Instead, Shields unsurprisingly got worse. It’s almost like moving a pitcher who is struggling in San Diego while getting to face pitchers isn’t going to thrive on the South Side in a league that happens to feature the designated hitter. Who would have thunk it? We all remember how things went after that. Shields fell apart, giving up 31 home runs in only 114.1 innings and the team cratered with him. Sale and Adam Eaton were shipped out for prospect bonanzas mere months later and the White Sox were finally entering the first honest rebuild of our lifetimes. Johnson got hurt and likely won’t matter. Tatis wound up developing into A Guy and a global level prospect that would be right up there with Eloy Jimenez as a crown jewel in the system. Whoops!

Shields became a punching bag for Sox fans and his 2017 follow-up, while an improvement, was still terrible. The anger and resentment continued to grow despite the Padres kicking in enough money that his contract wasn’t actually that burdensome (and the fact that the Sox weren’t going to be spending money on any major contracts any time soon making the anger very misplaced). 2018 was going to be the season of the young gun pitchers with Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez each throwing their first full major league seasons and Rodon coming back from injury. The bullpen would have to cover more innings for the youngsters meaning someone had to soak up innings on the roster and who better to provide veteran sponge-manship than Shields?

To his credit, Shields wore it well. From all credible reports, he embraced the absolute hell out of his new role as positive veteran mentor and did his part. Yes, he was still below league average but only slightly so this year (93 ERA+). Is basically league-average what the Sox thought they were getting when they traded for him? No. Of course not. But on a 100 loss team, 204.2 innings of such skill are pretty valuable. Yes, Shields led the AL in losses but he threw 16 more innings than anyone else on the team during a season in which his main goal could charitably be described as “please throw at least five innings a night”. And he did it!

I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Sox work out a deal with Shields to come back next season even after not picking up his option this winter. There are still innings needing to be eaten and he’s clearly comfortable with the role and the team. The initial trade was a failure, that can’t be denied. But barring some big moves this winter, next season won’t be about contention and the team could certainly do worse.

1. James Shields threw seven shutout innings on Wednesday night.  I’m not advocating for Cy Young votes or anything, but he’s sitting at a 4.29 ERA with a 4.27 DRA and 4.43 FIP to match while throwing the 6th most innings in the majors.  It would have been cool if he had managed this in 2016 instead, but I continue to be pleasantly surprised with how he has adjusted to his diminished arsenal, and these results are beyond what I would have predicted for 2018.

2. We’ve pointed out how thin the White Sox had become at outfielder, due to an unambitious Opening Day pool of talent to begin with, which was then severely eroded by injury.  Leury Garcia and Avisail Garcia returned from the disabled list at the same time and the boost to the lineup has been fairly clear.  Leury is hitting .471/.471/.529 in his return to Chicago, meaning his batting average is about 100 points higher than Trayce Thompson’s OPS. Avisail hasn’t walked yet in 2018, but he’s homered in back-to-back games while he tries to get back to 2017 form.  Either way, the offense has clearly benefited from turning 22% of the lineup into competent major league regulars again.

3. The bullpen continues to evolve from a weakness at the start of the season to a strength. Joakim Soria has held opponents to a .114/.262/.114 line in June and is now having as good of a season as he’s had despite his rocky start to the year.  Jace Fry continues to use his starting pitcher’s arsenal in a relief role to great effect.  Xavier Cedeno is doing his Jace Fry impression results-wise, having thrown 8.33 shut out innings since his call up from Charlotte while striking out more than a batter per inning using a crafty lefty arsenal.  These performances have helped the White Sox hold leads a lot better as they fight toward a .500 June, even in the absence of Nate Jones.

4. Eloy Jimenez hit his second home run in Charlotte on Wednesday, improving his line since promotion to .276/.344/.483.  Jimenez remaining in Charlotte after eight games is not an outrage the way, say, Vladimir Guerrero Junior hitting .800 or whatever for three months in Double-A was.  But he has shown no real signs of an adjustment period so to speak now that he’s facing the major league veterans in the International League as a 21-year-old, and there’s every reason to suspect he will start beating the door down to the majors in the coming weeks.

5. With Lucas Giolito turning in his most exciting start of the year over the weekend, looking like he had combined the improvements he made to his secondary pitches from last fall with the resurgent velocity he showed this spring, and Dylan Covey’s string of good starts, Carson Fulmer has been off the radar screen.  That’s just as well, as he continues to struggle at Triple-A. Despite a mediocre 4.46 ERA, Fulmer has walked 28 batters in 38.33 innings since his demotion.  Teams always burn through starters at a terrifying rate in this sport, but with the potential improvements from Covey and Giolito, Michael Kopech, Jordan Stephens, and now Spencer Adams catching him in Triple-A, I’m not sure how much longer you bother with Fulmer in the rotation.

Lead Photo Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Trade them if you can

Joakim Soria has been more or less exactly the pitcher he’s been throughout his career, which is to say he’s been very good. The 34-year-old’s strikeout rate is identical to what it was a year ago, and actually walking his fewest batters per nine since 2014. He’s also allowed just two home runs in his 28 innings of work. Soria has a $10 million team option for next season or a $1 million buyout, and given the seemingly never-ending bullpen help needed by contenders, one would expect the White Sox to fetch something for Soria’s services. Off the top of my head, you could see the Indians, Cubs, Angels, Phillies, Braves, and Cardinals among the teams that could use Soria. Given the fact that a better and younger reliever — Kelvin Herrera — fetched a trio of mid-level prospects, you’d have to imagine the White Sox would get something less than that in return. Still, Soria’s future is not in Chicago, so the best offer Hahn gets between now and July 31 should be fine.

Similarly to Soria, Luis Avilan is a veteran reliever who could add necessary bullpen depth to a contender down the stretch. Of course, Avilan is significantly less valuable given the fact that he’s .. well, not as good of a pitcher. As I mentioned, teams always seem to need bullpen help and they particularly always seem to be in the market for left-handed bullpen help. The White Sox got Casey Gillaspie for Dan Jennings a year ago. That’s nothing special, but if the White Sox get something similar in return for Avilan it wouldn’t be shocking.

Hector Santiago and Xavier Cedeno are two other veterans in the bullpen. I don’t know if we’re going to have another “Every Arm Must Go” bullpen sale again this year, but if there’s a deal to be had for either, I’d expect Hahn to take it. Nate Jones remains a viable option, too, but would need to prove he’s healthy within the next month before that can happen.

Maybe … probably … yes, do it

James Shields hasn’t been the outright albatross this year that he was the last two seasons, but he’s still a below-average starting pitcher, with peripherals that match up fairly well with his 4.59 ERA. Still, the fact that there’s any semblance of a market for the White Sox to trade him is something that would’ve been unheard of at the start of the season. But should they? Yes … probably. Re-litigating the White Sox disastrous acquisition of Shields is neither here nor there, but at this point there’s something to be said for what he’s provided the White Sox both in terms of his un-quantifiable veteran presence and his simple ability to eat innings. Yes, the White Sox have a lot of young pitchers both at the major league level or who will be here fairly soon, but even if you envision a second half rotation that includes Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Michael Kopech, and Dylan Covey (yes, really), and even if all of them are performing well, depth is still necessary. Even if it’s just a matter of limiting some of their innings down the stretch, Shields provides value.

All that said, you still trade him. Even if all of that is true, any kind of value you can extract out of Shields in terms of a lottery ticket prospect or something of that sort is probably worth cashing in on over 2-2 1/2 months of his veteran leadership and inning eating. Besides, as far as the latter is concerned you also have Santiago and Chris Volstad around.

YOU WILL PRY HIM FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS

The most obvious asset I’ve yet to mention, of course, is Jose Abreu, who despite a recent slump is still putting together his fifth consecutive stellar season and will undoubtedly be the only White Sox representative at the All-Star Game.

We’ve discussed both the quantifiable and un-quantifiable of Abreu’s presence on the White Sox. From his middle-of-the-order production to his mentorship to some of the young White Sox hitters, Abreu has meant and continues to mean a lot to the team. Yes, he’s 31 and unlikely to remain productive for too much longer, but whose to say he can’t for another 3-4 years? IF (it’s a big if) the White Sox window for contention truly begins opening in 2019, the odds of Abreu still being one of the premiere first basemen in the game remains strong. Ditto 2020. You can project all you want what the White Sox lineup is going to look like once their plethora of prospects start graduating, but there’s no reason Abreu can’t be part of it throughout whatever growing pains those players go through.

Sure, if Hahn were blown away by some impossible to refuse offer from, say, the Colorado Rockies, I would understand his inability to say no. But I think his value both to the present and future of the White Sox is high enough that unless something like that happens, it’s not something they should pursue.

Lead Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

1. On a team in contention for the number one overall pick, which has somehow also been ravaged by injuries, you’re going to have playing time for organizational soldiers.  Daniel Palka homered again, and continues his pleasantly strong 26-year-old rookie year.  He’s hitting .283/.315/.557, which is probably not sustainable unless he starts getting a little more selective, and his glove is an issue, but let’s not get overly cynical here.  The guy put in 2,500 minor league plate appearances and is getting a chance to finally earn some decent money and potentially earn future major league jobs as a bench piece as his power so far looks like it plays against major league pitching.

To a lesser degree, as he was just bounced back to the minors to activate Matt Davidson from the disabled list, the 28-year-old former prospect Matt Skole got his major league debut after 3,000 minor league plate appearances.  He only made it into four games, but he hit .273/.385/.545 and hit a home run in front of his parents.  His career was derailed by injury, but again, on a human level, this was a Good Thing.

2. Let’s keep rolling with these.  Alfredo Gonzalez, the fourth string catcher on the depth chart, got his first major league hit–driving in a run in the process–and was clearly extremely happy about it.  Kevan Smith is back off the disabled list so Gonzalez will bring his glove-only game back to Charlotte, but if you can’t enjoy moments like these I’m not sure what we’re doing.

3. James Shields turned in another quality start, going seven innings allowing three runs on three solo homers against a good Brewers lineup on Saturday.  He struck out six and walked one, so even though Tim Anderson bailed him out of a jam on a Ryan Braun line drive double play, the peripherals don’t necessarily reflect a mirage of an outing either.  Prior to the past few seasons where teams started getting odd about money and whether they are going for it or not, I’d say Shields is even pushing himself into the territory where you might be able to trade him, but it’s hard to imagine him bringing back anything more useful than his ability to protect the bullpen, turn in credible performances, and mentoring the younger players.

4. Dylan Covey has started four games and has an ERA of 2.82.  This goes with a FIP of 2.57 somehow.  Covey is unusual in a lot of ways.  He is not without pedigree, as he was the 14th overall pick in the 2013 draft.  The White Sox claimed him in the Rule V draft and actually successfully stashed him throughout 2017 as he got pummeled in the majors and got hurt a lot.  In hindsight, perhaps we were too hard on him for his ERA of almost 8.00 last year as he had pitched all of 30 innings above High-A in his pro career previously.

But 2018 has seen Covey throwing his sinker about two ticks harder than in the past, averaging 94.56 mph (!!) on the pitch.  He’s throwing it twice as often too, up to 66.40% of the time while having completely abandoned his four seam offering.  He’s still walking too many batters, but a power sinker can play up, particularly–as has been the case thus far–when you don’t allow many/any home runs.

I’m not saying Covey is the White Sox Rebuild version of Dallas Keuchel, but he’s still only 26 and he looks better to go with his better results.  If he can spam a 93-96 mph sinker and avoid injury this can work, and is probably what the White Sox hoped Carson Fulmer could do.  He got 13 swinging strikes on 97 pitches against the Brewers on Sunday throwing primarily a sinker! That ain’t nothing.  For all that we’ve written about Carlos Rodon or Michael Kopech coming to the rotation’s aid, Covey has to have won a rotation spot until proven otherwise, no?

5. The draft is tonight! The White Sox have the fourth overall pick, which is a pretty big deal and means it’s a chance to acquire a really good prospect.  I think it’s fair to say our prospect team is reticent about amateur coverage.  It requires basically a full time staff devoted to that purpose and BP’s focus is on pro prospects.  Based solely on general principles which should be followed–e.g. draft the best player available, bats are safer than arms, a guy who can mash but is non-traditional might be great value, etc.–I am personally hoping for Nick Madrigal, but he may not be available and he might also not be the best player available! Feel free to sound off in the comments with your own preference.  We’ll know this time tomorrow.

6. Bonus Thing: Carlos Rodon’s rehab start on Sunday went relatively smoothly.  He walked a few more batters than you’d like to see but made it through 5 innings on 92 pitches, meaning he’s roughly stretched out and should be ready to rejoin the major league rotation at some point this week.

Lead Image Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

1. James Shields again finished the seventh inning, allowing only two runs.  He has gone at least five innings every outing this season, barring an extra-inning relief appearance, and has now gone at least six innings six starts in a row, with quality starts in five of those.  While the year is still most assuredly 2018 and not 2011, his DRA on the year sits at 4.73, and his cFIP of 101 are the peripherals of a below average innings eater.  None of this removes the sting of Fernando Tatis Jr. starting to nuke Double-A as a teenager for San Diego.  And, there is still risk for regression here, as his 5.6 percent HR/FB rate and .254 BABIP are on the lucky side.  That said, Shields deserves credit for continuing to make adjustments as he ages into his late 30s and the White Sox desperately need his ability to soak up innings at a credible rate.

2. The White Sox’ outfield situation is dire.  Avisail Garcia was awful and then injured, and is not expected back until the end of June.  Nicky Delmonico’s power evaporated and he will be on the disabled list for 4-6 weeks with a broken hand.  Adam Engel is hitting .183/.262/.229 and opposing managers are intentionally walking batters ahead of him because they realize he can’t hit.  Trayce Thompson is hitting .117/.145/.300.  Tyler Saladino was traded to Milwaukee.  Daniel Palka is hitting perfectly well, for the moment, but putting him in the outfield is … well, extremely detrimental to your run prevention.  We’re at the point where Leury Garcia is hands down the best all-around outfielder on the active roster.

Worse, the alternatives in Charlotte are no better. Charlie Tilson is finally healthy, but he is hitting .237/.279/.288 in Triple-A.  Understandable, perhaps, given how long he’s been out with various lower body injuries, but he’s not in a position to be called up.  Ryan Cordell is hurt again.  Jacob May had his first season in Triple-A in 2016 and hit .266/.309/.352.  He’s hit worse there each year since.

Everyone knows this year is not about major league wins and losses, but at a certain point a sub-.500 OPS from multiple outfield spots just isn’t tenable and isn’t fair to the fans or the rest of the roster.  They’ve brought in Michael Saunders, who was once an underrated and solid player, but has since been destroyed by knee injuries and hit poorly in Triple-A last year.  Presumably Eloy Jimenez and Garcia are intended to be two thirds of the outfield at some point in 2018, but it’s unclear how long you’ll have to wait to get there.  The more advanced outfielders in Double-A like Jameson Fisher and Tito Polo have not hit well enough to merit promotions to Charlotte, let alone to the majors.

Short of a trade, though, I’m not sure what else can be done in the meantime if they genuinely believe Jimenez isn’t ready.  I suppose Seth Smith is still out there?  Perhaps with Jose Rondon looking competent you can see why Rick Renteria is musing on moving Yolmer Sanchez to the outfield as an empty .270 from Rondon would be a huge upgrade on one of these glaringly deficient lineup spots.

3. Unlike the outfield, however, the bullpen has somewhat gratifyingly progressed through the process of shuffling through internal options.  Bruce Rondon is so far putting his name forward as the latest “Don Cooper Reclamation Success Story.”  The erstwhile Tigers Closer of the Future boasts a 2.74 DRA over his first 16 innings on the South Side of Chicago.  A 27-year-old flame-throwing reliever rounding into form is quite common.  Who knows? Maybe Bruce Rondon will be one of those players the rebuild yields due to having innings available rather than a high draft pick or obtained via trade.

Another big boost to the ‘pen has arrived in the form of Jace Fry, who has now thrown 8 1/3 innings while only allowing two walks so far this year.  Fry only converted to relief last year, and he struggled mightily in his first look at the majors.  He’s actually throwing his fastball slower than he did last year, but he’s throwing his slider a lot more — up from 6.45 to 33.64 percent from 2017 to 2018.  So far it’s working really, really well.

4. After a slow start, Welington Castillo is slowly rounding into the normal, power-heavy but above average catcher hitting line one might have expected, as he’s up to .270/.314/.477.  This is unsurprising.  However, 2017 represented a quantum leap in terms of his catcher defense, going from near the bottom of the barrel to well above average.  So far in 2018, he’s reverted back to his poor results.  An area worth monitoring on his BP player card as the season progresses.

Meanwhile, Omar Narvaez has not managed to improve his framing numbers at all, and so far his on-base heavy offense profile has also collapsed as his average has slid well below the Mendoza Line.  Still, with these two and Kevan Smith stashed in Charlotte, there are much better teams with far worse catching situations.

5.  A quick note: as I was digging around in the minor league stat lines, I noticed Ti’Quan Forbes.  The White Sox acquired this 2014 second round pick from the Rangers in August 2017 for Miguel Gonzalez.  However, coming into this season, he had yet to slug above .350 or post an OBP above .315 in two full seasons above Rookie Ball, and so I wrote him off as organizational depth.  But, it’s worth pointing out his 2018 has been a huge step forward, as he’s hitting .276/.343/.402 in High-A Winston-Salem.  He’s walking more and has slashed his strikeouts approximately 10-12 points from his track record, and is down to 12.6 percent on the young season.

The road is very long, and he may turn back into a pumpkin at any time, but he does not turn 22 until August and for the first time he’s showing signs of real progress, and perhaps there’s a major leaguer in here somewhere after all.

Lead Image Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Be a hero. pic.twitter.com/9RBPO1XnwE

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) April 11, 2018

The home run and win will overshadow what was another sloppy and often times perplexing performance by the White Sox, which we’ll get to in detail below. But first, let’s check in on Davidson.

the last time anyone ever saw Tyler Saladino pic.twitter.com/LSBwiR5s3T

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) April 11, 2018

The White Sox DH/part-time corner infielder has been something of a source of fascination in this space for a while, which isn’t surprising given the 27-year-old’s former prospect pedigree, prodigious power, and general likability. Nick Schaefer wrote about his impressive start Tuesday, and in just two games since that piece was published he’s added another homer and, more impressively, three more walks. He now has nine walks in 44 plate appearances after just 19 walks in 443 plate appearances a year ago.

Nobody is going to confuse Davidson for Joey Votto anytime soon, but he’s among a handful of White Sox looking to prove he belongs on a major league roster, whether it’s in Chicago or elsewhere. Even a minor jump in OBP would make him immensely more valuable than the sub-replacement player we saw last year.

2. The White Sox went 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position in Wednesday’s win, and 3-for-35 during the three-game series. They’re 17-for-104 on the season, otherwise known as a .163 batting average.

If you’re a regular reader of Baseball Prospectus, you likely don’t need me to tell you that RISP numbers are mostly noise, as players can only do so much to control when they get a hit. The White Sox, despite their RISP struggles, are still a top five team offensively. While that’s unlikely to continue, so too is their struggles hitting with base runners. Expect stabilization in both regards before long.

3. Failure to hit with runners aboard is one thing, but failure to properly execute is another. Had Davidson not delivered in the bottom of the eighth, Wednesday’s game would have been remembered for an embarrassing sequence where Yoan Moncada pulled back a bunt attempt on a squeeze play, leaving Omar Narvaez hanging out to dry.

Rick Renteria confirmed after the game that the squeeze was, in fact on, and Moncada’s decision to pull back wasn’t the brightest idea, to say the least.

“We had a play on and he pulled back,” Renteria said. “He thought he didn’t see the runner coming from third so he pulled back. As everyone knows, everybody has an assignment and his is to complete that. If the runner from third isn’t doing what he’s supposed to we’ll take care of that later. He still has to do his job. He understands, he knew. I just wanted to make sure I was clear and that he understood the sign and he knew. I think it’s just more of experience, knowing that everybody has an assignment. You complete your assignment and we’ll take care of everybody else if they fail to do theirs.”

4. There isn’t much to say about the screw up other than that the White Sox and Moncada need to execute better, and one would hope that mental flubs of that sort will be less frequent when wins and losses start to matter more. Moncada himself has started to cause some consternation among folks concerned over his less-than-stellar start.

It’s true that Moncada hasn’t performed as many had hoped through 11 games. It’s also true that despite his prospect pedigree, he’s yet to prove himself at the major league level. A .200/.321/.333 line leaves a lot to be desired, as does a 39.6 percent strikeout rate.

Moncada has 304 career plate appearances at the major league level. There very well could come a time where his struggles will be concerning enough to start casting doubt on his future as an above-average regular. When that time will be — if it ever happens — I don’t yet know. I just know that time is not right now.

5. James Shields had one of the strangest starts in recent memory, which is saying a lot when you consider most of the 44 previous starts he’s made in a White Sox uniform.

The much-maligned veteran starter walked five in the first two innings but came out of them unscathed. He was aided in the second inning by an out on the bases courtesy of Mallex Smith, as well as an inexplicable sacrifice bunt decision made by Rays manager Kevin Cash. In the third inning, he started doing something he didn’t do much of in his first two starts — missing bats, and when all was said and done he went 6 1/3 innings, struck out six, and allowed just one earned run, lowering his ERA to a surprisingly respectable 4.15.

Shields is rough to watch even on his better days, but at the risk of diving too far into the cliche waters, the way he battles on a start-by-start basis, constantly making adjustments and trying new things in an attempt to find success, is damn respectable.

Lead Photo Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

As much as the White Sox promise to be more entertaining, these things are going to happen. As I wrote Thursday, the construction of this bullpen was both admirable and reasonable. For one, the White Sox jettisoned David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Anthony Swarzak, Dan Jennings, and maybe even a few I’m forgetting in a series of trades last summer. For two, given the current window of non-competitiveness, spending more than necessary for a more talented bullpen would be illogical.

What we’re left with is a mixed bag of sorts. Despite Thursday’s events, Jones and Soria represent the two best options, regardless of how they’re deployed. Beyond those two, there’s an assortment of veteran castoffs (Danny Farquhar, Hector Santiago, Luis Avilan), young, unproven talents (Aaron Bummer), and guys trying to prove they belong at the major league level (Greg Infante, Juan Minaya).

There’s enough talent throughout, particularly at the back end, for the White Sox to feign competence more often than not. But it’s not impenetrable, so things like Thursday are going to happen.

2. HAD the White Sox closed out Thursday’s win, the story would have been an impressive offensive performance by an assemblage of less-than-proven regulars. Yolmer Sanchez went 3-for-5 with a pair of triples, Matt Davidson had a rare two-hit performance where neither ball left the premises, and both he and Tim Anderson walked twice. Anderson stole his fourth base of the season, and the Garcias, Avisail and Leury had two hits each.

The weather outside was not ripe for run scoring, and after several dinger-fueled performances to open the season, the White Sox stringing together multiple hits was … different. The competition wasn’t exactly menacing — Jordan Zimmermann was hittable, to say the least. But the likes of Sanchez, Davidson, and Anderson hitting as they have in the season’s opening week is better than them not.

3. Speaking of Zimmermann, Thursday’s pitching matchup between him and James Shields was as unattractive as the weather unless you took a time machine back to 2013. Shields labored kinda sorta around the zone for most of the afternoon, surviving five innings with just three runs allowed. The last batter he faced doubled as the first strikeout he recorded this season, getting James McCann on a knuckle-curve in the dirt.

Every Shields start is going to be an adventure for as long as he sticks around in the rotation — there’s certainly no end coming soon — but for the second straight start he lasted juuuust long enough to give the White Sox a chance. An admirable trait, no doubt.

4. The White Sox offense, as I mentioned, looked good in Thursday’s loss, but that does not apply to Yoan Moncada, who finished 0-for-6 with four strikeouts. (Tigers pitching struck out 12, including an impressive six by Daniel Norris in 3 1/3 innings of relief).

There’s been some consternation about Moncada’s batting line, even just six games in, considering what it looked like in his debut last year. It’s difficult to worry, though, because it’s only been six games and because he continues to look good at the plate, despite the results. Maybe there will be a day down the road where Moncada’s performance will begin to bring pause that he’s not going to become the player the White Sox hope he can be. That day is not today.

5. Zimmermann-Shields is a pitching matchup for masochists, while Saturday’s Michael Fulmer-Lucas Giolito showdown is much more appetizing. The 25-year-old Fulmer has emerged as a reliable starter for the Tigers over the last two starts, and will undoubtedly find his name in trade rumors as the months go by the Detroit falls farther out of the race.

We know about Giolito, of course, but seeing how he bounces back from a subpar debut against the Royals will be worth watching.

Lead Photo Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

It doesn’t matter. We know in our well-conditioned brain that in a few weeks or a month, what happened Thursday isn’t going to be fresh in our memories, and there’s a good chance whatever the outcomes of those games are going to have very little bearing on how these teams and players are performing in Game 31 or 62 or 100. But we react to the good and the bad with a level of excitement that isn’t seen for most median regular season games, because it’s Opening Day. It’s exciting. After five months, baseball games matter again.

The White Sox 14-7 victory over the Royals didn’t follow any typical script. The White Sox hit six home runs — three by Matt Davidson, two by Tim Anderson, and one by Jose Abreu — in coming back from an early 4-0 deficit to wallop a division rival. All three of Davidson’s bombs registered at a higher mph than any one he hit last season, per Statcast, and he became the first player in the Statcast era to hit three home runs that all registered faster than 110 mph.

It was the kind of performance that’s easy to dream on. No, the White Sox are going to average 14 runs per game. They probably won’t set a major league record for home runs in a season. And I’m not holding my breath waiting for the next time James Shields goes through a stretch of retiring 16 of 18 batters without allowing a base hit in that span. But it’s the only game in which we have to judge, and for one game, the White Sox were both victorious and fun as hell.

2. Just as we overreact to the good, we overreact to the bad, and Shields getting tagged with four runs before recording an out zapped the Opening Day excitement almost immediately, as we were quickly hit with the harsh realization that, yes, baseball is back, but the struggles that have made Shields a shell of the pitcher he once was were still there.

Shields bounced back, as I mentioned, but he did not get out of the final five innings unscathed without a bit of luck. He generated just four swinging strikes all afternoon and zero strikeouts. In fact, White Sox pitching didn’t record its first strikeout until Luis Avilan got Jorge Soler swinging in the eighth inning. Still, after that first inning, the Royals didn’t generate much hard contact. They put seven balls in play with an exit velocity of 100 mph or more, according to Statcast, and five of those came during the first inning.

Shields is going to be walking a tight rope between competence and combustion all season long. Getting through 6 innings was a coup for the White Sox considering the first inning, but one would imagine the batted ball luck and run support won’t always be there.

3. The five combined homers by Davidson and Anderson were the obvious highlights in the 14-run explosion. Davidson’s power isn’t surprising, but a strong start to the season would be a boost for a player who is undoubtedly trying to prove he belongs on a major league roster. Davidson could hit 40 home runs this year, as Paul Konerko has said, but for someone who won’t provide much if any value defensively, the key for him will be evolving his skills beyond that prodigious power. We’re talking, after all, about a player who was a net negative across the board last season despite 26 home runs in 443 plate appearances.

Davidson had two plate appearances Thursday in which he didn’t leave the yard. In his first at-bat, he worked the count full (good) before swinging at two pitches that would’ve been ball four (bad), ultimately flying out to right field. In the other, he watched six straight pitches and drew a walk. Having at-bats like that, to go along with the power, will go a long way for a player whose 4.3 percent walk rate would’ve ranked in the bottom 10 in the league last season if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.

4. Speaking of walks, Anderson took one as well in one of his three plate appearances where he failed to dinger. Even more than Davidson, the base on balls is noteworthy for a player who walked just 2.1 percent of the time last season, dead last in the majors. Anderson didn’t draw his first walk last season until the ninth game of the season and drew just 13 total in 606 plate appearances.

Unlike Davidson, success for Anderson isn’t wholly dependent on the 24-year-old turning into a more patient hitter. His two homers Thursday were a good sign, as him living up to his power potential combined with his speed and hopefully improved defense at a key position (he was initially charged with an error on a tough play in the first inning but it was later turned to a hit) would make him a valuable player even if he always hovers near the bottom of the league in walk rate.

5. The White Sox drew seven walks Thursday, including two each from Nicky Delmonico and Adam Engel, the latter of whom added two hits on the day. Those two, along with Davidson and Yolmer Sanchez, are the White Sox biggest question marks from a positional standpoint this year, so a good start (I know, it’s one game) is good to see.

But in general, the White Sox taking walks is a welcome sight. They were 28th in walk rate a year ago, ranking slightly ahead of Detroit and Baltimore in that department. Danny Duffy and the Royals’ bevy of anonymous relievers isn’t exactly the stiffest competition, but the White Sox showing more patience as a whole — not just Davidson and Anderson — would be considered a big step forward for a team still ripe with developing young players.

Lead Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Starting rotation

Opening Day starters: James Shields, Miguel Gonzalez, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer

All-Star Break starters: James Shields, Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Hector Santiago

End-of-season starters: Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Michael Kopech, Alec Hansen

Optimistic take: Progress all around. Shields rounds back into acceptable form, providing mentor-ship to the young bloods and possibly managing to bring back a C+ prospect at the deadline. Gonzalez soaks up innings before being flipped for another toolsy young infielder. Giolito makes the “Gavin Floyd freed from the team he was disappointing” jump. Lopez shows he’s more than just a future bullpen ace. Rodon comes back healthy, throws 170 innings, and starts looking like the ace everyone dreamed he would be. Fulmer makes everyone forget his rough spring training and settles into a back of the rotation role.

Pessimistic take: Things fall apart. Shields leads the league in home runs allowed. Lopez averages four innings a start before being repackaged as a reliever. Giolito’s command abandons him and he’s sent back to Charlotte in May. Rodon’s injury issues continue, putting his future with the White Sox in doubt. Fulmer proves the skeptics right and accepts his new role as a seventh inning man. Hansen and Kopech get hurt.

Hot take(s): Alec Hansen has a better September than any of his fellow young hurlers and its not even close.

-Mark Primiano

Bullpen

Opening Day relievers:  Nate Jones, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, Danny Farquhar, Juan Minaya, Hector Santiago, Aaron Bummer, Gregory Infante

All-Star Break relievers: Nate Jones, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, Danny Farquhar, Juan Minaya, Thyago Vieira, Aaron Bummer, Gregory Infante

End-of-season relievers: Nate Jones, Juan Minaya, Thyago Vieira, Aaron Bummer, Jace Fry, Danny Farquhar, Zack Burdi, Gregory Infante*

*Not attempting to address the expanded roster flood of relievers as any of the Spring Training NRIs or midseason waiver claims could feature heavily.

Optimistic take: Like last year, the group is remarkably good for a rebuilding team.  Jones is 100 percent healthy and, as usual when he’s on the mound, shoves.  Newcomers Soria and Avilan perform to the better end of their track record and form a strong brace of setup men. Minaya continues to improve and Gregory Infante holds his startling gains from last year. Bummer starts to harness his high-octane velocity and is particularly tough on lefties.  Santiago serves admirably as a situational reliever, long man, and spot starter.

Also, like last year, the White Sox are able to trade most of the relievers they don’t plan on keeping for the future. They bundle Soria and Avilan to a playoff contender for surprisingly interesting prospects, a la the Sean Doolittle/Ryan Madson and Tommy Kahnle/David Robertson trades of last year. And, as surprising and Dan Jennings getting traded was last year, you never know if Infante or Farquhar might get you an offer you can’t refuse.  There’s a chance Jones gets traded, but with options through 2021 they don’t have decide right away.

This clears room for the next wave of prospects, as the hard throwing Vieira will get a chance to try to work on his command and offspeed offerings in Charlotte, Fry will continue adapting to relief, and Zack Burdi will return from Tommy John surgery to resume his path to a closer role.

Pessimistic take: Jones gets hurt again while Farquhar, Infante, and Santiago all revert to the waiver bait they were not so long ago.  When Vieira comes up to stop the bleeding he is Maikel Cleto 2.0 and it isn’t any fun. Soria and Avilan are only OK and nobody wants to trade for them, or at least, nothing worth anything, while the Dodgers turn Jake Peter into a good major leaguer.  Bummer, it turns out, was really rushed to the majors and needs to get sent back down, to the detriment of his confidence, and Burdi isn’t ready by the All-Star Break as expected.

Injuries to young pitchers is the worst thing that could happen — well, that and a whole lot of unwatchable baseball.

Hot take(s): Ryan Burr and/or Ian Hamilton eviscerate Double-A and Triple-A and are even pretty effective in a glimpse at the majors in August and September.  As a result, they start challenging for steady work in the 2019 bullpen, moving the competition window up even sooner.

—Nick Schaefer

Lead Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The news was nonetheless met with a certain amount of consternation as Shields’ continued presence on the roster and in the starting rotation has been a disaster for most of his two seasons with the teams, and it’s tough to forget that he was acquired for now-uber-prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. in the White Sox final ill-fated attempt to contend before transitioning to total rebuild.

But Shields matters to this White Sox team, just as he did last year. And it’s not just because of his mentorship to the team’s plethora of young pitchers, as has been discussed on a number of occasions, but he matters simply because, well, someone has to pitch.

If and when Rodon returns to full health, we’ll be nearing a point where the rotation will resemble something close to what the White Sox envision long-term. Undoubtedly, the team sees a contending team featuring the trio of him, Giolito, and Lopez down the road. But Rodon has never thrown more than 165 innings in a season and is coming back from injury, Giolito threw 174 innings last year between Triple-A and the majors, which was a new high for him as a professional, and Lopez got up to 168 2/3 innings between Charlotte and Chicago, also the highest of his career.

Even if everything breaks right, Rodon comes back healthy and effective, and Giolito and Lopez solidify themselves as major league starting pitchers, it would be unwise for the White Sox, barring some unexpected brush with contention, to overextend any of that trio. And even beyond those three, there’s very little in the form of major league-ready starting pitching in the system. That’s why pitchers like Shields and Miguel Gonzalez matter.

There’s a very realistic scenario where Shields is rendered pointless before 2018 ends. Maybe Rodon, Giolito, and Lopez excel. Maybe Michael Kopech is major league ready way sooner than expected. Maybe Carson Fulmer’s spring training struggles amount to nothing more than a minor road bump. Maybe Hector Santiago regains his form. And maybe Shields fails to get out of the third inning without giving up five home runs on a regular basis. All possible!

Pitchers are fickle. Young pitchers, particularly so. Shields, if you’ll allow me a bit of rare optimism regarding his 2018 prospects for a second, had stretches of competence last year. From Aug. 5 through the end of the season — 10 starts — he made it through at least five innings each time, at least six on seven occasions, and allowed three earned runs or fewer seven times as well.

Sans Rodon, the White Sox have six candidates for rotation spots, with Fulmer v. Santiago the only spot yet to be determined. Behind that group there’s a glut of question marks for who would warrant a start in the event of injury or ineffectiveness. Tyler Danish was taken off the 40-man roster during the offseason, Dylan Covey is there, of course, T.J. House is the only one of the NRI group who has started a game in the majors somewhat recently (2015), and then there’s organizational soldier and veteran Chris Volstad. (11 shutout innings this spring!) Maybe Jordan Stephens is worth a shot before long?

The options dwindle into uncertainty fairly quickly, not that you should expect otherwise from a rebuilding team. But depth will matter for this White Sox team that has a lot of young, mercurial starting pitchers. And that’s why Shields matters.

Lead Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports