Injuries have been the defining factor of Jacob May’s career so far, and not just injuries to himself. May’s minor league career had a fairly decent start for a 3rd round speedy centerfielder until he ran full-speed into Tim Anderson in 2015 and lost half a season to a concussion. His numbers understandably suffered upon return, but there was still promise if he could get healthy. Two stints on the DL with separate abdominal injuries in 2016 suggested that might not be such an easy feat to accomplish and he finished the year with a pretty dismal .266/.309/.352 batting line in Charlotte. He earned an invite to Spring Training and it looked like he’d maybe get a September call-up.

And then Charlie Tilson did what he’s done since coming over from the Cardinals in the Zach Duke trade: get unfortunately injured at a terrible time. The Sox felt confident enough about May that they sold Peter Bourjos to the Rays and just like that, May was the Opening Day starter in centerfield. This experiment lasted until May Day. Over 15 games, May managed to hit .056/.150/.056 with three walks to seventeen strikeouts. May’s game is completely speed based, but it’s all but impossible to make a difference on the base paths when you only get on base six times in 42 PA. May was painfully overmatched and mercifully sent back to Charlotte where he had the worst minor league season of his career while repeating a level he’d just played at one year prior. Bourjos hit .223/.272/.383 as Tampa’s reserve outfielder.

One of the more repeated and accepted truisms about roster construction is that unless that relief pitcher is the last missing puzzle piece for your championship team, you shouldn’t spend real money on your bullpen arms. There’s an entire ocean full of failed starters, third chance prospects, position players giving it one last go, and discarded international sensations to trawl up a more than serviceable relief corps out of and that’s been the White Sox modus operandi (give or take a David Robertson here and a Scott Linebrink there). Juan Minaya is one of the latest castaways to find a home in the Bullpen of Misfit Relievers.

Minaya signed with the Astros as a starting pitcher in the impossibly long ago year of 2008. After a couple years of middling results, Houston turned him into a reliever with mostly the same results. He was cut loose in late 2016 and the White Sox took a chance. He was fungible over 10.1 innings in the majors and was sent back to Charlotte to get more work. Something clicked. Over 19 innings, he allowed zero home runs and cut his walk rate almost in half. This understandably earned a promotion and Minaya pitched well enough in low leverage innings.

Once the continued selling off of parts reached the bullpen and the troika of Robertson, Anthony Swarzak, and Tommy Kahnle were gone, his role changed by necessity. Over his last 15 games of the season, Minaya more or less became the team’s default closer. He responded by earning 9 saves while striking out 13 hitters over 14.2 innings. It’s not all rainbows, as he gave up 7 earned runs in that stretch. But in his final 8 appearances, he gave up none. Minaya’s mid-90s fastball and low-80s breaking ball aren’t quite powerful enough to remain a full-time closer, but he’s shown enough promise to get innings as a seventh or eighth inning guy going forward.

Lead Photo Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Jace Fry on Tuesday became the eighth member of the 2017 White Sox to make his major league debut. That number doesn’t even include the more heralded young players on the roster, as Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez all saw time in the majors late in 2017. But nonetheless, I thought I’d take a look at those eight newcomers to the league, ranked in order of who I believe has the best chance of having a prolonged big league career.

1. Nicky Delmonico

Major league debut: Aug. 1
First plate appearance: Swinging strikeout against Toronto’s Marcus Stroman
First hit: Same day, single to center field against Toronto’s Ryan Tepera

Delmonico has simultaneously been the most surprising and most successful player to make his major league debut for the White Sox in 2017, hitting .307/.429/.573 with more walks than strikeouts in 91 plate appearances before going on the DL with a wrist injury (he’s expected back soon). Delmonico has been written about on a number of occasions in this space already this season, but it’s worth remembering he wasn’t among the White Sox Top 30 prospects even before the influx of talent, nor was he among the hundreds of players who received comment in last season’s BP Annual. However, he’s proven he can handle the bat at the major league level thus far, albeit in a very small sample size. While he’s limited defensively, whether it’s at an outfield or infield corner, he’s at least earned himself a further look going forward.

2. Aaron Bummer

Major league debut: July 27
First hitter faced: Chicago Cubs’ Anthony Rizzo, who struck out swinging
First strikeout: Rizzo

Bummer is one of the more fascinating players to debut this season. As a 19th round pick just three years ago, the odds of him making the majors, let alone this quickly, were incredibly slim. But he’s shown throughout his minor league career the ability to get left-handed hitters and as a potential LOOGY with three pitches and mid-90s heat, is obviously someone the White Sox see as a part of their future bullpen. He’s struggled through 18 appearances and 13 2/3 innings, with 10 strikeouts, nine walks, and a 6.59 ERA, but that’s to be expected given his inexperience. Like everyone else on this list, Bummer’s debut might not have happened if it weren’t for the state of the White Sox roster. Unlike most, however, his chances of sticking around are a little better than slim.

3. Willy Garcia

Major league debut: April 14
First plate appearance and hit: Same day, double to left-center against Minnesota’s Adalberto Mejia

The White Sox claimed Garcia off waivers from Pittsburgh in the offseason, and narrowly missed out on making the team out of spring training before making his debut just two weeks later when Melky Cabrera went on the paternity list. Garcia performed adequately in just 105 plate appearances, hitting .258/.317/.441 while playing passable if unspectacular defense in the corners. He’d undoubtedly still be getting run if it weren’t for the concussion he suffered in a nasty collision with Moncada, and the odds of him finding a role with a contending tim remain slim (sensing a theme here?) but for a player trying to prove himself for a non-contender, you could do a lot worse than Garcia has shown in 2017.

4. Adam Engel

Major league debut: May 27
First plate appearance: Swinging strikeout against Detroit’s Buck Farmer
First hit: Same day, a single to left field against Detroit’s Shane Greene

Engel actually scored his first career run before ever stepping foot in the batter’s box, appearing as a pinch runner and crossing home plate on a Leury Garcia triple in the first game of that day’s doubleheader. His first start, first plate appearance, and first hit came a few hours later in game two. Engel has gotten a lot of playing time for the rebuilding White Sox, something that might not have been the case on a team trying to compete. This is mostly because of his inability to handle the bat, and he’s proving that point through 246 plate appearances with a .170/.249/.284 line. Engel’s speed and defense plays, and he could very well find a spot on a major league roster beyond 2017 if his bat improves any. But right now, that seems like a long shot.

