder with 1.3 WARP. Needless to say, he&#8217;s been really good. A lot of that value comes from defense, which each model measures differently. The Fangraphs model likes that he&#8217;s racked up a 2.6 UZR and plus-5 DRS. Here at Baseball Prospectus we use FRAA, which thinks Garcia has accumulated 3.6 fielding runs above average.</p>
<p>That FRAA is why he&#8217;s been able to top everyone but offensive powerhouses <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=52804" target="_blank">Charlie Blackmon</a>. The usual suspects of <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50297" target="_blank">Jarrod Dyson</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100631" target="_blank">Byron Buxton</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59112" target="_blank">Ender Inciarte</a> are the only center fielders who sit above him in the category. While Garcia does fit into the same speedy defender profile that precedes each of those players, he&#8217;s been the best of the group offensively.</p>
<p>The different wins-above-replacement models are dangerous to use because each and every defensive metric is flawed. Knowing that all three of the mainstream metrics agree that Garcia is very good in center tells us enough without having to necessarily quantify it perfectly. Garcia&#8217;s always had a reputation of flashing the leather, though. The real revelation this season has been at the plate.</p>
<p>By purely looking at offense, Garcia remains one of the best center fielders in baseball right now. In wRC+ among qualified hitters he ranks fourth at 125. The only players above him are Trout, Blackmon, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70093" target="_blank">Kevin Pillar</a>. In TAv among qualified hitters he ranks fourth at .284. The same three players rank above him. While Pillar is having a breakout season of his own, the other two players are established stars. Garcia is right there with them. Heck, even by ISO he&#8217;s still sixth among center fielders at .194.</p>
<p>Who knows if this version of Garcia will disappear in a month, after this season, or not for another five years. Right now all signs point toward him continuing to rake. His contact rate is excellent at 85 percent while he&#8217;s managed to keep his approach (swing rates on both pitches in and out of the zone) essentially the same. Perhaps that contact rate will fall a little, but his 13.4 percent strikeout rate and 4.2 percent walk rate aren&#8217;t likely to change.</p>
<p>Rebuilding is centered around the big names, of course. But finding a diamond in the rough because there&#8217;s no pressure to win ballgames can help fill out the depth of a future roster. Right now, Garcia is making the best case to be the center fielder of the future. He&#8217;s just 26 years old and perhaps hitting his prime. The White Sox lack of patience did him in early in his career, but they&#8217;ve made up for it by providing him with enough time to recover from those mistakes.</p>
<p>Now he looks ready to shock the league for a full season, possibly even riding his great first half to an All-Star appearance. That would be a huge win for a White Sox farm system that is sorely lacking in the outfield, despite just adding a big name in Luis Robert. It&#8217;s not easy to find a player up the middle that can contribute on both sides of the ball the way Garcia is right now. Garcia is the real deal, and I&#8217;m not convinced that he plans on stopping his torrid pace.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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