Things started to fall apart, however, when he entered the heart of the Royals lineup for the second time. With a no-hitter still intact in the fourth inning, Lopez hung a curveball that Mike Moustakas crushed to right-center field. Things started to fall apart after that as he allowed two straight hits with still just one out. He came back and got two straight outs to escape, but it was the beginning of a tumultuous final three innings of work for the young righty.

When Moustakas strode to the plate again in the sixth, the result was the same as in the fourth. This time, it was a changeup from Lopez left up in the zone taken over the left-center wall. He didn’t have a single strikeout after the third inning. He survived on outs in the air, giving up just those two runs on the long ball. In his six innings of work, he had just one ground ball out. The final line showed that it was a successful debut with Lopez going six innings, allowing four hits, two runs, and three walks while striking out six.

•••

Reynaldo was sitting in the upper 90s during the first three innings of work; surely adrenaline had something to do with him pumping gas to begin his White Sox debut. When he got into trouble in the later innings of his start, the fastball was sitting closer to 95 mph. The extra couple ticks, along with nasty secondary pitches in the first three innings is what allowed him to miss bats with such authority. He had six strikeouts in the first three innings of work and looked extremely impressive despite his pitch count quickly building up.

The stuff simply dropped off for Lopez as he got into the fourth and beyond. His fastball was a couple ticks lower, and there was noticeably less bite to his curveball. The changeup was left up in the zone far too often, and major league hitters naturally pounced on such opportunities. Even with his stuff dropping off, Lopez was able to battle through, though. He managed to work around a couple base hits and a lot of balls in the air to complete a solid start. Only Moustakas was truly able to jump at his mistakes, and he’s on pace for at least 40 home runs this season.

This start was entirely emblematic of Lopez’ prospect profile. His stuff is incredible, and when he’s on he’s going to dazzle with all three pitches. When he’s not missing bats, however, the contact he gives up is often in the air (42.8 percent fly balls in Charlotte). That contact in the air becomes dangerous when it’s hit with even a little gusto or catches a stream of wind or perhaps is carried further because of a juiced ball. Such was the case against Moustakas, whose fly balls both landed beyond the outfield wall.

Analysts and scouts have doubted Lopez’s ability to start in the long term. It’s easy to scoff at such statements when merely peering at box scores from minor league games. Lopez certainly looked like he was handling a starter’s role with ease in Charlotte. Those box scores don’t quite tell the whole story, and it’s not until a pitcher is given a good look that the concerns come to light.

The concerns about Lopez’ future as a starter were on display Friday. While he did work through the sixth inning allowing just two earned runs, the concern about a future in the bullpen is entirely warranted. The stuff is good. It’s really good. But if he is unable to induce weak contact and ground balls, as was the case against the Royals, the profile screams future reliever. When he’s on, he’s striking out batters left and right while driving up his pitch count. When he’s off, hitters make more contact. That contact is often in the air, leading to home runs allowed.

It should be mentioned that this is all based on one start. Things can change for better or worse in the future starts Lopez will see throughout the months of August and September. However, it was impossible to ignore the warning signals about the future of the lively right-handed arm.

Lead photo credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

But the double blow of them losing Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas in the same collision/near miss–the latter gone for the season with an ACL tear–is a brutal blow for the defending champions, who are already off to an underwhelming 24-22 start. Gordon had stumbled out of the gate offensively, but Moustakas was second on the team in home runs despite only playing 27 of Kansas City’s 46 games, and together they hobble the left side of the Royal defense that would otherwise has been and would be considered elite.

There were many reasons why the Royals dynasty–back-to-back AL pennants and 270 victories in three seasons deserves some kind of recognition–was due to end this year. Their reliance on extraordinary relief pitching, otherworldly outfield defense, and playing their savant catcher every damn day has always ran the risk of suddenly entering a deep decline at any moment, and the willingness to hang most of their innings on mediocre starters yet again was tempting fate.

But if this is the reason they fall from the top, if grim injury is what ends their torment of the AL Central, it will be a shame.

The Royals have been nothing short of perfect foils of the White Sox for the last four seasons. Almost every pitching probables matchup between the two seems like it portends a walkover for Chicago, only for the Royals to defeat them with almost mocking precision while the Sox bleed value at every margin. This has mostly come while the two franchises have been at polar opposite points in their competitive cycles, but a proto-version of these Royals helped kill the Sox playoff bid at the end of 2012.

As tiresome as seeing the same movie can be, and as much as I never need to hear Hawk Harrelson to make the same talking point about high contact rate and “Kansas City specials” again, the Royals’ run is one of the more truly remarkable developments I have observed since I began writing. They have expanded my mind in how I understood what a competitive team can be, and I am thankful for the havoc they have wreaked on my assumptions.

In the wake of my sabermetric awakening, the important push in improving my analysis is moving beyond the different brand of rigidness that a new approach to seeing value can engender. As open minded as I might have thought I was, I still gravitated toward placing faith in teams that made their hay with top of the rotation starters that soaked up innings, and “stable” hitters who avoided peaks and valleys with walks and power.

The Royals defied that, or at least challenged it, with their waves of “lucky” singles that just never ended, a bullpen back end that made the ‘six-inning game’ cliche seem real, and causing havoc with speed to prop up an offense that pre-2015 read like it should be objectively bad. By the time this Royals group finally reached the mountaintop, they defied it a little less, but their mark had already been made. As intensive as covering baseball can get, it can all start to run together at a point. I had to look up just now to remember which one of the Giants World Series teams dominated with their slate of aces, which one was actually an average pitching staff, and which was flat-out pretty bad at it. And an attempt to recall off-hand the details of each Cardinals playoff contender of the last decade would be even harder.

But I will remember these Royals, partly because who could forget a team that so relentlessly tormented the team I cover, but more because you remember who proves you wrong and alters your thinking. If they shrug off these seemingly devastating injuries and keep grinding the division to dust, I’ll remember them even more, but I won’t be as surprised, and I have them to thank for that too.

Lead Image Credit: Kyle Terada // USA Today Sports Images

But the order in which they have come to this 1.5 game lead in the AL Central is causing anxiety. Possibly because it was a five-game lead just a minute ago, possibly because the surging second-place Cleveland Indians were picked by many, PECOTA included, to be their betters and currently have a superior run differential, and possibly because, well, no one in the White Sox starting rotation not named Chris Sale or Jose Quintana has looked capable of turning over a major league lineup twice, which is necessary on most days.

Miguel Gonzalez enters the fray for the fourth time this season, once again looking for a foothold at the fifth starter slot. He enters with a 5.17 ERA, and an even more discouraging 19 hits, 11 strikeouts and 10 walks across 15.1 innings. This is the product of him mostly getting shelled in Toronto but perhaps squeezing more innings out of it than your typical shelling, a borderline gem in Texas that benefitted greatly from a well-time sixth-inning pull, and a disasterpiece in New York where he issued five walks over one strikeout to a bad Yankees offense.

You watch Gonzalez and you see a low-90s fastball with nice sinking action, a slider that flashes average and can get a whiff here or there if the count and the location are right, but you also see a guy who is vacillates between frustrating nibbling and awful mistakes in the zone. The Sox don’t have many options right now–as evidence by Gonzalez going right back in after that Yankees mess–but he needs to start putting together his intriguing ingredients into a palatable meal, in order to get himself off the top of the list of guys to be replaced with a trade acquisition.

Speaking of back of the roster players getting a chance to star, Jerry Sands is batting cleanup and starting at first, as manager Robin Ventura tries to achieve three ends at once: rest Jose Abreu, give a day off to the slumping Avisail Garcia, and give Sands (a career .287/.339/.485 hitter versus lefties) an opportunity to shine against a rare in-division matchup with a lefty starter.

In roster news, Ventura said Jake Petricka is still experiencing soreness in his hip, and while he did not offer a timeline, he does not expect him to return after the minimum 15 days of his disabled list stint. Mike Moustakas returns to the Royals lineup after breaking his thumb. He remains second on the team in homers and slugging percentage despite the absence.

White Sox Lineup:

1. Adam Eaton – RF
2. Jose Abreu – DH
3. Todd Frazier – 3B
4. Jerry Sands – 1B
5. Melky Cabrera – LF
6. Brett Lawrie – 2B
7. Austin Jackson- CF
8. Dioner Navarro – C
9. Tyler Saladino – SS

SP – Miguel Gonzalez

Royals Lineup:

1.  Alcides Escobar – SS
2. Mike Moustakas – 3B
3. Lorenzo Cain – CF
4. Eric Hosmer – 1B
5. Kendrys Morales – DH
6. Alex Gordon – LF
7. Salvador Perez – C
8. Whit Merrifield – 2B
9. Jarrod Dyson – RF

SP – Danny Duffy

The game is at 1:10pm CT on CSN.

Lead Image Credit: Anthony Gruppuso // USA Today Sports Images