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	<title>South Side &#187; Matt Davidson</title>
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		<title>White Sox Season in Review: Matt Davidson</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/10/09/white-sox-season-in-review-matt-davidson-2/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/10/09/white-sox-season-in-review-matt-davidson-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Oct 2018 09:35:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark Primiano]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Season in Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Davidson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=17044</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[2018 was pretty much set up to be a make or break season for Matt Davidson. The former Top 100 prospect return for Addison Reed was coming off a disappointing 2017 that managed to include 26 home runs with a .711 OPS and a K:BB ratio of 165:19. Not exactly what you want or need [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>2018 was pretty much set up to be a make or break season for Matt Davidson. The former Top 100 prospect return for Addison Reed was coming off a disappointing 2017 that managed to include 26 home runs with a .711 OPS and a K:BB ratio of 165:19. Not exactly what you want or need out of a bat first prospect whose long term defensive home at this point is DH that can spell your regular first baseman every so often. With the impending and inevitable flood of younger prospects coming down the pipe, Davidson had to show significant improvement to earn a spot on a suddenly crowded roster.</p>
<p>He hit the ground trotting, smacking three dingers against the Kansas City Royals on Opening Day. While he didn&#8217;t manage to hit a hat trick&#8217;s worth of home runs every game, he remained absolutely torrid throughout March and April, hitting nine homers to go with a .253/.375/.609 slash line and 15 walks to boot. He still struck out a lot (33 K in that same stretch), but when you&#8217;re only four walks shy of tying your career high before May rolls around, you&#8217;ll take the improvement.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the hot start was unsustainable and he only had one other month with an OPS over .750 (.751 in August). He started more games at DH (64) than at third and first combined (45 and 14 respectively) and for good reason. His range at either corner doesn&#8217;t seem to extend much further than his wingspan and he has all the grace of an under-oiled tin man when attempting to scoop up the ball. He also struck out just as many times this season as last (165).</p>
<p>But there were notable improvements. Yes, Davidson will always be a high-strikeout hitter. But his batting eye improved tremendously as he drew almost three times his previous career high in walks (52). That was good enough to goose his OBP up .059 points, shifting him firmly into the territory of average hitter instead of an all or nothing power bat without enough power to make that work.</p>
<p>And in the most interesting development of his year, Davidson made three appearances as a relief pitcher. In a year that featured more position players pitching than any sane person would believe, Rick Renteria called for Davidson during three separate blowouts. How did he do? 3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, and 2 K. Look at this curveball that sat Giancarlo Stanton down swinging.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.mlb.com/images/1/2/6/289205126/080618_davidson_ks_stanton.gif" alt="" width="512" height="288" /></p>
<p>Almost vintage Ben Sheets with that 1-7 drop!</p>
<p>The roster crunch might still catch up to Davidson this winter, especially as baseball seems to move ever farther into bigger and bigger pitching staffs at the expense of bench players. But even before his surprising and delightful development as the last man out of the bullpen, barring some major additions to the roster it&#8217;s hard to imagine not finding at least a spot on the bench for a guy capable of an .882 OPS against southpaws.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Glut of Corner Bats</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/24/davidsonpalkadelmonico/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/24/davidsonpalkadelmonico/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Sep 2018 15:11:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Schaefer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Avisail Garcia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Palka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Davidson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nicky Delmonico]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16666</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Regardless of how you come down on whether or not the White Sox should have called up Eloy Jimenez for September* coming into the year the next wave of outfielders was nowhere near the majors.  Jimenez had only a brief look at Double-A to end 2017. Luis Robert had yet to play stateside. Luis Alexander Basabe, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Regardless of how you come down on whether or not the White Sox should have called up Eloy Jimenez for September* coming into the year the next wave of outfielders was nowhere near the majors.  Jimenez had only a brief look at Double-A to end 2017. Luis Robert had yet to play stateside. Luis Alexander Basabe, Blake Rutherford, and Micker Adolfo had yet to demonstrate they&#8217;d mastered High-A on top of health problems for two of those three.  Given the high minors lacked impact outfield talent with proximity to the majors, it meant most of 2018 could be devoted to sorting through a number of fairly interesting corner bats to see if any could break out or establish themselves as pieces for the future.  Let&#8217;s take a look at what&#8217;s happened:</p>
<p>*<em>They absolutely should have</em>.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Matt Davidson</strong>: Working in Davidson&#8217;s favor, he has Top 100 Prospect pedigree, even if that is now several years in the rear view mirror, which jives with his pretty, powerful swing.  He also used 2018 to nearly triple his walk rate while shaving five points off his K%.  The result is a 110 OPS+ on the year to date, with an OBP up nearly 70 points (!!) from wildly below league average to slightly above.  The drawbacks here are a lack of athleticism and positional flexibility on the weak side of a platoon, as he can barely manage playing third base once a week and does not have the footspeed to cover for an outfield spot.  The hope is, given his improvement from 2017 to 2018, there&#8217;s more in there.  A Matt Davidson with this walk rate who hits .250-.260 instead of .220-.230 moves further from &#8220;decent bat for the position and bench contributor&#8221; to a solid regular.  The most intriguing X Factor here is the ability he has flashed as a pitcher in extremely limited samples.  Modern roster construction where teams carry 13 or 14 pitchers leaves almost no room on the bench for position players.  If Davidson can throw 10-20 innings a year, even in the lowest of leverage scenarios, it might separate him from his competition or allow the team to carry one less pitcher.  My gut says he sticks around for 2019, but we have not yet seen the acquisitions and departures of the winter.</li>
<li><strong>Daniel Palka</strong>:  Beloved by StatCast and certain enthusiastic portions of the fanbase, Palka&#8217;s power has always been loud and obvious.  For much of the year, however, it was the only thing he could do at a major league level.  Palka turns 27 in October and although the White Sox have given him run in the outfield, he&#8217;s arguably worse there than Davidson is at third.  To his credit, September has been his best month in terms of getting on base yet, as he has hit .246/.317/.667  (with eight more home runs, pushing him into the team lead with 27).  Palka is also left-handed, and one wishes teams would start contracting their bullpens to start platooning their opponents to death with bats like this on the bench.   Even so, like 2017 Davidson, it&#8217;s hard to carry a bat-only guy who can&#8217;t get his OBP above .300, as Palka sits at .289 on the year.  He has an option year left in 2019, so as long as there is 40-man space, they don&#8217;t have to make a final decision on him just yet.  Depending on who is healthy / here / gone next spring, I expect Palka to start the year in Charlotte or to fill in if someone is hurt in the hopes he makes a Davidsonian walk rate jump and becomes a more well-rounded weapon at the plate, because he is basically DH-only at this point.</li>
<li><strong>Nicky Delmonico</strong>:  Here&#8217;s where things get a little more grim.  Delmonico started the year with the inside track on the left field job after an excellent, albeit brief, audition in 2017.  However, the power he showed last year already looked like an outlier before it vanished this year in limited action bookending a huge chunk of the season lost to injury.  He&#8217;s 26 and has flashed major league production before, but there&#8217;s only so many of these guys you can keep around, and frankly, I&#8217;m not sure there&#8217;s enough power in here to carry the glove.  It doesn&#8217;t help that his signature strengths&#8211;zone control and contact&#8211;absolutely imploded, as his BB% dropped from 13.9 to 9.0 and his K% spiked from 18.7 to 25.2.  Like Palka, I anticipate the White Sox will exercise his option, but one has to imagine Palka has jumped over him in the organizational pecking order.</li>
<li><strong>Avisail Garcia</strong>:  Look, all I&#8217;m saying is he has 2,475 major league PAs and only 518 of them were good.  Those 518 came in 2017 and they were amazing, as he went to the All Star Game and nearly won a batting title.  My concern is how volatile the profile is, particularly taken in tandem with his truly impressive cascade of injuries.  And, when he&#8217;s going well, he&#8217;s shoring up his batting average and on-base skills with a remarkable number of infield hits.  The guy gets down the line really, really well for anyone, let alone someone his size&#8211;but he&#8217;s been managing a lot of lower body injuries this year, and one wonders if gains in eye and power will make up for the loss in speed as he ages further into his late 20s.  He&#8217;s under contract for one more year in 2019 and barring the signing of say, Bryce Harper, he&#8217;s almost certainly the starting right fielder next year.  I&#8217;m just so certain he winds up on the Cardinals and hits .300/.400/.500 for three years sooner rather than later.  Conversely, if the White Sox extend him, he will continue to randomly hit .350 for a couple months between long stretches of basically being a non-contributor.</li>
</ul>
<p>In sum, injuries and mixed performances have not shed as much clarity as you might like on this pecking order, although I would give Davidson and Palka decent odds of being deployed creatively as significant complementary contributors down the line if they continue to shore up their weaknesses.  As has been the case for most of his career, how the organization chooses to handle Avisail depends on his performance and their own willingness to keep betting on his underlying talent, which in turn, will have big consequences for the fate of the team as a whole.</p>
<p><em>Lead Image Credit:  Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>South Side 5: A Day Off</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/14/south-side-5-a-day-off/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/14/south-side-5-a-day-off/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2018 00:56:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Schaefer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jordan Stephens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Davidson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nicky Delmonico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoan Moncada]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13035</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It may have been a week since our last update, but again we have only one White Sox win to report.  It was a good win, with Lucas Giolito battling through supreme wildness to hold a potent Cubs lineup to three runs en route to a quality start. It still leaves the White Sox with [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It may have been a week since our last update, but again we have only one White Sox win to report.  It was a good win, with Lucas Giolito battling through supreme wildness to hold a potent Cubs lineup to three runs en route to a quality start. It still leaves the White Sox with the worst record in baseball, but it&#8217;s amazing how good each win feels anyway.</p>
<ol>
<li>Part of the odd tension of the 2018 season is despite the pitching staff’s massive struggles, there hasn’t been an obvious candidate to call up from Charlotte. Sure, Michael Kopech is a megaprospect, with all of the service time and fears of getting his development anything other than perfect which come with that status.  After him was a collection of veteran organizational depth and arms like Tyler Danish and Dylan Covey who aspire to fifth starter status.  However, the White Sox recently promoted Jordan Stephens from Double-A to Triple-A.  There was reason to believe Stephens could have started the year in Charlotte, as a college draftee who performed solidly over ~90 innings in Birmingham in 2017.  He’s already 25 and won’t be confused with the Kopechs of the world, but he’s much closer to a Prospect with a capital P who is now at the highest affiliate.</li>
<li>Yoan Moncada returns from his DL stint on Tuesday. Hopefully he can just pick up right where he left off when he tweaked his hamstring, as he was finally converting his excellent eye and power into results on the field.  Losing at the same clip as the ’03 Tigers is never going to be enjoyable, but at least with Moncada morphing into a superstar it’s more bearable if it does. It also makes victories a little bit more likely as well.</li>
<li>Matt Davidson’s renaissance continues apace, as he has now set a career high for walks in a season with 22, after only 141 PAs. Indeed, his K:BB is at 43:22 compared to his 2017 ratio of 165:19.  Accordingly he’s hitting a complete and excellent .261/.383/.591 on the year.  As I have pointed out, along with those smarter than I, the Astros championship goes far beyond “Tank for high draft picks à” Jose Altuve and Dallas Keuchel were already in Houston before the tank, but when they tore down it meant a lot more playing time, giving two relative non-prospects the run to become stars.  If Davidson can keep this up moving forward, it may be a lot more significant than, say, if Blake Rutherford develops.</li>
<li>Every time I voice doubt about Adam Engel’s hitting, it seems as though he goes 2-for-4. Then again, here I am looking at his stat sheet and he’s at .193/.265/.250 after another 100 PAs.  Unlike with Stephens and the imminent Kopech, the solution here is less clear short of simply giving the job to the superior Leury Garcia full time, unless and until Eloy Jimenez comes up.  Even then, it doesn’t create an elegant remedy for the hole in center field.  Instead, the rampaging Eloy puts pressure on…</li>
<li>…Nicky Delmonico. After a surprising breakout 2017, the 25-year-old outfielder is hitting .231/.339/.317.  His patience and contact skills are still apparent, but his power has absolutely vanished.  The weather’s been cold, it’s still not a lot of at bats to judge by, but there’s reason to believe the ball is less juiced than 2017.  What’s more, it’s worth remembering Delmonico has a career .432 slugging percentage in the minors.  Players get better, and this isn’t me giving up on him, but it’s fair to remember before last year, he didn’t have much game power, and it could be last year is the aberration not this one.</li>
</ol>
<p>The Rebuild is still on, despite lots of injuries pausing the progress of a variety of big names in the system — Alec Hansen, Luis Robert, Jake Burger, etc. — and it’s inching closer. Just…very slowly.</p>
<p><em>Lead Image Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>South Side Morning 5: A Fun Win</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/04/south-side-morning-5-a-fun-win/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/04/south-side-morning-5-a-fun-win/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 May 2018 06:59:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Side Morning 5]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Palka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Davidson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reynaldo Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trayce Thompson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Welington Castillo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12756</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wins and losses don’t mean much this year but trolling the Twins is always worthwhile — Nicky Beeps (@Nick_BPSS) May 4, 2018 1. We often get so caught up in who&#8217;s doing what and when and where in regards to the White Sox build toward contention that we don&#8217;t stop to appreciate a truly enjoyable game. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Wins and losses don’t mean much this year but trolling the Twins is always worthwhile</p>
<p>— Nicky Beeps (@Nick_BPSS) <a href="https://twitter.com/Nick_BPSS/status/992239900291469312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p>1. We often get so caught up in who&#8217;s doing what and when and where in regards to the White Sox build toward contention that we don&#8217;t stop to appreciate a truly enjoyable game. Thursday&#8217;s 6-5 win over the Twins to open a six-game home stand was far from perfect, but when it comes to the aesthetic pleasure of watching your team win a game against a division foe, it was among the most satisfying of the season thus far. (Yes, I know there&#8217;s only been nine to choose from).</p>
<p>Just how satisfying was it?</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Never change, <a href="https://twitter.com/CarlosSan29?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CarlosSan29</a>. <a href="https://t.co/LxUE0ypB87">pic.twitter.com/LxUE0ypB87</a></p>
<p>— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) <a href="https://twitter.com/whitesox/status/992260110683549698?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p>2. Trayce Thompson&#8217;s walk-off homer off Addison Reed capped a comeback from down 5-1 after just four innings. The offensive heroes were Thompson and Daniel Palka, the latter of whom the White Sox claimed off waivers over the offseason from Minnesota. Palka&#8217;s had an interesting start to his White Sox and major league career. The 26-year-old has been a free-swinger through his 24 plate appearances since replacing the disabled Avisail Garcia two weeks ago, showing he can do damage when he runs into a mistake. His solid if unspectacular track record in the minors shows enough promise, even if he&#8217;s older than most rookies, and the White Sox lack of ready-made outfielders in the minors until they decide Eloy Jimenez&#8217;s time has come means you can add him to the list of players looking to prove they&#8217;re of major league caliber going forward, whether it&#8217;s with the White Sox or not.</p>
<p>We know <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/20/tyler-saladino-sent-out-trayce-thompson-is-back/" target="_blank">Thompson&#8217;s story already</a>, but the walk-off shot came at a good time for a player who hasn&#8217;t exactly made the most of breath of fresh life his career was given when the White Sox re-acquired him a few weeks ago. The home run was his fifth hit since joining the White Sox, three of which have left the ballpark. Thompson, like Palka and a few others, is being given an opportunity that might not be afforded him on a team constructed a little differently, and with Nicky Delmonico&#8217;s slow start and Adam Engel&#8217;s offensive ineptitude, now is as good of a time as any for him to prove he belongs. Thursday&#8217;s home run was just a single shot at the most opportune of times, but it was a step in the right direction.</p>
<p>3. That the White Sox won despite their most consistent starting pitcher thus far having a rough night is a testament to both the offense, and <a href="https://theathletic.com/341779/2018/05/04/five-observations-trayce-thompsons-walk-off-redeems-difficult-night-for-reynaldo-lopez/?redirected=1" target="_blank">Reynaldo Lopez readily admitted</a> he didn&#8217;t have his best stuff on Thursday.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px"><em>“I think that today none of my pitches were working as they were supposed to work,” López said through team interpreter Billy Russo. “It was a constant battle for me. I have to battle, I have to grind through it and I’m finding ways to just get an out. It was with all my pitches. Today it wasn’t my best stuff and it was a battle.”</em></p>
<p>A day after Lucas Giolito flipped the script on his walk-heavy April with seven strikeouts, Lopez turned in his second consecutive start where he simply wasn&#8217;t missing bats. He induced just two swinging strikes in his 83 pitches and a fastball that has sat 95 for most of the season averaged just 93 mph on the day.</p>
<p>Lopez has been something of an early-season revelation considering the questions about his viability as a starter as well as the struggles of the staff as a whole. We&#8217;ll see yet whether Thursday&#8217;s struggles were a blip or part of a long-term concern.</p>
<p>4. Waiting for the inevitable tide to turn on Matt Davidson&#8217;s hot start doesn&#8217;t have quite the same feel as when he did the same (and it never came) with Avisail Garcia a year ago. Davidson&#8217;s prospect pedigree and lack of a long-term opportunity to date make it entirely possible the hitter he&#8217;s been for the first five weeks of the season is close to the new norm for him. No, he&#8217;s probably not going to OPS close to 1.000 long term, but he&#8217;s only three walks away from matching last year&#8217;s season-long total, and had another two-hit game Thursday including a double that drove home the tying run.</p>
<p>We&#8217;ve said it on a number of occasions, but while Davidson&#8217;s strikeout numbers are always going to be hefty, him bringing it down just a smidge (he&#8217;s at 30 percent on the season after 37.3 percent a year ago) while upping the walk rate (8.3 percent compared to 5.9) and remaining powerful (you really need to numbers on this one?) will make him a much more valuable player than we ever would&#8217;ve imagined even a few months ago.</p>
<p>5. Welington Castillo was a late scratch on Thursday with <a href="https://twitter.com/JRFegan/status/992245227736870913" target="_blank">what Rick Renteria said after the game</a> was because of a ball he took to the &#8220;personal region of the body&#8221; last week. Given that Castillo was disables twice a year ago <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-castillo-20170913-story.html" target="_blank">because of testicular injuries</a>, one obviously hopes bad luck hasn&#8217;t struck the White Sox catcher twice. While Castillo&#8217;s defense hasn&#8217;t graded out particularly well thus far this season (he&#8217;s second worst in the league, per FRAA), Omar Narvaez&#8217;s defense also leaves a lot to desire, as evidenced by the pair of passed balls that aided the Twins&#8217; first two runs of the game. Regardless, Castillo presents quite a bit more offensive upside than Narvaez, and while Kevan Smith is a capable injury fill-in if Castillo is forced to the disabled list, losing him for any amount of time would be a considerable blow.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>South Side Morning 5: (Mostly) Beating the Royals</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/30/south-side-morning-5-mostly-beating-the-royals/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/30/south-side-morning-5-mostly-beating-the-royals/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Apr 2018 05:37:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Side Morning 5]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carson Fulmer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Davidson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Anderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoan Moncada]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12638</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Five of the White Sox eight wins this season have come against the Royals at Kauffman Stadium, a fact that says more about their ineptitude against non-Royals teams than about the team&#8217;s performance as a whole. Still, even after dropping the last two of the weekend&#8217;s five-game series against the 7-20 Royals, a solid stretch [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Five of the White Sox eight wins this season have come against the Royals at Kauffman Stadium, a fact that says more about their ineptitude against non-Royals teams than about the team&#8217;s performance as a whole. Still, even after dropping the last two of the weekend&#8217;s five-game series against the 7-20 Royals, a solid stretch of play from most of the White Sox key pieces is a fine takeaway from an otherwise forgettable series between two of the American League&#8217;s worst teams.</p>
<p>1. Yoan Moncada went 8-for-23 with a homer over the weekend, and going back even further, has gotten at least one hit in eight of his last nine games, raising his OPS from .724 to .887 over that span.</p>
<p>One of the theories that had been held throughout his debut season and during his sluggish first few weeks of 2018 is that Moncada&#8217;s passivity at the plate could be a hinderance. He&#8217;s already established a keen eye, but the selectivity was such that he&#8217;d often find himself behind in the count waiting for that perfect pitch. As you might expect, the league as a whole generally performs well when swinging at the first pitch, and even better when ahead in the count. Through Saturday, Moncada is 8-for-11 when putting the ball in play on the first pitch, and 17-for-28 when he does so on the first pitch or second pitch. Of his eight hits against the Royals, five came in those situations.</p>
<p>The sample size here is obviously small, and again, the league as a whole performs at an above-average rate in any of those three situations, but selective aggression obviously works in his favor. There was never much of a worry about Moncada during his slow start, but the last week-plus has been a good showcase of what kind of hitter he is likely to become.</p>
<p>2. A White Sox rotation that was already being held together by scotch tape was in flux for most of the weekend with Miguel Gonzalez disabled and a doubleheader Saturday. Extra innings on Friday meant the White Sox would go into the latter three games of the series with one shaky member of the rotation and the equivalent of two bullpen games while they trudged on, lacking an off day since April 19.</p>
<p>Carson Fulmer helped alleviate those woes a bit in the first game Saturday, turning in his strongest outing of the season with six shutout innings. With two straight quality outings, he&#8217;s rebounded quite nicely from back-to-back starts where he failed to make it through two innings, and somehow finds himself with a more-respectable-than-expected 4.32 ERA. The advanced stats say Fulmer&#8217;s gotten by mostly on luck in the last two outings, as he&#8217;s induced just six swinging strikes in his last two outings, and his DRA is an ungodly 10.66. Still, he&#8217;s throwing strikes, inducing weak contact, and providing some aid for a beat-up pitching staff. Some progress is better than no progress.</p>
<p>3. Yes, it was five games against the Royals, but the pitching staff as a whole showed signs of progress over the weekend. Lucas Giolito still isn&#8217;t missing bats like he did in the spring, but he battled through 5 2/3 innings in Thursday&#8217;s win, allowing just two earned runs. His K/BB is still an abysmal 11/21, but he generated eight swinging strikes against a lineup that, despite its futility, still ranks best in the league in strikeout percentage. Baby steps.</p>
<p>Reynaldo Lopez gave up 10 hits and only struck out two in his 6 1/3 innings of work Friday, but more importantly walked zero and got 10 swinging strikes in his 94 pitches. White Sox pitching as a whole is striking out fewer batters per nine than every team in baseball save these Royals, and are conversely walking more batters per nine than every team except the Braves. Their K/BB over this five-game series was 29/17, which is still pretty bad but a step in the right direction. (And that includes Saturday&#8217;s Dylan Covey start that featured seven walks).</p>
<p>4. Tim Anderson is getting in the habit of ruffling feathers. After last year&#8217;s dust-up with Marcus Stroman and rubbing Justin Verlander the wrong way with a stolen base a few weeks ago, a perceived slight after a home run led to some exchanged words with Salvador Perez and a brief clearing of the benches in the second game of Saturday&#8217;s doubleheader.</p>
<p>At the risk of being perceived as biased (I am), the White Sox are on the right side of this one. <a href="https://theathletic.com/334563/2018/04/29/theyre-trying-to-take-the-fun-out-of-baseball-tim-anderson-vows-not-to-change-after-celebration-irks-royals/" target="_blank">Anderson himself put it about as perfectly as possible</a>.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px"><em>“They’re trying to take the fun out of baseball,” Anderson said. “This game is fun, and I went through too much last year to not have fun. I’m having fun this year. It’s exciting and I’m going to continue to be me. I’m playing this game and being me, and that’s fun.”</em></p>
<p>Anderson becoming the regular source of ire among White Sox opponents is an unexpected twist, considering his genuinely cheery attitude as well as his general anonymity as a yet-established player on an otherwise bad team. But Anderson is performing well right now — a .278/.327/.454 line with four home runs, eight stolen bases, and more than half of 2017&#8217;s walk total is a solid start — means we&#8217;ll hopefully see more of his expressing pleasure at playing baseball well going forward.</p>
<p>5. Oh yeah, Matt Davidson. After four more home runs at Kauffman Stadium, he&#8217;s up to nine and still slugging .619 a month into the season. And after drawing two more Sunday, he&#8217;s up to 15 walks on the season after 19 all of last season.</p>
<p>I still don&#8217;t know what Davidson is going to become as a player, but his pedigree and early-season success leaves room for hope of him becoming an above-average contributor going forward.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Peter G. Aiken/USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>South Side Morning 5: A win is a win is a win</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/12/south-side-morning-5-a-win-is-a-win-is-a-win/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Apr 2018 07:22:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Side Morning 5]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Shields]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Davidson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoan Moncada]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12148</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1. The White Sox snapped their five-game losing streak and salvaged a win to end an otherwise disastrous season-opening home stand thanks, almost entirely, to Matt Davidson. Be a hero. pic.twitter.com/9RBPO1XnwE — Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) April 11, 2018 The home run and win will overshadow what was another sloppy and often times perplexing performance [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. The White Sox snapped their five-game losing streak and salvaged a win to end an otherwise disastrous season-opening home stand thanks, almost entirely, to Matt Davidson.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="es">Be a hero. <a href="https://t.co/9RBPO1XnwE">pic.twitter.com/9RBPO1XnwE</a></p>
<p>— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) <a href="https://twitter.com/whitesox/status/984182836482789378?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 11, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p>The home run and win will overshadow what was another sloppy and often times perplexing performance by the White Sox, which we&#8217;ll get to in detail below. But first, let&#8217;s check in on Davidson.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">the last time anyone ever saw Tyler Saladino <a href="https://t.co/LSBwiR5s3T">pic.twitter.com/LSBwiR5s3T</a></p>
<p>— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) <a href="https://twitter.com/based_ball/status/984178270932418560?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 11, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p>The White Sox DH/part-time corner infielder has been something of a source of fascination in this space for a while, which isn&#8217;t surprising given the 27-year-old&#8217;s former prospect pedigree, prodigious power, and general likability. Nick Schaefer <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/10/matt-davidsons-hot-start/" target="_blank">wrote about his impressive start Tuesday</a>, and in just two games since that piece was published he&#8217;s added another homer and, more impressively, three more walks. He now has nine walks in 44 plate appearances after just 19 walks in 443 plate appearances a year ago.</p>
<p>Nobody is going to confuse Davidson for Joey Votto anytime soon, but he&#8217;s among a handful of White Sox looking to prove he belongs on a major league roster, whether it&#8217;s in Chicago or elsewhere. Even a minor jump in OBP would make him immensely more valuable than the sub-replacement player we saw last year.</p>
<p>2. The White Sox went 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position in Wednesday&#8217;s win, and 3-for-35 during the three-game series. They&#8217;re 17-for-104 on the season, otherwise known as a .163 batting average.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re a regular reader of Baseball Prospectus, you likely don&#8217;t need me to tell you that RISP numbers are mostly noise, as players can only do so much to control <em>when </em>they get a hit. The White Sox, despite their RISP struggles, are still a top five team offensively. While that&#8217;s unlikely to continue, so too is their struggles hitting with base runners. Expect stabilization in both regards before long.</p>
<p>3. Failure to hit with runners aboard is one thing, but failure to properly execute is another. Had Davidson not delivered in the bottom of the eighth, Wednesday&#8217;s game would have been remembered for an embarrassing sequence where Yoan Moncada pulled back a bunt attempt on a squeeze play, leaving Omar Narvaez hanging out to dry.</p>
<p>Rick Renteria <a href="https://theathletic.com/310231/2018/04/11/by-the-numbers-matt-davidsons-big-blast-pushes-asides-frustrations-of-an-ugly-home-stand/" target="_blank">confirmed after the game that the squeeze was, in fact on</a>, and Moncada&#8217;s decision to pull back wasn&#8217;t the brightest idea, to say the least.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px"><em>“We had a play on and he pulled back,” Renteria said. “He thought he didn&#8217;t see the runner coming from third so he pulled back. As everyone knows, everybody has an assignment and his is to complete that. If the runner from third isn&#8217;t doing what he&#8217;s supposed to we&#8217;ll take care of that later. He still has to do his job. He understands, he knew. I just wanted to make sure I was clear and that he understood the sign and he knew. I think it&#8217;s just more of experience, knowing that everybody has an assignment. You complete your assignment and we&#8217;ll take care of everybody else if they fail to do theirs.”</em></p>
<p>4. There isn&#8217;t much to say about the screw up other than that the White Sox and Moncada need to execute better, and one would hope that mental flubs of that sort will be less frequent when wins and losses start to matter more. Moncada himself has started to cause some consternation among folks concerned over his less-than-stellar start.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s true that Moncada hasn&#8217;t performed as many had hoped through 11 games. It&#8217;s also true that despite his prospect pedigree, he&#8217;s yet to prove himself at the major league level. A .200/.321/.333 line leaves a lot to be desired, as does a 39.6 percent strikeout rate.</p>
<p>Moncada has 304 career plate appearances at the major league level. There very well could come a time where his struggles will be concerning enough to start casting doubt on his future as an above-average regular. When that time will be — if it ever happens — I don&#8217;t yet know. I just know that time is not right now.</p>
<p>5. James Shields had one of the strangest starts in recent memory, which is saying a lot when you consider most of the 44 previous starts he&#8217;s made in a White Sox uniform.</p>
<p>The much-maligned veteran starter walked five in the first two innings but came out of them unscathed. He was aided in the second inning by an out on the bases courtesy of Mallex Smith, as well as an inexplicable sacrifice bunt decision made by Rays manager Kevin Cash. In the third inning, he started doing something he didn&#8217;t do much of in his first two starts — missing bats, and when all was said and done he went 6 1/3 innings, struck out six, and allowed just one earned run, lowering his ERA to a surprisingly respectable 4.15.</p>
<p>Shields is rough to watch even on his better days, but at the risk of diving too far into the cliche waters, the way he battles on a start-by-start basis, constantly making adjustments and trying new things in an attempt to find success, is damn respectable.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Does Matt Davidson&#8217;s promising start mean anything?</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/10/matt-davidsons-hot-start/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/10/matt-davidsons-hot-start/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Apr 2018 16:25:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Schaefer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Handsome adjustments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Davidson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12091</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Think back, if you can, to Opening Day, when Matt Davidson hit three home runs and set off all of the Statcast Twitter accounts because of just how hard he hit them. Understandably, though, one game isn&#8217;t enough to revise your opinion on someone. Mallex Smith had four hits on Monday and this article is [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Think back, if you can, to Opening Day, when <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/60958/matt-davidson" target="_blank">Matt Davidson</a> hit three home runs and set off all of the Statcast Twitter accounts because of just how hard he hit them. Understandably, though, one game isn&#8217;t enough to revise your opinion on someone. <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/70851/mallex-smith" target="_blank">Mallex Smith</a> had four hits on Monday and this article is not going to crown him the next Rod Carew either. After all, Davidson started last year <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/19/qa-with-matt-davidson/">on a tear</a> as well, only to have his extreme lack of zone control and some minor injuries grind him down to a .220 average and .260 on-base percentage by season&#8217;s end. Surely, the safest thing to assume at this point is he will wind up looking like the major league production we&#8217;ve seen to date.</p>
<p>Regardless of what you think his ultimate career will look like, however, Davidson has a few things working in his favor. First, his power is legitimately insane, with a .232 ISO in his first full season last year in tandem with the visual evidence. He only had 91 hits last year and 26 of them were home runs. Second, although it shrinks further and further into the rear view mirror, Davidson had legitimate prospect shine, making multiple appearances on all three major public Top 100 prospect lists, including our own. Davidson still has the pretty, compact swing which helped explain why evaluators thought he&#8217;d hit in the majors. And he has certainly persevered through unexpected and protracted struggles in Triple-A as well as a season-ending injury in his White Sox debut in 2016. Subjectively, and you can look at the linked Q&amp;A above, Davidson presents as thoughtful and hardworking, which also seems like a plus.</p>
<p>That said, plenty of lovely, hardworking, highly regarded prospects have busted anywhere from softly to spectacularly, and no matter how polite to me he was in an interview he still has to face major league pitching. He doesn&#8217;t have speed on his side, nor can his glove carry anything other than a bat whose contributions are unambiguous. And, for emphasis: he posted a 37.2 K rate against a 4.3 BB rate in 2017.</p>
<p>But, more than the massive home runs to start 2018, the plate discipline has thus far been palpably and considerably better. He has shaved 5.8 points off his K rate to a High But Not Ridiculously League Leading 31.4 and spiked his walk rate all the way up to 17.1 percent. These results are consistent with the visual evidence, as he has taken close pitches and worked 0-2 counts into walks, as well as his approach. He&#8217;s swinging at fewer pitches overall, at 36.2 percent rather than the 48.4 percent of last year, most of which comes from chasing outside of the zone less. In 2017, Davidson would swing at 33.4 percent of pitches out of the strike zone, and he has cut that to 19.6 percent this year.</p>
<p>We&#8217;ll see how and if pitchers adjust and how Davidson adjusts back, but I feel confident saying chasing fewer pitches out of the zone can help reduce strikeouts and increase walks. Davidson is currently at .250/.400/.714. The slugging is going to come down, and I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s suddenly a right-handed Anthony Rizzo either, but if any of these gains are real, given his power, Davidson could very well hit something like .250/.330/.500. That won&#8217;t win MVP awards, but it is certainly a helpful major leaguer, even in the era of nine-man bullpens.</p>
<p>A few good games against the Royals and Tigers does not a new level of performance make. But there have been a lot of post-hype prospects figuring things out in their late 20s lately, and Davidson joining their ranks and becoming a solid corner bat would hardly be shocking at this point.</p>
<p><em>Photo credit: Dan Hamilton- USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>South Side Morning 5: Tigers Sweep? I&#8217;m Not Mad, You&#8217;re Mad</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/09/south-side-morning-5-tigers-sweep-im-not-mad-youre-mad/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Apr 2018 10:11:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Schaefer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Side Morning 5]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lucas Giolito]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Davidson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reynaldo Lopez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tigers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[White Sox]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12032</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Friday was frustrating, but as Collin wrote, good stuff happened and veteran relievers blowing a game is not cause for panic or canceling the rebuild.  I have not revised my opinion of Nate Jones or Joakim Soria as a result.  In a rebuilding season, losing three games against the Tigers shouldn’t matter in and of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Friday was frustrating, but <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/06/south-side-morning-5-these-things-are-bound-to-happen/">as Collin wrote</a>, good stuff happened and veteran relievers blowing a game is not cause for panic or canceling the rebuild.  I have not revised my opinion of <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/56519/nate-jones">Nate Jones</a> or <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/46711/joakim-soria">Joakim Soria</a> as a result.  In a rebuilding season, losing three games against the Tigers shouldn’t matter in and of itself either.  I tell myself that, and sometimes it is even persuasive.</p>
<p>1. One of the cool things about following baseball is there is always more to learn. For example, I bet you thought loading the bases increased your chances of scoring runs. The theory has a compelling, albeit facile, logic to it.  But that’s why you read Baseball Prospectus — you think on a deeper level.  The White Sox had some contrarian wisdom, loading the bases in the first on Sunday and the bottom of the second on Saturday with one out and none out respectively and not scoring at all.  It was cool and great.</p>
<p>2. <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/101728/reynaldo-lopez">Reynaldo Lopez</a> took the hard luck 1-0 loss Sunday, although it indicts Pitcher Wins &amp; Losses more than it says anything about his efforts. The term “effectively wild” is a cliché, but Lopez held the Tigers to one unearned run on the day, striking out five and only allowing two hits.  The five walks were a bit unsightly, but Lopez is missing bats so far in 2018, which is much more consistent with his repertoire and speaks to what he can accomplish if his secondaries are working.</p>
<p>3. For his second start of the year, <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/100261/lucas-giolito">Lucas Giolito</a> did not have his best command, struggling to locate his fastball, and allowing 5 runs over 5.2 IP. Maybe Giolito has trouble getting loose in cold weather or maybe these are just two random bad starts.  Regardless, it has certainly thrown cold water on the popular Spring Training narrative Giolito had figured everything out.  The silver lining is how he has managed to muddle through reasonably deep into games when he clearly wasn&#8217;t at his best, but I&#8217;m sure he&#8217;d prefer to show his best instead.</p>
<p>4. <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/60317/juan-minaya">Juan Minaya</a> had a really rough weekend, walking all four of the batters he faced on Saturday and then being optioned to Charlotte the next day. The corresponding move represented the White Sox’ biggest moral victory of the weekend, as they took deployed former Detroit prospect <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/60936/bruce-rondon">Bruce Rondon</a>, who pulled the reverse Minaya and struck out all four Tigers’ he faced.  Rondon throws hard. Maybe he’ll be the next Cooper reclamation project to troll the league.</p>
<p>5. The White Sox offense fell flat on against <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/70445/michael-fulmer">Michael Fulmer</a> — a good pitcher — and <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/59639/mike-fiers">Mike Fiers</a>, who is not as good as Fulmer, but they still sit No. 1 in the majors in OPS as a team. Even after two bad games, <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/59016/avisail-garcia">Avisail Garcia</a> is still hitting .343, and <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/60958/matt-davidson">Matt Davidson</a> drew a walk in each of them, including after an 0-2 count.  For reference, he walked 19 times in all of 2017.  Davidson is always going to strike out a lot, but the walks and power method is a tried and true one.  He already has the latter, so the former would be a very welcome addition, and it is a trend worth monitoring.</p>
<p><em>Lead Image Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>South Side Morning 5: These Things Are Bound To Happen</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/06/south-side-morning-5-these-things-are-bound-to-happen/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Apr 2018 07:39:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Side Morning 5]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Shields]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joakim Soria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Davidson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nate Jones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Anderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yolmer Sanchez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11959</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1. Opening Day in Chicago seemed hunky dory when the White Sox turned a 7-3 lead over to the expectantly reliable duo of Nate Jones and Joakim Soria. Then some time passed, too many Tigers crossed home plate, and next thing you knew the White Sox were 9-7 losers in 10 innings. As much as [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1. Opening Day in Chicago seemed hunky dory when the White Sox turned a 7-3 lead over to the expectantly reliable duo of Nate Jones and Joakim Soria. Then some time passed, too many Tigers crossed home plate, and next thing you knew the White Sox were 9-7 losers in 10 innings.</p>
<p>As much as the White Sox promise to be more entertaining, these things are going to happen. As I wrote Thursday, the construction of this bullpen was both admirable and reasonable. For one, the White Sox jettisoned David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Anthony Swarzak, Dan Jennings, and maybe even a few I&#8217;m forgetting in a series of trades last summer. For two, given the current window of non-competitiveness, spending more than necessary for a more talented bullpen would be illogical.</p>
<p>What we&#8217;re left with is a mixed bag of sorts. Despite Thursday&#8217;s events, Jones and Soria represent the two best options, regardless of how they&#8217;re deployed. Beyond those two, there&#8217;s an assortment of veteran castoffs (Danny Farquhar, Hector Santiago, Luis Avilan), young, unproven talents (Aaron Bummer), and guys trying to prove they belong at the major league level (Greg Infante, Juan Minaya).</p>
<p>There&#8217;s enough talent throughout, particularly at the back end, for the White Sox to feign competence more often than not. But it&#8217;s not impenetrable, so things like Thursday are going to happen.</p>
<p>2. HAD the White Sox closed out Thursday&#8217;s win, the story would have been an impressive offensive performance by an assemblage of less-than-proven regulars. Yolmer Sanchez went 3-for-5 with a pair of triples, Matt Davidson had a rare two-hit performance where neither ball left the premises, and both he and Tim Anderson walked twice. Anderson stole his fourth base of the season, and the Garcias, Avisail and Leury had two hits each.</p>
<p>The weather outside was not ripe for run scoring, and after several dinger-fueled performances to open the season, the White Sox stringing together multiple hits was &#8230; different. The competition wasn&#8217;t exactly menacing — Jordan Zimmermann was hittable, to say the least. But the likes of Sanchez, Davidson, and Anderson hitting as they have in the season&#8217;s opening week is better than them not.</p>
<p>3. Speaking of Zimmermann, Thursday&#8217;s pitching matchup between him and James Shields was as unattractive as the weather unless you took a time machine back to 2013. Shields labored kinda sorta around the zone for most of the afternoon, surviving five innings with just three runs allowed. The last batter he faced doubled as the first strikeout he recorded this season, getting James McCann on a knuckle-curve in the dirt.</p>
<p>Every Shields start is going to be an adventure for as long as he sticks around in the rotation — there&#8217;s certainly no end coming soon — but for the second straight start he lasted <em>juuuust</em> long enough to give the White Sox a chance. An admirable trait, no doubt.</p>
<p>4. The White Sox offense, as I mentioned, looked good in Thursday&#8217;s loss, but that does not apply to Yoan Moncada, who finished 0-for-6 with four strikeouts. (Tigers pitching struck out 12, including an impressive six by Daniel Norris in 3 1/3 innings of relief).</p>
<p>There&#8217;s been some consternation about Moncada&#8217;s batting line, even just six games in, considering what it looked like in his debut last year. It&#8217;s difficult to worry, though, because it&#8217;s only been six games and because he continues to look good at the plate, despite the results. Maybe there will be a day down the road where Moncada&#8217;s performance will begin to bring pause that he&#8217;s not going to become the player the White Sox hope he can be. That day is not today.</p>
<p>5. Zimmermann-Shields is a pitching matchup for masochists, while Saturday&#8217;s Michael Fulmer-Lucas Giolito showdown is much more appetizing. The 25-year-old Fulmer has emerged as a reliable starter for the Tigers over the last two starts, and will undoubtedly find his name in trade rumors as the months go by the Detroit falls farther out of the race.</p>
<p>We know about Giolito, of course, but seeing how he bounces back from a subpar debut against the Royals will be worth watching.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>South Side Morning 5: A normal baseball game where nothing weird happened</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/05/south-side-morning-5-a-normal-baseball-game-where-nothing-weird-happened/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/05/south-side-morning-5-a-normal-baseball-game-where-nothing-weird-happened/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Apr 2018 07:43:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Side Morning 5]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Bummer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carson Fulmer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joakim Soria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Abreu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Davidson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nate Jones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Welington Castillo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11930</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wednesday&#8217;s 4-3 victory over the Blue Jays will be remembered — if it&#8217;s remembered for anything — for the unusual play in the top of the 5th inning that will ultimately go down as nothing more than an RBI single by Yoan Moncada. But five impressive innings from Carson Fulmer, two more home runs, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wednesday&#8217;s 4-3 victory over the Blue Jays will be remembered — if it&#8217;s remembered for anything — for <a href="https://www.mlb.com/gameday/white-sox-vs-blue-jays/2018/04/04/529485#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=529485" target="_blank">the unusual play in the top of the 5th inning</a> that will ultimately go down as nothing more than an RBI single by Yoan Moncada. But five impressive innings from Carson Fulmer, two more home runs, and four scoreless innings from the bullpen made for a solid ending to a mostly successful season-opening road trip.</p>
<p>1. Fulmer was about as effective as hoped following a precarious spring. He sat 94 with his fastball and consistently threw both his changeup and cutter for strikes. The cutter, in particular, was working from the start. In the first inning, he struck out Justin Smoak on three pitches following his only walk of the game, and ended a first-and-third threat by <a href="https://www.mlb.com/gameday/white-sox-vs-blue-jays/2018/04/04/529485#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=529485" target="_blank">getting Randall Grichuk chasing on a 2-2 cutter</a>.</p>
<p>In all, he threw 48 of his 73 pitches for strikes, including 12 of 14 changeups and 14 of 16 cutters. Nine of <em>those </em>26 strikes were of the swinging variety, according to Brooks Baseball, and three of his five strikeouts came swinging.</p>
<p>There was a reason Fulmer only threw 73 pitches, of course, as Rick Renteria had a quick hook following back-to-back hits — a Josh Donaldson single and Smoak double — to lead off the sixth. But, in general, the start was exactly what we saw out of Fulmer at the end of last season, only against real professional hitters instead of the Quad-A rosters of teams 30 games below .500. The stuff has always been there for Fulmer, but his ability to maintain his mechanics and consistently throw strikes both with his fastball and secondary stuff are going to dictate whether or not he&#8217;s a starter long-term. It&#8217;s one start, but so far, so good.</p>
<p>2. After the Opening Day dinger-fest, I wrote that the <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/30/south-side-morning-5-opening-day-dingers/" target="_blank">White Sox probably aren&#8217;t going to lead the majors in home runs</a>. Well &#8230; five games in, the White Sox lead the majors with 14 home runs, including Wednesday&#8217;s solo shots by Matt Davidson and Jose Abreu, the latter of which proved to be the game winner.</p>
<p>Of course, the aforementioned statement is still true, but there&#8217;s no denying the White Sox have been more powerful than one could possible imagine thus far. And it&#8217;s not just that the balls are leaving the yard, it&#8217;s <em>how </em>they&#8217;re leaving. Avisail Garcia&#8217;s 481-foot homer Tuesday was the longest by a White Sox hitter in the Statcast era. Yolmer Sanchez — YOLMER SANCHEZ — hit one 442 feet!</p>
<p>Abreu&#8217;s power is never going to be a surprise, and when Davidson makes contact and it <em>doesn&#8217;t </em>leave the yard, that&#8217;s surprising, but even in the current run-scoring environment, the White Sox weren&#8217;t particularly dinger-heavy a year ago. The likes of Anderson, Sanchez, and Welington Castillo getting into the act is a welcome sight, for however long it continues.</p>
<p>3. The White Sox bullpen got beat around in Tuesday&#8217;s 14-5 loss, but bounced back for four scoreless innings in Wednesday&#8217;s win. Sure, Aaron Bummer allowed two inherited runners charged to Fulmer to score, but after he got two outs, the game ended with 3 1/3 hitless frames by Danny Farquhar, Nate Jones, and Joakim Soria.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a lot of volatility in the White Sox bullpen. Bummer and Greg Infante are erratic, and the likes of Farquhar, Soria, and Luis Avilan .. well, there&#8217;s a reason the veteran arms were available for very little. Still, after last year&#8217;s reliever clearing sale, the fact that the White Sox have any semblance of competence in the middle innings without breaking the bank is pretty impressive.</p>
<p>A team, whether it&#8217;s rebuilding or not, could do a lot worse than the Jones-Soria duo in the eighth and ninth innings, and while it&#8217;s yet to be determined how the rest will shake out, there&#8217;s a lot of upside in the eclectic mix of veterans and guys trying to prove themselves as major league relievers.</p>
<p>4. Oh yeah, back to <a href="https://www.mlb.com/gameday/white-sox-vs-blue-jays/2018/04/04/529485#game_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=529485" target="_blank">the play</a>. While it was refreshing to see replay work in what appeared to be correct fashion, and it obviously played out in the White Sox factor, the overturn also overshadowed what was a horrendous play on the basepaths by Castillo. With the bases loaded and one out, the leaping, falling-to-the-ground, initially-called-a catch by Curtis Granderson somehow didn&#8217;t turn into a run at first as Castillo didn&#8217;t tag up and attempt to score.</p>
<p>It was what amounted to a brain fart that didn&#8217;t have an affect on the game&#8217;s outcome, but baserunning woes have plagued the White Sox for some time now. Last year, they made 58 outs on the basepaths (doesn&#8217;t include pickoffs or caught stealing), which, while not among the worst in the league, was still worse than league average. This year that number is already at four through five games, and doesn&#8217;t include blips like Castillo&#8217;s.</p>
<p>The flip side of this, of course, is that aggressiveness can beget more runs if executed wisely. Last year, the White Sox were almost exactly average according to BP&#8217;s baserunning runs stat, ranking 14th in baseball at -0.1. Stats this year are, of course, far from stabilizing, but it&#8217;s maybe worth noting that they&#8217;ve taken the extra base on a league-high 67 percent of opportunities through this minuscule sample size after ranking slightly below average in the category a year ago.</p>
<p>There are a lot of noise in these stats, so take them with a grain of salt, but seeing how the White Sox balance aggressiveness with smart baserunning will be something worth watching throughout the season.</p>
<p>5. The White Sox home opener is today, weather pending, with James Shields making his second start of the season against Detroit and Jordan Zimmermann. There will be festivities — including A.J. Pierzynski throwing out the ceremonial first pitch — weather pending.</p>
<p>The Tigers have looked as bad as every expected them to be through five games, going 1-4 against the Pirates and Royals. The White Sox get to play them 19 times this season, so if they have any interest in staying competitive later into the season than anticipated, beating up on this team would be a good way to do so.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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