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	<title>South Side &#187; Pitch Framing</title>
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		<title>You Got Framed</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/02/you-got-framed/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/02/you-got-framed/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2017 12:13:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Schaefer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[catcher defense]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago White Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dioner Navarro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Omar Narvaez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pitch Framing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5581</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The accepted wisdom at this point seems to be that the 2016 White Sox invested in non-framing factors at the catcher position in the hopes that the new catchers&#8217; other virtues would compensate for the harm they would cause. Of course, they wound up doubly bitten by the fact that Dioner Navarro didn&#8217;t contribute on offense at all, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The accepted wisdom at this point seems to be that the 2016 White Sox invested in non-framing factors at the catcher position in the hopes that the new catchers&#8217; other virtues would compensate for the harm they would cause. Of course, they wound up doubly bitten by the fact that <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=40216" target="_blank">Dioner Navarro</a> didn&#8217;t contribute on offense at all, and then he performed as poorly on defense as had been anticipated.</p>
<p>But the magnitude of just how bad he was needs to be expressed mathematically, because just saying, &#8220;He was really bad&#8221; doesn&#8217;t capture it.  People acknowledge Navarro was bad in the way people take for a given that the Spanish Flu was bad, but when you actually quantify it, in 1918 the Spanish Flu killed as many as 50 million people or up to 5 percent of the world&#8217;s population at the time. Similarly, the White Sox were minus-26.4 in framing runs as a team, worst in MLB, with Navarro registering minus-19.9 in only half a season&#8217;s worth of games.</p>
<p>As a result, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=65751" target="_blank">Chris Sale</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51645" target="_blank">Jose Quintana</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70883" target="_blank">Carlos Rodon</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47476" target="_blank">Miguel Gonzalez</a> finished second, third, ninth, and 17th in all of baseball in terms of most value lost to poor framing by their catchers.  Sale and Quintana are veteran front-line starters who muddled through, but Rodon clearly suffered dramatically.  Despite posting a good 3.44 DRA and a cFIP of 87 — a top 20 mark among pitchers with more that 140 innings — his ERA was 4.04.</p>
<p>The 2017 White Sox are going to be bad, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66068" target="_blank">Omar Narvaez</a> is likely mediocre-to-okay as a receiver rather than a true asset, but he doesn&#8217;t need to be more than that to be a massive upgrade. A team with neutral framing — zero runs added or subtracted — would have been 15th in the majors instead of 30th.  The White Sox were further negative at minus-26.4 than the best team in the majors was positive at 25.6.</p>
<p>As a result, pitch framing, along with the timing of when good players like Quintana, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53395" target="_blank">Todd Frazier</a>, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45397" target="_blank">Melky Cabrera</a> are dealt, as well as if and when the new elite prospects arrive, represents one of the many variables that could have a big impact on the 2017 team&#8217;s win total. Like many of the White Sox worst positions of the last decade, semi-competence represents a quantum leap above what they had in place previously.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s going to be a bad team, but the White Sox eventual record might wind up pretty close to where it was last year based largely on the fact that it would be almost impossible to do anything but improve in this area moving forward.</p>
<p><span style="font-size: xx-small">Lead Image Credit: Troy Taormina // USA Today Sports Images</span></p>
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		<title>Chris Sale still doesn&#8217;t look familiar</title>
		<link>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/04/chris-sale-still-doesnt-look-familiar/</link>
		<comments>http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/04/chris-sale-still-doesnt-look-familiar/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Aug 2016 14:39:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[James Fegan]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Sale]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dioner Navarro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pitch Farming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pitch Framing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4244</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Chris Sale&#8216;s outing Wednesday night looked like a return to form in many respects. Though they used to roll in for him as easily as the morning tide, he victimized the Tigers with his first double-digit strikeout effort of the season and his fourth complete game. His slider, restrained to a slower, slurvy, strike-grabbing version [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=SALE19890330A" target="_blank">Chris Sale</a>&#8216;s outing Wednesday night looked like a return to form in many respects. Though they used to roll in for him as easily as the morning tide, he victimized the Tigers with his first double-digit strikeout effort of the season and his fourth complete game.</p>
<p>His slider, restrained to a slower, slurvy, strike-grabbing version of itself for much of the year, was a harder and more overwhelming pitch, and closer resembled the self-taught monster that made him a sensational reliever back in 2010. Sale still seems too new, too hard to wrap our minds around, and still too nationally unexposed to be just drumming up memories of past best moments, but here we are.</p>
<p>His fastball command was not quite throwback. He fell <em>just short </em>of jamming <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=CASTELLAN19920304A" target="_blank">Nick Castellanos</a> enough to prevent him from fisting an RBI double down the right field line and grooved one over the heart of the plate to <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=MARTINEZ19870821A" target="_blank">J.D. Martinez</a> for the decisive blow of the night. That blast further inflated Sale&#8217;s worst home run rate of his career to the flat-out bad 1.1 HR/9 level he&#8217;s sitting at right now, and didn&#8217;t take any spotlight off his <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&amp;sp_type=1&amp;batterX=0&amp;year=2016&amp;month=8&amp;day=03&amp;pitchSel=519242.xml&amp;game=gid_2016_08_03_chamlb_detmlb_1/&amp;prevGame=gid_2016_08_03_chamlb_detmlb_1/" target="_blank">peculiar avoidance of his changeup</a>, as he remained strangely fastball-slider heavy for <a href="http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/05/19/chris-sale-white-sox-profile" target="_blank">someone obsessed with self-preservation</a> earlier in the season.</p>
<p>It was good, but not his best. It had enough reminiscent elements to suggest his best work is still within reach, but was far enough removed to show it wasn&#8217;t quite all available to him Wednesday night. It&#8217;s far enough into the season that any explanation seems worth tugging at, so why ignore the elephant in the room?</p>
<p>I didn&#8217;t want to be too quick to jump all over the decisions the White Sox made at catcher for this season. They were moving on from a backstop in <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=52532" target="_blank">Tyler Flowers</a> who had never hit with consistency, <a href="http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/tyler-flowers-now-among-best-pitch-framers/" target="_blank">seemingly gained his pitch-framing ability in-house</a>, and was not exactly showered with riches when he shopped his very measurable skills on the free agent market. Moving on for the opportunity to acquire two aging and declining veterans who did not project to be even be average at what Flowers did best seemed bizarre, but when major league teams zig when all public data suggests they should zag, it&#8217;s usually prudent to take a step back and wonder what they must know.</p>
<p>Now, the Sox are into August, and it&#8217;s still a mystery. The team is floundering, they never got the offense from the position they hoped for, and Baseball Prospectus has them giving up 28 runs below league average due to poor framing alone.  Sale, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=QUINTANA19890124A" target="_blank">Jose Quintana</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=RODON19921210A" target="_blank">Carlos Rodon</a> all rank among the top-10 most adversely affected pitchers in baseball.</p>
<p>While Quintana is somehow thriving, Rodon is floundering, Sale looks like he&#8217;s pitching over limitations that weren&#8217;t previously there, and all three are dealing with a spike in their home run rate. So is the entire league, but in trying to figure out how Sox pitching is being hurt by all this, having to live in the heart of the zone because <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=NAVARRO19840209A" target="_blank">Dioner Navarro</a> isn&#8217;t allowing them to reliably graze the corners is a more satisfying theory than just hand-waving it all away.</p>
<p>It doesn&#8217;t explain his abandonment of what was a top-level changeup (<a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=519242&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;time=year&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=pcount&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=03/30/2007&amp;endDate=08/04/2016" target="_blank">a 50 percent drop from last season</a>), but less strikes means less pitcher&#8217;s counts for Sale to trot out his putaway offerings.</p>
<p><a href="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2016/08/Sale-counts.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4246" src="http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2016/08/Sale-counts.jpg" alt="Sale counts" width="553" height="129" /></a></p>
<p>Coming into Wednesday, the rate at which Sale was getting to advantageous counts (0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2) against hitters had regressed to levels not seen since his first year as a starter. While a lot of pitchers succeed in different ways, the benefits of being ahead in the count are immutable across the board, and especially for the former strikeout king.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49786">Clayton Kerhsaw</a> is on the 60-day disabled list, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=638">Jake Peavy</a>, who a lifetime ago was a no-doubt top-five pitcher in the National League, is headed to the bullpen. Sale&#8217;s level of dominance was always destined to be temporary, and if 2014 and the insane mid-summer stretch in 2015 remain the peaks of his career, when he was at the height of his power it will be a peak that will stack up favorably against those of all but a few. Decline is coming for Sale, and it will be hard to deal with, but it will be natural, unless it comes because he&#8217;s not being put in the best position to succeed.</p>
<p><em>Lead Image Credit: Rick Osentoski // USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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