This weekend saw a few significant division rival match ups, and things were flipped upside down rather quickly. During the last iteration of Around The AL Central, (brought to you by our own Collin Whitchurch, whom I will be doing the honors for this week) the division looked like this:

Now, just a short week later and the landscape of the AL Central looks like this:

Yes, you may note that the White Sox are clinging for dear life to their status as an above .500 team, while Detroit finally made the mark. As the White Sox faced the Tigers at Comerica Park this past weekend and the Indians hosted the Royals, both visiting teams got their stuff rocked, for lack of a better term. Let’s take a look at what’s happening now with each team.

INDIANS

For the last few years, the Indians have always been the sleepers in this division, and every year I underrate them, probably due to their lack of star power with the exception of Corey Kluber, but they always tend to sneak up on the Central when we least expect it. That time is now. Their starting staff has the fourth-best ERA in the AL, most of that on the backs of Danny Salazar and Kluber, the latter of which currently has a K/9 rate of 8.92, good for eleventh in the AL, while posting a BB/9 rate of 2.03 (which for the record is higher than both Chris Sale and Jose Quintana). Kluber has struggled stranding runners on this season though, posting just a 66 percent LOB%, fifth-worst in the AL. Salazar holds a 2.24 ERA with a 10.67 K.9. His walk rate is 4.63, but he’s been a bit better than Kluber at keeping the runners on base from scoring and the ball in the yard.

The Indians hosted the Kansas City Royals this weekend for a four-game set, and they sent the Royals off to Baltimore without something that they had come to Progressive Field with — the division lead. The Indians outscored the defending World Champs a whopping 25-6, thanks to a Royals rotation that it seems can only take solace in Danny Duffy lately. The Indians didn’t see Royals closer Wade Davis all weekend after he sat out on Thursday walk-off victory, as no other save situation came up.

The real scoop on the Indians these days though, is that all the good they’re currently doing they’ll likely have to continue doing without Michael Brantley. After Jeff Passan tweeted that the Indians were “seriously concerned” about the state of Brantley’s health, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported Monday that Indians GM Chris Antonetti addressed the situation with a little less trepidation:

Antonetti responded, “Nothing really new. We are focused on working with Michael to help him get to the point where he’s not only healthy…

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 6, 2016

“…but strong enough to make a meaningful impact on the balance of our season. We don’t have a clear timetable for that yet but are …

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 6, 2016

“…encouraged by progress he continues to make.” Keep in mind: Not in #Indians’ interest to admit concern. Would compromise trade leverage.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 6, 2016

Brantley is an important piece of the Indians offense and should he be out for a significant amount of time, it would not only effect of the AL Central race but potentially the outfielder marker at the trade deadline — a front on which the White Sox could be active. I would speculate the situation with Brantley is quite severe, but Antonetti is going to do his best to keep it under his hat for now.

Next up: The Indians are facing the Mariners for a four-game set at Safeco before continuing their West Coast road trip in Anaheim to take on the Angels. They’ll then head back to the Midwest to face the Royals again, this time at Kauffman Stadium for a three-game set to finish out their road trip.

ROYALS

Shell shocked might be a good way to describe how the Royals feel after they were swept this past weekend (The Sox have a sympathy card in the mail). The sweep simply served to underscore the subtle issues their rotation is facing. Or perhaps they’re not so subtle, with the example of Royals starter Chris Young, who gave up four home runs in the fifth inning of Sunday’s contest while struggling with his slider. The Royals  starters currently are 13th in ERA in the AL, with their rotation compiling a less than impressive 4.82 mark so far this season.

Having a strong offense is key, especially when your rotation is scuffling — something the Royals learned the hard way this weekend. The Royals have been victim to a myraid of injuries that has recently plagued their lineup, with the latest addition being third baseman Mike Moustakas, who just underwent season-ending knee surgery. Left fielder Alex Gordon is on the disabled list with a fractured wrist, and catcher Salvador Perez missed six games with a bruised thigh, finally returning to the lineup on Saturday. It goes without saying, that yes, as much as the rotation for the Royals is not the best, being as banged up as they have been has not aided the situation either.

Next Up: A true test of the Royals’ fortitude is quickly approaching. They’re currently taking on the Orioles after the tough series sweep in Cleveland, and will then heading back to the South side of Chicago to take on the White Sox this weekend. After that, they head home to begin a homestand that includes visits from both the Indians and the Tigers. Fasten your seatbelts, Royals fans — it could be a bumpy ride.

TIGERS

Things got ugly in Motown over the weekend for the White Sox as they were swept by the division rival Tigers at Comerica, and the sweep stung especially bad when the White Sox had their three best pitchers in Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Carlos Rodon going for them in each start. All three starters were lit up, Quintana not even making it out of the fifth inning, and things were simply not pretty.

The Tigers are 5-3  since last week, taking one from the Angels before the series sweep of the White Sox. While they may be on a relative hot streak, their rotation is currently the third-worst in the American League. However, that rotation has recently found a bit of salvation with a flash of vintage Justin Verlander on the mound and the emergence of newcomer Michael Fulmer. Fulmer flirted with a no-no recently, and has gone six-plus innings and allowed just one earned run in his last four starts, including holding the Blue Jays scoreless while the Tigers offense posted 11 runs for him. Must be nice! 

The Detroit offense has crept up on us all (especially Toronto last night), and the Tigers are currently tied for the second-best batting average in the league at .271, while also holding onto the third-highest slugging percentage at .447.

Detroit manager Brad Ausmus has recently switched up his lineup by batting center fielder Cameron Maybin second, while bumping J.D. Martinez to the five spot. “He’s getting on base, he has some speed, he can distract the pitcher, he can score on a double from first, he can steal a base,” Ausmus told the media of Maybin “He’s not really the prototypical run-producer. That doesn’t mean he can’t drive in runs… But, the bottom line is if he keeps getting on base, if he keeps having good at-bats in front of Miggy and Victor, and then J.D. behind that, there’s probably no reason to move him.”

The Tigers lineup may be of a more vintage makeup, but with the infusion of some youth, they could end up becoming a significant part of this race quite quickly, with a lot of that depending on how well Fulmer continues to carry himself in the rotation.

Next Up: The Tigers will continue a series at Comerica Park with the Blue Jays, and then head off on a road trip that will have them face the Yankees, the White Sox, and finally the Royals for four games. 

TWINS

Is this really even necessary? They’re winning percentage is below .300 and they’re just sort of hanging out until next year — or maybe even the year after that. It’s okay Twins, you’ll always have 2009 and 2010!

With a ton of inter-divisional matchups on the upcoming schedules for these teams, the AL Central is going through some interesting changes, and it’s truly still anyone’s race this early in the season.

The addition of James Shields that the White Sox made over the weekend should help to solidify the back end of the rotation that was so deeply in question, potentially helping keep them  in the race, but they’ll will need to step up the offense to aid the rotation and relieve some of the stress off the bullpen in order to truly feel comfortable as contenders. Shields’ first start will come Wednesday at U.S. Cellular Field against Max Scherzer and the Nationals. Challenge accepted.

Lead photo courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Back end pitchers also play enough of a role to matter during the course of a 162-game season. Last year, the White Sox played 67 games that were started by someone other than their presumed Top 3 pitchers going into the season (Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Jeff Samardzija). Or more specifically, they accounted for 26 percent of the total innings completely by White Sox pitchers in 2015.

Granted, not every back end starter is cut from the same cloth. Using the White Sox as the most obvious example, Carlos Rodon being your fourth or fifth starter in 2015 is much, much different from John Danks. Looking across the division at Detroit, Daniel Norris at the back end of the rotation is much different than Mike Pelfrey. Likewise, the guys who aren’t necessarily expected to be counted on as more than a back end starter who eats innings at the beginning of the year can sometimes ascend (Esteban Loaiza always comes to mind, for some reason), and guys who start the year as a potential key cog in a rotation can fall off drastically (Hello again, Mr. Samardzija).

Keeping all these caveats in mind, let’s try to get an idea of where the back end of the White Sox rotation stacks up compared to those of their AL Central rivals. Most teams have their rotations basically set at this point in Spring Training, but understanding how incredibly rare it is for a team to use as few as five starters during the season, we’ll look at the projected Nos. 4 and 5 starters for each team, as well as guys who won’t necessarily start the season with the big league club, but have a good chance to start at some point during the season because of injury or performance.

White Sox

Probably most of the work: John Danks, Mat Latos

Other possibilities: Scott Carroll, Erik Johnson, Chris Beck, Carson Fulmer, Jacob Turner

Of the pitchers we’re going to go over, there’s only one pitcher PECOTA actually likes more than Latos, who is projected to be worth 1 WARP and have an ERA in the low 4.00s. The question with Latos, of course, is health, and that’s where the other guys come in.

We pretty much know at this point what to expect out of Danks at this point. Unless Dioner Navarro’s pitch-tipping discovery was truly a revelation, Danks will continue to be a guy who eats innings and occasionally gets hammered. But if Latos can’t stay healthy, the White Sox will depend on a mixture of guys who have struggled to find success during their respective brief major league careers.

Carroll, Johnson, and Beck and Turner to a lesser extent, are all guys who shouldn’t kill you with a spot start or two here and there, but Latos’ ability to stay healthy and be effective enough to remain in the rotation is rather important.

The wild card here is Fulmer, who some believe could join the rotation as early as May or June. In the very good chance that someone ahead of him falters, his ascent could give the White Sox a big boost.

Indians

Probably most of the work: Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin

Other possibilities: Cody Anderson, T.J. House

At 31, one has to wonder if Tomlin’s impressive work in 65 innings in 2015 is truly a sign that he’s fully recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2012 and even better than he was prior to that, but PECOTA seems to think so, as he’s projected to be worth more WARP than any other pitcher currently pegged for the Nos. 4 and 5 spots in their respective rotations.

Between Bauer — a former top prospect who has shown flashes of brilliance but continues to be erratic and inconsistent, and Tomlin if he’s as good as he could be, the Indians likely have the best back end options of any team in the AL Central. Where things get dicey is what comes if either guy falters or suffers injury. House and Anderson, like the White Sox group of mediocrity, are fine in a pinch, but depth is lacking here. After those two, there isn’t a whole lot to fall back on, and unlike the rest of the teams in the division, there’s no youngster close to major league-ready who could break through.

Luckily for the Indians, they arguable have the best pitching staff in the division. It’s just the depth that is lacking.

Tigers

Probably most of the work: Daniel Norris, Mike Pelfrey

Other possibilities: Shane Greene, Kyle Ryan, Michael Fulmer, Matt Boyd

Detroit’s pitching depth will be tested right off the bat this season, as promising youngster Norris will begin the season on the disabled list. Greene seems most likely to get the fifth slot in the rotation in his absence, and after impressing despite being thrust into duty with the 2014 Yankees, he fell back down to earth last season after a trade brought him to Detroit.

Most of Detroit’s depth is relatively untested at the major league level, as Ryan has gained a spot start or two during 66 career innings across two seasons, and Boyd, while still only 25, was really, really bad in spot start duties with both Detroit and Toronto a year ago.

The only non-youngster of the bunch is Pelfrey, who was surprisingly competent in Minnesota a year ago after a variety of injuries — including Tommy John surgery back in 2012 — limited him to 37 starts from 2012-14. If he holds up, he should be a constant in the back end of Detroit’s rotation, eating innings and pitching to contact. He is Detroit’s Danks.

Fulmer — the other Fulmer — is like the White Sox’s version, a wild card. After being acquired from the Mets in last season’s Yoenis Cespedes deal, he immediately became the best prospect in Detroit’s moribund system and could see the majors this year. Between Fulmer and Norris, Detroit has a pair of young arms to be excited about.

Twins

Probably most of the work: Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco

Other possibilities: Tyler Duffey, J.R. Graham, Taylor Rogers, Jose Berrios

I believe Ethan Spalding put it best when it comes to the Twins and their pitching staff:

the Twins pitching dev is obviously a front for a top secret cloning op but why did they choose to clone Brad Radke instead of Johan Santana

— Ethan Spalding (@SpaldingBalls) March 29, 2016

It’s true that the Twins’ rotation is filled with mediocrity. The fact that the back end of the rotation isn’t much less impressive than the top guys isn’t a good sign for the team as a whole, but that they’re loaded with guys who eat innings, stay healthy and keep them in games is at least somewhat nice. Milone and Nolasco are basically interchangeable in that regard, but if Duffey slips into the fifth starter role at some point he may be a nice change.

While his profile doesn’t portend a lot of strikeouts, the 25-year-old did strike out 8.2 batters per nine innings, but he also walked his fair share. He’s likely a swingman long-term, but the Twins would be well served to give him and fellow 25-year-old Rogers a look if they fall out of the race early.

Those two, along with the aforementioned veteran inning eaters, are of course just holding the place of 21-year-old flamethrower Berrios, who in reality you should’t expect to see until September. The five guys listed before Berrios won’t be the problem with the 2016 Twins, it’ll likely be the lack of a dominant arm at the front of the rotation.

Royals

Probably most of the work: Kris Medlen, Chris Young

Other possibilities: Danny Duffy, Mike Minor, Kyle Zimmer, Chien-Ming Wang

The defending champions have, on paper, the weakest backend of the rotation in the division. Medlen, who is kept together by pins and needles at this point, was a solid reliever for most of 2015 after finally recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, while Young rode some good BABIP luck to good results in 2015 before falling apart late. In fact, Young is the only player mentioned on this list who PECOTA projects to be worth a negative amount in 2016.

Royals Devil Magic could strike once again, but if Medlen’s body falters and Young can’t produce, what’s left?

The most likely candidate to get innings in that scenario is Duffy, who outpitched his peripherals in 2014 before falling back to earth a season ago. Duffy is a fine back end of the rotation option who the Royals would probably be better off using over Young at this point, but after that things get very dicey. Minor hasn’t pitched since 2014 and will begin the season on the 60-day DL, and I’m just as surprised as you are to see Wang still hanging around.

Zimmer, much like the law firm of Fulmer & Fulmer, could be a game-changer for Kansas City, however, and may be closer to making his major league debut than either of them. If he does, and one of the Medlen/Young/Duffy trio proves capable, the Royals will be fine.

Summary

OK, so what we just looked at proves something that may be rather obvious: that the back end of the rotation isn’t always very pretty. However, while the raw numbers of these guys aren’t pretty, it’s clear that having a number of pitchers who won’t murder your team’s chances of winning every time they step on the mound is as important as ever, especially with starters throwing fewer innings than ever before in major league history.

The White Sox rolling with Danks and Latos at the start of the season seems fine, especially when you compare them to their division rivals. Those two and the rest eating up innings while Sale, Quintana and Rodon do all the heavy lifting will be an important factor in the team’s success in 2016.

Top Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports