• Adam Eaton took the second pitch of the day just over the right field fence to put the Sox up early. Considering Sale’s string of dominance, one couldn’t help but wonder if that would be enough. It was not. The Phillies struck back with with three runs in the bottom half of the inning courtesy of a single, HBP, a misplayed line drive directly at Melky Cabrera, and a ground ball that squeaked between Todd Frazier and the foul line. They would add on a pair more in the third of a HBP and a 3-iron homerun off the bat of Tommy Joseph. A sixth run in the fourth in would eventually spell the end of Sale’s frustrating night.

• Trailing 8-1 in the seventh, Frazier and Alex Avila went back-to-back off Eickhoff to bring the game to a five run difference. That was plenty for the Phillies, and a man who spells his name wrong ended up notching his 11 win of the season. Frazier now has 38 dingers on the season and improved his chances to break the elusive 40 barrier.

• Coming into the game, the official BP Southside betting moderator (aka Nick Schaefer) put the over/under on number of Sox relievers used at 1.5. Most took the under. Most were dead wrong. Sale didn’t have his best stuff or command and it showed in his final line. 4IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 5 K, 3 HBP. Facing an underwhelming Phillies lineup, Sale plunked 3 batters and allowed hard contact all night. The four inning appearance marked Sale’s shortest start since getting hammered by the Indians on May 24th , and almost certainly puts the nail in the coffin for his outside bid at a Cy Young.

• Things got scary in the sixth when Chris Beck plunked Tyler Goeddel in the back of the helmet. After laying on the ground for a moment, Goeddel was able to walk off the field under his own power. All-in-all, Sox pitchers hit four batters during the game.

• Adam Eaton led the modest charge with a three-for-four day including his 14th home run, which ties his total from 2015. His .795 OPS would be a career high, and his defensive improvements have been well documented. In a season of disappointments, it’s nice to know that not all is terrible, depressing sadness. Just most of it.

Team Record: 72-80

Next game is Friday at Cleveland at 6:10pm CT.

Lead Image Credit: Rick Osentoski // USA Today Sports Images

Last year’s offensive woes were likely much of the impetus for GM Rich Hahn’s offseason additions that focused on bolstering the lineup. By adding Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie and Jimmy Rollins, he certainly did that. While that trio’s 64 combined home runs in 2015 was strong on its own, it’s downright incredible compared to the hodgepodge of replacement level players that combined for a measly 31 home runs at second base, shortstop, and third base for the 2015 White Sox. In fact, no trio of White Sox swatted more dingers in 2015 than Frazier, Lawrie, and Rollins, with the three leading home run hitters (Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, and Avisail Garcia) only combining for 57. Almost by default, the White Sox should be a much more powerful team this season.

PECOTA certainly agrees with this assessment, projecting 157 home runs and an above average team TAv of .263. This alone is quite encouraging, and in fact would represent the best White Sox offense since the team last claimed the AL Central crown in 2008. But these projections were made without accounting for this Spring’s offensive explosion, and by doing so might even still be too conservative.

Of course, it is very difficult to make any reasonable predictions based solely on Spring Training statistics. Between small sample sizes, dampened competition (both due to facing MiLB players as well as MLB players still getting into shape) and a very different offensive environment, drawing conclusions like “The White Sox will lead the majors in home runs” from this Spring would be misguided. But as 538’s Rob Arthur showed last Spring, there is statistically significant information that can be gleaned from Spring Training performance on a team-wide level. By supplementing BP’s PECOTA model with team Spring Training OPS, Arthur was able to develop a slightly more accurate model than PECOTA on its own, with teams that hit better than expected in Spring generally outperforming their PECOTA projections, albeit not by a large amount.

Is this to say that the White Sox projection should go from slightly above average to near the top of baseball? Certainly not. While the relationship is statistically significant, it’s not particularly strong. Furthermore, the magnitude of the change in projected OPS was not enormous — last year’s largest riser according to Arthur was the Mets, who saw their OPS projection go up .011. So expecting the Sox to be an offensive juggernaut in 2016 is aggressive. But with the strength of the current pitching staff, even PECOTA’s projected .263 TAv may be enough to vault them into contention, and anything else might be enough to ensure that Barack Obama’s favorite baseball team will not go without a playoff appearance during his time as president.

Top photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports