But I’m not being fair. I’ll justify this by saying that, coming into the season, there were much higher hopes regarding Delmonico than, say, Charlie Tilson. He was solidly on the 25-man roster coming out of Spring Training and likely to remain, at least until the presumptive promotion of Eloy Jimenez that never actually materialized.

You know Delmonico’s story by now. He came out of nowhere in 2017 and parlayed a strong season in Triple-A into a surprising promotion during another noncompetitive season by the White Sox. He continued to surprise, showing advanced plate discipline and good enough contact skills to make one wonder if the White Sox had found the kind of diamond in the rough you usually see come around in St. Louis, Los Angeles, or Oakland. He played in 43 games and got 166 plate appearances and was worth 1.2 WARP. Nothing spectacular, but not bad when you consider he didn’t even get a lineout in that year’s BP Annual, nor was he listed among the organization’s Top 30 prospects.

If 2018 were any indication, there was probably good reason. While he lost about a month early in the season to a broken hand, when Delmonico played, he wasn’t good. His walk rate dropped from 13.9 to 8.5 percent. His strikeout rate ballooned from 18.7 to 25.2 percent. His overall batting line plummeted to .215/.296/.373, and he hit one fewer home run than the previous year despite nearly doubling his amount of plate appearances. Delmonico’s biggest issue coming up and in 2017 was that there was nowhere defensively where he wasn’t considered a minus, but that was much easier to stomach when he was displaying above-average skills at the plate.

So where does that leave him? It’s certainly possible given the lack of imminent outfield promotions outside of Eloy Jimenez that the White Sox keep Delmonico around for depth, but where he was squarely in the team’s plans entering 2018, he ended it in a glut of flawed outfield/corner infield/DH-type players competing for playing time along with the likes of Daniel Palka, Matt Davidson, and Ryan LaMarre. Avisail Garcia’s precarious season only adds to the uncertainty.

The sad truth if you’re keen on seeing the most handsome face in the organization is that he might not be long for the team.

Lead Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

*They absolutely should have.

• Matt Davidson: Working in Davidson’s favor, he has Top 100 Prospect pedigree, even if that is now several years in the rear view mirror, which jives with his pretty, powerful swing.  He also used 2018 to nearly triple his walk rate while shaving five points off his K%.  The result is a 110 OPS+ on the year to date, with an OBP up nearly 70 points (!!) from wildly below league average to slightly above.  The drawbacks here are a lack of athleticism and positional flexibility on the weak side of a platoon, as he can barely manage playing third base once a week and does not have the footspeed to cover for an outfield spot.  The hope is, given his improvement from 2017 to 2018, there’s more in there.  A Matt Davidson with this walk rate who hits .250-.260 instead of .220-.230 moves further from “decent bat for the position and bench contributor” to a solid regular.  The most intriguing X Factor here is the ability he has flashed as a pitcher in extremely limited samples.  Modern roster construction where teams carry 13 or 14 pitchers leaves almost no room on the bench for position players.  If Davidson can throw 10-20 innings a year, even in the lowest of leverage scenarios, it might separate him from his competition or allow the team to carry one less pitcher.  My gut says he sticks around for 2019, but we have not yet seen the acquisitions and departures of the winter.
• Daniel Palka:  Beloved by StatCast and certain enthusiastic portions of the fanbase, Palka’s power has always been loud and obvious.  For much of the year, however, it was the only thing he could do at a major league level.  Palka turns 27 in October and although the White Sox have given him run in the outfield, he’s arguably worse there than Davidson is at third.  To his credit, September has been his best month in terms of getting on base yet, as he has hit .246/.317/.667  (with eight more home runs, pushing him into the team lead with 27).  Palka is also left-handed, and one wishes teams would start contracting their bullpens to start platooning their opponents to death with bats like this on the bench.   Even so, like 2017 Davidson, it’s hard to carry a bat-only guy who can’t get his OBP above .300, as Palka sits at .289 on the year.  He has an option year left in 2019, so as long as there is 40-man space, they don’t have to make a final decision on him just yet.  Depending on who is healthy / here / gone next spring, I expect Palka to start the year in Charlotte or to fill in if someone is hurt in the hopes he makes a Davidsonian walk rate jump and becomes a more well-rounded weapon at the plate, because he is basically DH-only at this point.
• Nicky Delmonico:  Here’s where things get a little more grim.  Delmonico started the year with the inside track on the left field job after an excellent, albeit brief, audition in 2017.  However, the power he showed last year already looked like an outlier before it vanished this year in limited action bookending a huge chunk of the season lost to injury.  He’s 26 and has flashed major league production before, but there’s only so many of these guys you can keep around, and frankly, I’m not sure there’s enough power in here to carry the glove.  It doesn’t help that his signature strengths–zone control and contact–absolutely imploded, as his BB% dropped from 13.9 to 9.0 and his K% spiked from 18.7 to 25.2.  Like Palka, I anticipate the White Sox will exercise his option, but one has to imagine Palka has jumped over him in the organizational pecking order.
• Avisail Garcia:  Look, all I’m saying is he has 2,475 major league PAs and only 518 of them were good.  Those 518 came in 2017 and they were amazing, as he went to the All Star Game and nearly won a batting title.  My concern is how volatile the profile is, particularly taken in tandem with his truly impressive cascade of injuries.  And, when he’s going well, he’s shoring up his batting average and on-base skills with a remarkable number of infield hits.  The guy gets down the line really, really well for anyone, let alone someone his size–but he’s been managing a lot of lower body injuries this year, and one wonders if gains in eye and power will make up for the loss in speed as he ages further into his late 20s.  He’s under contract for one more year in 2019 and barring the signing of say, Bryce Harper, he’s almost certainly the starting right fielder next year.  I’m just so certain he winds up on the Cardinals and hits .300/.400/.500 for three years sooner rather than later.  Conversely, if the White Sox extend him, he will continue to randomly hit .350 for a couple months between long stretches of basically being a non-contributor.

In sum, injuries and mixed performances have not shed as much clarity as you might like on this pecking order, although I would give Davidson and Palka decent odds of being deployed creatively as significant complementary contributors down the line if they continue to shore up their weaknesses.  As has been the case for most of his career, how the organization chooses to handle Avisail depends on his performance and their own willingness to keep betting on his underlying talent, which in turn, will have big consequences for the fate of the team as a whole.

Lead Image Credit:  Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Carson Fulmer’s demotion Friday — following yet another disastrous start — made sense in that even in a rotation rife with poor outings, his inability to show any semblance of getting through a major league lineup was doing no good for him or the team. Fulmer was drafted as someone who was expected to be close to major league ready and move quickly through the system. He did, even if he never really showed the ability to get even minor league hitters out.

At the risk of overreacting, it’s entirely possible that Fulmer is a lost cause at this point. The White Sox will continue to work him as a starting pitcher in Triple-A Charlotte, and while the assumption has always been that if he fails as a starter he still has the ability to be a productive reliever, there’s no guarantee of that either. Regardless of his future, sending him down made sense as there was just no point in seeing him get pounded every fifth day.

2. The logical replacement, you and I both say, is to call up Michael Kopech, who rebounded from his first truly poor outing of the season by striking out nine and allowing just four baserunners in seven shutout innings Friday. There’s plenty to be said about why the White Sox are keeping Kopech in Triple-A for the time being — whether they really want him to continue getting comfortable with the change-up or if it’s merely service-time manipulation — but regardless, it appears that’s not where they’re going … at least not yet.

Fulmer’s replacement on the roster in the short-term is Dylan Covey, who was called up prior to Saturday’s game against the Rangers. While it’s yet to be determined if Covey will take Fulmer’s spot in the rotation or if he’s merely serving as bullpen depth until that spot comes back around, I wouldn’t expect him to stick around for all that long. The White Sox rotation options are lacking at the moment behind James Shields, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Hector Santiago (who appears to be in the rotation by default at this point), but Carlos Rodon made his first rehab start Saturday in Low-A Kannapolis and is still expected to join the rotation in early June. It’s entirely possible the White Sox hang with the aforementioned incumbents and Covey until Rodon’s return.

If Kopech is off the table, there isn’t much of a choice. Along with Covey, the only other reasonable options are equally unappealing. There’s other Triple-A journeymen like Donn Roach or T.J. House; Tyler Danish has been pitching primarily in relief this year, and Jordan Stephens — probably the next most appealing option outside of Kopech — has just one start since joining Charlotte last week. These scenarios are hardly appetizing, but it’s the reality in which we seem to be living right now.

3. Lopez provided some relief to the White Sox rotation woes Sunday, putting together arguably the best start of his career in helping the White Sox to their first series win since the first series of the season. Even outside of his most recent outing when he was downright bad in lasting just 2 1/3 innings, Lopez’s peripherals hadn’t matched the results he had put up thus far this season. Sunday, Lopez was both efficient and filthy in tossing a career-high eight innings, striking out eight, walking two, and giving up two base hits.

Lopez showed the swing-and-miss-ability we’ve long known him to have, generating 16 whiffs, including 12 on a fastball that averaged 96 and hit as high as 98. Beyond that, he effectively worked ahead and kept the ball down except when he was elevating the fastball for a strikeout. Through six innings, only one of the Rangers’ recorded outs were fly outs, and they ended with only four in the entire game. That he lasted eight innings was a credit to his efficiency, and his 107 pitches were also a career high.

It was one start against a particularly bad offense, but a solid sign of progress from a unit that desperately needed it.

4. Speaking of struggling positional groups, Nicky Delmonico was hit by a pitch Friday and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a broken wrist. After a surprisingly strong debut in 2017, Delmonico has struggled mightily thus far, showing the same keen batter’s eye, but almost no pop whatsoever, slugging just .302 through 135 plate appearances.