5. Dylan Covey

Major league debut: April 14
First hitter faced: Minnesota’s Brian Dozier, who singled to right field
First strikeout: Same day, Byron Buxton swinging

Cover was virtually guaranteed to be given every opportunity to stick around given his status as a Rule V pick in the offseason as well as the White Sox lack of pitching depth. A two month stint on the disabled list made it easy for them to avoid sending him back to Oakland despite his struggles. In 46 innings, Covey has a 8.41 ERA with 20 walks, 27 strikeouts, and an even-more-absurd-than-those-numbers 17 home runs allowed. Once the season ends, the White Sox will be able to send Covey to the minors with no repercussions, and he’ll likely continue his development and represent additional pitching depth going forward as a member of the Triple-A Charlotte Knights.

6. Jacob May

Major league debut: April 4
First plate appearance: Strikeout looking against Detroit’s Justin Verlander
First hit: April 22, single to right field against Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco

Remember when I said you could do a lot worse than Garcia if you’re a player trying to prove himself for a non-contender? You should. It was like five lines ago. Anyway, that’s May. The surprising Opening Day addition to the roster started his professional career 0-for-26 in 30 plate appearances before finally getting a hit as a pinch-hitter nearly three weeks later. He was back in Triple-A Charlotte just two weeks later and spent the rest of 2017 there. We spent a lot of ink wondering what the White Sox had in May in the days leading up to the start of the season, and he’s not unlike Engel in that both are outfielders with good speed and the potential to play solid defense. But May’s April (or is it April’s May?) was downright disastrous. If he never sees a major league field for the rest of his career, he’ll still have those two professional hits to remember for the rest of his life. For his sake, I’m hoping he gets another shot somewhere down the road.

7. Jace Fry

Major league debut: Sept. 5
First hitter faced: Cleveland’s Carlos Santana, who singled to left-center field
First strikeout: N/A

Fry, of course, is the most recent of the newcomers, facing three batters in Tuesday’s loss to the Indians. He allowed the single to Santana, got Giovanny Urshela to line out, and walked Lonnie Chisenhall before giving way to Chris Beck, who promptly allowed a three run homer to Yan Gomes. Fry spent the entirety of 2017 before Tuesday with Double-A Birmingham, and has undergone two Tommy John surgeries in the last five years. That fact alone gives him long odds of having any type of lengthy major league career, so his story is the kind that I’m talking about when I say I find joy in any major league debut.

8. Brad Goldberg

Major league debut: June 3
First hitter faced: Detroit’s Justin Upton, who hit a home run
First strikeout: June 22 against Kansas City’s Alex Gordon

The White Sox have seen a lot of bad pitching performances in 2017 but Goldberg’s 11 appearances put together were about as disastrous as they come. In 12 innings of work, Goldberg walked 14 hitters and struck out just three, and allowed 11 earned runs. He exited a game unscored upon in just four of those 11 appearances. 2017 wasn’t all bad for Goldberg, however, as he helped a really fun Team Israel qualify for the World Baseball Classic and tossed two scoreless innings during their run in pool play. There isn’t much positive to say about Goldberg’s major league career thus far, and it’s tough to say whether he’ll get another shot (the White Sox are sure to be bad again in 2018, and he is a reliever, so you never know), but he’ll always have that.

Lead Photo Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

May’s demotion became necessary as his playing time became more scarce. He had gone from April 23 to Monday without a start, and if he’s not going to get regular playing time in Chicago, and hardly providing much value off the bench, the only logic thing to do is send him back to Charlotte where he can re-gear in hopes of one day earning another opportunity.

For May to find success, he was always going to need prove he could be an above average defensive center fielder. His defense didn’t quite live up to the potential he showed in spring training, but his downfall was just flat out being overmatched at the plate, something Rick Renteria noted:

“He might have been a little overmatched,” said manager Rick Renteria, who gave increased playing time to Leury Garcia in center in the last week. “That’s just the bottom line. You want to make excuses for it. Might have been a little overmatched right now.

“He had a great spring, showed a lot of hard work, tenacity, even here going and working trying to get himself back on track, trying to keep his confidence up.”

The odds were always May becoming a major leaguer, and if nothing else, he’ll always have this month and his two hits. But here’s hoping he gets another shot at some point down the road.

2. What May’s demotion means for the present roster is that the White Sox are lacking a player other than Leury Garcia capable of playing center field. One would assume the impending roster move to replace May will address this, and the most logical choice is Willy Garcia, someone whose natural position isn’t center field, but he has logged 500 innings there during his minor league career, 54 of which have come this season in Charlotte.

The White Sox entered 2017 with a roster of … well, a rebuilding team. And center field was among their most fragile positions. With Charlie Tilson remaining out indefinitely and the May experiment failing, Leury, as well as Willy or whoever else gets called up, now has an opportunity to prove he can stick on a major league roster.

3. On the subject of thin depth, Dylan Covey made his fourth start of the season in Monday’s loss, allowing six earned runs in a career high 6.2 innings. Covey’s stuff isn’t going to generate a lot of swings and misses, but he found success pitching to contact during the first few innings, but left a hanger to Jorge Bonifacio and a changeup down the middle to Eric Hosmer that went out for a two-run homer that pretty much ended his night.

Covey has little margin for error, but for someone with his repertoire who was pitching in Double-A at this time last year, progress is progress.

4. Jose Abreu is good again. Before Monday’s 0-for-4, he registered six straight multi-hit games, including his first two home runs of the season in Saturday’s win over the Tigers. It being May 2 means players can nearly double their OPS in just two weeks time, and that’s exactly what Abreu did, going from a low of .380 on April 18 to .749 as of Tuesday.

This is only Abreu’s fourth season in the majors, but his season-to-season consistency have allowed us to sometimes take his productivity for granted. Considering he’s not on the wrong side of 30, it’s nice to see him get on one of his patented hot streaks. And whether the streak raises his trade stock enough to be dealt in July, or just simply have another above-average offensive season, it will be something worth enjoying.

5. Zack Collins was mentioned in the Monday Morning Ten Pack at Baseball Prospectus, and he’s walked 19 times in 86 plate appearances at Winston-Salem going into Monday. Collins’ advanced approach at the plate is something scouts have never disagreed about, but he’s still striking out a lot, which is why, along with his needing more work behind the plate, he remains in High-A.

The White Sox have made it clear time and time again that they believe in Collins as a catcher, but he’s a work in progress both offensively and defensively. Given the White Sox history at developing position players, as well as the scarcity of valuable catchers across the league, the importance of Collins’ development cannot be understated. Turning a good chunk of his plate appearances that don’t end in walks into other offensive production will be an important next step.

Lead Photo Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

When you’re throwing strikes down in the zone, particularly with the sinking fastball, you’re more than likely going to induce weak contact. Even the Yankees’ four base hits were of the weaker variety, and only one of them came on pitches in the upper half of the strike zone. Gonzalez threw 64.7 percent of his pitches on the night for strikes, which is exactly his career average, but what made this pitches successful is that he rarely left the ball up. More than half of his 88 pitches — 53 percent — came in that lower half, and when he missed, even that seemed to have a purpose, as he pounded left-handed hitters inside or swept a curve or slider far outside to the righties.

As was the case last season, for Gonzalez to be effective he needs to locate, something that’s becoming an increasingly familiar theme this season with fellow veteran junk-ballers James Shields and Derek Holland on the staff. For pitchers without swing-and-miss stuff to find success, they have to be deceptive enough to keep hitters off-balance with both location and speed, and on Tuesday, Gonzalez did as such with the 76-mph curveball and 80-mph slider, mixing and matching that with his fastball-sinker combo in the low 90s.

It’s a fine balance to strike. That type of repertoire rarely allows a day of lost command without suffering a number of walks or a few dingers. But for one day, at least, Gonzalez had it all working.

2. We’re not yet to the point of the season where Avisail Garcia’s hot start can be considered more than a hot start, but every day in which he produces is a step toward him shutting everyone up, present company included.

Nine days ago when he was hitting .474 five games into the season, I looked back through five-game samples from a year ago and it didn’t even take me until the end of April to find a streak similar to the one he was on then. I did the same thing following Tuesday’s game and, well, it still didn’t take me until the end of April to find one similar. From April 25 through May 10 of last season, Garcia slashed .439/.489/.732 with two home runs, four walks, and five strikeouts in 47 plate appearances.

What Garcia has shown during this stretch, though, has been impressive. On Tuesday, he yanked one of Luis Severino’s few mistakes, a hanging slider, into the left field seats for a three-run homer that ended up being the difference in the win.

Garcia should get credit for crushing a pitch he should crush — good hitters do that to mistake pitches — but also for selling out and showing off good pull power, something he’s been unable to do with regularity throughout his career.

We’re taking baby steps with Garcia. I don’t know how long it will take for me, personally, to believe his hot streak is going to translate into a full season of success. But any progress is a good thing.

3. Jacob May didn’t play Tuesday, but is now 27 plate appearances into his major league career — 24 at-bats — without a base hit. The streak is the 12th longest hitless streak to start a career in major league history, excluding pitchers. For what it’s worth, May has seemed to be keeping a level head and is saying all the right things despite his struggles.

“If you keep looking at it as a negative, then it’s going to be a negative,” May said. “If you feel like there is no such thing as a negative, you can learn from any experience you are going through. It’s going to make me a better person, a better player, a better teammate. It is what it is. I can’t change those last at-bats. All I can do is show up today, get my work done and give my best effort. At this point, I’m going to keep attacking it.”

The odds of May becoming a major league caliber player were long to begin with, and to say they’ve gotten off to a rough start would be an understatement. In a nut shell, reacting to a 27-plate appearance streak isn’t the wisest decision. But every player is a unique case, and it’s entirely possible May’s lack of success is a sign he can’t hack it as a major leaguer. In fact, one could even say it’s likely that is the case.

4. I’ve repeated it twice in this post alone and many times during the first few weeks, but we’re still several weeks away from individual stats stabilizing to more normal levels, but it’s hard, even now, to ignore the rough starts by Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu.

Abreu went 0-for-4 on Tuesday, including an embarrassing sacrifice bunt attempt he apparently undertook on his own immediately preceding Garcia’s home run, and is now 8-for-51 with one extra-base hit and 14 strikeouts on the season. Anderson, coincidentally, is also 8-for-51 with one extra-base hit, one walk, and 13 strikeouts.

Abreu and Anderson couldn’t be more different in terms of their age, stature, and profile, but each player’s performance is worth monitoring for different reasons. With Abreu, like Garcia, it didn’t take me to the end of April 2016 to find a streak similar to this one, but the fact that he’s an immobile slugger now on the wrong side of 30 and is apparently in his own head enough to attempt something like that bunt provides at least some reason for concern.

Anderson’s case is completely different. The concern for him lies more in the fact that he’s to this point more unproven than proven as a major-league hitter. After a fine rookie season, there remains quite a bit of hope that he’s able to take another step forward in his development with a full season as the team’s starting shortstop, but 430 successful plate appearances does not a star make (Gordon Beckham had one fewer plate appearance than Anderson in his rookie season and a virtually idential OPS+).

Again, not yet time to worry about Abreu nor Anderson, but it’d be pretty cool if either or both broke out of their funks sooner than later.

5. Old friend and compatriot James Fegan has been traipsing about North Carolina all week, getting a first-hand look at the prospects in Winston-Salem and Charlotte. Among his work is a Q&A with Dash manager and the guy who scored the game-winning run in Game 4 of the 2005 World Series, Willie Harris, a look at the progress Zach Collins is making at catcher, and a profile of young outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe. They are worth your time.

Lead Photo Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

1. Jacob May saw his fair share of playing time this weekend. It did not, however, yield good results for the 25-year-old center fielder. May has now gone 0-for-24 on the season. The two main arguments for him making the team to start the season were his hot spring and defensively abilities. His hot spring pretty clearly seems to be explained by feasting on below average pitching. His defense has certainly been OK, but it hasn’t been fantastic. It nearly cost the White Sox the win in Sunday’s game when he misjudged and dove for what ended up being a Brian Dozier inside-the-park home run. In every facet of the game, it was clear that May is overwhelmed by the big leagues. The White Sox don’t have a ton of options, but Leury Garcia can certainly handle the majority of the starts in center field while May figures himself out for awhile in Triple-A.

2. Before the season began, there were certain things that were identifiable as things that would be great for the White Sox and still somewhat plausible. One was that Shields could put together a first half of the season impressive enough to see him flipped at the deadline. So far, he’s doing exactly that. In three starts, Shields has pitched 16 ⅔ while giving up just three runs. It’s a bit early to tell any real trends in terms of walking and striking out batters, but so far the strikeout rate has improved. He’s still allowing too many baserunners, especially via the walk. It’s possible that this is simply because he’s leaving less pitches over the plate, and he has managed to work out of those situations.  The walks and inflated pitch counts are something to keep an eye on, but for now, Shields’ results look like the guy he was before being traded to the South Side.

3. Quintana has not had himself a great start to the season. He’s among the worst in every stat that it’s too early to even be looking at, including his 6.75 ERA. He hasn’t looked great. There’s no way around that. The biggest question, of course, is how this affects his trade value. The answer, for now, is that it really doesn’t. Every single pitcher in the big leagues has had a bad stretch — some even worse than Quintana’s current one. Scouts from the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, and whomever else know who Quintana is as a pitcher. That is not in question at this point. It’s going to take a much longer and far worse stretch from the White Sox ace to keep teams from at least mildly pursuing him.

4. In the prospect world, Reynaldo Lopez had a solid start in Charlotte on Sunday. He went six innings, giving up two runs while walking two and striking out four. Later in that same game, Zack Burdi blew a save and eventually gave up a walk-off triple. In Winston-Salem, Zack Collins walked for what seems like the millionth time, hit a double, and struck out twice.

5. I bet you thought I was gonna go this whole article without talking about Avisail Garcia. Well, I’m not. Against all odds, Garcia has put together quite a start to the 2017 season. He’s hit safely in every single White Sox game, except for one. In the game he didn’t register a hit, he was one of just two players to reach first base. In Sunday’s game he played the hero when he hit a two run homer in the 10th inning.

In a real life baseball game, a team opted to pitch to Jose Abreu rather than face Garcia in a potential double play situation. Some Twins fans even argued on Twitter that Garcia should have been intentionally walked! That is the world we are living in with this hot streak. Who knows if it will last for another half a season, month, week, or even for another single day. What there is to know is that a player who has been beaten down by fans, analysts, and maybe even himself over the past few seasons is tearing it up. Perhaps it’s the pressure to perform off his back. Perhaps it’s the need to prove people wrong. Whatever it is, it’s working for Garcia right now. It’s hard to predict the future. This streak is probably just a streak rather than a start of a whole different Garcia. Either way, it’s hard to not be happy for a guy finally punishing the ball after what has been a tumultuous start to his major league career.

Lead Photo Credit: Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports

1. Derek Holland had another strong outing, taking a no hitter into the 6th inning.  Given that his best 3-year run of success was from 2011-2013 and he has lost multiple seasons to injury, it is easy to forget that he’s only 30 and was once quite good.  The outing was an emotional one for the Ohio native, who lost his grandmother this spring and had family in attendance to watch his victory.

Comeback stories are always good, but from a selfish, organizational perspective it would a huge win if Holland can stay healthy and effective. It would mean he had covered much needed innings for the first half of the season and could potentially yield something meaningful at the deadline.  For a rebuilding team that’s pretty much a best case scenario for a 1-year signing.

2. Center field may be a problem.  Batting average isn’t everything, but it’s hard to ignore it when it’s zero.  Jacob May got the day off last night in favor of Leury Garcia.  One imagines that the plan was for these two to cover center until Charlie Tilson came back, but it’s still unclear how long that is going to take.  And even though wins and losses are a secondary concern this year, there are limits to what a team can tolerate in good faith for the sake of its fans and the other players on the roster.

It’s still early, but even before his 0-for-17 start there was reason to doubt that May was ready for the majors.  And as much as I’d like to see Garcia get regular at bats now that he’s conquered AAA, being a full-time center fielder might be too much to ask.  Unfortunately, short of going outside the organization, their options are rather limited.  Charlotte offers Adam Engel–who, outside of one great Arizona Fall League appearance–has never really hit at all, despite being old for every level, and Jason Bourgeois, a 35-year-old who has not played in the majors since 2015.

Here’s hoping it doesn’t come to that.

3. Geovany Soto was scratched yesterday with a sore right elbow and is headed to the 10-day DL, with Kevan Smith getting a shot at a few more big league games. This illustrates some of the potential logic behind Soto getting more starts than one might have anticipated to this point.  Sure, Omar Narvaez is the player who will be with the organization after this year, but you don’t want him catching 140+ games, and Soto is so injury prone you might as well use him while he’s healthy.  Narvaez will still get plenty of reps.

UPDATE: Immediately after this piece ran, it was announced that Soto’s right elbow inflammation was sufficient to place him on the disabled list, and Kevan Smith has been called up to take his place.  Smith, as you’ll recall, was one of the many rookies last year who was injured immediately, indeed, injuring his back before he could even make his debut.  Smith is listed at 6’4″ and he was a two-sport athlete in college. There’s still a chance there’s a backup catcher in here.

So far this year he has mashed at AAA to the tune of .438/.500/.562 in very limited action.

4. Avisail Garcia and Matt Davidson can both still boast an OPS over 1.000.  Their track records and identical 1:7 BB:K ratios throw cold water on any undue enthusiasm, but a good start is a good start.  Davidson has languished for so long in AAA after his Top 100 Prospect ascent to the majors in 2013 with the Diamondbacks.  He has alluded to putting too much pressure on himself before, so one hopes that hitting the ground running (and ideally not breaking his foot) can allow him to recover some of his old prospect shine.  After all, the criticism on him coming up was that it didn’t look like he could handle third defensively, meaning his bat would have to move to 1B/DH where it was much less impressive.  Davidson then improved his defense to the point where it could play at third and his bat promptly imploded.  Perhaps it isn’t too late to get his bat on track to pair with a serviceable glove at the hot corner.

5. Anthony Swarzak made his White Sox debut last night and posted two strikeouts in one perfect inning.  Swarzak, Zach Putnam, and David Robertson have combined for 10.33 scoreless innings this year, striking out 16 and walking none.  Yet another area to monitor for potential trade assets at the deadline, and another way in which the White Sox still do not wholly resemble a “tanking” roster.

Lead Photo Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

As Collin discussed in the above article, May is being called up for his speed and his defense.  After all, whoever is in center for the 2017 White Sox is likely to be flanked by awful gloves in left and right, albeit while playing home games in a tiny outfield.

However, as the White Sox have demonstrated since George W. Bush left office, there are degrees of futility worth considering beyond “replacement level” as they have plumbed the depths beneath it.  And, in May’s case, PECOTA hates his bat, projecting a .223/.275/.336 line as a median outcome for 2017.

For context, Adeiny Hechavarria was the worst qualified full-time hitter last year, batting .236/.283/.311.  And, generally, the players putting up the worst offensive stats in a given year will tend to be very good defenders at difficult positions, usually during a bad year.  And while it’s true that if May is a great glove in center field, it would not make him anomalously bad, just another one of these defense only players — the Tigers and Cubs both carried players who fit this description for all of ’16 — May’s defense being great is still speculation.  May has the tools to be a good defender in center, but it is premature to describe him as plus there at present.  And until a player demonstrates a skill, there is no guarantee that it will arrive.

Even if things break well, and May is a good glove, PECOTA foresees his 90th percentile outcome at the dish as .279/.326/.411. Which means that the realistic best case scenario is that May replicates roughly what Austin Jackson was doing last year before he got hurt.  And granted, PECOTA isn’t perfect — prospects are much more than their stat lines, and they learn and change all the time.  May is a good athlete.  Maybe he blows away his 90th percentile projection. But that is still a statement predicated on hope rather than evidence, other than finding his hot streaks in the minors. And it’s not like he ever made any Top 100 lists or anything like that.

There’s also downside, too. Not every player hits their 50th percentile projection. There’s also a chance he gets shredded down below the Mendoza line.

All of this would matter more if the White Sox were trying to win in 2017.  And while Rick Hahn has repeatedly said that they are no longer going to rush prospects based on major league needs, I wouldn’t necessarily throw this in his face as a contradiction. Sure, May has not yet demonstrated he can excel against Triple-A pitching, but he is not valuable enough of a prospect to play service time games with, and if James Fegan’s interview with May is any indication, he is a smart enough player to handle the adversity of getting blown away in the majors.  At the very least he looks to be getting regular at bats in the majors, rather than sporadic playing time.

And maybe Tilson makes a recovery in two months and this is all just temporary anyway, and maybe May learns valuable things in the majors, and maybe the White Sox get a good read on what May can be, and maybe they learn for sure that he can be a good fourth outfielder someday.

Maybe. Maybe.

Lead Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

POSITION PLAYERS

Omar Narvaez
PECOTA projections: 376 PA, .240/.307/.335, 6 HR, 33 RBI, -1.2 WARP

When asked last week about what, if anything, the White Sox learned from the Great Catching Failure of 2016, general manager Rick Hahn reiterated that the White Sox do, in fact, care very much about framing and catcher defense and that the ill-fated decision to downgrade in that department from Tyler Flowers to Dioner Navarro and Alex Avila was an attempt to generate more offense. Hahn noted that the White Sox have had success in developing catcher defense, reminding us that when Flowers entered the White Sox system he was considered a bat-first prospect who might have trouble sticking at catcher defensively. This is a fair point, and it’s certainly possible that the Sox bet on their ability to teach both Navarro and Avila how to better frame pitches. But apparently you can’t teach an old dog new tricks … or something. If the White Sox want to better prove their point, Narvaez is about the best guinea pig imaginable. Narvaez graded out at a below-average pitch framer in his limited major league time in 2016 (minus-4.1 FRAA), but he’s still young enough that writing him off in that department might be premature. Catcher is a notoriously thin position across the league, so if Narvaez can remain what he was offensively in 2016 — plenty of walks, little power — and improve his defense, it would be considered a win for the White Sox. - Collin Whitchurch

Geovany Soto
PECOTA projections: 193 PA, .223/.289/.384, 6 HR, 23 RBI, -0.1 WARP

The White Sox aren’t asking for much from Soto: give Narvaez some days off, mentor him a bit, and don’t be as terrible as Dioner Navarro. And as long as Soto doesn’t get hurt, those are all pretty easy bars to clear. Anything he adds on offense is just bonus points. -Mark Primiano

Jose Abreu
PECOTA projections: 633 PA, .288/.349/.495, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 3.4 WARP

We’ve seen different calibers of Abreu over his three years in the majors, and while his second half resurgence makes PECOTA’s projection eminently reasonable, there’s still reasonable hope for more. His contact skills and power should still be there, and if he gets a little more luck with his health in 2017, we could see something closer to his 2014 than the past couple of seasons, which would firmly pull him back toward, “Fearsome Beast” instead of “Solidly plus 1B bat.” And as sad as it is to contemplate, it wouldn’t hurt if he boosted his trade value either. And if he’s hitting .310/.360/.550 at the All-Star break instead of the above, he might command something quite interesting (and maybe get to play in the playoffs for someone). -Nick Schaefer

Tyler Saladino
PECOTA projections: 300 PA, .257/.305/.391, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 1.3 WARP

With Brett Lawrie’s release, Saladino went from “supersub waiting for Frazier to get traded” to “starting second baseman hoping Frazier gets traded pretty close to when Moncada comes up so he can be the starting third baseman.” He can certainly handle it defensively, and the question becomes what caliber and shape his offense take. Saladino is no stranger to injury himself, but if he can play 140-plus games while providing league average offense and a plus glove, he is suddenly a legitimate regular and not just a plus utility player, although third would certainly put more pressure on his bat. -Nick Schaefer

Tim Anderson
PECOTA projections: 626 PA, .267/.288/.404, 14 HR, 57 RBI, 1.0 WARP

Anderson will very likely be the most interesting player on the Opening Day roster. Of the position players, he’s the most likely to stick around for awhile — as seen by his recent contract extension. With that said, the White Sox don’t need Anderson to blow the league away in 2017. The nice thing about finally breaking down and rebuilding is that there is no longer intense pressure on prospects to rapidly reach their ceiling. Anderson is never going to post strikeout and walk rates like Jose Altuve, but it is one glaring area for improvement. Last year he walked 13 times in 431 plate appearances. A successful season sees him improve that to 30 over a full season while keeping his strikeout rate the same, if not lower. It wouldn’t hurt to see the surprising power from a season ago make a return either. More than anything a successful season for Anderson involves him avoiding a sophomore slump and taking a step forward rather than backward. -Ryan Schultz

Todd Frazier
PECOTA projections: 551 PA, .247/.312/.449, 27 HR, 84 RBI, 1.8 WARP

It still feels weird that the White Sox went from a team that was consistently full of mashers to one absolutely lacking in power hitters. The Sox finished 13th in the AL in home runs and 11th in ISO last season, numbers that make it pretty damn hard to put together a half-decent offense. Frazier did his part, putting up a career high 40 home runs, though the rest of his batting stats continued a worrisome decline from their 2014 high. Frazier is in his walk year on a rebuilding team, so a successful season would involve putting up a strong enough first half (which would be in line with his career splits of .833 vs .721 OPS per half) to bring back a useful player or two for the future. -Mark Primiano

Melky Cabrera
PECOTA projections: 540 PA, .288/.332/.422, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 1.5 WARP

In his last year of his contract, a good season for Cabrera is one in which he stays healthy, strokes a couple clutch hits for the White Sox, entertains us in the outfield, and plays well for a contender after he gets shipped out in July for a couple B prospects. More concisely: “90 percent of 2016 Carlos Beltran’s production, but with funnier facial expressions and more pratfalls.” (Beltran had a .293 tAV when he was traded last year, and Cabrera’s 90th percentile tAV per PECOTA is .294) -Frank Firke

Avisail Garcia
PECOTA projections: 432 PA, .263/.311/.404, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 0.5 WARP

I honestly have no clue what would indicate a successful season for Garcia at this point. Hitting 20 home runs while being passable in the outfield would certainly be successful, but that doesn’t seem entirely plausible. For White Sox fans, the Avisail Garcia experiences has been nothing but disappointment. However, now that the focus has shifted from achieving the greatest possible outcome from fill-in players in the interest of competing for a playoff position to simply rebuilding for the future, the picture changes a bit. The White Sox are no longer being crippled by allowing Garcia to play despite his troubles at the plate and in the field. They’re free to allow him to play and perhaps find the player they saw when they chose him over Jose Iglesias. On the flip side, perhaps a truly horrible season from Garcia is the most successful in that it sees the White Sox finally give up on him. -Ryan Schultz

Jacob May
PECOTA projections: 206 PA, .233/.275/.336, 3 HR, 19 RBI, -0.6 WARP

May will be one of the most watched players heading north with the big club after his surprising ascension to the Opening Day roster. But even after his impressive spring both offensively and defensively, the odds will be stacked against May given his season-long struggles with the bat in 2016 during his first season at Triple-A. Still, the White Sox have shown enough faith in him to give an opportunity that probably wouldn’t be afforded him during a year with contention in mind, and if he’s able to hold down a roster spot all season long, that’d be a major accomplishment. -Collin Whitchurch

Matt Davidson
PECOTA projections: 396 PA, .208/.283/.372, 17 HR, 59 RBI, -0.7 WARP

After so many setbacks, success for Davidson is probably qualifying for an MLB pension, but that happens if he makes it through April on the active roster. If we’re a little more ambitious, it’s staying on the roster all year. From there, two paths: one with a stretch goal of replacement level (which PECOTA says is a top quartile outcome) and a best case scenario of an average bat, decent reps at third base, and a spot on someone’s roster next year. The other path’s best outcome? Well, Dayan Viciedo posted an .838 OPS in Japan last year. -Frank Firke

Cody Asche
PECOTA projections: 101 PA, .247/.305/.410, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 0.1 WARP

The White Sox have plenty of players who will get an opportunity to prove they belong on a major league roster in 2017. While there’s still a bit of an unknown element in the likes of Narvaez, Davidson, or May, Asche doesn’t quite fit that mold. With nearly 1,300 plate appearances to his credit, Asche falls more in a category with Avisail Garcia as someone who has experienced enough failure during his career to where hope of success is mostly gone. In fact, in about 250 fewer career plate appearances than Garcia, Asche has a lower OPS+. Anything remotely positive he’s able to provide would be considered a shocking success. -Collin Whitchurch

Leury Garcia
PECOTA projections: 94 PA, .246/.286/.359, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 0.0 WARP

More than half of Garcia’s 331 career plate appearances came during the 2014 season, when he hit a paltry .166/.192/.207 with a ridiculous 15 OPS+, while also playing every position on the field except first base and catcher. But after being considered a guy with a solid glove at most spots on the field but a terrible bat for most of his minor league career, he’s been solid at the plate in each of his previous two seasons at Triple-A Charlotte. Garcia’s career probably won’t amount to much, but it’s not impossible that he carves out a nice career as a utility guy given his positional versatility if he’s able to hold his own with the bat. The odds are still against that happening, but he’s likely to get the best opportunity of his career to prove it with this year’s team. -Collin Whitchurch

Yolmer Sanchez
PECOTA projections: 186 PA, .246/.286/.371, 4 HR, 18 RBI, -0.1 WARP

Sanchez has been in the White Sox system long enough that it’s hard to believe he’s still just 24, younger than Leury Garcia, Tyler Saladino, and Jacob May. When the White Sox signed Sanchez, they were just a year removed from their last playoff appearance! Still, while Sanchez’ opportunities have and will continue to come from the uncertainty of the White Sox second base situation (until, ya know, Yoan Moncada comes up), his ceiling is almost certainly that of a backup infielder. Proving that he can stick around to provide even that, and put an end to his ping-ponging between Chicago and Charlotte, would be a big step for Sanchez. -Collin Whitchurch

PITCHERS

Jose Quintana
PECOTA projections: 189 IP, 12-11, 3.95 ERA, 181 K, 50 BB, 2.4 WARP

Quintana received a fifth-place Cy Young vote last season, something simultaneously irrelevant and so very meaningful. It was meaningful solely because it showed that Quintana, who has put together four consecutive seasons that prove he’s an established, above-average starter, is finally starting to get some of the recognition that goes with that kind of performance. The spotlight will shine even brighter on Quintana this season as the bonafide No. 1 starter on this White Sox team. Quintana is easy to root for, and while a realistic expectation from the White Sox perspective includes him shoving for the first half and getting dealt in July for a plethora of prospects from a desperate contender, the personal expectation includes him continuing to ascend to the point where it’s no longer noteworthy when he’s rightfully mentioned in the same breathe as the top pitchers in the American League, regardless of what team’s uniform he’s wearing by the end of the season. -Collin Whitchurch

Carlos Rodon
PECOTA projections: 177 IP, 11-11, 3.92 ERA, 187 K, 64 BB, 2.3 WARP

This time last week a successful season would be a breakout — 180-plus innings, 200 strikeouts, an ERA below 3.40. Even with the good news that his MRIs came up clean and a diagnosis of bursitis, perhaps health and further incremental progress should be sufficient for White Sox fans. After all, he doesn’t have to hit his ceiling this year. He just needs to keep getting closer to that point. Or he could see a jump in his fastball command and feel for his change and morph into an ace now. That is also welcome. -Nick Schaefer

Miguel Gonzalez
PECOTA projections: 148 IP, 8-11, 4.63 ERA, 121 K, 49 BB, 0.6 WARP

After the release of John Danks and the downward spiraling fiasco that was Mat Latos, the White Sox rotation went through it’s growing pains at the back end in 2016. But that was before Gonzalez was officially named to the starting rotation. The Orioles quickly released Gonzalez after his ERA and peripherals shot up to around the 5 mark in 2015, though Gonzalez had no significant or apparent injury. When Gonzalez joined the White Sox rotation he was just the unexpected surprise that the a weary team needed, tossing 135 innings (his inning total would have been higher if not for a groin injury that sidelined him for a handful of starts) to end the season with a very balanced 3.73 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and 3.99 DRA. Gonzalez’s success could have been a fluke, and it may still come in waves, but Gonzalez managed to keep his ground ball numbers steady at 40 percent, and lowered his HR/FB rate to just 6.8 percent, down from 15 percent in 2015. Locating his pitches will be a key factor for Gonzalez, who went from 27 walks in the first half of 2016 to just 8 in the second half. Starting in the two spot until Carlos Rodon is healthy may not be the prettiest sight for the White Sox, but flipping a pitcher such a Gonzalez to the third starter spot is a whole different animal of expectation, and could be a quite comfortable roll for Gonzalez in 2017. -Cat Garcia

Derek Holland
PECOTA projections: 101 IP, 5-7, 4.72 ERA, 79 K, 32 BB, 0.3 WARP

Another White Sox-esque acquisition that is more of reclamation project than anything after eight seasons in Texas, Holland leaves the White Sox to salvage the remains of a now-injury riddled starter who last threw 200 innings back in 2013. However, if anyone can help maintain the health of a pitcher such as Holland, pitching coach Don Cooper is the man for the task. PECOTA shows Holland nearly replicating his 2016 with Texas this year, a performance that caused the Rangers to decline Holland’s $11 million contract option in favor of a of $1.5 million buyout, leaving Holland free to the open market for the first time in his career. With Holland likely bumping to the fourth spot once the White Sox rotation gets settled in, repeating his 2016 wouldn’t be utterly disastrous for a fourth starter on a one-year deal with a team not looking to contend. One concern with a Holland-type is that should he only start around 100 innings as PECOTA predicts, he defeats the purpose of absorbing the lack of sharp stuff for an inning eater type who is able to spare your bullpen of a few unnecessary outings. -Cat Garcia

James Shields
PECOTA projections: 174 IP, 9-12, 5.04 ERA, 154 K, 68 BB, -0.2 WARP

Shields had a 6.77 ERA on the South Side last year, but he was unlucky — if you use BP’s all-inclusive DRA metric, it should’ve been more like 6.73. Still, in 2015 he was worth 1.8 WARP for the Padres. That’s about his upper bound (90th percentile outcome in PECOTA is 2.0 WARP), and so the best case scenario is probably that he pitches that well, moves up the active complete games leaderboard (he’s tied for fifth, and if everything breaks right he can get as high as third), and gets some nice buzz for mentoring some of the White Sox prospects. More realistically, Shields gave up two homers per 9 last year (2.4 as a White Sox) and failed to clear 200 IP over a full season for the first time. If he can clear the latter benchmark and cut the homers by 25 percent or so, the White Sox will have gotten what they need out of him. -Frank Firke

David Robertson
PECOTA projections: 61 IP, 3.48 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 74 K, 0.9 WARP

A return to form. Robertson’s 2016 season was a lost year due to trying to pitch through a knee injury. The results? His lowest K/9 since 2013 and his highest BB/9 since 2011. With him being fully healthy once more, one would expect (hope?) those numbers correct themselves back towards where they belong. If they do, that could go a long way towards helping the rebuild effort because there’s never a shortage of contending teams looking for bullpen help come July. -Mark Primiano

Nate Jones
PECOTA projections: 64 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 73 K, 1.3 WARP

A successful season for Jones likely sees him with another team by August 1. Despite David Robertson having that elusive title of closer, Jones appears to be the more valuable asset. A solid first half of the season where he stays healthy and avoids bad outings could be more than enough to fetch some solid prospects in a trade, especially given the development of the reliever market that we’ve seen over the past couple seasons. If Jones does stick around, for whatever reason, a successful season is essentially just one where he remains healthy. So far he’s been a Tommy John success story, but that can change at the drop of a hat. -Ryan Schultz

Dan Jennings, Zach Putnam, Jake Petricka, Anthony Swarzak, Dylan Covey, Michael Ynoa

I mean no disrespect to these six pitchers by lumping them all together at the end, but the fact of the matter is we’re at 3,000 words and relievers are so unpredictable that I could probably have put a giant shrug emoji in this space. Success for this group is that they all stay healthy and effective enough to eat innings and maybe one or two of them find enough success to fetch something of value at the trade deadline. Maybe one of them emerges into something more. In the cases of Jennings, Putnam, and Petricka, you already have established major league relievers with a good chance of remaining somewhat valuable. For the other three, sticking around for the season would be a profound success. -Collin Whitchurch

Lead Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

But the White Sox decision to send away a player many had pegged to start in center field on Opening Day did come as a bit of a surprise. It was surprising from the perspective of the White Sox in that this move, coupled with Charlie Tilson’s injury, would seem to signal the team is planning to head north with both Leury Garcia and Jacob May. It’s surprising from the Rays’ perspective in that it showed a team wanted Bourjos.

The deal in and of itself amounts to little more than the Rays jumping to the front of the line in the waiver order. Tampa needed outfield depth in the wake of Colby Rasmus’s injury that will see the outfielder start the season on the disabled list and apparently had their sights set on Bourjos to fill that role. The White Sox, conversely, made a decision to go with youth and, instead of cutting Bourjos, sent him to the Rays for the oft-traveled cash.

We’ll likely have a more firm idea of what the White Sox are planning in coming days — maybe Tuesday morning when the trade is announced — but unless there’s another move in the works, one should be able to logically assume that both Garcia and May will break camp with the Sox, given that they’re the only two players left in camp who can play center field.

The logic behind turning the page from Bourjos is sound. The White Sox talked a big game all winter about going all-in on this rebuild and, while the outgoing player in the deal isn’t one that’s going to turn any heads, the decision to turn the position over to this duo, either one or both, is one you could adequately describe as bold.

Garcia is the more well known of the pair. He’s garnered 331 plate appearances across parts of four seasons with the Sox since hew as acquired for Alex Rios in August 2013. His career line of .188./.225/.237 and 31 percent strikeout rate leaves one starving for optimism. He’s struggled to hit through a vast majority of his minor league career, but has been fine at Triple-A during his stints there the last two seasons. Now 26, the chances of him being a major league contributor are slim.

May is a bit more of an enigma. The 25-year-old has also struggled with the bat throughout his career, and went .266/.309/.352 in 321 plate appearances during his first go at Triple-A a year ago. But at the very least, his glove should play, and the White Sox apparently couldn’t ignore the way he’s hit this spring. In fact, both Garcia and May have done almost identically well, with the former hitting .339/.355/.424 and the latter .339/.361/.525. It’s impossible to overstate how little spring stats matter — May put up similar numbers a year ago before his lackluster Triple-A season — but the difference, of course, is that the White Sox have far less at stake this time around. So long as the White Sox are confident May can handle the successes or likely failures that come with a major league job, it’s a shot worth taking.

The smart money is on neither Garcia nor May being major league contributors at any point. Garcia is a non-prospect and May is heading down that road — he’s not mentioned anywhere in Baseball Prospectus’ system write-up and is ranked No. 26 in the White Sox system by MLBPipeline.com. Likewise, while Tilson’s health has been a concern since virtually the first moment he donned a White Sox uniform, it’s entirely possible he’s back in the mix within a few weeks and one or both are back in the minors.

But in a season that was lost before it started, there are worse decisions that can be made than giving the likes of those two opportunities ahead of 29-year-old journeymen.

Lead Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Given that neither embarrassed himself on the mound, allowing just a run each in four appearances, nor did they say anything stupid, get injured, and wound up on the winning side, it’s fair to say it was a successful trip for the duo. The Sox got both regular work in the few games before the WBC began and we’ll see if the Sox choose to get either into a Cactus League game again during the week of action remaining before Opening Day.

2. We’re closing in on single digit days remaining until the season begins, and the White Sox have made a number of cuts to their Spring Training roster, including sending heralded prospects Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, and Carson Fulmer down earlier this week.

Those five were joined on Wednesday by another round of similarly unsurprising cuts, with Adam Engel, Wrestling Enthusiast Tommy Kahnle, Jace Fry, and Roberto Pena being reassigned to minor league camp. The Sox spring roster is now at 37.

3. The one guy who has survived those cuts thus far who may be a bit surprising is Jacob May, who seems to be at least in the mix for the major league roster, if not as the starting center fielder at least for a spot on the bench. The White Sox have three outfielders remaining on the roster who can play center field in May, Peter Bourjos, and Leury Garcia.

May has gotten plenty of playing time this spring and taken advantage of the opportunity, hitting .340/.367/.511 in 47 at-bats (second most on the team). That, of course, means very little, and May is not at all far removed from an underwhelming first pass at Triple-A when he hit .266/.309/.352 in 321 plate appearances. But the injury to Charlie Tilson bumped him up a notch on the depth chart and when you consider the alternatives — a 30-year-old Bourjos or Garcia and his .462 career OPS in 331 major league plate appearances — it makes sense for the Sox to take a closer look, regardless of the outcome.

4. It took some creativity for the White Sox and Tim Anderson to come to terms on the six-year, $25 million extension the shortstop inked on Tuesday. The deal will keep Anderson in Chicago through at least 2022, with options for 2023 and 2024, and showed once again the White Sox’ eagerness to lock up players they think can be major players on their next contender.

The circumstances surrounding the team at the time of Anderson’s deal, compared to those given to Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Adam Eaton in the past, are obviously different, but this is a clear signal that the White Sox have big expectations for Anderson’s role in their future. And with a plethora of young talent coming up behind him, it’s reasonable to assume they’ll have similar goals as the new core transitions into major league roles.

5. Nick Schaefer and I were given an opportunity to write the White Sox season preview for BP’s main site, which you should totally read here. The theme of this year’s series was “Looking Back on Tomorrow,” meaning essentially, for what will this year’s team be most remembered?

It’s easy to look at this year’s team and feel sanguine. Despite the absence of hope for the 2017 team specifically, there’s been an air of optimism for the future, because of the amount of young talent we’ve all gotten our first glimpse of during camp. But the thing I keep coming back to is “just keep going.” And I don’t mean that in the sense of “get as bad as possible, go full Astros, Cubs, Braves.” Maybe that’s not the path the White Sox take. And maybe it’s not the path they need to take. Having multiple 100-loss seasons in a row isn’t always necessary. What is necessary is that whatever direction the White Sox choose, whatever decisions they make, that they stick to them and continue down that path. The start of this rebuild is important, but it’s seeing it through to fruition that will matter in the long run.

Lead Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo/USA Today Sports Images