So starting from there, the projected standings are never going to be perfect.  Then throw us imperfect humans into the mix, as the player projections have to be weighted by how much playing time they’re going to get — a difficult task on the most stable of rosters, and the White Sox roster is anything but stable.

Jose Abreu is a safe bet for ~600+ PAs in some distribution between first base and DH, ditto Avisail Garcia at right field or DH — unless one or both are traded mid-season. Welington Castillo will probably get most of the reps at catcher. Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson should get the majority of the time in the middle infield.

After that it gets really murky really quickly. Presumably, Nicky Delmonico will get first crack at left field.  How long of a crack that is depends on how well he does, but also how quickly Eloy Jimenez comes, if that happens in 2018 at all.  Then again, maybe Ryan Cordell winds up impressing and soaking up more of left field than we’d think sitting here today.

In center field, I’d have to think Charlie Tilson would get first crack at it if he’s healthy, but who knows if he’s healthy? Adam Engel might be next up, but then, if he can’t get his OPS above .600 I’m not sure how much run he gets.  Straight up, I suspect Leury Garcia could outperform them both, but the White Sox probably want to deploy him judiciously among the seven positions he can cover and we had to try to guess how much of that would go where.  What if Tito Polo kills Double-A and Tilson is hurt and Engel is terrible?

Oh and third base. You know, where Yolmer Sanchez might play regularly. Or, Davidson splits time with him. Cordell can play third, too. Is this where Leury gets extra PAs too? Tyler Saladino looked like a pretty dynamite third baseman once upon a time. What of him?

And that’s just the position player side.  The permutations on the pitching side are even more ridiculous, given there’s simply a huge pile of innings and oh so many pitchers to throw at them.  And players also get hurt.

As a result, even if PECOTA were bang on perfect, the standings still wouldn’t be, because we, sitting here in February, tried to guess how the six month season would play out.

But, y’know. We tried.

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Like last year, I’ve picked out some of my favorite White Sox player comparisons — fun, unusual, exciting — as we continue to count down the days until pitchers and catchers report.

Jose Abreu

Noteworthy comparisons: 2007 Derrek Lee, 1996 Rafael Palmeiro

2007 Lee was two years removed from being “Derrek Lee: World-Destroying MVP Candidate” but he was still very good, going .317/.400/.513 with 22 home runs. Palmeiro’s ’96 season was the second of nine straight seasons in which he hit 30 home runs or more and he finished sixth in AL MVP voting. Sluggers on the wrong side of 30 don’t have a great history of continued strong performance — it’s sometimes feels like we’re all sitting here waiting for Abreu to stop being Abreu — so while these performances may be outliers (performance-enhancement issues aside in the latter’s case), the possibility that Abreu continues to produce at an above-average rate in his age-31 season remains strong.

Yolmer Sanchez

Noteworthy comparisons: 2015 D.J. LeMahieu, 2007 Brandon Phillips

After a surprisingly productive 2017, it’s fun to dream of Sanchez suddenly morphing into an All-Star caliber infield, even if it’s still incredibly farfetched. In 2015, LeMahieu did just that, as after a few years of being an average-ish middle infielder (although he did win a Gold Glove the year prior), LeMahieu started to supplement his superb defense with enough offense to warrant an All-Star berth. Like LeMahieu, Sanchez’s best position is probably second base, but with the presence of Yoan Moncada, Sanchez will likely see most of his playing time in 2018 at third base, which makes such an ascent more unlikely. Phillips’ inclusion is more perplexing. Like LeMahieu, his 2007 season was a breakout campaign in his second full season in the majors, but I don’t exactly see 30-homer potential out of Sanchez’s bat.

Avisail Garcia

Noteworthy comparisons: 2010 Hunter Pence, 2008 Alex Rios

PECOTA expects regression from Garcia, which isn’t surprising considering how out-of-nowhere his 2017 season was. But putting up numbers comparable to Pence’s 2010 season or Rios’ 2008 season wouldn’t be regressive at all (each put up 5.0 WARP seasons). From a rate stats perspective, regression to the form of an OPS in the high .700s would be reasonable, but both Pence and Rios were above-average defenders in their respective seasons, according to FRAA. That kind of improvement from Garcia seems unthinkable, but I guess so did him having a .330 batting average one year ago.

