Since then, I’ve been asked how the team managed to get off to that good start if the roster really was that flawed. Injuries to spare parts like Austin Jackson only go so far, even if his understudy would wind up being well below replacement level. Similarly, vague explanations like, “Well, it was a small sample” or “Luck” or “Variance” is deeply unsatisfying and abstract.  Oddly, while Hawk Harrelson lamented the White Sox’ tough schedule as the season veered listlessly into a ditch, he had in fact accidentally stumbled upon a big reason why we thought the White Sox might actually be good.

Of those first 33 games, the White Sox played six against Minnesota, four against Oakland, and four against the Angels.  Those three teams would finish the season winning 59 (!!), 69, and 74 games respectively, and the White Sox unsurprisingly went 11-3 against them.  They even got three games against the Rays, who finished last in the AL East, for good measure, although they would only go 1-2 in that set.  In other words, the White Sox played more than half of their first 33 games against the absolute worst teams in the American League by a mile, and the only four teams who would finish lower than they did by the end of the season.

And sure, good teams beat up on cellar dwellers while treading water against stronger competition, but the White Sox drew about as weak of an opening schedule as you possibly could.  Eventually the problems that always plagued the White Sox of the post-2008 era–the back half of the roster being sub-replacement dreck with Worst In MLB production coming from multiple spots in the order–sank the White Sox as they moved through the rest of an otherwise very competitive American League.

I was inspired to re-visit this issue as the Minnesota Twins still sit in first place in the AL Central at 27-23, even after losing three straight to Houston by a combined score of 40-16.  And while they’ve had positive developments–Ervin Santana is still pitching out of his mind, Miguel Sano is a superb bat, etc.–a lopsided early schedule explains a lot of their good start.  The Twins are 7-1 against the Kansas City Royals, a team that rose to prominence by grabbing minor advantages all over the diamond, who have now lost a slight step, meaning they are looking like a 90-loss team again.  Throw in some good luck in one run games in the early going, Cleveland gearing up slowly, and voila, First Place Twins.

This trend may even continue! They’re currently matched up with the Angels right when they lost Mike Trout, and then they go on to play seven games against the Mariners whose entire team is on the DL, with a three game set against the Giants sans-Madison Bumgarner for good measure.

People throw around, “It’s early” all the time in baseball, and it can be very tempting to start trying to draw conclusions at this stage of the season.  After all, we’re at 50 games played for most teams and it’s June now.  But projection systems and the general public generally agreed the Twins weren’t a great team coming into the season, and the same reasons one would make that prediction still exist.  Their pitchers are by and large bad and there isn’t much help on the way from the minors.  If Santana’s ERA drifts up toward 3.00, which would represent a career best mark at age-34, does that erase their margin for winning more than half their games? What happens when the schedule gets harder?

At the risk of having this article shoved in my face forever when the Twins wind up winning 90 games for no reason, I recommend against betting on the Twins to win the division.

Lead Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski – USA Today Sports Images

On the other end of that spectrum, starting for the White Sox was Jose Quintana, the now-deposed AL ERA leader. Quintana had reeled off eight-straight quality starts coming in and compiled a 1.81 ERA over that stretch.

This seemed like a night that would offer the Sox a bit more certainty than the typical ‘breaks of the game’ nonsense, but no. No no. No no no no. That’s not how it turned out.

1. It’s no small source of amusement that Thursday’s game went about playing exactly to type for roughly 25 minutes. Quintana struck out two in a perfect first inning, and after escaping three singles in the top of that first inning, Ervin Santana served up a center cut fastball to Todd Frazier that the Sox home run leader lasered into the left field seats for an early 1-0 lead in the second.

2. It turns out there was a bit of accurate foreshadowing in the earlygoing, it just wasn’t the Cy Young contender shoving nor the home run-addicted third baseman getting his power fix. The reason Santana was able to pitch over three hits in the first, was because after wunderkind Tim Anderson singled to center, he was drilled in the calf by a Melky Cabrera line drive while leading off first. Anderson was out as a result of the play, making him the only one of the Sox first eight runners on the basepaths that they did not simply strand, and then he left the game to nurse his injury after the top of the third.

3. The luck would continue. While the Sox put together a 2-for-14 night with runners in scoring position, the Twins went 4-for-8. Three-straight singles in the second, capped off by Kurt Suzuki winning a seven-pitch battle, would tie the game at 1-1, but the Twins would take the lead on a wild pitch. Against No. 9 hitter Byron Buxton, the strikeout-prone former No. 1 global prospect that the Twins have succeeded in turning into a taxi squad member this year, Quintana would typically seize the opportunity to minimize the damage. Instead, Buxton fouled off two pitches after falling behind 0-2, caught hold of a curve and launched it into the second-deck in left for a back-breaking three-run home run. Quintana would strike out the next four batters in a row, but never regained his air of supremacy, allowing a two-run blast to Trevor Plouffe in the fifth, after he caught hold of a seemingly well-located outside fastball.

From a runs and innings standpoint, this was unquestionably his worst start of the year. Yet Quintana struck out eight and walked none, and played the part of a dominant pitcher who got rather inexplicably nailed to great conviction.

4. The Sox were not lacking for offense–they collected 15 hits–but were short on offensive heroes. Jose Abreu pounded a tape measure home run to right-center in the sixth to reach 20 for the season, and led the team with three hits. Carlos Sanchez filled in for Anderson and smacked two doubles, scoring when Cabrera missed a home run by inches in the fourth, and knocking in Adam Eaton from first in the eighth. Avisail Garcia–who is being evaluated, you know–went 0-for-4 and struck out three times, cracking his bat over his knee on the last whiff of the night.

5. September callup Juan Minaya made his major league debut in the eighth, pitching a scoreless frame and getting over a leadoff walk when he struck out Suzuki while Alex Avila threw out Jorge Polanco at second.

Team Record: 63-70

Next game is Friday at 7:10pm CT at Minnesota on CSN

Lead Image Credit: Jordan Johnson // USA Today Sports Image