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	<title>South Side &#187; Opening Day</title>
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		<title>White Sox v. Royals Opening Day: This Time, It&#8217;s Academic</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/29/white-sox-v-royals-opening-day-this-time-its-academic/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/29/white-sox-v-royals-opening-day-this-time-its-academic/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2018 16:02:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Schaefer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[American League Central]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opening Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royals Please Go Away]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoan Moncada]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11718</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For the bulk of the last decade at least one of these two teams had some realistic dream of contention.  To be sure, and to their credit, the Royals haven&#8217;t abandoned all hope in 2018, doing what more teams should have done and adding free agents simply because it made their team better.  Lucas Duda [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the bulk of the last decade at least one of these two teams had some realistic dream of contention.  To be sure, and to their credit, the Royals haven&#8217;t abandoned all hope in 2018, doing what more teams should have done and adding free agents simply because it made their team better.  Lucas Duda isn&#8217;t Joey Votto but he&#8217;s pretty good, so the Royals signed him, even if the chances they crack .500, let alone make the playoffs, are dubious.  Ditto for Jon Jay, and once it was clear nobody else would beat their offer, Mike Moustakas was a no-brainer for Dayton Moore&#8217;s outfit.  But even with their best pitcher, Danny Duffy, on the mound, this Royals team is a husk of what it has been.  Eric Hosmer is in San Diego. Lorenzo Cain is in Milwaukee. Sal Perez fell down a flight of stairs or something.</p>
<p>Perhaps a glance at the Opening Day lineup captures the 2018 Royals Feeling adequately:</p>
<ol>
<li>Jon Jay &#8211; CF: Sure, he&#8217;s a competent major leaguer. I checked, he didn&#8217;t fall off a cliff yet.</li>
<li>Whit Merrifield &#8211; 2B: Hey! He was quite good last year! If that wasn&#8217;t a fluke he&#8217;s a nice piece.</li>
<li>Mike Moustakas &#8211; 3B: Moose doesn&#8217;t really get on base much and I&#8217;m not sure how long he can stay at third, but for 2018 he should continue to be a solid player.</li>
<li>Lucas Duda &#8211; 1B: If the Royals aren&#8217;t up against a lefty, this 3-4 combo is quite menacing.</li>
<li>Cheslor Cuthbert &#8211; DH: Hmm. Uh, well&#8230;he&#8217;s only 25 and was decent in 2016?</li>
<li>Jorge Soler &#8211; RF: I thought Soler was going to be really good once upon a time. Then the next three years happened.</li>
<li>Alex Gordon &#8211; LF: I also thought Gordon would bounce back from a down 2016 but then everything got even worse.</li>
<li>Alcides Escobar &#8211; SS: Is he the worst hitter in baseball?</li>
<li>Drew Butera &#8211; C: He might not be the worst hitter in his own lineup!</li>
</ol>
<p>This group looks like it will struggle on both sides of the ball, particularly if Merrifield regresses and the older players continue to decline.  There isn&#8217;t much help on the way either, unless you count Perez coming back from injury in a few months or Jorge Bonifacio coming back from suspension for the second half of the season.  That said, there&#8217;s plenty here to beat James Shields on any given day.</p>
<p>Even if the White Sox and Royals project to finish a few wins apart from each other, 2018 likely represents an intersection of one team sinking into the ocean while the other ascends.  Yes, 2018 is quite similar to 2017 as a &#8220;Wait And See&#8221; season, with even less likelihood for blockbuster trades in this year&#8217;s edition.  Still, for all of my pretensions of being a cerebral, objective analyst, this is still Opening Day, and this is as exciting a collection of talent on the upswing as the White Sox have had in some time.</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t wait to see what Yoan Moncada does in a second look at the majors.  I can&#8217;t wait to see if Tim Anderson can return to form.  I want to watch Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Carson Fulmer fight to be the core of the next good White Sox rotation.  I am eager to see newcomers like Welington Castillo and even Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan. I look forward to Carlos Rodon and Zack Burdi coming back from injury, and for the arrival of the next wave of prospects, whether elite or not.</p>
<p>We have to wait a little longer, but I want to see Luis Robert play stateside.</p>
<p>Win or lose, this is so, so much more fun than staring out the window at freezing rain, and it should only get better from here — and Moncada is leading off.</p>
<p><em>Lead Image Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Progress Redux: The Chicago White Sox 2018 Season Preview</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/29/progress-redux-the-chicago-white-sox-2018-season-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/29/progress-redux-the-chicago-white-sox-2018-season-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2018 07:12:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opening Day]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11698</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the context of sports, the word &#8220;narrative&#8221; gets thrown out all the time. When the White Sox won the World Series nearly 13 years ago, one of the narratives was that the team embraced the culture created by Ozzie Guillen and believed in each other, and that&#8217;s why they won. Narratives are important storytelling tools, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the context of sports, the word &#8220;narrative&#8221; gets thrown out all the time. When the White Sox won the World Series nearly 13 years ago, one of the narratives was that the team embraced the culture created by Ozzie Guillen and believed in each other, and that&#8217;s why they won.</p>
<p>Narratives are important storytelling tools, but they&#8217;re also often a crutch on which we rely too heavily. What if the White Sox lost the 2005 World Series? What if A.J. Pierzynski struck out in that ALCS at-bat? What if Tony Graffanino didn&#8217;t boot that ground ball? Would those things no longer be true? Did they players not buy into Ozzie&#8217;s culture or not believe in each other after all?</p>
<p>Narratives exist to help make news interesting. Sometimes, it&#8217;s easy. In baseball, particularly so, and the beginning of the season is ripe with them.</p>
<p>The narrative of the 2018 White Sox isn&#8217;t easy, though. And not because the team is uninteresting or bad (though the latter may very well be true), but because it&#8217;s actually too obvious. It&#8217;s the same as it was last year. The White Sox narrative entering the season is about progress.</p>
<p>I went back and re-read <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/03/defining-success-the-2017-chicago-white-sox/" target="_blank">my Opening Day column from last season</a> and it said that exact thing. The best indicator of success for the White Sox was seeing enough progression from the young building blocks that you could envision them being part of the next contender. And guess what? Nothing has changed.</p>
<p>Some of the expectations are different, sure. Yoan Moncada has gone from hyped prospect waiting to debut to someone we&#8217;re eager to see put his skills on display over the course of a full season. Tim Anderson is still oozing with potential, but has now become someone with a lot to prove after a disappointing season. Avisail Garcia went from albatross to maybe reliable long term. Nobody had heard of Nicky Delmonico one year ago and now he&#8217;s an Opening Day starter who the White Sox hope could maybe stick around for a while. Carlos Rodon went from a potential top-of-the-rotation starter who just needs to stay healthy and prove he can put together sustained success to &#8230; you know what? Scratch that last one.</p>
<p>The individual expectations are different, but the goal is the same: At the end of the season, the White Sox need to be a year closer to contention than they are today.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s plenty to focus on, even if the odds say the White Sox playoff drought will reach 10 seasons. The growth of the young players already here: Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez. The progress of Rodon and Anderson, both of whom somehow, given the influx of new prospects, seem like they&#8217;ve been around forever at this point. Watching Delmonico, Yolmer Sanchez, Adam Engel, and Matt Davidson compete to prove they&#8217;re worth rostering at the major league level. Seeing if Garcia can prove 2017 wasn&#8217;t a fluke, and appreciating the professional brilliance of Jose Abreu.</p>
<p>Maybe the narrative changes. Maybe the enthusiasm that seems prevalent throughout the team is more than just pre-season excitement and translates into on-field success. Maybe Moncada is a superstar right now. Maybe Giolito&#8217;s an ace. Maybe Eloy Jimenez comes up sooner than later and is the second coming of Giancarlo Stanton. I read somewhere once that you can&#8217;t predict baseball. So who knows?</p>
<p>The reality is that the White Sox are probably going to lose more games than they win in 2018. There will be stretches where watching on a nightly basis feels like a chore, and where it feels like a 10-year playoff drought may as well me 30 years. Baseball season is long, and it feels even longer sometimes when you root for mediocrity or worse.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not going to tell you wins and losses don&#8217;t matter. If that were the case, why watch? I&#8217;ll never recommend <em>rooting </em>for losses in hopes of a higher draft pick. But as the White Sox likely march toward their sixth consecutive losing season, focus on progress. Maybe we&#8217;ll be scoreboard watching late into the summer one day soon, but for at least one more year, the narrative remains the same.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>South Side Morning 5: Opening Day Defeat</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/05/south-side-morning-5-opening-day-defeat/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/05/south-side-morning-5-opening-day-defeat/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Apr 2017 07:06:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Schaefer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Side Morning 5]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Quintana]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Verlander]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opening Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Anderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade rumors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Saladino]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5954</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After a failed attempt to get a game in on Monday, the White Sox and Tigers kicked off 2017 on Tuesday afternoon.  If they hadn&#8217;t, MLB wouldn&#8217;t have had a single day game on the ledger so it made the day much more enjoyable, even if the game worked out badly, as the White Sox [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After a failed attempt to get a game in on Monday, the White Sox and Tigers kicked off 2017 on Tuesday afternoon.  If they hadn&#8217;t, MLB wouldn&#8217;t have had a single day game on the ledger so it made the day much more enjoyable, even if the game worked out badly, as the White Sox lost to Detroit 6-3.</p>
<p>1. <strong><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51645">Jose Quintana</a> wasn&#8217;t good.</strong>  Specifically, he fell apart in the second inning, allowing a three-run home run to major league debut-ing <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68600">JaCoby Jones</a> and a two-run opposite field shot to <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66955">Nick Castellanos</a>. Both came after jumping ahead 0-2, which reflects a problem he had all day putting hitters away once he got to two strikes — he didn&#8217;t register a strikeout until his 16th batter faced.  He had trouble locating his curveball, which I suspect helps to explain the former.</p>
<p>The worst thing about Quintana&#8217;s bad outing wasn&#8217;t just that it directly caused the White Sox to lose, but it kicked off a horrible conversation about whether or not the White Sox should have desperately rushed to trade him for whatever package they could scrounge up. The idea that a player with his track record&#8217;s value would fluctuate from start to start is asinine. Also, if you&#8217;re afraid that if you keep Quintana for too long you won&#8217;t get as much as you should for him, perhaps the solution isn&#8217;t &#8220;Trading him for less than you should get for him.&#8221;</p>
<p>2. <strong>We were treated to a preview of how the lineup is likely to function for the foreseeable future</strong>.  The top half is pretty good, and three of the top four had multi-hit games. And granted, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45613" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a> is a tough draw, but <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=102503" target="_blank">Tim Anderson</a> went o-for-4 with 3Ks, and even though his rookie year was a success, this was always going to be an issue he&#8217;d have to work through.</p>
<p>There are some pretty massive holes in this lineup, and it&#8217;s going to yield a lot of 1-2-3 innings.</p>
<p>3. <strong>The bullpen looks like it should be a good group</strong>, and today it posted 3.2 shutout innings after Quintana&#8217;s departure.  <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=65830">Jake Petricka </a>and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58563">Zach Putnam</a> both looked largely like their old, effective selves in their first appearances back from long absences due to injury.</p>
<p>If Petricka and Putnam are good again it would make it that much easier to manage the day-to-day should they trade <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57235">David Robertson</a> or <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56519">Nate Jones</a>.</p>
<p>4. <strong>PECOTA projects <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66662">Tyler Saladino</a> for a .305 OBP and it&#8217;s not hard to see why</strong>, given his major league track record.  But he registered two hits and a walk in his debut at the top of the lineup, and he had plus OBP seasons in the minors, so maybe if there&#8217;s more development in there from regular PAs he could beat his projections and wind up at a .330 or .340 level? Please?</p>
<p>5. <strong>It&#8217;s been months of rumors about Quintana to the Astros or Pirates or maybe the Yankees</strong>, and those are all logical trade partners to varying degrees.  Recently, however, the Cardinals have been floated as another suitor for Quintana&#8217;s services.  The estimable Jon Bernhardt <a href="https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/sl-cardinals/cardinals-make-major-push-jose-quintana-soon/">explored the idea further</a>, arguing that it makes a ton of sense for St. Louis and that they should have the pieces to get it done.</p>
<p>Quintana makes a lot of sense for a lot of teams, which — circling back to number one — is another reason why the White Sox can hold out for the right offer.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Catbird Speaks 4.3.17 &#8211; It&#8217;s Opening Day!</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/03/the-catbird-speaks-4-3-17-its-opening-day/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/03/the-catbird-speaks-4-3-17-its-opening-day/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Apr 2017 08:42:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opening Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Catbird Speaks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5951</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Opening Day is here, and Collin Whitchurch, Nick Schaefer, and Frank Firke get together to discuss the 25-man roster, including the decisions the White Sox made regarding certain positions, and what options they have going forward. Later, they talk generally about the season as a whole, predictions for the rest of the American League, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Opening Day is here, and Collin Whitchurch, Nick Schaefer, and Frank Firke get together to discuss the 25-man roster, including the decisions the White Sox made regarding certain positions, and what options they have going forward. Later, they talk generally about the season as a whole, predictions for the rest of the American League, and they each give predictions on how many games the White Sox will win this season.</p>
<p>You can subscribe to this podcast on iTunes or your favorite podcast app by searching for &#8220;The Catbird Speaks.&#8221;</p>
<audio class="wp-audio-shortcode" id="audio-5951-2" preload="none" style="width: 100%; visibility: hidden;" controls="controls"><source type="audio/mpeg" src="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/thecatbirdspeaks/2017/04/03/the-catbird-speaks-4317--its-opening-day.mp3?_=2" /><a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/thecatbirdspeaks/2017/04/03/the-catbird-speaks-4317--its-opening-day.mp3">http://www.blogtalkradio.com/thecatbirdspeaks/2017/04/03/the-catbird-speaks-4317--its-opening-day.mp3</a></audio>
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		<title>Defining Success: The 2017 Chicago White Sox</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/03/defining-success-the-2017-chicago-white-sox/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/03/defining-success-the-2017-chicago-white-sox/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Apr 2017 08:41:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Feature]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opening Day]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5945</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The White Sox are in a situation recent memory is unfamiliar with as they enter the 2017 season devoid of hopes for contention. Because of this, it would be foolish to judge the successes or failures of the team based solely on wins and losses, but instead look at individual growth of certain players, trade [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>The White Sox are in a situation recent memory is unfamiliar with as they enter the 2017 season devoid of hopes for contention. Because of this, it would be foolish to judge the successes or failures of the team based solely on wins and losses, but instead look at individual growth of certain players, trade value increasing or decreasing, or players cementing themselves as having a future with the organization, in order to better gauge how successful this season will be. We’re taking a look at every aspect of the organization, from the prospects, to the players on the 25-man roster to begin the season, to the team as a whole, trying our best to answer the question: How do you define success with this team as currently constructed? Thursday, <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/30/defining-success-the-prospects/" target="_blank">we looked at the prospects</a>, and Friday, <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/31/defining-success-the-white-sox-roster/" target="_blank">we dissected the 25-man roster</a>. Today, we&#8217;ll look at the team as a whole.</em></p>
<p>I&#8217;ve been thinking a lot about this question since Spring Training began (approximately) six months ago.</p>
<p>We&#8217;re entering unchartered waters with the White Sox, at least in terms of recent history. Trading the team&#8217;s two best players, using the world &#8220;rebuild,&#8221; and openly acknowledging the fact that they don&#8217;t have eyes on contention this season is something we&#8217;ve never really experienced.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s almost laughable to think about. The White Sox haven&#8217;t made the playoffs since the year of my 21st birthday. I turned 30 two weeks ago. In the entirety of those 30 years, they&#8217;ve made the playoffs four times, and never in back-to-back seasons. And yet, every season during that period, the end goal was contention, or, at the very least, they didn&#8217;t say publicly that it <em>wasn&#8217;t </em>the end goal.</p>
<p>So what&#8217;s the end goal in 2017?</p>
<p>We&#8217;ve look at how the prospects can find success, as well as what would make the season successful for each player on the 25-man roster. But when October rolls around and the season is over and the White Sox have won 65 or 70 or 75 games, is there any way to view this season as a success? And, more specifically, what&#8217;s going to make the team worth watching for 162 games?</p>
<p>The answer to the first question, in the vaguest of terms, is progress. The individual successes and failures of the players that make up the roster will vary throughout the season, but when it&#8217;s all said and done the White Sox should have a better idea of who has a shot at contributing to the next contender. And the more of those types they are able to identify, the better.</p>
<p>The second question is more difficult on the surface. Watching the losses pile up, day after day as the season drags on, can be deflating. Every James Shields pitch or Avisail Garcia at-bat will be depressing. But, if you&#8217;ll allow me a moment of optimism, guess what? We&#8217;ve seen this all before. And those innings and those ABs are no longer hurting the White Sox playoff chances. Instead, they&#8217;re just filling the void while the building blocks — Tim Anderson, Carlos Rodon, eventually Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez — put in the work that will eventually make them, if all goes as planned, those individual part that make up the next contender.</p>
<p>Success for the White Sox in 2017 will be defined by the evolution we see in those players and others. Some won&#8217;t pan out, some will join them, and some may emerge from unexpected places. But the White Sox have started building something new and unique to this fanbase, and 2017 is the ground floor being built. If by the end of the season that&#8217;s been completed and maybe a couple more stories have been added to the base, that&#8217;d be a pretty solid beginning.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Defining Success: The White Sox Roster</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/31/defining-success-the-white-sox-roster/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/31/defining-success-the-white-sox-roster/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Mar 2017 06:39:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Collin Whitchurch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Feature]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[The White Sox are in a situation recent memory is unfamiliar with as they enter the 2017 season devoid of hopes for contention. Because of this, it would be foolish to judge the successes or failures of the team based solely on wins and losses, but instead look at individual growth of certain players, trade [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>The White Sox are in a situation recent memory is unfamiliar with as they enter the 2017 season devoid of hopes for contention. Because of this, it would be foolish to judge the successes or failures of the team based solely on wins and losses, but instead look at individual growth of certain players, trade value increasing or decreasing, or players cementing themselves as having a future with the organization, in order to better gauge how successful this season will be. We&#8217;re taking a look at every aspect of the organization, from the prospects, to the players on the 25-man roster to begin the season, to the team as a whole, trying our best to answer the question: How do you define success with this team as currently constructed? Thursday, <a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/30/defining-success-the-prospects/" target="_blank">we looked at the prospects</a>, and today, we&#8217;ll look at the White Sox roster as, barring any weekend surprises, we&#8217;re likely to see against the Detroit Tigers on Monday.</em></p>
<p><strong>POSITION PLAYERS</strong></p>
<p><b>Omar Narvaez<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">376 PA, .240/.307/.335, 6 HR, 33 RBI, -1.2 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">When asked last week about what, if anything, the White Sox learned from the Great Catching Failure of 2016, general manager Rick Hahn reiterated that the White Sox do, in fact, care very much about framing and catcher defense and that the ill-fated decision to downgrade in that department from Tyler Flowers to Dioner Navarro and Alex Avila was an attempt to generate more offense. Hahn noted that the White Sox have had success in developing catcher defense, reminding us that when Flowers entered the White Sox system he was considered a bat-first prospect who might have trouble sticking at catcher defensively. This is a fair point, and it’s certainly possible that the Sox bet on their ability to teach both Navarro and Avila how to better frame pitches. But apparently you can’t teach an old dog new tricks … or something. If the White Sox want to better prove their point, Narvaez is about the best guinea pig imaginable. Narvaez graded out at a below-average pitch framer in his limited major league time in 2016 (minus-4.1 FRAA), but he’s still young enough that writing him off in that department might be premature. Catcher is a notoriously thin position across the league, so if Narvaez can remain what he was offensively in 2016 — plenty of walks, little power — and improve his defense, it would be considered a win for the White Sox. <em>- Collin Whitchurch</em></span></p>
<p><b>Geovany Soto<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">193 PA, .223/.289/.384, 6 HR, 23 RBI, -0.1 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The White Sox aren’t asking for much from Soto: give Narvaez some days off, mentor him a bit, and don’t be as terrible as Dioner Navarro. And as long as Soto doesn’t get hurt, those are all pretty easy bars to clear. Anything he adds on offense is just bonus points. <em>-Mark Primiano</em></span></p>
<p><b>Jose Abreu<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">633 PA, .288/.349/.495, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 3.4 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">We’ve seen different calibers of Abreu over his three years in the majors, and while his second half resurgence makes PECOTA’s projection eminently reasonable, there’s still reasonable hope for more. His contact skills and power should still be there, and if he gets a little more luck with his health in 2017, we could see something closer to his 2014 than the past couple of seasons, which would firmly pull him back toward, “Fearsome Beast” instead of “Solidly plus 1B bat.” And as sad as it is to contemplate, it wouldn’t hurt if he boosted his trade value either. And if he’s hitting .310/.360/.550 at the All-Star break instead of the above, he might command something quite interesting (and maybe get to play in the playoffs for someone). <em>-Nick Schaefer</em></span></p>
<p><b>Tyler Saladino<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">300 PA, .257/.305/.391, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 1.3 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">With Brett Lawrie’s release, Saladino went from “supersub waiting for Frazier to get traded” to “starting second baseman hoping Frazier gets traded pretty close to when Moncada comes up so he can be the starting third baseman.” He can certainly handle it defensively, and the question becomes what caliber and shape his offense take. Saladino is no stranger to injury himself, but if he can play 140-plus games while providing league average offense and a plus glove, he is suddenly a legitimate regular and not just a plus utility player, although third would certainly put more pressure on his bat. <em>-Nick Schaefer</em></span></p>
<p><b>Tim Anderson<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">626 PA, .267/.288/.404, 14 HR, 57 RBI, 1.0 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Anderson will very likely be the most interesting player on the Opening Day roster. Of the position players, he’s the most likely to stick around for awhile — as seen by his recent contract extension. With that said, the White Sox don’t need Anderson to blow the league away in 2017. The nice thing about finally breaking down and rebuilding is that there is no longer intense pressure on prospects to rapidly reach their ceiling. Anderson is never going to post strikeout and walk rates like Jose Altuve, but it is one glaring area for improvement. Last year he walked 13 times in 431 plate appearances. A successful season sees him improve that to 30 over a full season while keeping his strikeout rate the same, if not lower. It wouldn’t hurt to see the surprising power from a season ago make a return either. More than anything a successful season for Anderson involves him avoiding a sophomore slump and taking a step forward rather than backward. <em>-Ryan Schultz</em></span></p>
<p><b>Todd Frazier<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">551 PA, .247/.312/.449, 27 HR, 84 RBI, 1.8 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It still feels weird that the White Sox went from a team that was consistently full of mashers to one absolutely lacking in power hitters. The Sox finished 13th in the AL in home runs and 11th in ISO last season, numbers that make it pretty damn hard to put together a half-decent offense. Frazier did his part, putting up a career high 40 home runs, though the rest of his batting stats continued a worrisome decline from their 2014 high. Frazier is in his walk year on a rebuilding team, so a successful season would involve putting up a strong enough first half (which would be in line with his career splits of .833 vs .721 OPS per half) to bring back a useful player or two for the future. <em>-Mark Primiano</em></span></p>
<p><b>Melky Cabrera<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">540 PA, .288/.332/.422, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 1.5 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In his last year of his contract, a good season for Cabrera is one in which he stays healthy, strokes a couple clutch hits for the White Sox, entertains us in the outfield, and plays well for a contender after he gets shipped out in July for a couple B prospects. More concisely: “90 percent of 2016 Carlos Beltran’s production, but with funnier facial expressions and more pratfalls.” (Beltran had a .293 tAV when he was traded last year, and Cabrera’s 90th percentile tAV per PECOTA is .294) <em>-Frank Firke</em></span></p>
<p><b>Avisail Garcia<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">432 PA, .263/.311/.404, 12 HR, 49 RBI, 0.5 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I honestly have no clue what would indicate a successful season for Garcia at this point. Hitting 20 home runs while being passable in the outfield would certainly be successful, but that doesn’t seem entirely plausible. For White Sox fans, the Avisail Garcia experiences has been nothing but disappointment. However, now that the focus has shifted from achieving the greatest possible outcome from fill-in players in the interest of competing for a playoff position to simply rebuilding for the future, the picture changes a bit. The White Sox are no longer being crippled by allowing Garcia to play despite his troubles at the plate and in the field. They’re free to allow him to play and perhaps find the player they saw when they chose him over Jose Iglesias. On the flip side, perhaps a truly horrible season from Garcia is the most successful in that it sees the White Sox finally give up on him. <em>-Ryan Schultz</em></span></p>
<p><b>Jacob May<br />
PECOTA projections: </b>206 PA, .233/.275/.336, 3 HR, 19 RBI, -0.6 WARP</p>
<p>May will be one of the most watched players heading north with the big club after his surprising ascension to the Opening Day roster. But even after his impressive spring both offensively and defensively, the odds will be stacked against May given his season-long struggles with the bat in 2016 during his first season at Triple-A. Still, the White Sox have shown enough faith in him to give an opportunity that probably wouldn&#8217;t be afforded him during a year with contention in mind, and if he&#8217;s able to hold down a roster spot all season long, that&#8217;d be a major accomplishment. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><b>Matt Davidson<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b>396 PA, .208/.283/.372, 17 HR, 59 RBI, -0.7 WARP</p>
<p>After so many setbacks, success for Davidson is probably qualifying for an MLB pension, but that happens if he makes it through April on the active roster. If we’re a little more ambitious, it’s staying on the roster all year. From there, two paths: one with a stretch goal of replacement level (which PECOTA says is a top quartile outcome) and a best case scenario of an average bat, decent reps at third base, and a spot on someone’s roster next year. The other path’s best outcome? Well, Dayan Viciedo posted an .838 OPS in Japan last year. <em>-Frank Firke</em></p>
<p><strong>Cody Asche<br />
PECOTA projections: </strong>101 PA, .247/.305/.410, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 0.1 WARP</p>
<p>The White Sox have plenty of players who will get an opportunity to prove they belong on a major league roster in 2017. While there&#8217;s still a bit of an unknown element in the likes of Narvaez, Davidson, or May, Asche doesn&#8217;t quite fit that mold. With nearly 1,300 plate appearances to his credit, Asche falls more in a category with Avisail Garcia as someone who has experienced enough failure during his career to where hope of success is mostly gone. In fact, in about 250 fewer career plate appearances than Garcia, Asche has a lower OPS+. Anything remotely positive he&#8217;s able to provide would be considered a shocking success. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><b>Leury Garcia<br />
PECOTA projections: </b>94 PA, .246/.286/.359, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 0.0 WARP</p>
<p>More than half of Garcia&#8217;s 331 career plate appearances came during the 2014 season, when he hit a paltry .166/.192/.207 with a ridiculous 15 OPS+, while also playing every position on the field except first base and catcher. But after being considered a guy with a solid glove at most spots on the field but a terrible bat for most of his minor league career, he&#8217;s been solid at the plate in each of his previous two seasons at Triple-A Charlotte. Garcia&#8217;s career probably won&#8217;t amount to much, but it&#8217;s not impossible that he carves out a nice career as a utility guy given his positional versatility if he&#8217;s able to hold his own with the bat. The odds are still against that happening, but he&#8217;s likely to get the best opportunity of his career to prove it with this year&#8217;s team. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><strong>Yolmer Sanchez<br />
PECOTA projections: </strong>186 PA, .246/.286/.371, 4 HR, 18 RBI, -0.1 WARP</p>
<p>Sanchez has been in the White Sox system long enough that it&#8217;s hard to believe he&#8217;s still just 24, younger than Leury Garcia, Tyler Saladino, and Jacob May. When the White Sox signed Sanchez, they were just a year removed from their last playoff appearance! Still, while Sanchez&#8217; opportunities have and will continue to come from the uncertainty of the White Sox second base situation (until, ya know, Yoan Moncada comes up), his ceiling is almost certainly that of a backup infielder. Proving that he can stick around to provide even that, and put an end to his ping-ponging between Chicago and Charlotte, would be a big step for Sanchez. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><b>PITCHERS</b></p>
<p><b>Jose Quintana<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">189 IP, 12-11, 3.95 ERA, 181 K, 50 BB, 2.4 WARP</span></p>
<p>Quintana received a fifth-place Cy Young vote last season, something simultaneously irrelevant and so very meaningful. It was meaningful solely because it showed that Quintana, who has put together four consecutive seasons that prove he&#8217;s an established, above-average starter, is finally starting to get some of the recognition that goes with that kind of performance. The spotlight will shine even brighter on Quintana this season as the bonafide No. 1 starter on this White Sox team. Quintana is easy to root for, and while a realistic expectation from the White Sox perspective includes him shoving for the first half and getting dealt in July for a plethora of prospects from a desperate contender, the personal expectation includes him continuing to ascend to the point where it&#8217;s no longer noteworthy when he&#8217;s rightfully mentioned in the same breathe as the top pitchers in the American League, regardless of what team&#8217;s uniform he&#8217;s wearing by the end of the season. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><b>Carlos Rodon<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">177 IP, 11-11, 3.92 ERA, 187 K, 64 BB, 2.3 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This time last week a successful season would be a breakout — 180-plus innings, 200 strikeouts, an ERA below 3.40. Even with the good news that his MRIs came up clean and a diagnosis of bursitis, perhaps health and further incremental progress should be sufficient for White Sox fans. After all, he doesn’t have to hit his ceiling this year. He just needs to keep getting closer to that point. </span>Or he could see a jump in his fastball command and feel for his change and morph into an ace now. That is also welcome. <em>-Nick Schaefer</em></p>
<p><b>Miguel Gonzalez<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">148 IP, 8-11, 4.63 ERA, 121 K, 49 BB, 0.6 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">After the release of John Danks and the downward spiraling fiasco that was Mat Latos, the White Sox rotation went through it’s growing pains at the back end in 2016. But that was before Gonzalez was officially named to the starting rotation. The Orioles quickly released Gonzalez after his ERA and peripherals shot up to around the 5 mark in 2015, though Gonzalez had no significant or apparent injury. When Gonzalez joined the White Sox rotation he was just the unexpected surprise that the a weary team needed, tossing 135 innings (his inning total would have been higher if not for a groin injury that sidelined him for a handful of starts) to end the season with a very balanced 3.73 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and 3.99 DRA. </span>Gonzalez’s success could have been a fluke, and it may still come in waves, but Gonzalez managed to keep his ground ball numbers steady at 40 percent, and lowered his HR/FB rate to just 6.8 percent, down from 15 percent in 2015. Locating his pitches will be a key factor for Gonzalez, who went from 27 walks in the first half of 2016 to just 8 in the second half. Starting in the two spot until Carlos Rodon is healthy may not be the prettiest sight for the White Sox, but flipping a pitcher such a Gonzalez to the third starter spot is a whole different animal of expectation, and could be a quite comfortable roll for Gonzalez in 2017. <em>-Cat Garcia</em></p>
<p><b>Derek Holland<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">101 IP, 5-7, 4.72 ERA, 79 K, 32 BB, 0.3 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Another White Sox-esque acquisition that is more of reclamation project than anything after eight seasons in Texas, Holland leaves the White Sox to salvage the remains of a now-injury riddled starter who last threw 200 innings back in 2013. However, if anyone can help maintain the health of a pitcher such as Holland, pitching coach Don Cooper is the man for the task. PECOTA shows Holland nearly replicating his 2016 with Texas this year, a performance that caused the Rangers to decline Holland’s $11 million contract option in favor of a of $1.5 million buyout, leaving Holland free to the open market for the first time in his career. With Holland likely bumping to the fourth spot once the White Sox rotation gets settled in, repeating his 2016 wouldn’t be utterly disastrous for a fourth starter on a one-year deal with a team not looking to contend. One concern with a Holland-type is that should he only start around 100 innings as PECOTA predicts, he defeats the purpose of absorbing the lack of sharp stuff for an inning eater type who is able to spare your bullpen of a few unnecessary outings. <em>-Cat Garcia</em></span></p>
<p><b>James Shields<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">174 IP, 9-12, 5.04 ERA, 154 K, 68 BB, -0.2 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Shields had a 6.77 ERA on the South Side last year, but he was unlucky — if you use BP’s all-inclusive DRA metric, it should’ve been more like 6.73. Still, in 2015 he was worth 1.8 WARP for the Padres. That’s about his upper bound (90th percentile outcome in PECOTA is 2.0 WARP), and so the best case scenario is probably that he pitches that well, moves up the active complete games leaderboard (he’s tied for fifth, and if everything breaks right he can get as high as third), and gets some nice buzz for mentoring some of the White Sox prospects. More realistically, Shields gave up two homers per 9 last year (2.4 as a White Sox) and failed to clear 200 IP over a full season for the first time. If he can clear the latter benchmark and cut the homers by 25 percent or so, the White Sox will have gotten what they need out of him. <em>-Frank Firke</em></span></p>
<p><b>David Robertson<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">61 IP, 3.48 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 74 K, 0.9 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">A return to form. Robertson’s 2016 season was a lost year due to trying to pitch through a knee injury. The results? His lowest K/9 since 2013 and his highest BB/9 since 2011. With him being fully healthy once more, one would expect (hope?) those numbers correct themselves back towards where they belong. If they do, that could go a long way towards helping the rebuild effort because there’s never a shortage of contending teams looking for bullpen help come July. <em>-Mark Primiano</em></span></p>
<p><b>Nate Jones<br />
</b><b>PECOTA projections: </b><span style="font-weight: 400">64 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 73 K, 1.3 WARP</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">A successful season for Jones likely sees him with another team by August 1. Despite David Robertson having that elusive title of closer, Jones appears to be the more valuable asset. A solid first half of the season where he stays healthy and avoids bad outings could be more than enough to fetch some solid prospects in a trade, especially given the development of the reliever market that we’ve seen over the past couple seasons. If Jones does stick around, for whatever reason, a successful season is essentially just one where he remains healthy. So far he’s been a Tommy John success story, but that can change at the drop of a hat. <em>-Ryan Schultz</em></span></p>
<p><b>Dan Jennings, Zach Putnam, Jake Petricka, Anthony Swarzak, Dylan Covey, Michael Ynoa</b></p>
<p>I mean no disrespect to these six pitchers by lumping them all together at the end, but the fact of the matter is we&#8217;re at 3,000 words and relievers are so unpredictable that I could probably have put a giant shrug emoji in this space. Success for this group is that they all stay healthy and effective enough to eat innings and maybe one or two of them find enough success to fetch something of value at the trade deadline. Maybe one of them emerges into something more. In the cases of Jennings, Putnam, and Petricka, you already have established major league relievers with a good chance of remaining somewhat valuable. For the other three, sticking around for the season would be a profound success. <em>-Collin Whitchurch</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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