In an ideal 2017 season, the White Sox never have to rely on Mike Pelfrey or pitchers of his ilk. The rotation stays healthy. Carlos Rodon stays of the disabled list and blossoms. James Shields regains his old form, and if not, he at least absorbs innings until the young guns become seasoned enough in their small southern cities. Derek Holland emerges as a useful post-boom trade chit and Dylan Covey makes other GMs envious and upset that their Rule V draft picks didn’t amount to anything. Pelfrey’s early-April minor league contract was supposed to be insurance against one or two things going wrong. A last line of defense if needed.

The Sox made it until April 22 before needing him.

The fact that Pelfrey pitched the third most innings for the 2017 White Sox makes it even more remarkable that the team only finished with the fourth worst record in all of baseball. A rotation composed of injured pitchers and half-seasons from gentlemen now pitching elsewhere somehow managed to give up fewer runs per game than seven other teams! Sorry, I keep getting distracted by this baffling team.

Big Pelf Dawg is not the pitcher he was when the Mets drafted him ninth overall back in 2005 (we are all so damned old). Injuries and time will do that to athletes. He’s not even really the same pitcher who managed a minor bounceback season with the Twins in 2015. No, Pelfrey is what he is at this point: a buffer. And he did that well enough.

I can’t imagine what it’s like to go out there and pitch 120 innings knowing you just don’t have it anymore. Standing in front of thousands of people with thousands more at home watching on TV or their laptops, focused on you every single play of the game. You know your fastball is slower. Your breaking balls don’t bite like they once did. The new young hitters are sprouting up all around you and you won’t be a part of this team the next time they’re competing for a playoff spot. You’re filler. You know it, your opponent knows it, a size-able chunk of the fans in the stands know it. But you pick up the ball and you battle as best you can.

Pelfrey hasn’t been a good pitcher in years. He most certainly wasn’t one for the White Sox this season. But he gave them innings when they desperately needed them and he did so in a situation that requires more personal bravery and inner strength than I’m all but certain I couldn’t handle.

Lead Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Pelfrey and Yoan Moncada are very different players. Pelfrey is a veteran pitcher who was brought to Chicago simply to provide innings of work regardless of the production he provided. Moncada was the prized prospect acquired in the Chris Sale trade. He’ll be on the White Sox for many years to come, hopefully producing at a high level. Despite being almost entirely different players, there is one thing both Pelfrey and Moncada have in common: they put a lot of backwards Ks in the scorebook.

There has been a lot of hand wringing about the start to Moncada’s White Sox career. He has struck out in 31 of his first 89 plate appearances with a .151 ISO that doesn’t exactly make up for the lack of contact. Moncada has oft been considered a five tool player, but the one tool that has always lagged behind is his hitting ability. If he could cut down on the strikeouts, he could really tap into his great potential. In that sense, striking out about a third of the time over his first 100 plate appearances or so is quite concerning.

Concern can be tempered, however, by noting that a significant portion of Moncada’s strikeouts have come in the looking fashion. Of his 31 strikeouts, he’s watched 11 of them pass him by. That’s 35.5 percent, seventh highest in all of baseball. It’s over a much smaller sample than the rest, but it does make the strikeout numbers look a little more bearable. The names above him include Joey Votto, Anthony Rendon, and Travis Shaw, who are known to be very discerning hitters. With a patient approach comes getting caught looking.

Moncada has shown a great amount of patience at the plate, walking 15.7 percent of the time to help boost his OBP to .348 despite having just a .205 batting average. And sometimes, maybe too often, that patience has resulted in called third strikes. Yes, Moncada still isn’t making contact at a rate that is preferred. However, he’s been caught looking a good percentage of the time, showing his advanced approach at the plate.

It’s probably not an unfair assumption that the number of looking strikeouts will drop as Moncada adjusts to major league pitching and the strike zone in the big leagues. If he can lower his strikeout rate even just below 30 percent, his short season will look even better. He can do so with ease if he adjusts to the boundaries of the major league strike zone. Another assumption here is that swinging strikeouts are inherently worse than ones that simply pass by. Swinging strikes say more about Moncada’s occasional inability to make contact by swinging too hard while getting caught looking says a lot about the pitcher hitting his spots, or even the umpire making an error. Moncada needs to improve his discernment of close strikes, but the fact that he hasn’t been killed by swinging strikes is a great sign moving forward.

Pelfrey was brought in by the White Sox to provide innings for a team desperately in need of them, especially when starters went down to injury and were eventually traded away. He surprisingly performed well for a while, but his ERA currently sits at 5.23 while striking out just 14.3 percent of the batters he has faced. His stuff has not impressed.

Perhaps the complete lack of stuff has frozen hitters, because Pelfrey holds the third best looking strikeout rate in baseball at 40.3 percent. The veteran hasn’t seen much success this season in general, but that makes it even more interesting that he’s caught so many batters looking. 25 out of 62 total strikeouts on the season isn’t quite life changing, but it remains an odd mystery that he’s been able to leave batters in such shock with two strikes.

Moncada and Pelfrey couldn’t be more different. One is a hitter, and the other is a pitcher. One is a veteran; the other is the No. 1 prospect in baseball at just 22 years old. And yet, they share this odd similarity. It doesn’t mean anything to compare the two; it’s just an odd coincidence in an odd season.

Moncada has struck out a concerning amount during his first couple weeks in a White Sox uniform. The fact that he’s done so looking over 30 percent of the time is a small comfort. It’s something he can easily improve upon, and it says a lot about his advanced approach. Pelfrey hasn’t notched very many strikeouts this season, but nearly half of them have been looking. He’s caught hitters off guard, using that to his advantage. However, it hasn’t led to any success at all for the veteran.

Strikeouts are always frustrating for the batter while being satisfying for the pitcher. When they are in the looking fashion, those emotions can become even more enhanced. A great number of looking strikeouts also mean drastically different things for hitters and pitchers. For a hitter, it’s often a sign of a good approach that ends in a poor result because of a close pitch. For a pitcher, it’s often an indicator of throwing the ball in the zone a lot, occasionally catching hitters off guard. It’s an encouraging sign for Moncada and a concerning one for Pelfrey, which aligns with the common assumptions about both players. Moncada has a bright future while Pelfrey is a veteran in the last legs of his career.

Lead photo credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

2. Miguel Gonzalez, James Shields, and Mike Pelfrey were the other three pitchers to go against the Red Sox over the weekend. They pitched just about as badly as Rodon did well. Gonzalez lasted just 1 2/3 innings while giving up seven earned runs. Shields and Pelfrey both spent more time looking over their shoulder at home runs than delivering to the plate. A lot of this is to be expected. The White Sox aren’t good, and being good isn’t their current intent. Gonzalez’s start was clearly not one that is ever desired, but there were positives to be found in the starts made by both Shields and Pelfrey. Shields was able to scrape by six innings while Pelfrey was just a single out away from doing the same. With a bullpen that’s been emptied through trades often taking on the burden of finishing games in which the starter leaves far too early, those types of outings are incredibly important. The bullpen was beleaguered in the first game of the series because of Gonzalez’ short start, but Shields and Pelfrey were able to help chip in to keeping the arms in the pen well-rested.

3. Zack Collins has been the subject of much debate as part of a loaded White Sox farm system. The results have been bad, but the tools he showed in his time at Miami were good enough to make him Chicago’s first round pick a little over a year ago. Being an older player stuck in High-A is never a great sign, especially when he’s struggling mightily to hit the ball. One of the weaknesses that has been pointed out in his game since draft day is the existence of a hitch in his swing. The Athletic’s James Fegan recently saw him in North Carolina and received some answers to questions about his poor season. Collins recognizes his failures, but he refuses to put the blame on anything other than his own poor play. That kind of maturity is important in a player that has struggled early in his pro career. The hope is that he figures things out in 2018, putting himself back among the best White Sox prospects.

4. Rick Hahn spoke at Saber Seminar, an annual baseball analytics conference in Boston, this weekend. He provided a Q&A for those in attendance and unsurprisingly received questions about when Reynaldo Lopez would make his way to Chicago. His response was vague but blunt enough to draw a real conclusion.

Asked about pitching prospects being called up, Hahn said "Maybe buy tickets for Friday night."

— Phenomenal Source (@SouthSideSox) August 5, 2017

It certainly seems like Lopez will be making his first White Sox start on Friday. He pitched on Sunday, having his worst start in recent weeks. It wasn’t a complete disaster, but he did allow four earned runs on four hits and three walks in five innings pitched. The good news is that he struck out nine. His stuff is certainly ready for the big leagues, but the question remains about whether he can control the ball well enough to maintain a starting role. It looks like Lopez will get two months in the big leagues to prove that he can. At the very least, it gives White Sox fans something to look forward to and watch as this team tumbles even lower in the standings.

5. Yoan Moncada hasn’t had an earth-shattering start to his White Sox career, but that doesn’t make him a bust either. Things have started to turn around, however, in the trip to Boston. He registered hits in five of his 17 plate appearances and also drew three walks. He still isn’t quite at the level that is expected, but he’s certainly showing a good process. When he adjusts to major league pitching and becomes more aggressive, he should see more success. It’s far too early to be worried about the young second baseman.

Lead Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Their run differential following Wednesday’s 4-2 loss in Minnesota is now zero, which is somehow second best in their division, and their Third Order Winning Percentage entering the day was .495. Put simply, the White Sox performance to date is more in line with approximately a .500 team.

That difference also only equates to about three wins, so we’re not saying the White Sox have been unlucky to a substantial degree, but this illustrates by larger point. The White Sox are somehow playing better than their record despite their staring pitching performing like utter trash.

First, the season stats: Entering play Wednesday, White Sox starters have thrown the third fewest innings in the American League, ahead of just Minnesota and Baltimore. Their 4.85 ERA is ahead of only the aforementioned pair and Seattle. Their HR/9 is tied for third worst with Seattle, ahead of only Minnesota and the LA Angels. They’re striking out batters at the fourth worst rate in the league, and they’re walking batters at the second highest rate in the league.

Using an arbitrary end point, in 18 games since the calendar turned to June, the White Sox have had only one starter go seven innings and only five times have they gone six innings. Starters have only lasted as much as five innings in half of those 18 games.

You get the point.

We knew coming into the season that the White Sox pitching depth was thin. The fact that as we approach the halfway point, the only starters who started the season with the team and have yet to spend time on the disabled list are Jose Quintana and Derek Holland — and neither have been particularly good — means we’ve seen a whole lot of Dylan Covey, David Holmberg, and Mike Pelfrey, hardly a trio that elicits a whole lot of confidence. What’s funny is that those three more or less held their own, relative to expectations, but Holland, Quintana, and Miguel Gonzalez have all been underwhelming.

2. Really, it’s been a credit to the White Sox bullpen that the White Sox are merely the second worst team in the American League and not on par with, say, the Philadelphia Phillies. They currently sport the fourth best ERA in the American League and sixth best K/9.

This, of course, is not sustainable, and Rick Renteria is well aware.

“These guys are trying to give us length,” manager Rick Renteria said. “It just hasn’t happened. I get it. I don’t anticipate that’s what’s going to continue to happen as we move forward. I don’t think anybody could sustain over a long haul using your starters for three or four innings. It’s impossible. You would wear out your arms in the pen. Today we were fortunate in that we just used two guys for quite a few innings and outs. … They did a very nice job. That type of work is unsustainable.”

One of the crazier aspects of the White Sox bullpen’s stellar performance is that it hasn’t come from the guys you would’ve expected coming into the season. David Robertson has been better than last season, but Nate Jones and Zach Putnam have both been injured for most of the season, while Tommy Kahnle could be an All-Star and Anthony Swarzak has been lights out for long stretches of the season. Likewise, they’ve gotten competent innings out of the likes of Chris Beck, which I never would’ve imagined coming into the season.

3. We worried at the start of the season that the White Sox pitching depth issues would lead to premature promotions for any of the heralded prospects. That, uh, hasn’t been a problem.

So that’s now 32 IP, 36 H, 27 ER, 23 BB, 16 K, 6 HR and a 7.59 ERA over Carson Fulmer’s last 7 starts

— James Fegan (@JRFegan) June 21, 2017

Once the White Sox acquired Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, Fulmer fell down the totem pole a bit in terms of pitching prospect upside, but the White Sox top arms taking longer than normal to look major league ready is at least worth keeping an eye on. The plus side of having no interest in winning is that their struggles simply mean they get more time at Triple-A to develop, while the downside is that, ya know, they’re struggling.

4. Tim Anderson committed his 16th error of the season in Wednesday’s loss, which is the highest total in baseball by any player at any position.

Errors don’t tell the whole story, of course, but FRAA has him at -2.1 on the season, which is 26th out of 35 qualified shortstops this season (although above bigger names like Jean Segura, Xander Bogaerts, and Brandon Crawford) and right in line with how they viewed him last year (he finished at -4.7 last year in a little more than half a season).

Anderson’s struggles are noticeable, but also given his athleticism and what we’ve seen from him when he’s at his best, they’re likely mental. I’d fathom a guess he’ll break out of his defensive funk sooner rather than later.

5. The White Sox announced the signing of first round pick Jake Burger on Wednesday to a signing bonus worth $3.7 million. They also reportedly came to terms with second round pick Gavin Sheets on an over-slot deal worth approximately $2 million.

They saved approximately $500K on signing Burger under-slot, and also reportedly got third round pick Luis Gonzalez to sign for $119K less than his slot, so some of those savings went to Sheets. It’s nice to see the White Sox avoid any type of draft pick signing drama, and all of their top picks should be reporting to short season ball soon enough.

For full coverage of White Sox draft pick signings, our friends at FutureSox are a great resource.

Lead Photo Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

First it was announced that the White Sox had prevailed in their bidding war with the Cardinals.  And although Cardinals twitter sees this as a continuing trend where they have silver medaled in pursuit of a prized free agent–Jason Heyward (which is looking like a blessing if you like St. Louis), David Price, Max Scherzer, etc.–this was still an upset.  Dexter Fowler’s current contract would represent the biggest in White Sox history by approximately $15 million.

For a lot of the White Sox fan base, Robert represented more than just himself, but as a referendum on how serious the organization is about actually investing in building a winner.  In and of himself, Robert is simultaneously a tremendously exciting talent, and an exaggerated version of what can make the prospect game so dangerous.

Only 19-years-old, Robert was last seen annihilating the Cuban league to the tune of .401/.526/.687, walking more than he struck out. There’s a good chance he can stick in center, but even if he doesn’t, as a physical specimen, Robert looks like he should be able to hit for enough power to play in a corner too.  Indeed, MLB.com has already run video comparing Robert to Yoan Moncada.  

And therein lies one of the pitfalls of a player like Robert.  The temptation to compare him to Moncada is obvious–young, Cuban, monster athlete, and hey, his last year in Cuba wildly outclasses any stat lines Moncada put up! But Moncada is dominating AAA whereas we have yet to see how Robert will adjust to leagues with much more velocity than Cuba has to offer these days, with the ubiquitous fear of an inability to make sufficient contact to access his prodigious tools.

Whenever the signing is finalized and after whatever coaching and adjustment period is resolved, Robert seems likely to start in Low-A. Perhaps the old White Sox philosophy would have yielded an aggressive assignment to Winston-Salem, but frankly, if Zack Collins’ polished college bat was given a chance to repeat at High-A, it would be surprising to see Robert thrown into the deep end in that fashion.  The new approach is decidedly more measured, and justifiably so given how badly hyperaggressive promotions worked out for such a long period of time.

However, while recognizing that there is a lot of risk and development left that Robert will need to do before we can start penciling him in next to Tim Anderson, Moncada, Collins, and others as a staple of the next White Sox playoff team, the excitement around Robert is also based on very real things.  Maybe comparing him to Moncada is facile, but he really is a monster who has demonstrated superlative baseball skill against professional competition.  

Based on what is known about Robert, he appears to slide in behind only Moncada and Michael Kopech in the White Sox system, looking comfortably like a Top 25-ish global prospect, and would have easily been a Top 5 pick in this summer’s draft had he been eligible.

After the dollar-for-dollar tax for exceeding the international bonus pool penalty is assessed, it looks like Robert is going to cost the White Sox approximately $50 million.  But, ask the Red Sox if Moncada’s $60+ million signing was worth it as Chris Sale continues to mow down hitters with extreme prejudice.  Being able to scoop a talent like this without losing a draft pick or trading away significant talent is a rare opportunity, and the White Sox came out on top, injecting even more top end potential into the system even before they grab some more at the 11 pick in June.

What’s more, given the bust rate on most prospects, adding further depth of impact prospects generally is a good idea, and best player available is obviously the ideal philosophy. Here, the White Sox were able to grab the best player available and he fits a glaring organizational need.  The Garcia Revolution notwithstanding, position players generally and the outfield specifically were areas of obvious weakness for the White Sox. For $50 million, the White Sox may have just added a middle of the order, impact bat for six years.

It’s gratifying to see the White Sox win a bidding war, but the organizational upside got that much more impressive with the stroke of a pen.

Oh, and then Mike Pelfrey dominated the Mariners as the White Sox scored sixteen runs, their highest single game outburst since 2014.  

Saturday was a good day.

Lead Photo Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The extra day of rest the Sox lost from Monday’s rainout has been restored, and as of now nothing has changed in terms of the upcoming rotation. Shields is scheduled to pitch on Thursday, with Derek Holland and Miguel Gonzalez slated for Friday and Saturday, respectively. Sunday’s series finale is still listed as TBA, and it’s entirely possible the White Sox skip the fifth spot in the rotation — likely Dylan Covey — in favor of Jose Quintana on regular rest.

This is solid news from an aesthetic standpoint, as skipping the place of whomever replaces Carlos Rodon for however long he’s out means less time, ya know, watching those guys pitch.

Before we get to that point, though, the first guy up will be Shields, whose start will undoubtedly be dissected as he looks to prove he can be a competent starting pitcher following his no good, very bad 2016. Shields’ importance to the 2017 White Sox won’t be measured so much by his ability to help the team win games as it will his ability to soak up innings on a team pretty much devoid of rotation depth. As the current object of the season focuses more on developing young players with an eye toward the future, proving he can function more like the average-ish pitcher he was in 2015 than the sub-replacement performance we saw a year ago would more than acceptable.

2. Speaking of rotation depth, the White Sox added another arm to the stockpile on Wednesday with the addition of Mike Pelfrey on a minor-league deal. Pelfrey was released by the Tigers at the end of Spring Training despite being due $7 million this season and it’s easy to see why after a season in which he posted a 5.07 ERA and a somehow worse 6.42 DRA, while walking almost as many hitters per nine (3.5) as strikeouts per nine (4.2).

Pelfrey is purely a depth signing, but a reasonable one considering the first injury to the rotation brought a Rule 5 draft pick to the forefront, and until any of the prospects are ready for promotion, the next lines of defense at Triple-A include the likes of Chris Volstad and Tyler Danish. Pelfrey isn’t likely to provide anything of value other than innings if and when he’s called upon, but as we’ve already outlined, there is and will be a need there. And besides, when he takes the mound for the White Sox, it’ll be on Detroit’s dime.

3. We’re a little more than two months from the 2016-17 international signing period closing and the White Sox reported pursuit of Cuban outfielder Luis Robert is beginning to take center stage.

Baseball America’s Ben Badler’s scouting report on Robert is glowing, and if the White Sox are able to land him it would give them a top-notch hitting prospect they’re sorely lacking outside of Yoan Moncada and Zack Collins.

Robert has the talent of a first-round pick if he were in the draft. After he signs, he should be ready for an assignment to a low or high Class A affiliate. He has a strong, lean frame at 6-foot-3 with broad shoulders, a wide back and quick-twitch athleticism. A righthanded hitter with excellent bat speed and a sound swing, Robert has plus power with room to continue filling out and increase that in the future.

As Badler notes, the timing of when Robert signs will be key. He has yet to be cleared to sign with a major-league team. If he’s cleared prior to June 15, the White Sox would have a leg-up as they have yet to exceed their bonus allotment for this signing period, as several teams already have. Even if he doesn’t opt to sign until after that date, when teams are allotted between $4.75 and $5.75 million, the White Sox would still be at an advantage as teams that overspent during the previous spending period would be forbidden from signing a period for more than $300,000, of which there are 11 such teams.

White Sox special assistant Marco Paddy was one of a crowd of team scouts and evaluators who attended Robert’s showcase last week, and Badler reported that the White Sox, along with the Astros, were scheduling private workouts with the 19 year old as well.

Rick Hahn has said, without mentioning any specific prospect by name, that the White Sox would be willing to go over their limit in the current international free agent period if the right situation were to present itself. Their pursuit of Robert will be one to watch in the coming months.

4. Amid the news of Monday’s rainout, Tuesday’s loss, and Wednesday’s rainout, the biggest news to come out of the first week of the season thus far was the Rodon health update, which Hahn provided Monday. Rodon has been throwing off flat ground for the last week, and Hahn said if all goes well he will throw from the mound starting on April 10, followed by a minor league rehab assignment. He said the process of getting him ready for the season could take up to six weeks, comparing the process to beginning with the start of spring training and working up to Opening Day.

Rodon missing six weeks would be a significant letdown during a season in which his progress was one of the few things worth watching. From a long term perspective, Rodon is one of the most important pieces in the White Sox future and them doing everything in their power to make sure he’s 100 percent healthy before putting him in a big league game again is completely reasonable.

5. The White Sox have gone a long way to make sure they’re getting a good look at some of the young unknowns that make up the roster this season, the trade of Peter Bourjos and ascension of Jacob May being the most obvious example as May joined Omar Narvaez and, to a lesser extent Tyler Saladino, in the Opening Day starting lineup.

One of the more interesting things to watch will be how Rick Renteria splits up playing time between Matt Davidson and Cody Asche. Davidson falls under the “unknown quantity” category that befits the aforementioned players, and one would assume the White Sox would follow suit with him in regards to playing time. Asche drew the Opening Day start at designated hitter, and while it would be foolish to draw any overwhelming conclusions based on that — it’s entirely possible Renteria just saw it unfit to throw the strikeout-prone Davidson out there against Justin Verlander — the more at-bats the White Sox get him and the other young players, the better.

Lead Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

But by nightfall, the vestiges of their once sincere pursuit of the playoffs took centerstage once again, as James Shields continued his recovery tour.

1. Accepting that Shields is in a permanently degraded form and the best that can be hoped for is that he drags his way to competent results, Thursday night was pretty good! 

Shields might have lost five pounds in sweat over his six innings, but he reached back and found his best changeup enough to escape damage early, striking out Nick Castellanos with runners on to dodge jams in the first and third innings.

But he also relied on fly ball outs on a hot night in U.S. Cellular Field, and that plan really went on the fritz in the fifth inning. Ian Kinsler drilled a center-cut fastball out to tie the game at 1-1, and right after Cameron Maybin flew out very deep to right, Miguel Cabrera golfed out a high changeup deep to left to give the Tigers a 2-1 advantage.

Shields got through six with just those two runs allowed, and has four-straight quality starts now. A sustainable path for effectiveness is not yet carved out, but he’s returned to the realm of competent major league pitching, and that’s not nothing.

2. The bad news is that this may have been the Sox worst effort against Mike Pelfrey yet, and that’s really something. The big right-hander danced around eight hits in 5.1 innings despite only one strikeout. His only run allowed came when Adam Eaton drilled a double to center that missed leaving the park by a few feet, and came around to score when Tim Anderson chopped a bouncer over Cabrera’s head at first.

What few other scoring opportunities emerged died on the vine. The hope brought by a pair of infield singles to start the second evaporated when Brett Lawrie and J.B. Shuck both jammed themselves for easy popouts. When Jose Abreu and Justin Morneau both reached base with one out in the sixth, the Tigers rescued Pelfrey with Shane Greene, who got Todd Frazier to look foolish chasing low and away and induced a weak grounder from Shuck to strand the bases loaded.

3. And then…that…was pretty much it. The top of the seventh inning got played to no meaningful effect, because after a thunderstorm rolled in and pelted the area for over two hours, the game was called.

The Sox never got to bat in the bottom of the seventh but, goodness, did you hear Rick Hahn Thursday afternoon? Who can imagine caring about this?

4. Brett Lawrie left the game mysteriously in the fourth, prompting suspicion that the teardown had already started, but instead he just tweaked his hamstring.

5. Tim Anderson did this, and maybe that’s all that matters.

While we wait out this rain delay, feast your eyes on @TimAnderson7‘s arm strength.https://t.co/S9FKU4DQNa

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) July 22, 2016

Team Record: 46-49

Next game is Friday at 7:10pm CT on CSN

Lead Image Credit: David Banks // USA Today Sports Images

1. Sale was far from dominant Saturday, and while he was still largely effective through five innings (1 ER despite just 2 strikeouts), he ran into trouble in the sixth as J.D. Martinez blasted a two-run home run to put the Tigers ahead 3-2. Despite a clear lack of stuff, Sale was allowed to start the seventh already 100 pitches deep and promptly gave up a Jose Iglesias double and Cameron Maybin single put the game out of reach at 4-2. After going undefeated in Sale’s first nine starts, the Sox have now dropped three in a row (though he was very good in one of those three).
2. Despite coming into Saturday with a 4.96 ERA and a 6.86 DRA, Mike Pelfrey spun a quality start, scattering eight baserunners over six innings and allowing just two earned runs.
3. The loss brings the Sox to an abysmal 3-11 against non-Twins AL Central clubs, who have been the teams the Sox have predominantly played since their tailspin began in mid-May. Clearly, this is not a good way to win a division.
4. For the second consecutive day, a White Sox starter left trailing by two runs, and for the second-straight day, the bullpen turned the game into a blowout as Robin Ventura let its best relievers sit. After Tommy Kahnle and Matt Purke got shelled last night, Matt Albers was left in to throw 34 pitches over 1.1 innings, putting the game too far out of reach for a two-run ninth to matter.
5. The Sox will send Jose Quintana against Justin Verlander Sunday in attempt to salvage the series and cap their 10 game road trip that has started off at 2-7. After that, they will come home to face the NL East-leading Nationals.

Team Record: 28-26

Next game is Sunday at Detroit at 12:10pm CT on WGN

Lead Image Credit: Rick Osentoski // USA Today Sports Images

Back end pitchers also play enough of a role to matter during the course of a 162-game season. Last year, the White Sox played 67 games that were started by someone other than their presumed Top 3 pitchers going into the season (Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Jeff Samardzija). Or more specifically, they accounted for 26 percent of the total innings completely by White Sox pitchers in 2015.

Granted, not every back end starter is cut from the same cloth. Using the White Sox as the most obvious example, Carlos Rodon being your fourth or fifth starter in 2015 is much, much different from John Danks. Looking across the division at Detroit, Daniel Norris at the back end of the rotation is much different than Mike Pelfrey. Likewise, the guys who aren’t necessarily expected to be counted on as more than a back end starter who eats innings at the beginning of the year can sometimes ascend (Esteban Loaiza always comes to mind, for some reason), and guys who start the year as a potential key cog in a rotation can fall off drastically (Hello again, Mr. Samardzija).

Keeping all these caveats in mind, let’s try to get an idea of where the back end of the White Sox rotation stacks up compared to those of their AL Central rivals. Most teams have their rotations basically set at this point in Spring Training, but understanding how incredibly rare it is for a team to use as few as five starters during the season, we’ll look at the projected Nos. 4 and 5 starters for each team, as well as guys who won’t necessarily start the season with the big league club, but have a good chance to start at some point during the season because of injury or performance.

White Sox

Probably most of the work: John Danks, Mat Latos

Other possibilities: Scott Carroll, Erik Johnson, Chris Beck, Carson Fulmer, Jacob Turner

Of the pitchers we’re going to go over, there’s only one pitcher PECOTA actually likes more than Latos, who is projected to be worth 1 WARP and have an ERA in the low 4.00s. The question with Latos, of course, is health, and that’s where the other guys come in.

We pretty much know at this point what to expect out of Danks at this point. Unless Dioner Navarro’s pitch-tipping discovery was truly a revelation, Danks will continue to be a guy who eats innings and occasionally gets hammered. But if Latos can’t stay healthy, the White Sox will depend on a mixture of guys who have struggled to find success during their respective brief major league careers.

Carroll, Johnson, and Beck and Turner to a lesser extent, are all guys who shouldn’t kill you with a spot start or two here and there, but Latos’ ability to stay healthy and be effective enough to remain in the rotation is rather important.

The wild card here is Fulmer, who some believe could join the rotation as early as May or June. In the very good chance that someone ahead of him falters, his ascent could give the White Sox a big boost.

Indians

Probably most of the work: Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin

Other possibilities: Cody Anderson, T.J. House

At 31, one has to wonder if Tomlin’s impressive work in 65 innings in 2015 is truly a sign that he’s fully recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2012 and even better than he was prior to that, but PECOTA seems to think so, as he’s projected to be worth more WARP than any other pitcher currently pegged for the Nos. 4 and 5 spots in their respective rotations.

Between Bauer — a former top prospect who has shown flashes of brilliance but continues to be erratic and inconsistent, and Tomlin if he’s as good as he could be, the Indians likely have the best back end options of any team in the AL Central. Where things get dicey is what comes if either guy falters or suffers injury. House and Anderson, like the White Sox group of mediocrity, are fine in a pinch, but depth is lacking here. After those two, there isn’t a whole lot to fall back on, and unlike the rest of the teams in the division, there’s no youngster close to major league-ready who could break through.

Luckily for the Indians, they arguable have the best pitching staff in the division. It’s just the depth that is lacking.

Tigers

Probably most of the work: Daniel Norris, Mike Pelfrey

Other possibilities: Shane Greene, Kyle Ryan, Michael Fulmer, Matt Boyd

Detroit’s pitching depth will be tested right off the bat this season, as promising youngster Norris will begin the season on the disabled list. Greene seems most likely to get the fifth slot in the rotation in his absence, and after impressing despite being thrust into duty with the 2014 Yankees, he fell back down to earth last season after a trade brought him to Detroit.

Most of Detroit’s depth is relatively untested at the major league level, as Ryan has gained a spot start or two during 66 career innings across two seasons, and Boyd, while still only 25, was really, really bad in spot start duties with both Detroit and Toronto a year ago.

The only non-youngster of the bunch is Pelfrey, who was surprisingly competent in Minnesota a year ago after a variety of injuries — including Tommy John surgery back in 2012 — limited him to 37 starts from 2012-14. If he holds up, he should be a constant in the back end of Detroit’s rotation, eating innings and pitching to contact. He is Detroit’s Danks.

Fulmer — the other Fulmer — is like the White Sox’s version, a wild card. After being acquired from the Mets in last season’s Yoenis Cespedes deal, he immediately became the best prospect in Detroit’s moribund system and could see the majors this year. Between Fulmer and Norris, Detroit has a pair of young arms to be excited about.

Twins

Probably most of the work: Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco

Other possibilities: Tyler Duffey, J.R. Graham, Taylor Rogers, Jose Berrios

I believe Ethan Spalding put it best when it comes to the Twins and their pitching staff:

the Twins pitching dev is obviously a front for a top secret cloning op but why did they choose to clone Brad Radke instead of Johan Santana

— Ethan Spalding (@SpaldingBalls) March 29, 2016

It’s true that the Twins’ rotation is filled with mediocrity. The fact that the back end of the rotation isn’t much less impressive than the top guys isn’t a good sign for the team as a whole, but that they’re loaded with guys who eat innings, stay healthy and keep them in games is at least somewhat nice. Milone and Nolasco are basically interchangeable in that regard, but if Duffey slips into the fifth starter role at some point he may be a nice change.

While his profile doesn’t portend a lot of strikeouts, the 25-year-old did strike out 8.2 batters per nine innings, but he also walked his fair share. He’s likely a swingman long-term, but the Twins would be well served to give him and fellow 25-year-old Rogers a look if they fall out of the race early.

Those two, along with the aforementioned veteran inning eaters, are of course just holding the place of 21-year-old flamethrower Berrios, who in reality you should’t expect to see until September. The five guys listed before Berrios won’t be the problem with the 2016 Twins, it’ll likely be the lack of a dominant arm at the front of the rotation.

Royals

Probably most of the work: Kris Medlen, Chris Young

Other possibilities: Danny Duffy, Mike Minor, Kyle Zimmer, Chien-Ming Wang

The defending champions have, on paper, the weakest backend of the rotation in the division. Medlen, who is kept together by pins and needles at this point, was a solid reliever for most of 2015 after finally recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, while Young rode some good BABIP luck to good results in 2015 before falling apart late. In fact, Young is the only player mentioned on this list who PECOTA projects to be worth a negative amount in 2016.

Royals Devil Magic could strike once again, but if Medlen’s body falters and Young can’t produce, what’s left?

The most likely candidate to get innings in that scenario is Duffy, who outpitched his peripherals in 2014 before falling back to earth a season ago. Duffy is a fine back end of the rotation option who the Royals would probably be better off using over Young at this point, but after that things get very dicey. Minor hasn’t pitched since 2014 and will begin the season on the 60-day DL, and I’m just as surprised as you are to see Wang still hanging around.

Zimmer, much like the law firm of Fulmer & Fulmer, could be a game-changer for Kansas City, however, and may be closer to making his major league debut than either of them. If he does, and one of the Medlen/Young/Duffy trio proves capable, the Royals will be fine.

Summary

OK, so what we just looked at proves something that may be rather obvious: that the back end of the rotation isn’t always very pretty. However, while the raw numbers of these guys aren’t pretty, it’s clear that having a number of pitchers who won’t murder your team’s chances of winning every time they step on the mound is as important as ever, especially with starters throwing fewer innings than ever before in major league history.

The White Sox rolling with Danks and Latos at the start of the season seems fine, especially when you compare them to their division rivals. Those two and the rest eating up innings while Sale, Quintana and Rodon do all the heavy lifting will be an important factor in the team’s success in 2016.

Top Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports