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	<title>South Side &#187; David Robertson</title>
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		<title>White Sox Season in Review: The Trade Players (and Derek Holland)</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/03/season-in-review-the-trade-players-and-derek-holland/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/03/season-in-review-the-trade-players-and-derek-holland/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Nov 2017 01:35:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ryan Schultz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Season in Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Swarzak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dan Jennings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derek Holland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Quintana]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melky Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Miguel Gonzalez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Todd Frazier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tommy Kahnle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Clippard]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7760</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Melky Cabrera — In a season where favorite players were traded away left and right, Cabrera may have been the saddest of all the departures. He doesn’t have the same deep emotional attachment that Quintana bore, but he was just a whole lot of fun to watch play baseball. In every move it was apparent that [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45397" target="_blank">Melky Cabrera</a> — In a season where favorite players were traded away left and right, Cabrera may have been the saddest of all the departures. He doesn’t have the same deep emotional attachment that Quintana bore, but he was just a whole lot of fun to watch play baseball. In every move it was apparent that he was having fun out there. While he didn’t quite have the same success in 2017 that he did in 2016 at the plate, he was still a pretty good hitter. He slashed .285/.324/.423 over the course of the season, which helped Chicago market him to a team that was begging for anyone that could play in the corner.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45514" target="_blank">Tyler Clippard</a> — Clippard served as the awkward throw-in of one of the White Sox’ biggest trades this season. He was sent to Chicago along with three prospects, which made him a very certain outlier. At first blush it seemed like he was included to merely cover innings for a team that was trading away two of their best relievers at once. When he was traded to the Astros almost exactly a month later, it was clear his inclusion in the inital trade was merely to balance out salaries. It’s hard to say whether the team planned to flip him all along or his strong performance (10 IP, 2 ER) ignited interest from other teams. Regardless of the why, Clippard was in a White Sox uniform for merely an uninteresting month of the season.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53395" target="_blank">Todd Frazier</a> — Frazier was one of the many White Sox players belonging to the group of last ditch players from the era of the team piecing things together in hopes of finding something that worked. He spent a season and a half with the team, showing power in 2016 and nothing of great significance in 2017. The team was forced to package him with two strong relievers to get a team to bite, and he went on to find a leadership role with a Yankees team that was just one win away from the AL pennant.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47476" target="_blank">Miguel Gonzalez</a> — One of the big stories of the 2015 season was the massive failure of the Jeff Samardzija acquisition. There was absolutely no chemistry between Don Cooper and Samardzija, causing concerns about Cooper to ripple through the White Sox fanbase and baseball world. If it’s even fair to say there was a revival of Cooper’s reputation, it came in 2016 when Gonzalez went from throwaway player on the Orioles to one of the White Sox best pitchers. The 2017 was much rockier for Gonzalez, who battled injuries in the early part of the season. His 4.62 ERA on the season certainly wasn’t great, but he was effective while in Chicago. He weaved his way through hard contact left and right to make himself a trade asset in August, which helped the White Sox gain even more young talent in quantity even if not in quality.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56468" target="_blank">Derek Holland</a> — Holland always seemed like a great fit for the 2017 White Sox. He was a free agent whose price tag was greatly reduced by injury concerns, but if he was healthy he could easily provide a multitude of innings at at least a passable quality. That was a perfect fit for a team in the very early stages of rebuilding, and if the team got lucky he could have been a trade target by July. Instead things went horribly wrong, and Holland was cut from the roster before the season ended. His 6.20 ERA and 4.6 percent strikeout minus walk rate was not a site to behold, and as the summer came to an end his starts seemed to get worse and worse. The pitcher who appeared to be a solid signing with plenty of potential turned out to be a dud.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58318" target="_blank">Dan Jennings</a> — Jennings appeared in 77 games this season, which was good enough to put him tied for third in all of baseball among relievers. Perhaps it was the frequency with which Jennings was used that caused the Rays to show interest at the deadline. At the time they were certainly contenders for at least a Wild Card spot, if not within reach of the division title. With limited resources financially and within their system, they were forced to go bargain shopping. It’s hard to say why or how they landed on Jennings, but the fact remains that he was the guy they wanted. The White Sox were happy to oblige as they handed out bullpen arms like candy on Halloween throughout the months of July and August, and in return got <a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103739" target="_blank">Casey Gillaspie</a>, a prospect who is flawed but interesting enough to more than justify the trade.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67028" target="_blank">Tommy Kahnle</a> — Kahnle and his morbidly huge thighs stepped out of nowhere and into our world in 2017. Before this season he was merely a fireballer who couldn’t find the strike zone, hardly a rare breed in this day and age of baseball. All it took for him to take off, as is the case for so many relievers, was a bit of command. He was able to establish the fastball early in counts and blow hitters away with his devastating changeup. The White Sox could have held out to squeeze more value from what seemed to be a very good reliever, but the general principle of selling high on relievers whenever you can is a good one. Kahnle went on to be a crucial part of the powerful Yankees bullpen, making strong and important appearances in a multitude of postseason games.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57235" target="_blank">David Robertson</a> — Robertson, like Frazier, was part of the team’s last ditch effort at contention over the last couple seasons. With contention out of the picture and Robertson still a valuable bullpen arm with a large salary commitment through 2018, the White Sox decided it was time to part with him. His value was neither at an all-time high nor all-time low, but when he was packaged with Kahnle and Frazier the return was at the very least a couple players of interest.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46761" target="_blank">Anthony Swarzak</a> — During most seasons you would be hard-pressed to find a reliever that came more out of nowhere to find success than Kahnle. However, in 2017 Swarzak did exactly that. The White Sox gave him a minor league deal, converted him to the bullpen and saw immediate success. He started the season on fire and finished with a 2.33 ERA and 30 percent strikeout rate. With Swarzak only signed on for the single season, it was an even easier decision to send him away to a contender. He landed in Milwaukee, where the Brewers were trying to keep themselves in the playoff race.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51645" target="_blank">Jose Quintana</a> — The most inevitable trade of the season was one involving Quintana. It was a shock, however, to see him sent to the other side of town. Despite struggling in the early parts of the season, he rebounded enough to convince teams that confidence in his past performance was enough to warrant sending prospects to the South Side. His departure was the saddest of the season from a rooting standpoint, but it sent the most exciting prospects the other way. Suddenly a White Sox system that still seemed arm-heavy had one of the best hitting prospects in baseball along with another high-ceiling pitcher. Seeing Quintana go after so many years of improbable success was unfortunate, but it was a huge step in the right direction for the White Sox rebuilding efforts.</span></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>South Side Morning 5: The White Sox are very bad</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/23/south-side-morning-5-the-white-sox-are-very-bad/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/23/south-side-morning-5-the-white-sox-are-very-bad/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Jul 2017 04:09:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ryan Schultz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Side Morning 5]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eloy Jimenez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Quintana]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reynaldo Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tommy Kahnle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zack Collins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6665</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1. The White Sox spent the weekend in lovely Kansas City, stewing in triple-digit weather as they got swept by the Royals. Those three losses make it nine in a row for a White Sox team that truly looks like it&#8217;s tanking. Just as was predicted at the start of the season, the team wouldn&#8217;t lose [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. The White Sox spent the weekend in lovely Kansas City, stewing in triple-digit weather as they got swept by the Royals. Those three losses make it nine in a row for a White Sox team that truly looks like it&#8217;s tanking. Just as was predicted at the start of the season, the team wouldn&#8217;t lose all that many games when they still held onto pieces like <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51645" target="_blank">Jose Quintana</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53395" target="_blank">Todd Frazier</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57235" target="_blank">David Robertson</a>. That mostly held up. What was also predicted at the start of the season was that the White Sox would truly look like a tanking team when each of those players was sent packing at or before the deadline. That has also held up. The White Sox lost two crucial members of their bullpen in a trade that was entirely a good move. The downside is that they have struggled mightily without them. The last time the White Sox won a game it was started by Quintana and saved by Robertson.</p>
<p>2. The White Sox pitching staff has, predictably, become much worse since the departures of Quintana, Robertson, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67028" target="_blank">Tommy Kahnle</a>. Those three were arguably the best three pitchers on the roster, so it&#8217;s natural that their departure would have lasting impacts on the team they left behind. Quintana has only been gone from the team for 10 days now, but since his departure the longest outing by a White Sox starter has been six innings. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47476" target="_blank">Miguel Gonzalez</a> has done it once, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=42750" target="_blank">James Shields</a> has done it once.</p>
<p>Things are bound to get even uglier when fatigue sets in for both the rotation and the bullpen. Gonzalez has been unimpressive, Shields has shown flashes of his poor 2016 self, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70883" target="_blank">Carlos Rodon</a> has battled control issues since arriving back in Chicago. That&#8217;s going to be taxing for the bullpen, which just lost two of the relievers they leaned on the heaviest. Robertson and Kahnle threw more pitches for the White Sox than everyone but <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=99939" target="_blank">Chris Beck</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46761" target="_blank">Anthony Swarzak</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58318" target="_blank">Dan Jennings</a>. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45514" target="_blank">Tyler Clippard</a> was supposed to alleviate some of that burden, but he&#8217;s thrown just one-third of an inning in two games while allowing three hits and an earned run. The team will have to get creative with how they handle the remainder of the innings needed in 2017 while keeping in mind that they don&#8217;t want to burn any of the young arms.</p>
<p>3. One young arm that could be on his way to Chicago in the near future is <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=101728" target="_blank">Reynaldo Lopez</a>. While his future as a starter still hangs in the balance, he&#8217;s already shown an ability to make some starts at the big league level (with Washington in 2016) and is having a fine season in Charlotte. In his last nine starts, he&#8217;s posted an ERA of 3.23, which includes one stinker of a game where he allowed six earned runs and four walks. In those last nine starts he&#8217;s walked more than two batters just that one time while striking out six or more five times, including two different outings with double digit strikeouts. He&#8217;s looked really good, which should be a sign that the White Sox are ready to give him the call. They&#8217;re right to be patient, of course, but he seems like a pitcher that is ready to make that next step. It may not be before his next start, but it seems like his time in Charlotte is coming to a close.</p>
<p>4. Another prospect who has been lighting it up as of late is newly acquired <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104176" target="_blank">Eloy Jimenez</a>. On Sunday he went 5-for-6 with two doubles and a home run. He&#8217;s had just 31 at-bats with the Dash, but he&#8217;s managed to hit seven extra base hits. His 19.7 percent strikeout rate this season indicates that he&#8217;s not whiffing or getting fooled all that often. In fact, his 10.8 percent walk rate seems to point toward some excellent discipline at the plate. This is all scouting the stat line, of course, but it&#8217;s certainly not a bad thing to see a top 10 prospect getting the desired results. It seems like it&#8217;s only a matter of time before he departs the crowded outfield of Winston-Salem for the bright, shiny Double-A ballpark in Birmingham.</p>
<p>5. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=107646" target="_blank">Zack Collins</a> is a prospect with less desirable results than Lopez or Jimenez. Despite being drafted as a bat-first prospect, Collins has stalled in High-A, a level that a player his age should have no problem with. There is of course the notion that catching prospects develop at different paces with different parts of their game taking a back seat at different times, which the lovely James Fegan mentioned in his <a href="https://theathletic.com/77863/2017/07/23/zack-collins-hits-homers-and-throws-out-baserunners-but-what-kind-of-prospect-is-he/">excellent article about Collins</a>. Even being generous towards Collins in that regard, the failure to hit at such a low level is a concern. If he&#8217;s unable to put things together the White Sox could have a failed pick at the top of the draft on their hands. The good news, however, is that the team has built enough prospect depth to withstand such a thing. It is also far too early to give up on a player like Collins, but the clock keeps ticking and he does keep getting older with each passing second. The concern is there, but the alarm bells aren&#8217;t quite ringing yet.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Denny Medley-USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>The Catbird Speaks 7.21.17 &#8211; Another trade, Moncada&#8217;s promotion, and more</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/21/the-catbird-speaks-7-21-17-another-trade-moncadas-promotion-and-more/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Jul 2017 20:30:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blake Rutherford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lucas Giolito]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Yankees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reynaldo Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Todd Frazier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tommy Kahnle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoan Moncada]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6660</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch (@cowhitchurch) and Nick Schaefer (@Nick_BPSS) got together to react to the latest White Sox trade as well as the promotion of heralded prospect Yoan Moncada. Among the talking points: -The return for Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle. -The high difference of opinions on Blake Rutherford. -Whether trading Kahnle was the right [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Collin Whitchurch (<a href="http://www.twitter.com/cowhitchurch" target="_blank">@cowhitchurch</a>) and Nick Schaefer (<a href="http://www.twitter.com/nick_bpss" target="_blank">@Nick_BPSS</a>) got together to react to the latest White Sox trade as well as the promotion of heralded prospect Yoan Moncada. Among the talking points:</p>
<ul>
<li>-The return for Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle.</li>
<li>-The high difference of opinions on Blake Rutherford.</li>
<li>-Whether trading Kahnle was the right thing to do.</li>
<li>-Any other trades likely? Does anyone want Melky Cabrera?</li>
<li>-The insanely mediocre American League Central</li>
<li>-Yoan Moncada&#8217;s promotion and what to watch from him the rest of the season</li>
<li>-Other prospects who might get called up this season. Reynaldo Lopez? Lucas Giolito?</li>
</ul>
<p>Also be sure to check out <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/18/white-sox-send-frazier-robertson-kahnle-to-yankees-moncada-called-up/" target="_blank">our summary of Wednesday&#8217;s deal</a>, as well as <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32322" target="_blank">BP&#8217;s transaction analysis</a>. You can also read a more in depth take on <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/21/the-kahnle-trade-from-beckham-to-blake/" target="_blank">the decision to trade Kahnle</a> by Ryan Schultz, and Collin&#8217;s <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/20/yoan-moncadas-hitless-debut-somehow-still-impressive/" target="_blank">closer look at Moncada&#8217;s White Sox debut</a>. Follow us on Twitter <a href="http://www.twitter.com/bpsouthside" target="_blank">@BPSouthSide</a>.</p>
<p>You can subscribe to this podcast on iTunes by searching for &#8220;The Catbird Speaks.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>White Sox send Frazier, Robertson, Kahnle to Yankees; Moncada called up</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/18/white-sox-send-frazier-robertson-kahnle-to-yankees-moncada-called-up/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Jul 2017 04:49:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Breaking News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blake Rutherford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ian Clarkin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Yankees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tito Polo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Todd Frazier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tommy Kahnle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Clippard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoan Moncada]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6626</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After a long night in which news slowly seeped out via Twitter over the course of the White Sox 1-0 loss to Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, the White Sox announced a blockbuster trade with the New York  Yankees that sent Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle to New York for prospects Blake Rutherford, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After a long night in which news slowly seeped out via Twitter over the course of the White Sox 1-0 loss to <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49786" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a> and the Dodgers, the White Sox announced a blockbuster trade with the New York  Yankees that sent <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53395" target="_blank">Todd Frazier</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57235" target="_blank">David Robertson</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67028" target="_blank">Tommy Kahnle</a> to New York for prospects <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=109054" target="_blank">Blake Rutherford</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=101610" target="_blank">Ian Clarkin</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=101145" target="_blank">Tito Polo</a>, and major league reliever <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45514" target="_blank">Tyler Clippard</a>.</p>
<p>Concurrent with the trade, general manager Rick Hahn also announced that heralded top prospect <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105432" target="_blank">Yoan Moncada</a> would make his debut with the team Wednesday.</p>
<p>Rutherford is the headliner here as far as the return. The 18th overall pick in last year&#8217;s draft was often linked to the White Sox in the weeks leading up to the draft. He was considered arguably the most polished high school hitter in that class, but fell because of bonus demands and a ceiling that isn&#8217;t considered quite as high as those who went ahead of him. <a href="https://twitter.com/greg_goldstein1/status/887500485330173952" target="_blank">As BP&#8217;s Greg Goldstein put it on Twitter</a>, he has a solid all-around game but no standout tool. He&#8217;s an outfielder who&#8217;s played a lot of center early in his career but is likely going to be destined for a corner long term. He was No. 49 in <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160" target="_blank">BP&#8217;s Preseason Top 101</a> but didn&#8217;t make the recently released <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32224" target="_blank">Midseason Top 50</a>, however, he&#8217;s ranked as highly as No. 30 on <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects" target="_blank">MLB Pipeline&#8217;s Top 100</a>, and was No. 36 on <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#t2M1LOV6S05Mzwol.97" target="_blank">Baseball America&#8217;s Midseason Top 100</a>.</p>
<p>Clarkin is a left-hander who was a first round pick in 2013 and has yet to pitch above A-ball, primarily because of injuries. Entering this season he&#8217;s thrown only 178 innings in his career, but he&#8217;s had modest success in High-A through 75 innings thus far in 2017. Polo is a 22-year-old outfielder originally signed by Pirates in 2012 who came over to the Yankees for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49832" target="_blank">Ivan Nova</a> last summer. He was on Colombia&#8217;s World Baseball Classic team this spring, and has split time between High-A and Double-A with the Yankees this season. He was not in their system&#8217;s Top 30, per MLB Pipeline.</p>
<p>The final piece is Clippard, who is decidedly not a prospect. The 32-year-old veteran has a 4.95 ERA with the Yankees in 2017 and is a free agent after this season. He was likely included solely to help balance out the salaries (the Yankees are taking on the entirety of the money owed to Frazier and Robertson), and to eat some innings for the Sox for the rest of this season.</p>
<p>Frazier and Robertson being traded wasn&#8217;t a surprise, but packaging the two together, in addition to Kahnle, was a bit of a shocker. Kahnle&#8217;s trade value had obviously increased exponentially since the start of the season and there had been some debate as to whether or not he was worth trading at peak value or hanging onto as a present and potentially future bullpen asset. Hahn said in a press conference Tuesday that the trade wouldn&#8217;t have happened without the addition of Kahnle, and given the volatility of relievers, as well as the suddenness of his ascension, it&#8217;s tough to blame the White Sox for selling highly.</p>
<p>Combining those trades with the call-up of Moncada (as well as reliever <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103378" target="_blank">Brad Goldberg</a>; sorry for overshadowing you, Brad!) is a logical choice as Moncada can take Frazier&#8217;s place on the infield at second base with <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66288" target="_blank">Yolmer Sanchez</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66662" target="_blank">Tyler Saladino</a> now splitting time at third base. It will be important, of course, to temper expectations as he adjusts to the majors once again after an extremely small trial last September.</p>
<p>Lead Photo Credit: Kelley L. Cox / USA Today Sports Images</p>
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		<title>South Side Morning 5: Jose Quintana Falls Off A Cliff</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/25/south-side-morning-5-jose-quintana-falls-off-a-cliff/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 25 May 2017 07:26:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Side Morning 5]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arizona Diamondbacks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Abreu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Quintana]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leury Garcia]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6262</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1. Jose Quintana&#8217;s performance in Wednesday&#8217;s 8-6 loss to the Diamondbacks is tough to figure out. His first three innings were perfect — zero baserunners, five strikeouts. He seemed well on his way to his second straight stellar outing, third straight quality start, and putting all of his early season struggles to bed for good. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51645" target="_blank">Jose Quintana&#8217;s</a> performance in Wednesday&#8217;s 8-6 loss to the Diamondbacks is tough to figure out. His first three innings were perfect — zero baserunners, five strikeouts. He seemed well on his way to his second straight stellar outing, third straight quality start, and putting all of his early season struggles to bed for good. And this one coming against the team with the third highest team OPS in the majors.</p>
<p>And then he fell off a cliff.</p>
<p>What happened over the next two innings resulted in Quintana&#8217;s worst result of the year — 4 1/3 innings of work, eight earned runs, and an ERA almost a full run higher than what he started the day with.</p>
<p>Quintana&#8217;s performance, to put it simply, comes down to location. Take a look at where Kevan Smith sets up and ends up on a couple of the Diamondbacks&#8217; key hits (click the image to make it bigger):</p>
<p><strong>Fourth inning: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=69508" target="_blank">Nick Ahmed</a> double on 92 mph fastball</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.36.16-AM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6263" src="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.36.16-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-05-25 at 12.36.16 AM" width="958" height="499" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.36.40-AM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6264" src="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.36.40-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-05-25 at 12.36.40 AM" width="953" height="499" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Fourth inning: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59307" target="_blank">Paul Goldschmidt</a> double on 92 mph fastball</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.37.08-AM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6265" src="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.37.08-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-05-25 at 12.37.08 AM" width="957" height="504" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.37.21-AM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6266" src="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.37.21-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-05-25 at 12.37.21 AM" width="958" height="501" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Fifth inning: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=99963" target="_blank">Jake Lamb</a> home run on 91 mph fastball</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.39.49-AM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6268" src="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.39.49-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-05-25 at 12.39.49 AM" width="959" height="501" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.40.16-AM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6269" src="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-25-at-12.40.16-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-05-25 at 12.40.16 AM" width="956" height="502" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Quintana has never had overwhelming stuff, instead finding success with pinpoint precision, and he missed badly on these three key Arizona hits and a few others during those disastrous two innings. His strikeout numbers come from mixing speeds and hitting his spots, and when he&#8217;s not placing his fastball with consistency, good hitters feast.</p>
<p>The good news is that struggles based on command seem more fixable than if, say, his velocity were dipping or his offspeed stuff wasn&#8217;t breaking. <a href="http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-white-sox/jose-quintana-rocked-white-sox-swept-diamondbacks" target="_blank">And his teammates seem to realize this</a>.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px"><em>“For us it’s also a tough thing to figure because he has been so great in his career,” first baseman Jose Abreu said through an interpreter. “It’s something that we are not accustomed to seeing from him. But he’s a hard worker and we all know how talented he is and we’re all confident in him. I think it’s just a matter of one thing for him to clean it up and to be that Jose Quintana that we know.”</em></p>
<p>Quintana&#8217;s issues are concerning, but while the two terrible innings against the Diamondbacks show what happens when he&#8217;s at his worst, his start against Seattle and the first three innings Wednesday show he <em>can </em>still be dominant when he&#8217;s commanding his fastball.</p>
<p>Why he&#8217;s not consistently doing so right now is a mystery. But the talent is still there. Hopefully he finds it soon.</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102005" target="_blank">Jose Abreu</a> has been murdering baseballs lately. After going 4-for-5 with a home run Wednesday, he&#8217;s up to .291/.347/.531, and has five multi-hit days in his last eight games. Among American League first basemen, he ranks third in home runs and OPS, trailing only <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51804" target="_blank">Logan Morrison</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58012" target="_blank">Yonder Alonso</a> <em>(what?) </em>and is second in WARP behind only Alonso <em>(what?).</em></p>
<p>Abreu&#8217;s been known to put together long streaks both hot and cold throughout his career. But since a slow first couple of weeks, Abreu has mostly been the hitter we&#8217;ve come to know over these four years and even better than a year ago. His ISO and TAv are both as high as they&#8217;ve been since his rookie season, and his wRC+ is on par with his 2015 season.</p>
<p>In observing this, the mind obviously wanders in the direction of trade value, particularly when the White Sox other positional trade targets (<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53395" target="_blank">Todd Frazier</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45397" target="_blank">Melky Cabrera</a>) aren&#8217;t doing much to help their trade value. The problem is finding potential partners for a first baseman, as there aren&#8217;t many contenders in need of one.</p>
<p>This isn&#8217;t a real problem as watching Abreu hit is flat-out fun. And while his departure would make sense if the White Sox were to get a trade package they found suitable, if would be unfortunate, at least the eyes of this observer, because Abreu is so damn easy to root for. If he gets traded, it would be a logical mood, but if he sticks around and mashes all season long, that&#8217;d be pretty cool, too.</p>
<p>3. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57884" target="_blank">Leury Garcia</a> went 2-for-4 with his sixth home run of the season in Wednesday&#8217;s loss, and Nick Schaefer continues to look smarter and smarter. We talked about Garcia&#8217;s improved hit tool recently, but we&#8217;re now more than a quarter of the way through the season and he ranks behind only <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59432" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=52804" target="_blank">Charlie Blackmon</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47202" target="_blank">Lorenzo Cain</a> in WARP among center fielders. You know that <em>what? </em>I mentioned earlier about Alonso and Morrison? Garcia going from fringe major league utility player to above-average center fielder blows that out of the water.</p>
<p>And as surprising as his offensive production has been, his defense in center has been equally impressive, as he ranks behind only <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50297" target="_blank">Jarrod Dyson</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100631" target="_blank">Byron Buxton</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59112" target="_blank">Ender Inciarte</a> in FRAA among center fielders.</p>
<p>This continues to make very little sense, and there&#8217;s still a lot of season left, but while Garcia will still likely level off at some point as the season progresses, he seems like a completely different player. And it&#8217;s a very welcomed development.</p>
<p>4. While <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46761" target="_blank">Anthony Swarzak</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67028" target="_blank">Tommy Kahnle</a> have been the surprises of the bullpen thus far this season, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57235" target="_blank">David Robertson</a> looks as sharp as we&#8217;ve seen him in a White Sox uniform. And in terms of players improving or at least holding steady their trade value, he&#8217;s done as well as anyone.</p>
<p>After a two strikeout inning Wednesday, Robertson is up to 24 strikeouts in 17 innings on the season, and both his K% and BB% have returned to what he was known for prior to his rough 2016 season.</p>
<p>Rumors regarding Robertson and a potential deal to the Nationals persist, and while that will continue to make sense, bullpen needs among contenders will only grow as July 31 nears. Robertson remains the most likely player to be traded on the White Sox roster.</p>
<p>5. Wednesday concluded a 10-game west coast stretch where the White Sox swung through Los Angeles, Seattle, and Arizona without a day off, and are off Thursday before a doubleheader and four-game home series against the Tigers.</p>
<p>The White Sox went 3-7 during this stretch, sandwiching a 3-of-4 victory over the Mariners between being swept by both the Angels and Diamondbacks. They&#8217;ve played 16 of their 45 games at home, far and away the fewest in baseball thus far (Cleveland has played the second fewest at 19). But regardless of that, they seem to be pretty well settling into the level of mediocrity we expected this season.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Which White Sox Will Take His Talents to South Beach?</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/18/which-white-sox-will-take-his-talents-to-south-beach/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 18 May 2017 15:04:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ryan Schultz]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Swarzak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Avisail Garcia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Abreu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leury Garcia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tommy Kahnle]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6205</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s not even June yet. The All-Star Game is scheduled for mid-July. And yet, I&#8217;m already pondering who will be the White Sox representative in Miami. Now that the All-Star Game doesn&#8217;t have an actual effect on games played in October, it&#8217;s much easier to have fun with the fact that each team must have [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s not even June yet. The All-Star Game is scheduled for mid-July. And yet, I&#8217;m already pondering who will be the White Sox representative in Miami. Now that the All-Star Game doesn&#8217;t have an actual effect on games played in October, it&#8217;s much easier to have fun with the fact that each team must have a player representing them in the midsummer classic. For a rebuilding team, finding that player can be an interesting exercise.</p>
<p>The young players are too inexperienced or simply not good enough to make it. That leaves Yoan Moncada (duh), Tim Anderson, and any of the pitchers who might make their White Sox debut in the coming month out of the equation. Then there are the underperforming veterans. Perhaps it seemed obvious that a Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, or Jose Quintana type would be donning the ugly All-Star attire for the White Sox coming into the season. However, none of those three have lived up to expectations, especially not to #ASGWorthy expectations.</p>
<p>What we&#8217;re left with is an odd group of players who all have a real chance at making it to Miami. Abreu seems like the obvious choice at this point. Unexpected players like Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, and Justin Smoak are crushing the ball right now, but the rest of the field at first base is thin. With a cool-off period certainly coming for the aforementioned first basemen and Abreu just now heating up, he could easily squeak in. He ranks fifth in wRC+ among qualified first basemen in the American League. The three odd emerging players mentioned before and Chris Davis are the only players above him. On the other hand, Alonso and company could keep up their torrid pace and make it an easy decision to keep Abreu out.</p>
<p>If Abreu can&#8217;t make it because of oddly great seasons from a few players, the White Sox do have some other options. There&#8217;s always Avisail Garcia, who somehow hasn&#8217;t completely cooled off yet. He&#8217;s still hitting .338/.388/.544 with a surprisingly low strikeout rate of just 19.0 percent entering play Wednesday. Among American League outfielders he ranks fourth in wRC+ with 157. Only Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, and Corey Dickerson have a higher wRC+ than Garcia. It would be hilarious, it would be sad, and it seriously could happen. Let&#8217;s continue to peruse the options though.</p>
<p>The other Garcia in the outfield is making quite a case. Leury Garcia is quietly hitting .312/.345/.486 with a 127 wRC+ and has taken over center field for the White Sox. His defense has been good, despite getting clocked in the head by a fly ball the other night. He&#8217;s also shown some surprising pop in his bat with four home runs and a .174 ISO. He hasn&#8217;t hit quite as well as the other Garcia or Abreu, and he doesn&#8217;t have the name recognition. However, he could be a dark horse for the All-Star Game spot if one of the other top Sox performers starts to crumble.</p>
<p>So far we&#8217;ve only discussed position players. The last time the White Sox even had a position player at the All-Star Game was 2014. Jose Quintana has already been dropped out of the race because of his poor start. After all, it took a few injured players to even get him on the All-Star roster last year despite an incredible start. It&#8217;s just not gonna happen. A pitching All-Star would have to come from the White Sox bullpen.</p>
<p>There are a couple candidates from the Sox bullpen. David Robertson hasn&#8217;t been as ridiculous as Anthony Swarzak or Tommy Kahnle, but he has the name recognition and performance to get him to the game. He&#8217;s currently sporting a 33.9 percent strikeout rate to go along with his 1.21 WHIP and 3.21 ERA. Those numbers are pretty good, but pale in comparison to Swarzak or Kahnle. Swarzak didn&#8217;t give up an earned run until Wendesday. He has a 35.5 percent strikeout rate, 3.2 percent walk rate, 0.31 WHIP, and 1.61 DRA. That is absolutely ridiculous.</p>
<p>Kahnle has also made his presence known with his wicked fastball and nasty changeup. His ERA is way above Swarzak&#8217;s at 1.80. He also has a comical 49.1 percent strikeout rate with a 7.3 percent walk rate, 0.80 WHIP, and 1.27 DRA. If either Swarzak or Kahnle can keep it up for the next month, they might have a shot at making it. With Terry Francona as the manager, they appear to have as good of a shot as anyone.</p>
<p>Who will be the White Sox representative at the midsummer classic? The favorite is probably Abreu. The backup might be Avisail Garcia if he keeps it up and gets enough support. A wackier, yet completely reasonable, choice would be either Swarzak or Kahnle from the bullpen. In a year where the team isn&#8217;t supposed to be competitive, a few odd players have actually stood out with outstanding seasons to date. Perhaps the White Sox even send a pair of players.</p>
<address>Lead Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports</address>
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		<title>Checking in on White Sox trade targets</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/17/checking-in-on-white-sox-trade-targets/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 17 May 2017 08:47:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Frank Firke]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Swarzak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Abreu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Quintana]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melky Cabrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nate Jones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Todd Frazier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tommy Kahnle]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6197</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On the eve of the season, we posted a set of expectations for the players on the White Sox roster. Given the shape of the roster and the trades over the winter, it’s not surprising that our expectations for several of the players was that they’d get traded during the course of the year. While [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On the eve of the season, we posted a set of expectations for the players on the White Sox roster. Given the shape of the roster and the trades over the winter, it’s not surprising that our expectations for several of the players was that they’d get traded during the course of the year. While it’s still quite early for players, it’s not as early for teams, and so it’s worth checking in to see which White Sox are any more or less likely to finish the season in a different organization’s laundry.</p>
<p>The picture isn’t much clearer than it was in March for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51645" target="_blank">Joses Quintana</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102005" target="_blank">Abreu</a> — both are under contract for a couple more years, so they don’t have to be dealt this year. Moreover, trying to size a deadline package for a star who’s not a rental is next to impossible from the outside, since it’s much harder to rule teams in or out on a player that demands a bigger return. For better or for worse, Quintana’s tepid start and Abreu’s solid-but-spiky first six weeks don’t mean much.</p>
<p>For the two proper rentals on the team, the first six weeks haven’t been kind to their trade values. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45397" target="_blank">Melky Cabrera’s</a> tAV of .226 would be a career-worst by 25 points, and while he’s due for a bit of a bounce back just based on BABIP luck, it’s not out of the question the power’s just gone. He probably always needed to get off to a hot start to get something more than a lotto ticket on the trade market, but barring a huge streak he’s now more likely to bring back a <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68953" target="_blank">Nolan Sanburn</a> than a <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57884" target="_blank">Leury Garcia</a>. (He’s not helped that there aren’t many contenders that need help in left field or a so-so bench bat. The Diamondbacks sort of fit the bill, but for now it’s hard to guess what shape they’ll be in at the deadline.)</p>
<p>The market for third basemen is at least a bit more open, with the Cardinals, Mets, and Red Sox all teams with reason for skepticism about their current situations at the hot corner and some shot at the playoff chase. (Amusingly enough, depending on how teams decide to value Melky’s switch-hitting, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53395" target="_blank">Todd Frazier</a> might actually be a better left field/bench bat than Cabrera for the rest of the year.) The issue with Frazier is that there’s uncertainty for him at the hot corner — he just hasn’t been very good, though he’s got even more room for positive regression than Cabrera. While the White Sox won’t be as damaged by Frazier’s walk year slump as he likely will be, it does seem unlikely he brings back a bad piece, but they’re in better shape to get something interesting back for him than they are with Cabrera.</p>
<p>With the White Sox current rolling out <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49616" target="_blank">Mike Pelfrey</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68529" target="_blank">Dylan Covey</a>, it seems a little foolish to talk about trading starting pitching “depth,” but the peripherals suggest they might not have any takers anyhow — <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47476" target="_blank">Miguel Gonzalez</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56468" target="_blank">Derek Holland’s</a> respective cFIPs of 105 and 111 are pretty bad, and while Gonzalez threw a couple gems in April, neither guy has the recent track record to make him an appealing pickup at the deadline.</p>
<p>At least I have a couple positive nuggets to save for last, which is that the White Sox bullpen has been dominant thus far. Before Tuesday&#8217;s game against the Angels, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57235" target="_blank">David Robertson</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67028" target="_blank">Tommy Kahnle</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46761" target="_blank">Anthony Swarzak</a> were each in the top 30 in all of baseball by cFIP, and each of them (along with <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56519" target="_blank">Nate Jones</a>, if he gets well soon) are likely available to any contender. Right now it’d almost be more surprising if the Nationals didn’t trade for Robertson, but having three or four high-end relievers to deal, encompassing a range of contract situations and track records, means the White Sox are sitting somewhat pretty in this regard. None of the quartet will bring back what <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49617" target="_blank">Andrew Miller</a> or <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53014" target="_blank">Aroldis Chapman</a> did last season, but in Kahnle and Swarzak the White Sox appear to have found some lottery tickets worth cashing in (either for innings or in trade), and Jones and Robertson have good pedigrees that might attract a premium. It’s still early, but it’s a couple rays of sunshine peeking through the otherwise overcast trade outlook.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>South Side Morning 5: James Shields finds success in deception</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/12/south-side-morning-5-james-shields-finds-success-in-deception/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/12/south-side-morning-5-james-shields-finds-success-in-deception/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2017 06:05:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Side Morning 5]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geovany Soto]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Shields]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Todd Frazier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tommy Kahnle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zach Putnam]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5993</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1. At this point in his career, James Shields’ path to production lies more in his ability to fool hitters than with pure stuff. In Tuesday’s 2-1, 10-inning loss to the Indians, hitters looked downright clueless as Shields put together his second solid start of the young season, going 5.1 innings while allowing two hits, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="p1">1. At this point in his career, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=42750" target="_blank">James Shields’</a> path to production lies more in his ability to fool hitters than with pure stuff. In Tuesday’s 2-1, 10-inning loss to the Indians, hitters looked downright clueless as Shields put together his second solid start of the young season, going 5.1 innings while allowing two hits, one earned run, two walks and striking out six.</p>
<p class="p1">While last Thursday’s win in his season debut saw Shields generate 13 swinging strikes, and all five of his strikeouts were of the swinging variety, Tuesday was a different story, as three of his six strikeouts were looking.</p>
<p class="p1">As Shields’ stuff diminishes, the key to him finding success will be in deception, something he did on Tuesday and <a href="https://theathletic.com/51747/2017/04/11/white-sox-push-cleveland-to-10-innings-in-first-of-many-moral-victories/" target="_blank">talked about after the game</a>.</p>
<p class="p3" style="padding-left: 30px"><em><span class="s1">“I’m trying to mix up speeds a little bit,” Shields said, “Create some new stuff. I’ve done this a long time, and every year I have to reinvent myself, change speeds and change locations, so we’ll see how it goes.”</span></em></p>
<p class="p3">There&#8217;s a fine line between scooting by and being unusable — the latter is what we saw a year ago — but through two starts there are signs that Shields&#8217; approach should do well enough for him to eat innings and hopefully repair his value that diminished so rapidly in 2016.</p>
<p class="p3">2. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53395" target="_blank">Todd Frazier</a> got off to a worrisome start to the season, but while his swing was generating an absurd number of pop-ups and weak contact early on, he had been seeing the ball well at the plate, as evidence by the four walks and two strikeouts through the first five games.</p>
<p class="p3">Tuesday, hopefully, provided a payoff for him at the plate, as he cracked his first two extra-base hits of the season, including a long solo home run that provided the White Sox their only run on the afternoon.</p>
<p class="p3">Frazier&#8217;s 2016 as well as the White Sox own history with aging sluggers provides some level of worry that this would be the season he plummeted to an unplayable, or at least un-tradable level. But if he continues to see the ball well and the solid contact we saw on Tuesday becomes more of the norm, those worries would hopefully be put to rest.</p>
<p class="p3">3. The White Sox bullpen is and will continue to be one of the few bright spots in a rebuilding season, but Tuesday was not its finest day, as <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58318" target="_blank">Dan Jennings</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56519" target="_blank">Nate Jones</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67028" target="_blank">Tommy Kahnle</a> combined to walk five with Kahnle eventually taking the loss on <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49264" target="_blank">Michael Brantley&#8217;s</a> walk-off double.</p>
<p class="p3">The performance was hardly one to signal any sort of long-term worry, and for their parts, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58563" target="_blank">Zach Putnam</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57235" target="_blank">David Robertson</a> looked downright un-hittable in their 2.2 combined innings of work. On a day when the White Sox stranded eight Indians, and induced two bases loaded double plays off the bat of <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31564" target="_blank">Edwin Encarnacion</a>, taking a loss because their injury-replacement reliever got beat by a good hitter on a good pitch isn&#8217;t the worst result in the world.</p>
<p class="p3">4. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=43102" target="_blank">Geovany Soto</a> got the start behind the plate on Tuesday, and has now started four of the White Sox&#8217; six games this season. Similarly, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=69512" target="_blank">Cody Asche</a> has started four times to just two by <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60958" target="_blank">Matt Davidson</a>.</p>
<p class="p3">It would be foolish to draw any sweeping conclusions about lineups just six games into the season, but one does have to at least wonder what Rick Renteria&#8217;s long-term plan is for playing time at those two positions. Neither Davidson nor <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66068" target="_blank">Omar Narvaez</a> have much more than a fleeting chance to be solid, regular contributors in the majors in the long run, but in Soto, even with his early-season power surge, and Asche, who has one hit to his credit, the White Sox know what they have.</p>
<p class="p3">I guess what I&#8217;m saying is, let the kids play!</p>
<p class="p5">5. Our own Nick Schaefer hosted a chat over on the main site on Tuesday and if you missed out, you’re a failure of a human being. However, the good news is that <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1406&amp;utm_content=buffer63cdd&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer" target="_blank">you can read the entire transcript here</a>.</p>
<p class="p5"><em>Lead Photo Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Defining Success: The White Sox Roster</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/31/defining-success-the-white-sox-roster/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/31/defining-success-the-white-sox-roster/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Mar 2017 06:39:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Feature]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Rodon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob May]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Abreu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Quintana]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opening Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Anderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Todd Frazier]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5923</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The White Sox are in a situation recent memory is unfamiliar with as they enter the 2017 season devoid of hopes for contention. Because of this, it would be foolish to judge the successes or failures of the team based solely on wins and losses, but instead look at individual growth of certain players, trade [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>The White Sox are in a situation recent memory is unfamiliar with as they enter the 2017 season devoid of hopes for contention. Because of this, it would be foolish to judge the successes or failures of the team based solely on wins and losses, but instead look at individual growth of certain players, trade value increasing or decreasing, or players cementing themselves as having a future with the organization, in order to better gauge how successful this season will be. We&#8217;re taking a look at every aspect of the organization, from the prospects, to the players on the 25-man roster to begin the season, to the team as a whole, trying our best to answer the question: How do you define success with this team as currently constructed? Thursday, <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/30/defining-success-the-prospects/" target="_blank">we looked at the prospects</a>, and today, we&#8217;ll look at the White Sox roster as, barring any weekend surprises, we&#8217;re likely to see against the Detroit Tigers on Monday.</em></p>
<p><strong>POSITION PLAYERS</strong></p>
<p><b>Omar Narvaez<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">376 PA, .240/.307/.335, 6 HR, 33 RBI, -1.2 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">When asked last week about what, if anything, the White Sox learned from the Great Catching Failure of 2016, general manager Rick Hahn reiterated that the White Sox do, in fact, care very much about framing and catcher defense and that the ill-fated decision to downgrade in that department from Tyler Flowers to Dioner Navarro and Alex Avila was an attempt to generate more offense. Hahn noted that the White Sox have had success in developing catcher defense, reminding us that when Flowers entered the White Sox system he was considered a bat-first prospect who might have trouble sticking at catcher defensively. This is a fair point, and it’s certainly possible that the Sox bet on their ability to teach both Navarro and Avila how to better frame pitches. But apparently you can’t teach an old dog new tricks … or something. If the White Sox want to better prove their point, Narvaez is about the best guinea pig imaginable. Narvaez graded out at a below-average pitch framer in his limited major league time in 2016 (minus-4.1 FRAA), but he’s still young enough that writing him off in that department might be premature. Catcher is a notoriously thin position across the league, so if Narvaez can remain what he was offensively in 2016 — plenty of walks, little power — and improve his defense, it would be considered a win for the White Sox. <em>- Collin Whitchurch</em></span></p>
<p><b>Geovany Soto<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">193 PA, .223/.289/.384, 6 HR, 23 RBI, -0.1 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The White Sox aren’t asking for much from Soto: give Narvaez some days off, mentor him a bit, and don’t be as terrible as Dioner Navarro. And as long as Soto doesn’t get hurt, those are all pretty easy bars to clear. Anything he adds on offense is just bonus points. <em>-Mark Primiano</em></span></p>
<p><b>Jose Abreu<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">633 PA, .288/.349/.495, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 3.4 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">We’ve seen different calibers of Abreu over his three years in the majors, and while his second half resurgence makes PECOTA’s projection eminently reasonable, there’s still reasonable hope for more. His contact skills and power should still be there, and if he gets a little more luck with his health in 2017, we could see something closer to his 2014 than the past couple of seasons, which would firmly pull him back toward, “Fearsome Beast” instead of “Solidly plus 1B bat.” And as sad as it is to contemplate, it wouldn’t hurt if he boosted his trade value either. And if he’s hitting .310/.360/.550 at the All-Star break instead of the above, he might command something quite interesting (and maybe get to play in the playoffs for someone). <em>-Nick Schaefer</em></span></p>
<p><b>Tyler Saladino<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">300 PA, .257/.305/.391, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 1.3 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">With Brett Lawrie’s release, Saladino went from “supersub waiting for Frazier to get traded” to “starting second baseman hoping Frazier gets traded pretty close to when Moncada comes up so he can be the starting third baseman.” He can certainly handle it defensively, and the question becomes what caliber and shape his offense take. Saladino is no stranger to injury himself, but if he can play 140-plus games while providing league average offense and a plus glove, he is suddenly a legitimate regular and not just a plus utility player, although third would certainly put more pressure on his bat. <em>-Nick Schaefer</em></span></p>
<p><b>Tim Anderson<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">626 PA, .267/.288/.404, 14 HR, 57 RBI, 1.0 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Anderson will very likely be the most interesting player on the Opening Day roster. Of the position players, he’s the most likely to stick around for awhile — as seen by his recent contract extension. With that said, the White Sox don’t need Anderson to blow the league away in 2017. The nice thing about finally breaking down and rebuilding is that there is no longer intense pressure on prospects to rapidly reach their ceiling. Anderson is never going to post strikeout and walk rates like Jose Altuve, but it is one glaring area for improvement. Last year he walked 13 times in 431 plate appearances. A successful season sees him improve that to 30 over a full season while keeping his strikeout rate the same, if not lower. It wouldn’t hurt to see the surprising power from a season ago make a return either. More than anything a successful season for Anderson involves him avoiding a sophomore slump and taking a step forward rather than backward. <em>-Ryan Schultz</em></span></p>
<p><b>Todd Frazier<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">551 PA, .247/.312/.449, 27 HR, 84 RBI, 1.8 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It still feels weird that the White Sox went from a team that was consistently full of mashers to one absolutely lacking in power hitters. The Sox finished 13th in the AL in home runs and 11th in ISO last season, numbers that make it pretty damn hard to put together a half-decent offense. Frazier did his part, putting up a career high 40 home runs, though the rest of his batting stats continued a worrisome decline from their 2014 high. Frazier is in his walk year on a rebuilding team, so a successful season would involve putting up a strong enough first half (which would be in line with his career splits of .833 vs .721 OPS per half) to bring back a useful player or two for the future. <em>-Mark Primiano</em></span></p>
<p><b>Melky Cabrera<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">540 PA, .288/.332/.422, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 1.5 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In his last year of his contract, a good season for Cabrera is one in which he stays healthy, strokes a couple clutch hits for the White Sox, entertains us in the outfield, and plays well for a contender after he gets shipped out in July for a couple B prospects. More concisely: “90 percent of 2016 Carlos Beltran’s production, but with funnier facial expressions and more pratfalls.” (Beltran had a .293 tAV when he was traded last year, and Cabrera’s 90th percentile tAV per PECOTA is .294) <em>-Frank Firke</em></span></p>
<p><b>Avisail Garcia<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">432 PA, .263/.311/.404, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 0.5 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I honestly have no clue what would indicate a successful season for Garcia at this point. Hitting 20 home runs while being passable in the outfield would certainly be successful, but that doesn’t seem entirely plausible. For White Sox fans, the Avisail Garcia experiences has been nothing but disappointment. However, now that the focus has shifted from achieving the greatest possible outcome from fill-in players in the interest of competing for a playoff position to simply rebuilding for the future, the picture changes a bit. The White Sox are no longer being crippled by allowing Garcia to play despite his troubles at the plate and in the field. They’re free to allow him to play and perhaps find the player they saw when they chose him over Jose Iglesias. On the flip side, perhaps a truly horrible season from Garcia is the most successful in that it sees the White Sox finally give up on him. <em>-Ryan Schultz</em></span></p>
<p><b>Jacob May<br />
PECOTA projections: </b>206 PA, .233/.275/.336, 3 HR, 19 RBI, -0.6 WARP</p>
<p>May will be one of the most watched players heading north with the big club after his surprising ascension to the Opening Day roster. But even after his impressive spring both offensively and defensively, the odds will be stacked against May given his season-long struggles with the bat in 2016 during his first season at Triple-A. Still, the White Sox have shown enough faith in him to give an opportunity that probably wouldn&#8217;t be afforded him during a year with contention in mind, and if he&#8217;s able to hold down a roster spot all season long, that&#8217;d be a major accomplishment. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><b>Matt Davidson<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b>396 PA, .208/.283/.372, 17 HR, 59 RBI, -0.7 WARP</p>
<p>After so many setbacks, success for Davidson is probably qualifying for an MLB pension, but that happens if he makes it through April on the active roster. If we’re a little more ambitious, it’s staying on the roster all year. From there, two paths: one with a stretch goal of replacement level (which PECOTA says is a top quartile outcome) and a best case scenario of an average bat, decent reps at third base, and a spot on someone’s roster next year. The other path’s best outcome? Well, Dayan Viciedo posted an .838 OPS in Japan last year. <em>-Frank Firke</em></p>
<p><strong>Cody Asche<br />
PECOTA projections: </strong>101 PA, .247/.305/.410, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 0.1 WARP</p>
<p>The White Sox have plenty of players who will get an opportunity to prove they belong on a major league roster in 2017. While there&#8217;s still a bit of an unknown element in the likes of Narvaez, Davidson, or May, Asche doesn&#8217;t quite fit that mold. With nearly 1,300 plate appearances to his credit, Asche falls more in a category with Avisail Garcia as someone who has experienced enough failure during his career to where hope of success is mostly gone. In fact, in about 250 fewer career plate appearances than Garcia, Asche has a lower OPS+. Anything remotely positive he&#8217;s able to provide would be considered a shocking success. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><b>Leury Garcia<br />
PECOTA projections: </b>94 PA, .246/.286/.359, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 0.0 WARP</p>
<p>More than half of Garcia&#8217;s 331 career plate appearances came during the 2014 season, when he hit a paltry .166/.192/.207 with a ridiculous 15 OPS+, while also playing every position on the field except first base and catcher. But after being considered a guy with a solid glove at most spots on the field but a terrible bat for most of his minor league career, he&#8217;s been solid at the plate in each of his previous two seasons at Triple-A Charlotte. Garcia&#8217;s career probably won&#8217;t amount to much, but it&#8217;s not impossible that he carves out a nice career as a utility guy given his positional versatility if he&#8217;s able to hold his own with the bat. The odds are still against that happening, but he&#8217;s likely to get the best opportunity of his career to prove it with this year&#8217;s team. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><strong>Yolmer Sanchez<br />
PECOTA projections: </strong>186 PA, .246/.286/.371, 4 HR, 18 RBI, -0.1 WARP</p>
<p>Sanchez has been in the White Sox system long enough that it&#8217;s hard to believe he&#8217;s still just 24, younger than Leury Garcia, Tyler Saladino, and Jacob May. When the White Sox signed Sanchez, they were just a year removed from their last playoff appearance! Still, while Sanchez&#8217; opportunities have and will continue to come from the uncertainty of the White Sox second base situation (until, ya know, Yoan Moncada comes up), his ceiling is almost certainly that of a backup infielder. Proving that he can stick around to provide even that, and put an end to his ping-ponging between Chicago and Charlotte, would be a big step for Sanchez. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><b>PITCHERS</b></p>
<p><b>Jose Quintana<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">189 IP, 12-11, 3.95 ERA, 181 K, 50 BB, 2.4 WARP</span></p>
<p>Quintana received a fifth-place Cy Young vote last season, something simultaneously irrelevant and so very meaningful. It was meaningful solely because it showed that Quintana, who has put together four consecutive seasons that prove he&#8217;s an established, above-average starter, is finally starting to get some of the recognition that goes with that kind of performance. The spotlight will shine even brighter on Quintana this season as the bonafide No. 1 starter on this White Sox team. Quintana is easy to root for, and while a realistic expectation from the White Sox perspective includes him shoving for the first half and getting dealt in July for a plethora of prospects from a desperate contender, the personal expectation includes him continuing to ascend to the point where it&#8217;s no longer noteworthy when he&#8217;s rightfully mentioned in the same breathe as the top pitchers in the American League, regardless of what team&#8217;s uniform he&#8217;s wearing by the end of the season. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><b>Carlos Rodon<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">177 IP, 11-11, 3.92 ERA, 187 K, 64 BB, 2.3 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This time last week a successful season would be a breakout — 180-plus innings, 200 strikeouts, an ERA below 3.40. Even with the good news that his MRIs came up clean and a diagnosis of bursitis, perhaps health and further incremental progress should be sufficient for White Sox fans. After all, he doesn’t have to hit his ceiling this year. He just needs to keep getting closer to that point. </span>Or he could see a jump in his fastball command and feel for his change and morph into an ace now. That is also welcome. <em>-Nick Schaefer</em></p>
<p><b>Miguel Gonzalez<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">148 IP, 8-11, 4.63 ERA, 121 K, 49 BB, 0.6 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">After the release of John Danks and the downward spiraling fiasco that was Mat Latos, the White Sox rotation went through it’s growing pains at the back end in 2016. But that was before Gonzalez was officially named to the starting rotation. The Orioles quickly released Gonzalez after his ERA and peripherals shot up to around the 5 mark in 2015, though Gonzalez had no significant or apparent injury. When Gonzalez joined the White Sox rotation he was just the unexpected surprise that the a weary team needed, tossing 135 innings (his inning total would have been higher if not for a groin injury that sidelined him for a handful of starts) to end the season with a very balanced 3.73 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and 3.99 DRA. </span>Gonzalez’s success could have been a fluke, and it may still come in waves, but Gonzalez managed to keep his ground ball numbers steady at 40 percent, and lowered his HR/FB rate to just 6.8 percent, down from 15 percent in 2015. Locating his pitches will be a key factor for Gonzalez, who went from 27 walks in the first half of 2016 to just 8 in the second half. Starting in the two spot until Carlos Rodon is healthy may not be the prettiest sight for the White Sox, but flipping a pitcher such a Gonzalez to the third starter spot is a whole different animal of expectation, and could be a quite comfortable roll for Gonzalez in 2017. <em>-Cat Garcia</em></p>
<p><b>Derek Holland<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">101 IP, 5-7, 4.72 ERA, 79 K, 32 BB, 0.3 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Another White Sox-esque acquisition that is more of reclamation project than anything after eight seasons in Texas, Holland leaves the White Sox to salvage the remains of a now-injury riddled starter who last threw 200 innings back in 2013. However, if anyone can help maintain the health of a pitcher such as Holland, pitching coach Don Cooper is the man for the task. PECOTA shows Holland nearly replicating his 2016 with Texas this year, a performance that caused the Rangers to decline Holland’s $11 million contract option in favor of a of $1.5 million buyout, leaving Holland free to the open market for the first time in his career. With Holland likely bumping to the fourth spot once the White Sox rotation gets settled in, repeating his 2016 wouldn’t be utterly disastrous for a fourth starter on a one-year deal with a team not looking to contend. One concern with a Holland-type is that should he only start around 100 innings as PECOTA predicts, he defeats the purpose of absorbing the lack of sharp stuff for an inning eater type who is able to spare your bullpen of a few unnecessary outings. <em>-Cat Garcia</em></span></p>
<p><b>James Shields<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">174 IP, 9-12, 5.04 ERA, 154 K, 68 BB, -0.2 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Shields had a 6.77 ERA on the South Side last year, but he was unlucky — if you use BP’s all-inclusive DRA metric, it should’ve been more like 6.73. Still, in 2015 he was worth 1.8 WARP for the Padres. That’s about his upper bound (90th percentile outcome in PECOTA is 2.0 WARP), and so the best case scenario is probably that he pitches that well, moves up the active complete games leaderboard (he’s tied for fifth, and if everything breaks right he can get as high as third), and gets some nice buzz for mentoring some of the White Sox prospects. More realistically, Shields gave up two homers per 9 last year (2.4 as a White Sox) and failed to clear 200 IP over a full season for the first time. If he can clear the latter benchmark and cut the homers by 25 percent or so, the White Sox will have gotten what they need out of him. <em>-Frank Firke</em></span></p>
<p><b>David Robertson<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">61 IP, 3.48 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 74 K, 0.9 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">A return to form. Robertson’s 2016 season was a lost year due to trying to pitch through a knee injury. The results? His lowest K/9 since 2013 and his highest BB/9 since 2011. With him being fully healthy once more, one would expect (hope?) those numbers correct themselves back towards where they belong. If they do, that could go a long way towards helping the rebuild effort because there’s never a shortage of contending teams looking for bullpen help come July. <em>-Mark Primiano</em></span></p>
<p><b>Nate Jones<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">64 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 73 K, 1.3 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">A successful season for Jones likely sees him with another team by August 1. Despite David Robertson having that elusive title of closer, Jones appears to be the more valuable asset. A solid first half of the season where he stays healthy and avoids bad outings could be more than enough to fetch some solid prospects in a trade, especially given the development of the reliever market that we’ve seen over the past couple seasons. If Jones does stick around, for whatever reason, a successful season is essentially just one where he remains healthy. So far he’s been a Tommy John success story, but that can change at the drop of a hat. <em>-Ryan Schultz</em></span></p>
<p><b>Dan Jennings, Zach Putnam, Jake Petricka, Anthony Swarzak, Dylan Covey, Michael Ynoa</b></p>
<p>I mean no disrespect to these six pitchers by lumping them all together at the end, but the fact of the matter is we&#8217;re at 3,000 words and relievers are so unpredictable that I could probably have put a giant shrug emoji in this space. Success for this group is that they all stay healthy and effective enough to eat innings and maybe one or two of them find enough success to fetch something of value at the trade deadline. Maybe one of them emerges into something more. In the cases of Jennings, Putnam, and Petricka, you already have established major league relievers with a good chance of remaining somewhat valuable. For the other three, sticking around for the season would be a profound success. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>South Side Spring Training 5: White Sox Win Championship</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/23/south-side-spring-training-5-white-sox-win-championship/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/23/south-side-spring-training-5-white-sox-win-championship/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Mar 2017 08:05:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Side Morning 5]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jacob May]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nate Jones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Anderson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5873</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1. The break Nate Jones and David Robertson took from White Sox camp to help the US win the World Baseball Classic is officially over after the team&#8217;s 8-0 win over Puerto Rico in Wednesday&#8217;s title game. The two and a half weeks and eight games the US played over that period provided them with less [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. The break <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56519" target="_blank">Nate Jones</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57235" target="_blank">David Robertson</a> took from White Sox camp to help the US win the World Baseball Classic is officially over after the team&#8217;s 8-0 win over Puerto Rico in Wednesday&#8217;s title game. The two and a half weeks and eight games the US played over that period provided them with less work than either pitcher would&#8217;ve had otherwise — Jones tossed four innings and Robertson pitched 4.2, including getting the final outs in Wedneday&#8217;s win — but the work they did put in was, of course, much higher leverage than a random inning&#8217;s work against a bunch of Diamondbacks minor leaguers on a Monday afternoon.</p>
<p>Given that neither embarrassed himself on the mound, allowing just a run each in four appearances, <a href="https://twitter.com/minakimes/status/844670090792652800" target="_blank">nor did they say anything stupid</a>, get injured, and wound up on the winning side, it&#8217;s fair to say it was a successful trip for the duo. The Sox got both regular work in the few games before the WBC began and we&#8217;ll see if the Sox choose to get either into a Cactus League game again during the week of action remaining before Opening Day.</p>
<p>2. We&#8217;re closing in on single digit days remaining until the season begins, and the White Sox have made a number of cuts to their Spring Training roster, including sending heralded prospects <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100261" target="_blank">Lucas Giolito</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=101728" target="_blank">Reynaldo Lopez</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=105432" target="_blank">Yoan Moncada</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=104824" target="_blank">Michael Kopech</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70611" target="_blank">Carson Fulmer</a> down earlier this week.</p>
<p>Those five <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/ct-white-sox-roster-cuts-20170322-story.html" target="_blank">were joined on Wednesday</a> by another round of similarly unsurprising cuts, with <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102578" target="_blank">Adam Engel</a>, Wrestling Enthusiast <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67028" target="_blank">Tommy Kahnle</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70825" target="_blank">Jace Fry</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67073" target="_blank">Roberto Pena</a> being reassigned to minor league camp. The Sox spring roster is now at 37.</p>
<p>3. The one guy who has survived those cuts thus far who may be a bit surprising is <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68737" target="_blank">Jacob May</a>, who seems to be at least in the mix for the major league roster, if not as the starting center fielder at least for a spot on the bench. The White Sox have three outfielders remaining on the roster who can play center field in May, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50054" target="_blank">Peter Bourjos</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57884" target="_blank">Leury Garcia</a>.</p>
<p>May has gotten plenty of playing time this spring and taken advantage of the opportunity, hitting .340/.367/.511 in 47 at-bats (second most on the team). That, of course, means very little, and May is not at all far removed from an underwhelming first pass at Triple-A when he hit .266/.309/.352 in 321 plate appearances. But the injury to <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70493" target="_blank">Charlie Tilson</a> bumped him up a notch on the depth chart and when you consider the alternatives — a 30-year-old Bourjos or Garcia and his .462 career OPS in 331 major league plate appearances — it makes sense for the Sox to take a closer look, regardless of the outcome.</p>
<p>4. <a href="http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-white-sox/how-white-sox-and-tim-anderson-came-their-creative-contract-extension" target="_blank">It took some creativity</a> for the White Sox and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102503" target="_blank">Tim Anderson</a> to come to terms on the six-year, $25 million extension the shortstop inked on Tuesday. The deal will keep Anderson in Chicago through at least 2022, with options for 2023 and 2024, and showed once again the White Sox&#8217; eagerness to lock up players they think can be major players on their next contender.</p>
<p>The circumstances surrounding the team at the time of Anderson&#8217;s deal, compared to those given to <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=65751" target="_blank">Chris Sale</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51645" target="_blank">Jose Quintana</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67746" target="_blank">Adam Eaton</a> in the past, are obviously different, but this is a clear signal that the White Sox have big expectations for Anderson&#8217;s role in their future. And with a plethora of young talent coming up behind him, it&#8217;s reasonable to assume they&#8217;ll have similar goals as the new core transitions into major league roles.</p>
<p>5. Nick Schaefer and I were given an opportunity to write the White Sox season preview for BP&#8217;s main site, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31410" target="_blank">which you should totally read here</a>. The theme of this year&#8217;s series was &#8220;Looking Back on Tomorrow,&#8221; meaning essentially, for what will this year&#8217;s team be most remembered?</p>
<p>It&#8217;s easy to look at this year&#8217;s team and feel sanguine. Despite the absence of hope for the 2017 team specifically, there&#8217;s been an air of optimism for the future, because of the amount of young talent we&#8217;ve all gotten our first glimpse of during camp. But the thing I keep coming back to is &#8220;just keep going.&#8221; And I don&#8217;t mean that in the sense of &#8220;get as bad as possible, go full Astros, Cubs, Braves.&#8221; Maybe that&#8217;s not the path the White Sox take. And maybe it&#8217;s not the path they need to take. Having multiple 100-loss seasons in a row isn&#8217;t always necessary. What is necessary is that whatever direction the White Sox choose, whatever decisions they make, that they stick to them and continue down that path. The start of this rebuild is important, but it&#8217;s seeing it through to fruition that will matter in the long run.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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