Carlos Rodon

Noteworthy comparisons: 2015 Madison Bumgarner, 2011 Yovani Gallardo, 2011 Johnny Cueto, 1986 Fernando Valenzuela

Rodon’s entire comparable players list is a laundry list of wonder. A year ago, PECOTA compared Rodon to Bumgarner’s 2014 season in which he posted both his highest K/9 and lowest BB/9 (at the time) of his career. In 2015, he was even better. In 2011, Cueto was just entering his peak, while Gallardo had his last above-average season. Then there’s Valenzuela, five years removed from peak “Fernando-mania” but still good enough to set a career high in strikeouts, throwing 269 innings with an absurd 20 complete games. That is totally attainable for Rodon, right? There are some less-fun comps on Rodon’s list (2011 Joba Chamberlain and Phill Hughes, anyone?) but it’s by far my favorite of the bunch.

James Shields

Noteworthy comparisons: 2011 Kevin Millwood, 2015 John Lackey, 2008 Esteban Loaiza

I had to throw one not-so-fun guy on here, right? 2011 was the second-to-last year of Millwood’s career. He threw 54 innings for the Rockies and was out of baseball a year later. Likewise, 2008 was the last year of Loaiza’s career. He threw a grand total of 27 innings (including three with the White Sox) and then it was time for him to go. 2015 Lackey was actually pretty good! He threw 218 innings for the Cardinals (his highest total since 2007) and was worth 2.2 WARP. That would be a dream for Shields.

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You can view the full projections over at Baseball Prospectus, and the work that goes into them always make it worth your while, but let’s dive into some of the more noteworthy projections PECOTA has for the team in 2018.

The Record

PECOTA projects the White Sox will win 73 games in 2018, a reasonable estimation that would represent a six-win jump from a year ago. There’s been a decent amount of “can the White Sox be the surprise team of 2018?” buzz over the last few weeks, and while that’s far from an absurd notion, a modest improvement seems more reasonable.

The Players: Good

The White Sox Team Audit page is worth a gander, and when looking at playing time and statistical projections throughout the roster, it’s easy for certain things to jump out.

Jose Abreu (.289/.348/.504, 3.1 WARP) projects to be the White Sox most valuable player, which is far from surprising. Still, as he enters his early 30s, the fact that regression isn’t expected is a positive sign.

Carlos Rodon (131 IP, 3.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 145 K, 51 BB, 2.3 WARP) is No. 2 to Abreu, which is logical until you factor in the injury concerns. Rodon was on a lot of “breakout star” lists pre-2017, and while the injuries remain a concern entering 2018, when he’s been on the mound, he’s been good, and PECOTA sees that. 131 innings would be double his 2017 total, but still lower than anyone would like. You can fill a many large, leather-bound books with names of pitchers whose downfalls were entirely related to their inability to stay healthy, but with Rodon, the fact remains that when he’s healthy, he’s continued to show the ability to reach his heights as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Nicky Delmonico (.246/.323/.434, 1.6 WARP) is perhaps still graded on a curve based on where he was a year ago (he wasn’t mentioned even once among the several hundred reviewed in the 2017 Baseball Prospectus Annual) and that makes these somewhat modest projections pleasing. Sure, the triple slash doesn’t match up with his surprising 43-game sample a year ago, but those numbers are more than acceptable from a four-corners player picked up off the trash heap.

Tim Anderson (.265/.289/.408, 0.4 WARP) had a dreadful 2017, both on and off the field, and while these projections don’t exactly have you jumping for joy, all three numbers represent a modest jump in his numbers. And, at the very least, PECOTA believes the power is real, which isn’t nothing for a middle infielder.

The Players: Bad

PECOTA is basically the numerical representation of every one of us throughout 2017 in saying “Prove It Again” to Avisail Garcia (.275/.329/.427, 1.6 WARP). The projection for Garcia is a far cry from the .886 OPS and 3.7 WARP he put up a year ago, but it’s easy to see why. The .392 BABIP in 2017 and more than 1,500 below-average plate appearances prior to last season bring plenty of room for pessimism he can keep it up for a second year in a row. Regression is expected, whether or not it will be as much as PECOTA says is to be determined.

Leury Garcia (.248/.292/.374, 0.0 WARP) is a personal favorite of yours truly (as well as my co-EIC Nick Beeps) so while his projecting as nothing more than a replacement-level player is disheartening, if not understandable. Garcia played like an first division starting center fielder for the first half of 2017, but injuries and poor play zapped a lot of that optimism down the stretch. Garcia is versatile enough to be given a chance as a utility player, if not a starter, and like his surname counterpart in right field, he’ll likely get plenty of opportunities to “prove it” again in 2018.

It’s hardly worth mentioning James Shields (189 IP, 5.42 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 159 K, 86 BB, -0.7 WARP) or Miguel Gonzalez (137 IP, 5.39 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 99 K, 53 BB, -0.4 WARP) as their jobs are simply to eat innings between the ones that are going to the interesting long-term pieces. Still, it would be preferable if one or both is competent enough to be able to run out there every fifth day.

Oh yeah, the young guys!

Yoan Moncada (.233/.330/.410, 2.1 WARP)
Lucas Giolito (160 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 163 K, 67 BB, 1.3 WARP)
Reynaldo Lopez (108 IP, 4.90 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 109 K, 43 BB, 0.3 WARP)

Players like these three are complicated in how PECOTA views them. All three are somewhat underwhelming but also not altogether disappointing. But it’s important to remember that what they’ve done during their limited time in the majors has at least some impact on how they are viewed. PECOTA doesn’t know that Moncada is a mega-super-ultra stud prospect whose built like a middle linebacker. It knows that Moncada hit only .231 a year ago despite a .325 BABIP. It doesn’t know that Giolito got an OFP of 8 from our prospect team once upon a time, it knows that he flashed good but inconsistent over the last year, and it doesn’t know that, in 2017, Lopez … well, I don’t really know how to describe what we saw from Lopez last year, either.

So while these numbers may be a bit disheartening when you consider that they’re the three Opening Day players most important to the White Sox future, these 50th percentile projections are not necessarily doom-and-gloom, and if they outpace them in 2018, it just spells better things to come in the future.

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Preseason projections are the perfect meal to fill that void, as they provide our first glimpse into how the 2017 is expected, at least by one model, to play out.

In regards to the AL Central and, particularly, the White Sox, this season’s projections were not expected to be, nor were they revelatory. The Indians will be good and the rest of the division will be a muddled mess of mediocrity.

You can split hairs between the Twins, Tigers, White Sox, and Royals if you want, but it’s no secret that, more than any other division in the American League, there’s a clear line of separation between the favorite and the rest.

What’s particularly interesting about the White Sox win total is that it immediately leads to a few different lines of thought:

1. The White Sox aren’t done tearing things down yet. With a bonafide front-end starter in Jose Quintana still in the mix, as well as useful veterans like Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, Brett Lawrie, Miguel Gonzalez, David Robertson, and Nate Jones, they can get a whole helluva lot worse between now and the end of the season (they’re only projected to win two fewer games this season than last), something PECOTA obviously can’t predict.
2. The White Sox aren’t much worse off than a lot of other teams. It’s easy to view the White Sox through a microscope. You can easily pick out the team’s flaws, whether it’s the outfielders, catcher, or backend of the rotation, because you follow the team on a daily basis. But the rest of the division has different flaws of varying degrees, whether it be Detroit’s aging core and stars-and-scrubs approach, Minnesota’s youth and train wreck of a pitching staff, or Kansas City’s, well, PECOTA and the Royals have a history. You can nit pick between the four teams, questioning which team’s flaws are more glaring or more detrimental, but it seems clear that from, 1-through-25, there’s not a whole lot separating these teams.
3. The White Sox really screwed up. It’s been shouted from the rooftops in this little corner of the internet over and over again, our face is red and our eyes are bugging out of our heads. But the White Sox flat-out blew it by not successfully building around the cheap, talented core they had the last couple of seasons. It will be fun to follow and dream on the prospects the White Sox have and will acquire over the next few years, but given the division’s dearth of contenders, there wasn’t too much standing in their way on the path to contention.

PECOTA has been within 2-3 wins of projecting the White Sox win total in each of the last three seasons, but the main difference between those seasons and 2017 is that there’s no expectation of them half-assing an attempt at contention this time around. So while these projections are beneficial in setting expectations in most cases, the expectation here for the White Sox is that it’s likely to get a whole lot worse before long.

Lead Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

It’s no secret that the White Sox aren’t expected to contend this season, but individual player projections are still important. For players like Tim Anderson and Carlos Rodon, we get a first look at how two young, important players for the team’s future are expected to perform in another key development year. For certain veterans, taking a leap or maintaining solid numbers will factor into whether the Sox will be able to move them and continue the rebuilding process, and if so, what they’d get in return.

The Young Guys

After Tim Anderson adjusted to major-league pitching much quicker than many expected a year ago, it would be easy to look at his PECOTA projections and feel disheartened. In 2016, Anderson hit .283/.306/.432 and posted a 1.3 WARP in 431 plate appearances, and while he may have been aided a bit by a .375 BABiP (his TAv was .248), the fact that PECOTA expects a similar season in his first full go-around of the majors can be taken as a positive as it means the system didn’t see much flukiness in his 2016 performance.

Anderson impressed after a call-up that reeked of desperation by the White Sox in a last-ditch effort at contention. While many thought he’d be better served spending all of ’16 in Triple-A, the promotion was well deserved. Hoping for more exciting projections is understandable, but keep in mind with Anderson (and everyone else) that this is their median expectation, and projections are conservative by nature. Whether Anderson continues to progress or the B/KK ratio hinders his progress, this seems a reasonable forecast.

Carlos Rodon showed signs of progress in 2016 but the White Sox are hopeful his best is yet to come. He cut down his walks considerably (2.9 BB/9 compared to 4.6 as a rookie) and saw a slight uptick in strikeouts (9.2 K/9 up from 9.0). He was obviously hampered by the White Sox receiving issues, which is at least part of the reason for his ERA jumping up to 4.04, and PECOTA expects continued improvement out of Rodon in his age-24 season, with his K/9 jumping again to 9.9, and both his ERA (3.99) and DRA (4.33) taking a dip. This adds up to a WAR increase up to 1.9, even with the BB/9 jumping back up slightly to 3.2.

One of my favorite parts of PECOTA projections is player comps, and Rodon’s top seasonal comparison is 2014 Madison Bumgarner. Expecting that type of season is quite bullish, but last year’s cFIP of 90 foresaw improvements, and PECOTA seems to agree.

The Trade Targets

PECOTA has Jose Quintana as the 16th best starting pitcher in the majors by WARP (tied with Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish). His strikeout and walk rates aren’t expected to change in any notable way, either. None of this is particularly noteworthy, but confidence that Quintana is able to continue to perform like a consistent, top of the rotation starter is certainly good news for his trade stock.

Players the White Sox will presumably look to offload in trades during the season are all veterans who are either at the end of, or already past their primes. Comparing the 2016 stats for Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, or Brett Lawrie with their 2017 PECOTA projections doesn’t reveal anything but minor variance for well-established major leaguers.

Even Miguel Gonzalez, who surprised most with a 3.73 ERA and 4.04 DRA in 2016 after four straight seasons in which he hovered around replacement level, isn’t projected to take a giant step back. While PECOTA gives him a significant ERA bump up to 4.49, his rate stats all are around the same as we saw last year.

The one exception to this rule seems to be with Jose Abreu, whom PECOTA projects to have his best season by WARP since his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2014. Many of the common stats, batting average, on-base percentage, strikeouts and walks, aren’t all that different, but after slugging a career-low .468 in 2016, his power number is projected at .495. Abreu recently turned 30 and there was speculation of him battling injuries a year ago. It’s likely his rookie season is the best we see of Abreu, but his ability to continue to provide value on the other side of 30 will be important for both his and the team’s future.

Projections are fun to keep us company as we wait for actual baseball to be played, and also serve an important purpose when we’re evaluating the progress of players as well as who is defying expectations, either for better or worse. And while the projections are less integral in determining the success or failure of a team like the one the Sox have built in 2017, having some semblance of an idea of what to anticipate — whether it be for the building blocks or the trade chips — helps set the scene for what we’ll see.

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