The White Sox outfield options are perhaps even more grim than the rotation. While Avisail Garcia remains disabled and is now expected to be out until late June at the earliest, and until the team decides it’s time for Eloy Jimenez to come up, the options outside those already on the 25-man roster are limited, as evidenced by the decision to replace Delmonico on the roster with an infielder — Jose Rondon — as opposed to another outfielder. Some combination of Leury Garcia, Adam Engel, Trayce Thompson, and Daniel Palka will be run out there on a daily basis, although Rick Renteria intimated recently that they may consider giving Yolmer Sanchez — he of two career innings in the outfield — a shot at some point. Beyond that, internal options are severely lacking. Charlie Tilson has a .592 OPS in Triple-A, we’ve played the Jacob May game once already, Ryan Cordell is broken, and any other outfielder with a semblance of promise is too far away.

We’ve said on a number of occasions that the rebuild provides opportunities for players who might not otherwise get the chance to prove they belong, and there’s no better example than the outfield as currently constructed. Until Jimenez is called up or Garcia (who also struggled mightily pre-injury and is far from “established” even if he’s more so than the other guy), we’ll be seeing a whole lot of the aforementioned foursome.

5. An unexpected bright spot on an otherwise desolate season is that Jace Fry is apparently now a lights-out reliever. The 24-year-old lefty, who struggled in a brief debut in 2017, has now tossed 8 1/3 hitless innings since his return to Chicago, striking out 12 and walking just two. In Saturday’s win, Rick Renteria trusted him with a two-run lead in the eighth inning, and on Sunday he got the call in a 3-0 game to nail down his first career save.

Fry is an interesting case in that he wasn’t really on the radar prior to last season. Two Tommy John surgeries will do that to you. After last season’s reliever exodus, he earned an opportunity, and likely would have at the start of this season as well if not for an oblique injury. Relievers are volatile enough that him becoming an out-of-nowhere asset wouldn’t be the strangest thing in the world, but it would be far from predictable. It’s only been eight innings, but Fry has absolutely showed signs of becoming a valuable piece in another White Sox unit that could use something good to happen.

Lead Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

1. Part of the odd tension of the 2018 season is despite the pitching staff’s massive struggles, there hasn’t been an obvious candidate to call up from Charlotte. Sure, Michael Kopech is a megaprospect, with all of the service time and fears of getting his development anything other than perfect which come with that status.  After him was a collection of veteran organizational depth and arms like Tyler Danish and Dylan Covey who aspire to fifth starter status.  However, the White Sox recently promoted Jordan Stephens from Double-A to Triple-A.  There was reason to believe Stephens could have started the year in Charlotte, as a college draftee who performed solidly over ~90 innings in Birmingham in 2017.  He’s already 25 and won’t be confused with the Kopechs of the world, but he’s much closer to a Prospect with a capital P who is now at the highest affiliate.
2. Yoan Moncada returns from his DL stint on Tuesday. Hopefully he can just pick up right where he left off when he tweaked his hamstring, as he was finally converting his excellent eye and power into results on the field.  Losing at the same clip as the ’03 Tigers is never going to be enjoyable, but at least with Moncada morphing into a superstar it’s more bearable if it does. It also makes victories a little bit more likely as well.
3. Matt Davidson’s renaissance continues apace, as he has now set a career high for walks in a season with 22, after only 141 PAs. Indeed, his K:BB is at 43:22 compared to his 2017 ratio of 165:19.  Accordingly he’s hitting a complete and excellent .261/.383/.591 on the year.  As I have pointed out, along with those smarter than I, the Astros championship goes far beyond “Tank for high draft picks à” Jose Altuve and Dallas Keuchel were already in Houston before the tank, but when they tore down it meant a lot more playing time, giving two relative non-prospects the run to become stars.  If Davidson can keep this up moving forward, it may be a lot more significant than, say, if Blake Rutherford develops.
4. Every time I voice doubt about Adam Engel’s hitting, it seems as though he goes 2-for-4. Then again, here I am looking at his stat sheet and he’s at .193/.265/.250 after another 100 PAs.  Unlike with Stephens and the imminent Kopech, the solution here is less clear short of simply giving the job to the superior Leury Garcia full time, unless and until Eloy Jimenez comes up.  Even then, it doesn’t create an elegant remedy for the hole in center field.  Instead, the rampaging Eloy puts pressure on…
5. …Nicky Delmonico. After a surprising breakout 2017, the 25-year-old outfielder is hitting .231/.339/.317.  His patience and contact skills are still apparent, but his power has absolutely vanished.  The weather’s been cold, it’s still not a lot of at bats to judge by, but there’s reason to believe the ball is less juiced than 2017.  What’s more, it’s worth remembering Delmonico has a career .432 slugging percentage in the minors.  Players get better, and this isn’t me giving up on him, but it’s fair to remember before last year, he didn’t have much game power, and it could be last year is the aberration not this one.

The Rebuild is still on, despite lots of injuries pausing the progress of a variety of big names in the system — Alec Hansen, Luis Robert, Jake Burger, etc. — and it’s inching closer. Just…very slowly.

Lead Image Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

It doesn’t matter. We know in our well-conditioned brain that in a few weeks or a month, what happened Thursday isn’t going to be fresh in our memories, and there’s a good chance whatever the outcomes of those games are going to have very little bearing on how these teams and players are performing in Game 31 or 62 or 100. But we react to the good and the bad with a level of excitement that isn’t seen for most median regular season games, because it’s Opening Day. It’s exciting. After five months, baseball games matter again.

The White Sox 14-7 victory over the Royals didn’t follow any typical script. The White Sox hit six home runs — three by Matt Davidson, two by Tim Anderson, and one by Jose Abreu — in coming back from an early 4-0 deficit to wallop a division rival. All three of Davidson’s bombs registered at a higher mph than any one he hit last season, per Statcast, and he became the first player in the Statcast era to hit three home runs that all registered faster than 110 mph.

It was the kind of performance that’s easy to dream on. No, the White Sox are going to average 14 runs per game. They probably won’t set a major league record for home runs in a season. And I’m not holding my breath waiting for the next time James Shields goes through a stretch of retiring 16 of 18 batters without allowing a base hit in that span. But it’s the only game in which we have to judge, and for one game, the White Sox were both victorious and fun as hell.

2. Just as we overreact to the good, we overreact to the bad, and Shields getting tagged with four runs before recording an out zapped the Opening Day excitement almost immediately, as we were quickly hit with the harsh realization that, yes, baseball is back, but the struggles that have made Shields a shell of the pitcher he once was were still there.

Shields bounced back, as I mentioned, but he did not get out of the final five innings unscathed without a bit of luck. He generated just four swinging strikes all afternoon and zero strikeouts. In fact, White Sox pitching didn’t record its first strikeout until Luis Avilan got Jorge Soler swinging in the eighth inning. Still, after that first inning, the Royals didn’t generate much hard contact. They put seven balls in play with an exit velocity of 100 mph or more, according to Statcast, and five of those came during the first inning.

Shields is going to be walking a tight rope between competence and combustion all season long. Getting through 6 innings was a coup for the White Sox considering the first inning, but one would imagine the batted ball luck and run support won’t always be there.

3. The five combined homers by Davidson and Anderson were the obvious highlights in the 14-run explosion. Davidson’s power isn’t surprising, but a strong start to the season would be a boost for a player who is undoubtedly trying to prove he belongs on a major league roster. Davidson could hit 40 home runs this year, as Paul Konerko has said, but for someone who won’t provide much if any value defensively, the key for him will be evolving his skills beyond that prodigious power. We’re talking, after all, about a player who was a net negative across the board last season despite 26 home runs in 443 plate appearances.

Davidson had two plate appearances Thursday in which he didn’t leave the yard. In his first at-bat, he worked the count full (good) before swinging at two pitches that would’ve been ball four (bad), ultimately flying out to right field. In the other, he watched six straight pitches and drew a walk. Having at-bats like that, to go along with the power, will go a long way for a player whose 4.3 percent walk rate would’ve ranked in the bottom 10 in the league last season if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.

4. Speaking of walks, Anderson took one as well in one of his three plate appearances where he failed to dinger. Even more than Davidson, the base on balls is noteworthy for a player who walked just 2.1 percent of the time last season, dead last in the majors. Anderson didn’t draw his first walk last season until the ninth game of the season and drew just 13 total in 606 plate appearances.

Unlike Davidson, success for Anderson isn’t wholly dependent on the 24-year-old turning into a more patient hitter. His two homers Thursday were a good sign, as him living up to his power potential combined with his speed and hopefully improved defense at a key position (he was initially charged with an error on a tough play in the first inning but it was later turned to a hit) would make him a valuable player even if he always hovers near the bottom of the league in walk rate.

5. The White Sox drew seven walks Thursday, including two each from Nicky Delmonico and Adam Engel, the latter of whom added two hits on the day. Those two, along with Davidson and Yolmer Sanchez, are the White Sox biggest question marks from a positional standpoint this year, so a good start (I know, it’s one game) is good to see.

But in general, the White Sox taking walks is a welcome sight. They were 28th in walk rate a year ago, ranking slightly ahead of Detroit and Baltimore in that department. Danny Duffy and the Royals’ bevy of anonymous relievers isn’t exactly the stiffest competition, but the White Sox showing more patience as a whole — not just Davidson and Anderson — would be considered a big step forward for a team still ripe with developing young players.

Lead Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Both players were removed from the game. Saladino was diagnosed with a mild concussion and will enter MLB’s concussion protocol, meaning he won’t play again for at least seven days. Delmonico suffered a left shoulder subluxation. Rick Renteria said after the game that both players are day-to-day.

While it appears Saladino and Delmonico (hopefully) escaped serious injury, the list of injured White Sox has grown to a concerning level during camp. Jake Burger’s torn Achilles’ has already cost him his first full season as a professional, Luis Robert’s thumb injury is expected to cost him 10 weeks, Micker Adolfo’s elbow injury is going to limit him to DH, and Eloy Jimenez, Alec Hansen, Jeanmar Gomez, Gregory Infante, and the recently released Willy Garcia have all dealt with minor injuries over the last few weeks.

2. While Saladino’s injury is unrelated to the back injury that plagued him throughout 2017, it’s nonetheless unfortunate as the utility player has looked healthy and effective thus far this spring. A healthy Saladino would be a big boost for the White Sox depth, especially when you consider the uncertainty of Yolmer Sanchez as an everyday third baseman. And at 28 and coming off a lost season, his opportunities to prove himself as someone worth rostering as the White Sox next contention cycle opens are dwindling. Concussions are both scary and impossible to predict, but hopefully he can return sooner than later and this winds up a minor blip in his attempted return to productivity.

For Delmonico, any sort of long-term injury would represent a setback to a player who you wouldn’t even fathom to be in this position one year ago. But it also serves as an indicator at the precarious depth in the White Sox outfield. An injury to Delmonico would presumably elevate Ryan Cordell — already returning from his own injury last season — on the depth chart and also mean more playing time for Leury Garcia. Beyond them there’s … Daniel Palka?

Delmonico’s injury, as noted, appears minor, so hopefully he’s back out there relatively soon. And as far as the outfield depth goes, well…

3. Eloy Jimenez returned from the sore knee that sidelined him for two weeks and in four plate appearances in the last two games, has hit two home runs, a triple, and walked.

.@Lamantha21 showing off that opposite-field! #SoxSpringTrainingpic.twitter.com/QaPqFkUqCO

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) March 11, 2018

I’ve written a few times about how, at the very least, spring training is more fun when the exciting young players do well, but it’s not unfathomable that Jimenez torches Triple-A upon the season opening and finds himself in Chicago sooner than expected. At the very least, it’s nice to see him healthy and performing at a level that makes him one of the top prospects in baseball.

4. Speaking of young players performing well, Lucas Giolito looked downright dominant during his Saturday start against the Cubs, striking out eight over four innings and flashing the nasty curveball that scouts have long drooled over.

.@LGio27 is looking sharp early in Mesa! pic.twitter.com/jWBHH0BB9F

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) March 10, 2018

On the latest episode of The Catbird Speaks, Nick and I discussed the appeal of post-hype prospects. Giolito qualifies in that you don’t read his name on top prospect lists anymore, and it’s easy to forget how much potential he has while dreaming on the hype of Michael Kopech, Alec Hansen, and Dylan Cease. But showing consistent velocity (he reportedly sat 93-95 throughout Saturday’s start) to go along with that curveball will go a long way in him developing into the front-line starter the White Sox hope he can be.

5. Carson Fulmer had another inconsistent start on Friday against the Padres, and while he entered the spring as the presumptive No. 5 starter in the opening day rotation, his struggles coupled with the presence of Hector Santiago make it worth wondering if he’d be better served starting the season in Triple-A.

Fulmer showed flashes of what the White Sox hope he’ll become during a few September starts last season, but the former Top 10 pick has yet to show any semblance of consistency as a starting pitcher, and his performances both in Charlotte last season and this spring leave a lot to be desired. The White Sox will one day need to make a decision on whether or not Fulmer can start in the majors, but there’s no rush. Having other internal options means the White Sox can continue his development in Charlotte, and it’s looking like that might be the best option right now.

You can view the full projections over at Baseball Prospectus, and the work that goes into them always make it worth your while, but let’s dive into some of the more noteworthy projections PECOTA has for the team in 2018.

The Record

PECOTA projects the White Sox will win 73 games in 2018, a reasonable estimation that would represent a six-win jump from a year ago. There’s been a decent amount of “can the White Sox be the surprise team of 2018?” buzz over the last few weeks, and while that’s far from an absurd notion, a modest improvement seems more reasonable.

The Players: Good

The White Sox Team Audit page is worth a gander, and when looking at playing time and statistical projections throughout the roster, it’s easy for certain things to jump out.

Jose Abreu (.289/.348/.504, 3.1 WARP) projects to be the White Sox most valuable player, which is far from surprising. Still, as he enters his early 30s, the fact that regression isn’t expected is a positive sign.

Carlos Rodon (131 IP, 3.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 145 K, 51 BB, 2.3 WARP) is No. 2 to Abreu, which is logical until you factor in the injury concerns. Rodon was on a lot of “breakout star” lists pre-2017, and while the injuries remain a concern entering 2018, when he’s been on the mound, he’s been good, and PECOTA sees that. 131 innings would be double his 2017 total, but still lower than anyone would like. You can fill a many large, leather-bound books with names of pitchers whose downfalls were entirely related to their inability to stay healthy, but with Rodon, the fact remains that when he’s healthy, he’s continued to show the ability to reach his heights as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Nicky Delmonico (.246/.323/.434, 1.6 WARP) is perhaps still graded on a curve based on where he was a year ago (he wasn’t mentioned even once among the several hundred reviewed in the 2017 Baseball Prospectus Annual) and that makes these somewhat modest projections pleasing. Sure, the triple slash doesn’t match up with his surprising 43-game sample a year ago, but those numbers are more than acceptable from a four-corners player picked up off the trash heap.

Tim Anderson (.265/.289/.408, 0.4 WARP) had a dreadful 2017, both on and off the field, and while these projections don’t exactly have you jumping for joy, all three numbers represent a modest jump in his numbers. And, at the very least, PECOTA believes the power is real, which isn’t nothing for a middle infielder.

The Players: Bad

PECOTA is basically the numerical representation of every one of us throughout 2017 in saying “Prove It Again” to Avisail Garcia (.275/.329/.427, 1.6 WARP). The projection for Garcia is a far cry from the .886 OPS and 3.7 WARP he put up a year ago, but it’s easy to see why. The .392 BABIP in 2017 and more than 1,500 below-average plate appearances prior to last season bring plenty of room for pessimism he can keep it up for a second year in a row. Regression is expected, whether or not it will be as much as PECOTA says is to be determined.

Leury Garcia (.248/.292/.374, 0.0 WARP) is a personal favorite of yours truly (as well as my co-EIC Nick Beeps) so while his projecting as nothing more than a replacement-level player is disheartening, if not understandable. Garcia played like an first division starting center fielder for the first half of 2017, but injuries and poor play zapped a lot of that optimism down the stretch. Garcia is versatile enough to be given a chance as a utility player, if not a starter, and like his surname counterpart in right field, he’ll likely get plenty of opportunities to “prove it” again in 2018.

It’s hardly worth mentioning James Shields (189 IP, 5.42 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 159 K, 86 BB, -0.7 WARP) or Miguel Gonzalez (137 IP, 5.39 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 99 K, 53 BB, -0.4 WARP) as their jobs are simply to eat innings between the ones that are going to the interesting long-term pieces. Still, it would be preferable if one or both is competent enough to be able to run out there every fifth day.

Oh yeah, the young guys!

Yoan Moncada (.233/.330/.410, 2.1 WARP)
Lucas Giolito (160 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 163 K, 67 BB, 1.3 WARP)
Reynaldo Lopez (108 IP, 4.90 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 109 K, 43 BB, 0.3 WARP)

Players like these three are complicated in how PECOTA views them. All three are somewhat underwhelming but also not altogether disappointing. But it’s important to remember that what they’ve done during their limited time in the majors has at least some impact on how they are viewed. PECOTA doesn’t know that Moncada is a mega-super-ultra stud prospect whose built like a middle linebacker. It knows that Moncada hit only .231 a year ago despite a .325 BABIP. It doesn’t know that Giolito got an OFP of 8 from our prospect team once upon a time, it knows that he flashed good but inconsistent over the last year, and it doesn’t know that, in 2017, Lopez … well, I don’t really know how to describe what we saw from Lopez last year, either.

So while these numbers may be a bit disheartening when you consider that they’re the three Opening Day players most important to the White Sox future, these 50th percentile projections are not necessarily doom-and-gloom, and if they outpace them in 2018, it just spells better things to come in the future.

Lead Photo Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Adam Engel and Nicky Delmonico mirror each other in many ways — long shots (Engel a 19th rounder, Delmonico on his second organization after a trip to rehab) whose performances outshone their pedigree, hoping that their one obvious strength (Engel’s athleticism, Delmonico’s hitting ability) played up enough to mask their clear drawbacks (Engel’s bat, Delmonico’s glove).

In other words, the sorts of guys you don’t mind giving some playing time to in a rebuilding year.

It went pretty well for Delmonico. At a high level, he graded out at about a win above replacement in 166 plate appearances according to the various metrics, which is pretty good! He achieved his .295 tAV in a fairly promising manner, with a 13.9 percent walk rate and 18.7 percent strikeout rate, each on the good side of league average, and a .277 BABIP, while not embarrassing himself in left field (FRAA even has him above average in the field). Even assuming some regression, that start ought to be enough to get him an extended look in left field in 2018. Not bad, for a guy who didn’t make the BP Annual last year.

Looking at the details, though, it was a lot better than “not bad.” It’s a mistake to presume we know players, especially young ones, but it’s hard to be anything other than excited for a guy who beat addiction having one of the best starts to a career of any player in franchise history; it’s even harder given Delmonico’s friendly, telegenic air and clear excitement to be in the bigs. It remains to be seen if he can really stick in left, or if the bat is for real, but he’ll always have this second half. Given where he started, he might have done better relative to expectations than anyone in the organization this year.

It didn’t go so well for Engel, however. The metrics liked the defense less than the eye test did, as he was below average by DRS, UZR, and FRAA (though above average according to MLBAM’s new catch probability/outs above average stats). There wasn’t any dispute about the quality of his offense; a tAV of .199 and a nearly 35 percent K rate tends to remove all doubt.

The all-in-one metrics had him slightly below replacement, and that seems about right. It’s not a guarantee that he’ll improve with the bat, but it’s not unlikely, either — he doesn’t have the profile of a guy who’d be locked in immediately, and you’d expect a BABIP uptick (.247 isn’t sustainable for anyone, much less a burner like Engel). He probably needs to figure it out quickly, or he risks losing a step on defense (a real concern for a guy turning 26 whose carrying tool is his speed), getting overtaken by a different White Sox project, or both.

If he can fend off Leury Garcia et al. for playing time, and more plate appearances help him improve as they have at other levels, and those improvements give him a little boost on offense, then he’s probably a decent, glove-heavy fourth outfielder for the next few years. That’s not a sexy outcome, and he will have to improve to get there, but it’s still pretty good for a 19th rounder. And hey, 336 PA would have been DeWayne Wise’s career high.

Lead Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a long season, but if we can think all the way back to April we find some good memories. The White Sox went 13-10 in April, certainly surpassing the expectations of a tanking team. They still had Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, and a shockingly good bullpen; they also got a strong, surprising contribution from Avisail Garcia. It made sense that a team with such solid lingering veteran talent would find itself a few wins above the norm for a team just entering a rebuilding state.

When that talent was all shipped away at the deadline, yes literally all of it, the team naturally recoiled and had a stretch of games that sent them into first pick territory. The White Sox had lost half their bullpen, their best starter, the starting left fielder, and their starting third baseman. With those players happily playing for contending teams, the team in Chicago was forced to lean on a pitching staff that was not only bad but also tired. Their starters didn’t go deep in games, and their bullpen was sad as well. That was the closest they came to tanking. They had dropped a good portion of their roster, and it was suddenly filled with misfits and guys that were being given a shot merely because they had the space to do so.

Not long after that brief period of tanking, however, reinforcements arrived. Carlos Rodon returned from his injury to sort of look like himself for about a month before being shut down for the season. Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez both made their way from Charlotte with guns blazing, taking the White Sox rotation from abysmal to, at the very least, optimistic. Tim Anderson snapped out of his funk to put together a solid season, and his double play partner, Yoan Moncada, found himself in September after a power and walk happy August. Each of those contributions could have been predicted at the start of the season. We all were confident that Rodon would return and be good. While doubts about Anderson surfaced early in the season, there was a small part of every fan that assumed he would be just fine in the end. As for Giolito, Lopez, and Moncada, they were the prized prospects — anything less than the success they’ve seen would have been a disappointment.

The team also received positive contributions that could not have been predicted. The seasons from Leury Garcia, Avisail Garcia, Nicky Delmonico, and Yolmer Sanchez all came out of nowhere and were relatively productive. Avisail Garcia’s 136 wRC+ over a full season, and Delmonico’s 136 in a much smaller sample had profound impacts on the team. Even 97 and 92 from Leury Garcia and Sanchez respectively was far above preseason expectations. Contributions from the predictable young players, and surprisingly good seasons from others led the White Sox to a uniquely non-tanking season for a rebuilding team.

So here the White Sox sit with a record of 65-93, with the fourth pick in the draft likely, the third within reach, and the first requiring a miracle of sorts. In the eyes of some this marks the season as a failure, but that type of thinking requires assuming the White Sox were ever tanking to begin with. That’s simply not the case. They were too good in the early going while still possessing elite talent, and received too many encouraging performances from young players that could fit into a future White Sox roster.

Marking the 2017 season as a failure for the rebuilding White Sox would be foolish. Moncada, Giolito, and Garcia (x2) all took strong steps forward while Lopez, Rodon, Anderson, and Delmonico all showed that they could be part of the team’s optimistic future. Those strong steps forward by players already at the major league level put the team behind the eight ball regarding draft day, yes. But those strong steps are likely to have a more profound impact on the team’s future than whoever dons a White Sox cap next June.

Lead Photo Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Jace Fry on Tuesday became the eighth member of the 2017 White Sox to make his major league debut. That number doesn’t even include the more heralded young players on the roster, as Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez all saw time in the majors late in 2017. But nonetheless, I thought I’d take a look at those eight newcomers to the league, ranked in order of who I believe has the best chance of having a prolonged big league career.

1. Nicky Delmonico

Major league debut: Aug. 1
First plate appearance: Swinging strikeout against Toronto’s Marcus Stroman
First hit: Same day, single to center field against Toronto’s Ryan Tepera

Delmonico has simultaneously been the most surprising and most successful player to make his major league debut for the White Sox in 2017, hitting .307/.429/.573 with more walks than strikeouts in 91 plate appearances before going on the DL with a wrist injury (he’s expected back soon). Delmonico has been written about on a number of occasions in this space already this season, but it’s worth remembering he wasn’t among the White Sox Top 30 prospects even before the influx of talent, nor was he among the hundreds of players who received comment in last season’s BP Annual. However, he’s proven he can handle the bat at the major league level thus far, albeit in a very small sample size. While he’s limited defensively, whether it’s at an outfield or infield corner, he’s at least earned himself a further look going forward.

2. Aaron Bummer

Major league debut: July 27
First hitter faced: Chicago Cubs’ Anthony Rizzo, who struck out swinging
First strikeout: Rizzo

Bummer is one of the more fascinating players to debut this season. As a 19th round pick just three years ago, the odds of him making the majors, let alone this quickly, were incredibly slim. But he’s shown throughout his minor league career the ability to get left-handed hitters and as a potential LOOGY with three pitches and mid-90s heat, is obviously someone the White Sox see as a part of their future bullpen. He’s struggled through 18 appearances and 13 2/3 innings, with 10 strikeouts, nine walks, and a 6.59 ERA, but that’s to be expected given his inexperience. Like everyone else on this list, Bummer’s debut might not have happened if it weren’t for the state of the White Sox roster. Unlike most, however, his chances of sticking around are a little better than slim.

3. Willy Garcia

Major league debut: April 14
First plate appearance and hit: Same day, double to left-center against Minnesota’s Adalberto Mejia

The White Sox claimed Garcia off waivers from Pittsburgh in the offseason, and narrowly missed out on making the team out of spring training before making his debut just two weeks later when Melky Cabrera went on the paternity list. Garcia performed adequately in just 105 plate appearances, hitting .258/.317/.441 while playing passable if unspectacular defense in the corners. He’d undoubtedly still be getting run if it weren’t for the concussion he suffered in a nasty collision with Moncada, and the odds of him finding a role with a contending tim remain slim (sensing a theme here?) but for a player trying to prove himself for a non-contender, you could do a lot worse than Garcia has shown in 2017.

4. Adam Engel

Major league debut: May 27
First plate appearance: Swinging strikeout against Detroit’s Buck Farmer
First hit: Same day, a single to left field against Detroit’s Shane Greene

Engel actually scored his first career run before ever stepping foot in the batter’s box, appearing as a pinch runner and crossing home plate on a Leury Garcia triple in the first game of that day’s doubleheader. His first start, first plate appearance, and first hit came a few hours later in game two. Engel has gotten a lot of playing time for the rebuilding White Sox, something that might not have been the case on a team trying to compete. This is mostly because of his inability to handle the bat, and he’s proving that point through 246 plate appearances with a .170/.249/.284 line. Engel’s speed and defense plays, and he could very well find a spot on a major league roster beyond 2017 if his bat improves any. But right now, that seems like a long shot.

5. Dylan Covey

Major league debut: April 14
First hitter faced: Minnesota’s Brian Dozier, who singled to right field
First strikeout: Same day, Byron Buxton swinging

Cover was virtually guaranteed to be given every opportunity to stick around given his status as a Rule V pick in the offseason as well as the White Sox lack of pitching depth. A two month stint on the disabled list made it easy for them to avoid sending him back to Oakland despite his struggles. In 46 innings, Covey has a 8.41 ERA with 20 walks, 27 strikeouts, and an even-more-absurd-than-those-numbers 17 home runs allowed. Once the season ends, the White Sox will be able to send Covey to the minors with no repercussions, and he’ll likely continue his development and represent additional pitching depth going forward as a member of the Triple-A Charlotte Knights.

6. Jacob May

Major league debut: April 4
First plate appearance: Strikeout looking against Detroit’s Justin Verlander
First hit: April 22, single to right field against Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco

Remember when I said you could do a lot worse than Garcia if you’re a player trying to prove himself for a non-contender? You should. It was like five lines ago. Anyway, that’s May. The surprising Opening Day addition to the roster started his professional career 0-for-26 in 30 plate appearances before finally getting a hit as a pinch-hitter nearly three weeks later. He was back in Triple-A Charlotte just two weeks later and spent the rest of 2017 there. We spent a lot of ink wondering what the White Sox had in May in the days leading up to the start of the season, and he’s not unlike Engel in that both are outfielders with good speed and the potential to play solid defense. But May’s April (or is it April’s May?) was downright disastrous. If he never sees a major league field for the rest of his career, he’ll still have those two professional hits to remember for the rest of his life. For his sake, I’m hoping he gets another shot somewhere down the road.

7. Jace Fry

Major league debut: Sept. 5
First hitter faced: Cleveland’s Carlos Santana, who singled to left-center field
First strikeout: N/A

Fry, of course, is the most recent of the newcomers, facing three batters in Tuesday’s loss to the Indians. He allowed the single to Santana, got Giovanny Urshela to line out, and walked Lonnie Chisenhall before giving way to Chris Beck, who promptly allowed a three run homer to Yan Gomes. Fry spent the entirety of 2017 before Tuesday with Double-A Birmingham, and has undergone two Tommy John surgeries in the last five years. That fact alone gives him long odds of having any type of lengthy major league career, so his story is the kind that I’m talking about when I say I find joy in any major league debut.

8. Brad Goldberg

Major league debut: June 3
First hitter faced: Detroit’s Justin Upton, who hit a home run
First strikeout: June 22 against Kansas City’s Alex Gordon

The White Sox have seen a lot of bad pitching performances in 2017 but Goldberg’s 11 appearances put together were about as disastrous as they come. In 12 innings of work, Goldberg walked 14 hitters and struck out just three, and allowed 11 earned runs. He exited a game unscored upon in just four of those 11 appearances. 2017 wasn’t all bad for Goldberg, however, as he helped a really fun Team Israel qualify for the World Baseball Classic and tossed two scoreless innings during their run in pool play. There isn’t much positive to say about Goldberg’s major league career thus far, and it’s tough to say whether he’ll get another shot (the White Sox are sure to be bad again in 2018, and he is a reliever, so you never know), but he’ll always have that.

Lead Photo Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports