All of this to say, a successful 2018 campaign will be less about wins and losses and more about an oft repeated term: progress. You may remember our own Collin Whitchurch writing as much this time last year. In this piece we’ll take a look at what progress means to one very important member of the organization: Rick Hahn.

For a general manager coming off a 67 win season and an eleven year run of declining attendance, Hahn has not shied away from acknowledging a dreary outlook for the major league squad in 2018. In his own words, losing makes him and the front office unhappy. So, in a season that will surely involve a good deal of unhappiness, what might bring a smile to the GM’s face at the end of this season? Look no further than the following checklist:

1) Player progress (duh)

2) Health!

3) Fan base enthusiasm

Most obvious here is that the White Sox 2018 campaign will be judged by how the youth movement continues to progress. For the opening day squad the areas of necessary improvement are plentiful. Just to name a few:

• Will Yoan Moncada hit and power tools progress and allow him to reach his .280 average and 30/30 potential?
• Will Lucas Giolito’s improved curveball and velocity stick, returning him to the front-line starter conversation of 2015?
• Will Reynaldo Lopez find the plate with enough frequency to prove he can stick in the rotation?
• Is Avisail Garcia actually good? (Please let him be good.)
• Can Tim Anderson rebound from a dreadful 2017 and become a .280, 20/20 player?
• Will Carlos Rodon return to the mound in June and build on the potential he’s flashed his entire career?
• Will anyone emerge from the bullpen quagmire as 2018’s Kahnle/Swarzak trade chips?
• Can Nicky Delmonico stick as a major league regular and win 2018’s Most Handsome Player?

On the minor league side, the opportunities and potential are even better documented. I imagine Hahn will be watching the affiliates’ progress as closely as the major league club to answer any of the following.

• How much longer will Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech’s inevitable marches to stardom be paused in Birmingham and Charlotte?
• Can Alec Hansen‘s and Dylan Cease’s electric stuff help them continue to rocket up the affiliate charts?
• Will Zack Collins be able to improve his hit tool to go along with his solid plate discipline, and stay behind the plate defensively?
• What is a Luis Robert?
• Will Dane Dunning lock up that sweet Rec Specs sponsorship?

Realistically, not every player is going to take the necessary steps forward this year. The volatility of prospects is certain to break a few hearts, and Sox fans have seen too many seasons of Gordon Beckham or Dayan Viciedo to assume promising players are destined to reach potential. This Spring Training’s injury bug has already secured setbacks for Robert and Jake Burger, which leads us of an essential component to a successful season: organizational health.

For a long stretch Herm Schneider’s voodoo magic kept White Sox players on the field at an unprecedented rate.  In 2017 that magic ran its course. The season began with 60-day DL placements for Carlos Rodon and Charlie Tilson and the injury demon progressed to consume Nate Jones, Zack Putnam, and Geovany Soto. Now spring training has been marred by high profile injuries that will slow the progression of Burger and Robert. Hansen seems to have avoided catastrophic injury, but all of this serves to remind us how delicate the elbow of a flame-throwing 23-year-old can be. If the club can avoid any more major injuries and the impressive stable of young pitchers are able to turn in complete seasons, Hahn will certainly be a happy man.

While the performances on the field are the most visible metrics of success, another factor is a little less tangible: fan enthusiasm. By the clearest statistic, attendance, the past decade has not been kind to the Sox. Aside from a small bump following the spending spree of 2015, attendance has been down every year since 2006. Last year, the turnstiles of Guaranteed Rate Field registered just over 20,000 fans per game. Only three clubs averaged fewer fans and those clubs play in either a nightclub-aquarium, a football stadium, or St. Petersburg, Fla. Not quite the company you’re hoping for. Despite the exceptionally lackluster showing at the park, one could argue that team enthusiasm is at a high not seen in years. The front office is banking on the infusion of young talent to drive fan interest and, if a sold out SoxFest is an indication, it’s working. Giolito starts have the potential to become must-watches, and the continuing progress of Moncada should have every fan tuning in. But arguably the most marketable draws will begin the season in the minors. While their play will ultimately dictate their promotion schedule, don’t be surprised to hear early fan clamors for the arrival of Kopech and Jimenez.

Balancing player progression against fan interest will be Hahn’s most delicate task in 2018. If Sox attendance drops below 20,000 per game, James Shields/Hector Santiago/Carson Fulmer continue to get shellacked, and Kopech continues his development as a cross between Nolan Ryan and Hansel, Hahn will have a difficult time justifying keeping the blue-chipper in Charlotte. Need a sellout and a good marketing gimmick? Then flip open your Sox schedule and put a big circle around July 30 for Kopech’s debut with the Red Sox making their way to Chicago. How about Hansen on the mound for a few starts in September? A decent performance from the veterans would alleviate a lot of this pressure, but the emergence of the next wave of stars is certain to put butts in otherwise empty seats. If the Sox marketable prospects can lead to an uptick in ticket sales in September, look for Hahn to use it to try to pry open Jerry Reinsdorf’s pocketbook next offseason.

And on the topic of fan enthusiasm, we already know Nolan Arenado looks good in pinstripes…

Lead Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe that’s a bit dramatic.

The Winter Meetings are over and the rumors are swirling, which means we are getting close to Christmas time. While it’s been a rather quiet offseason, that doesn’t mean the folks in Bridgeport aren’t wishing to make some noise this holiday season. In fact, some of their wishes could be coming true very soon.

Here what they might be asking for on the South Side this year.

Rick Hahn

Hahn’s Christmas Wish: An open Jerry Reinsdorf checkbook in 2018

Rick Hahn has done a lot with the White Sox in last 12 months. Committing to a rebuild and moving players has put the White Sox in a position to have not only top-tier blue chip prospects, but quality depth in their farm system as well.

While the Sox rebuild is still in progress, Hahn mentioned at the Winter Meetings that the team would look to add via trades and free agency if it fits in the long-term plans of the organization and an opportunity presented itself.

Manny Machado could be that opportunity. However, not necessarily this season. While I understand the thought of bringing him in for a year and hopefully getting him to sign an extension, there’s more risk than reward.

There’s reason to be skeptical about the White Sox chances to get Machado.  His market is already heating up with the Orioles putting the 24-year-old third baseman/shortstop on the trading block, and there will no shortage of suitors on the free agent market. It’s possible for Machado’s deal in 2018 to eclipse $300 million, which doesn’t fit the White Sox DNA. For one, the largest contract in Sox history was the 6 year, $68 million contract the team signed Jose Abreu to in 2014. Would Jerry Reinsdorf almost quadruple the largest contract they’ve given to any player, ever?  It’s hard to imagine.

Hahn and co. were able to get Reinsdorf to approve this rebuild, so whose to say they can’t convince the Sox chairman to write the check? Especially if it ignites the rebuild that gets him closer to winning World Series.

Rick Renteria

Renteria’s Christmas Wish: Be a more exciting version of the 2015 Minnesota Twins

The 2015 Minnesota Twins were very similar to the upcoming Chicago White Sox team. Like the Sox, the Twins were in the middle of their rebuild.  They had young players on the horizon, most notably Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, the latter being the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball, and had very low expectations.

They had no position player hit more than 28 home runs and just one player had a batting average that eclipsed the .280 mark.  Their pitching staff was just as mediocre with a 4.07 team ERA and their best player by WARP was starter Kyle Gibson (11-11, 3.84 ERA, 4.1 WARP).

Yet despite all those different factors, they found a way to win games. 83 of them to be exact, and found themselves in the middle of the AL Wild Card race in late August and September.

Renteria’s squad can have a similar season in ’18 and his club is already more exciting than the team the Twins ran out there in 2018.

The White Sox will trot out one of the youngest rosters in baseball this Spring with four of its five starters and seven of its nine position players under the age of 26. That number will only continue to drop with the expected arrival of prospects such as Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech (we’ll talk about them later).

Because of the young players that will be playing, there is a level of variance as to how the White Sox will perform and likely have an affect on the team’s overall performance.

The White Sox will take a step forward this season. Like last year, they’ll be competitive, win some games and even surprise some people. An AL Wild Card run shouldn’t be something they expect, but if things go right and the Sox young players play well, they can definitely make August and September interesting.

Jose Abreu

Abreu’s Christmas Wish: Stay on White Sox long enough to see the turnaround

Abreu has been worth every penny of the $68 million the White Sox signed him to back in 2014. He’s been a leader both on and off the field and his presence has benefited several players including Reynaldo Lopez and his fellow countryman Yoan Moncada, who referred to Abreu as his “big brother.”

On a baseball level, Abreu has been just as great. He’s hit at least 25 homers in each of his first four seasons and slugged north of .500 in three of while four. There’s no doubt he’s become one of the most feared hitters in MLB during that time.

Can the White Sox get a nice return for the future if they shipped Abreu to a potential contender? It’s likely, even with the abundance of first base-types on the market. And for a team still in a rebuild, it would be crazy for the front office not to think about maximizing his trade value. But could Abreu’s continued presence in the White Sox’ clubhouse prove to be too valuable for a young team that will still need a leader as they start to win in the next two or three years? You bet they do. Look at what Carlos Beltran’s presence did not only the Houston Astros, but the Yankees two seasons ago. Same can be said for Chase Utley in Los Angeles. While Abreu has more baseball left in him than those two did when they were in their mentoring stages of their careers, it’s hard to put a price tag on a solid culture.

If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on Abreu getting his wish.

Yoan Moncada

Moncada’s Christmas Wish: Become a 3.0 or better WAR player in 2018

When I wrote about Yoan Moncada last offseason, no one really knew what to expect from him. He had the tools, he had the physique, but with all the expectation, how would he fare?

Speed? Check.

Power? Check.

Ability to hit? Check.

Strong arm? Check.

Solid glove? Check.

While it took him some time to find that rhythm once he got to the big leagues, he found a nice groove the last month of the season, slashing .276/.349/.469 with eight extra-base hits.

Unlike 2017, Moncada will begin the season as the starting second baseman in 2018 and be penciled into the top of Rick Renteria’s lineup every day. Despite it being his first full season, there’s no reason to believe he can’t take a huge step forward and become a 3.0-WAR type of catalyst for the Sox.

Andrew Benintendi was a 2.6 WAR in his first full season in the big leagues for the Boston Red Sox last year as a main focal point of their lineup. Moncada will be one of the anchors for the White Sox and while there isn’t as big of a supporting cast as Benintendi has in Boston, he’ll have that same level of expectation in his first full season in 2018.

The Cuban phenom managed to have a 1.7 WAR in his brief 54 games with the Sox so looking for him to double that in 2018 isn’t unreasonable. He could even surpass that number if his defense, which is his weakest tool, continues to improve. Moncada actually graded well defensively in 2017.

Moncada is the cornerstone of the White Sox rebuild and may be the future face of the franchise. Everyone saw flashes of the tools that made him the No. 1 overall prospect in baseball and if can tap into all five of those tools, the sky is the limit for what this guy can do in 2018 and beyond.

Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech 

Jimenez/Kopech’s Christmas Wish: Force the team’s hand and break camp with the big-league club

Sure, this is every minor leaguer’s dream, especially when they are on the brink of making it anyway, but when it comes to the White Sox top hitting and pitching prospects, the idea is not too far-fetched.

After being acquired in the Jose Quintana trade, Eloy Jimenez, who was already rated as the eighth best prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus and fourth-best by MLB Pipeline, seemed to get even better following the trade. He hit .345 with Winston-Salem before earning a promotion to Double-A Birmingham where he hit .353 in his small sample size there. Jimenez didn’t cool off when the season ended either as he tore up winter ball in the Dominican.

Michael Kopech, like Jimenez, exceeded the Sox expectation during his first season in the organization. The flamethrower had never topped 100 IP prior to 2017 and not only did he surpass that mark (134) he also remained healthy. Kopech showed that he could handle Double-A, and dominated in the process. He earned himself a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte where he more than held his own in his three starts there.

When discussing ETA of timelines for young players, Hahn always talks about how the “good ones” will force the team’s hand. There’s no reason to rush either of these guys to the majors as both are still just 21 years old. While I believe both will start the year in the minors, it won’t be long before they get the call. Jimenez and Kopech knocked on the door last season, expect them to kick it down in ’18.

Lead Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

This was my third time in attendance, and Hahn’s talk was a cut above those of the past GM presenters. While he obviously wasn’t going to veer into the territory of trade secrets, he was more willing to relate anecdotes that give some flavor of how he approaches his job than the other GMs I’ve seen speak have been. A dump of my notes from the 45 minute talk:

• Hahn said that the first offer they were willing to accept for Jose Quintana didn’t come from the Cubs, but once they had one he quickly moved to see if Theo Epstein was interested in making the deal. He mentioned having forgotten the typical start time for Sunday Cubs games and texting to offer some starting pitching … right after Jon Lester had given up 10 runs. Epstein didn’t take it too personally, it seems.
• He expressed a lot of skepticism about teams that are willing to put a single number valuation on a player (whether veteran or prospect), saying he thinks there’s too much uncertainty and too many different player profiles for him to take such ratings particularly seriously. He said it’s frustrating to hear in trade talks that “this player is worth $100 million and my prospect is worth $120 million, so there’s no way we’re doing this deal.”
• He praised the quality of public scouting, and said the greater attention paid to prospects has made his job harder, as both fans and ownership are more attached to their prospects and accordingly skeptical of dealing them. That’s something I hadn’t heard before, and has a ring of truth to it, but I’m mostly relaying it because I like the mental image of Jerry Reinsdorf hitting refresh every thirty seconds to see how many Sox made the BP Midseason Top 50.
• He told a very funny story about dealing with A.J. Preller that David Laurila wrote up at FanGraphs.
• Hahn mentioned multiple times using scouts as a data source, i.e. evaluating players in part not just by how much the scouts like them but which scouts and how they’ve done with similar players in the past. This isn’t a novel idea by any means, but given the amount of skepticism that’s been directed toward White Sox scouts both pro and amateur over the past few years it’s good to see them be introspective. (It’s also a classic example of an analytical project probably every team has done that’s impossible to do with public data.)
• With respect to Statcast, Hahn mentioned that they’re still working out what’s useful from the reams of data, but mentioned he thought their analytical advantages were with respect to “foot speed and defense.” I’m not sure what he’s alluding to with respect to speed (though their current major league roster has a lot more than past iterations), but the point about defense does align with the White Sox going from 21st to 15th to fifth in shifts over the last three years, per Fangraphs.
• Hahn referred to the White Sox as a “mid-upper-small market team.” I don’t know what he meant by that.
• As made the rounds on Twitter and in some beat writer reports, Hahn casually but pointedly suggested Reynaldo Lopez would be starting Friday against the Royals. He said he’d done everything they asked, but they thought it was unfair to have him make his major league debut against either the Red Sox (on the road) or the Astros. That’s a good point, but then again he didn’t have to pay good money on Saturday night to see James Shields give up 4 runs in 6 innings and still lower his ERA.
• It’s nothing new, but Hahn emphasized Don Cooper and Herm Schneider’s importance to the organization repeatedly, saying they keep pitchers healthy and effective, dictate development strategy for the entire organization, and serve as a lure for pitchers who realize they could use some help. He jokingly said it helped cancel out the advantages that a team like the Padres gets from a warm climate and a pitcher’s park.
• Hahn explained the Sox reputation as a team opposed to leaks by saying he thinks it makes it harder to make deals and that he hates what leaked trade discussions do to a player.

Other White Sox-related notes from the weekend:

• Ben Cherington called Hahn “one of the smartest and best guys in baseball.”
• Julia Prusaczyk, an MLBAM intern, presented on modeling sacrifice flies using Statcast data, including a table showing Avisail Garcia as being the seventh hardest throwing outfielder in the big leagues.
• Tyler Clippard showed up on a couple leaderboards, being the eighth most distinctive right-handed pitcher in 2016 per the metric Glenn Healey presented based on research he’s done with Shiyuan Zhao and Dan Brooks (which was presented on the mothership a few weeks ago). He is also the sixth worst high leverage reliever in the bigs this year, per Paul Mammino’s talk.
• Mammino also had Ronald Belisario’s 2014 season as the second worst high leverage season of the last 10 years, which only goes to show how silly it was for Chief Keef to use him as an example of getting hitters out (link has NSFW language).
• As I mentioned above, Benetti was the MC, and I’d be remiss not to mention that he did a fantastic job. As on broadcasts, he knows when to be funny and when to be serious, and made thoughtful comments all weekend without getting in anyone’s way. He also was clearly paying close attention to the talks with an eye on including the results or ways of thinking in broadcasts when opportunities arise. A couple other folks came up to me and mentioned how fortunate White Sox fans are to get him for most of the team’s games. He also teased a few games with a three man booth next year, which I’m sure will be an interesting viewing experience.

Lead Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

2. Miguel Gonzalez, James Shields, and Mike Pelfrey were the other three pitchers to go against the Red Sox over the weekend. They pitched just about as badly as Rodon did well. Gonzalez lasted just 1 2/3 innings while giving up seven earned runs. Shields and Pelfrey both spent more time looking over their shoulder at home runs than delivering to the plate. A lot of this is to be expected. The White Sox aren’t good, and being good isn’t their current intent. Gonzalez’s start was clearly not one that is ever desired, but there were positives to be found in the starts made by both Shields and Pelfrey. Shields was able to scrape by six innings while Pelfrey was just a single out away from doing the same. With a bullpen that’s been emptied through trades often taking on the burden of finishing games in which the starter leaves far too early, those types of outings are incredibly important. The bullpen was beleaguered in the first game of the series because of Gonzalez’ short start, but Shields and Pelfrey were able to help chip in to keeping the arms in the pen well-rested.

3. Zack Collins has been the subject of much debate as part of a loaded White Sox farm system. The results have been bad, but the tools he showed in his time at Miami were good enough to make him Chicago’s first round pick a little over a year ago. Being an older player stuck in High-A is never a great sign, especially when he’s struggling mightily to hit the ball. One of the weaknesses that has been pointed out in his game since draft day is the existence of a hitch in his swing. The Athletic’s James Fegan recently saw him in North Carolina and received some answers to questions about his poor season. Collins recognizes his failures, but he refuses to put the blame on anything other than his own poor play. That kind of maturity is important in a player that has struggled early in his pro career. The hope is that he figures things out in 2018, putting himself back among the best White Sox prospects.

4. Rick Hahn spoke at Saber Seminar, an annual baseball analytics conference in Boston, this weekend. He provided a Q&A for those in attendance and unsurprisingly received questions about when Reynaldo Lopez would make his way to Chicago. His response was vague but blunt enough to draw a real conclusion.

Asked about pitching prospects being called up, Hahn said "Maybe buy tickets for Friday night."

— Phenomenal Source (@SouthSideSox) August 5, 2017

It certainly seems like Lopez will be making his first White Sox start on Friday. He pitched on Sunday, having his worst start in recent weeks. It wasn’t a complete disaster, but he did allow four earned runs on four hits and three walks in five innings pitched. The good news is that he struck out nine. His stuff is certainly ready for the big leagues, but the question remains about whether he can control the ball well enough to maintain a starting role. It looks like Lopez will get two months in the big leagues to prove that he can. At the very least, it gives White Sox fans something to look forward to and watch as this team tumbles even lower in the standings.

5. Yoan Moncada hasn’t had an earth-shattering start to his White Sox career, but that doesn’t make him a bust either. Things have started to turn around, however, in the trip to Boston. He registered hits in five of his 17 plate appearances and also drew three walks. He still isn’t quite at the level that is expected, but he’s certainly showing a good process. When he adjusts to major league pitching and becomes more aggressive, he should see more success. It’s far too early to be worried about the young second baseman.

Lead Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The one piece that threw a bit of cold water on the excitement Tuesday came from ESPN’s Keith Law, who wondered if the White Sox committed too much money to someone who might wind up more like the Cuban imports who failed (Rusney Castillo, Hector Olivera) than those who succeeded (Yoenis Cespedes, Yasiel Puig).

Law is a respected evaluator and admits he’s yet to see Robert in person — instead relying on info he’s received from scouts who have — but while the concern that Robert won’t live up to the money the White Sox committed to him is valid, the risks that come with a player of his ilk are not unlike basically any other prospect.

No young player, whether he’s a draft pick or international signee, is a finished product. Robert is no sure thing, just like any Global Top 100 or even Top 10 prospect isn’t a sure thing. But in order for the White Sox to build a competitive core and find long-term success, they need to be able to take risks like committing multi-million dollar contracts to 19-year-old players.

So while Robert isn’t a sure thing, he’s a smart, calculated signing from a team that hasn’t been willing to commit those kinds of resources all that often in the past. A necessary and important step in the right direction.

2. Dylan Covey left Tuesday’s 5-4 loss to the Diamondbacks with an oblique injury after giving up four runs in 2 1/3 innings, and the White Sox somehow stayed within striking distance while Chris Beck, Gregory Infante, and David Holmberg survived the next 4 2/3 innings.

From a short-term perspective, that trio surviving the evening was important for a team playing its ninth of 10 straight west coast games. But while Covey hasn’t showed much in terms of progress during his eight starts, the White Sox pitching rotation depth is growing increasingly thin if Covey joins Carlos Rodon and James Shields on the disabled list.

If Covey does miss time, the White Sox options pretty much boil down to another quad-A placeholder like Chris Volstad (and his 6.55 ERA in Charlotte), the low ceiling but at least somewhat enticing Tyler Danish, or the anticipated ascension of Reynaldo Lopez. While the White Sox have a much needed day off Thursday, a doubleheader Friday complicates things. Whether they decide someone like Lopez is ready or not will likely be known by whether or not they opt for him or another short-term fix.

3. Speaking of injuries, Rick Hahn gave an update on the host of disabled White Sox Monday, and while no timetable was given on the return of Rodon, the fact that he is continuing to throw every fifth day and ramping up his workload is obviously a good sign.

We’re past the point of expecting Rodon to post the breakout season that was hoped for before the season began, and at this point him just proving he can look like his old self for a few months would be a step in the right direction. We’re still a ways off from him joining the rotation, but if he’s able to do that successfully, it’ll go a long way toward this injury becoming more of a minor road bump in his career than a major issue.

4. Omar Narvaez entered the season as one of several young players looking to prove they belonged on a major league roster. Thus far, he’s been about everything he was a year ago, which is to say his defense neither stands out nor offends, and he gets on base a ton while hitting for practically no power.

FRAA still doesn’t like him much — he grades out at -1.1, which is 14th out of the 21 with at least as many framing opportunities as him this season. But he was -4.1 a year ago in nearly as many opportunities, so there have been signs of improvement.

Offensively, his walk rate would be among the Top 10 in the league if he had enough plate appearances to qualify, but he also has all of two extra base hits, slugging a paltry .264, somehow about 70 points lower than a year ago. While Narvaez still has only a little more than 200 plate appearances to his credit thus far in his career, a pretty solid performance baseline seems to have been set.

5. One of the fun things about outscoring a team 26-3 over a three-game span, as the White Sox did over the weekend in Seattle, is that you wake up and your mediocre baseball team suddenly has the best run differential in the division.

The American League Central is proving to be about as average as everyone expected this season, with only the Royals looking like a hilarious train wreck thus far and Cleveland failing to separate themselves early on. Minnesota is off to a surprising but almost certainly unsustainable good start, and the Tigers are neither good nor bad, which is pretty boring.

Things will almost certainly stabilize, and the smart money is still on Cleveland running away with things before long (their odds of winning the division is 76 percent), but it’s easy to get wrapped up in the day-to-day of the White Sox rebuild and forget just how terribly average most of their main competition is as well.

Lead Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

“This year has been one of the toughest times of my career,” Anderson said. “It’s hard to stay up when you’re struggling. I’ve been sticking with it. I’m learning a lot more than I have been throughout my career because every stop that I’ve made I’ve dominated and kept going. It’s kind of like I hit a wall real quick and I’m learning more and studying more and now it’s time to break the game down and learn a lot more about it.”

Anderson has always seemed like a different breed of White Sox hitting prospect, and probably still is. Despite his struggles, he’s shown glimpses of the athleticism and the hit tool he displayed for the majority of 2016 this year, and the season is still young enough that we haven’t reached full blown panic mode just yet. But given the hitting prospects who have come, disappointed, and gone, it’s hard not to worry.

The good news is that there’s nothing about his performance that screams of much more than a slump.  He’s still striking out a lot (25 percent), but actually slightly less often than a year ago. He’s also not walking much (2.5 percent), but an indiscernible amount from last year (3 percent). His chase and contract rates are virtually identical. The only major differences are that his line drive rate is down (14.1 percent from 20.8 percent), and his fly ball rate is up (38.8 percent from 24.9 percent). Likewise, his hard hit rate (27.9 percent) is down about five percent from a year ago while his soft contact rate is up eight percent.

OK, that’s a lot of numbers. But what can they would seem to suggest is that Anderson’s timing is off. Couple that with his defensive lapses, and the struggles seem more mental than anything, which can hopefully be corrected sooner than later, less for the sake of the team’s on-field success than for his development and future prospects, as well as our collective sanity.

2. The White Sox wrapped up the month of April on a six-game winning streak, reaching a season-high four games over .500 at 13-9, before promptly losing seven of nine, the latest of which put the White Sox one game under .500, a 7-2 loss to old friend Hector Santiago and the Twins Tuesday in the first game of a six-game home stand.

These facts are relevant in so much as we’ve been tasked, for better or worse, with covering the day-to-day of this White Sox season. There are going to be plenty of embarrassing losses, and you can only learn so much from a Mike Pelfrey start or Cody Asche plate appearances. But there are still plenty of happenings relevant to both the present and future of the White Sox.

3. The Luis Robert sweepstakes is in the home stretch as we’re 10 days away from the 19-year-old Cuban outfielder being able to sign with a major league team. Ben Badler reported Monday that the White Sox were among a handful of teams who held private workouts with Robert, and both Ken Williams and Rick Hahn were in attendance. The Cardinals, Padres, Athletics, Reds, and Astros have also had private workouts with Robert, according to Badler.

The rub in the Robert bidding is that the White Sox are the only of the six aforementioned teams that have not yet reached their bonus pool limits for this international spending penalty. The fact that those five teams have already done so means they won’t incur additional penalties if they break the bank for Robert, while the White Sox have to decide if he’s worth forfeiting the ability to sign players subject to the bonus pool for the next two signing periods.

Any time the White Sox find themselves in a bidding war, the smart money is on the other team(s), but for what it’s worth, Hahn has said in the past that the White Sox would be willing to go over the bonus pool and be penalized for the right prospect, and he acknowledged how tough the bidding will be Tuesday.

“He’s an extremely talented young man who is going to have an impact on whatever organization he winds up joining and given the fact the collective bargaining agreement changes how these players are treated here these few weeks this is really the last opportunity for certain clubs to exercise strictly their financial might in order to receive such a talent,” Hahn said. “I expect there will be robust bidding on this player.” 

The White Sox unwillingness to break the bank in free agency during supposed contending years was frustrating, and is among the many reasons they’ve reached the point of rebuilding. If they’re unable to sign Robert, it wouldn’t necessarily indicate they’re also unwilling to do so in this regard given the obstacles, but success would be a tremendous step in the right direction and a sign they’re putting their money where their mouth is in terms of committing to the rebuild.

4. Yoan Moncada hasn’t stopped hitting, and is up to .345/.419/.549 at Triple-A Charlotte this season, which means the chatter about when we’ll see him in Chicago hasn’t stopped either. There are worse problems than having a prospect hitting well enough to bring about these never-ending discussions. Like, say, that prospect not playing well.

Moncada is the most important hitting prospect the White Sox have seen in a very long time, and is also the single most important player to the organization’s future. Hahn seems to realize this.

“He’s shown a fair amount of progress in each of those areas that we’ve asked of him,” Hahn said. “That said, we want to see that over an extended period of time. It’s awfully important to not lose sight of the fact this is a 21-year-old player, one who was not playing two years ago as of right now. It’s a guy who has fewer than 325 or so plate appearances above A-ball.

So we think the world of his talent and future and we think he is responding to the challenges we put ahead of him, but we’re not going to rush this.”

The White Sox have the benefit of not needing a quick fix, as it won’t hurt the team’s present for Tyler Saladino, Yolmer Sanchez, or whomever to get extra reps at second base in the meantime. Patience is the preferred path, and there’s no such thing as waiting too long in a situation such as this.

5. Among the more random topics from Hahn’s media session on Tuesday was a question regarding whether the White Sox would consider trading with the Cubs, which garnered an expected response.

“Absolutely,” he said. “Any deal we make is about maximizing the future of the White Sox. … So there is zero issue doing a deal with the Cubs or any of the other 28 teams after them,” Hahn said Tuesday before the Sox lost to the Twins 7-2 at Guaranteed Rate Field. “We’re about putting the White Sox in the best position. Hopefully, through our trades, both sides wind up winners.”

The White Sox haven’t made a trade with the Cubs since 2006, but the Cubs’ early season pitching woes and plethora of prospects, coupled with the White Sox having a trade chip in Jose Quintana have brought about rumblings that they might be fit for a deal.

Nothing substantial has been reported, and speculating otherwise until then is mostly unnecessary, but along with the Astros, Yankees, and others, the Cubs do make a lot of sense.

Lead Photo Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

First and foremost, the decision was made with increasing offensive production in mind. Flowers hit an abysmal .239/.295/.356 with a wRC+ of 79 in 2015. With patchwork being done elsewhere on offense, the White Sox simply didn’t believe they had any path to success with Flowers in the lineup on a daily basis. That’s certainly a fair assessment. However, Flowers went on to have the best offensive season of his career in Atlanta in 2016. Perhaps the automatic reaction is that Flowers went to a somewhat weaker National League, and the White Sox had no way of predicting that a breakout was coming.

That is not necessarily true. While Flowers wasn’t great during the 2015 season, he showed some shockingly good improvements in areas that sometimes go unnoticed. From 2014 to 2015 some serious improvements were made in his contact and swing rates. He lowered his swing percentage on pitches outside the zone from 34.1 to 29.5 percent while keeping his swing percentage on pitches inside the zone relatively the same. Laying off the garbage helped him raise his contact rate on pitches inside the zone by 7.9 percent. Even more noticeable was the drop in strikeout rate from 36 to 28.8 percent. That adjustment seemed to stick around in Atlanta where he held a 28 percent strikeout rate while raising his walk rate a bit to become an above average hitter, which is not often seen from catchers.

The success of Flowers only compounded the issues that the White Sox saw from their decision to change things at catcher. While they were looking to make an offensive improvement, neither Avila nor Navarro held up their ends of the deal. Navarro’s slash line was horrifying. He hit .207/.265/.322 with a 56 wRC+. He was disastrous at the plate, which was where he was supposed to excel. Avila faired slightly better, mostly due to his ability to take a walk. Avila had a walk rate of 18.2 percent, which helped him reach above average wRC+ (104). The offensive production was bad and disappointing. However, the White Sox can be mostly forgiven for that part of it. They expected success at the plate (although perhaps that’s a poor reflection of their scouting department), but they got failure. Where the White Sox were really burned for their decision was behind the plate.

Tyler Flowers was coming off his best defensive season, in which he had an FRAA of 11.0 and ranked third in framing runs with 15.2. The misconception appears to be that the White Sox weren’t even aware of this impressive framing ability, especially in the year before his release. Rick Hahn put those suggestions to bed with his comments during a conference call in March.

“I think there’s an unfortunate perception out there that we let Tyler Flowers go because we don’t believe in or perhaps are even not aware of framing data,” he said. “Hopefully people realize it was a little more of a sophisticated decision than that. We certainly have, I believe, owned the fact that it did not pan out with (Dioner) Navarro and (Alex) Avila the way we had hoped.”

Hahn makes two things clear with this statement. First, the White Sox do consider and value framing data. Second, he owns up to the fact that the decision to move from Flowers to Navarro and Avila was not a success. He went on to talk in a little more detail about framing and the things the White Sox consider when pursuing a catcher.

“We do very much value catcher defense,” he said. “We spend a great deal of time on framing and teaching framing at the minor league level … In fact, you will recall that Tyler made great advances as part of our organization in his framing metrics. When it does come to evaluating a catcher’s defensive ability, we don’t limit it strictly to framing. We would like to also have their ability to control the running game be evaluated, their ability with lateral movement to handle passed balls in the dirt, to a lesser extend wild pitches and the effect a catcher has on that, as well as their ability to work with a pitching staff and manage a pitcher’s compliance with their game plan as well.

“So it’s easy to look at the decision on Tyler and think it was us not understanding or appreciating framing data, however, nothing could be farther from the truth.”

First off, he’s right about the fact that Flowers learned his framing skill in the White Sox minor league system. When he was acquired, he was actually considered an above-average hitter with questions about whether he could stick behind the plate. (Sound familiar?) What is more interesting is that he goes on to describe the other aspects of defense that they do value. Specifically throwing runners out and blocking.

Using numbers from Baseball Prospectus, Flowers had -2.8 blocking runs and -0.6 throwing runs in 2015. Being in the red on any defensive metric isn’t a great sign, but certainly those small negatives are outweighed by the +15.2 runs he produced by framing. It becomes even more questionable when the unimpressive -0.8 blocking runs and -0.6 throwing runs from Navarro in 2016 come into play. His numbers before the addition were very similar, so there wasn’t a drastic change year to year after joining Chicago. Avila wasn’t much better in 2016 with 0.0 blocking runs and -0.6 throwing runs. It’s easy to deflect the displeasure over framing away by mentioning other aspects of defense. After all, framing just happens to be the in vogue stat. However, neither Avila nor Navarro was an upgrade defensively outside of framing.

Add on the poor framing from both Avila and Navarro and the decision becomes even more mind-boggling. It’s not often that an inability to frame is readily seen day to day via the eye test. Navarro made that possible. His -18.8 framing runs in 2016 only backed up what the eyes told us right away. It would’ve been hard to be worse than Navarro behind the plate. In fact, nobody was worse. Avila, however, did his best to catch up by producing a -6.5 framing runs.

The decision to move from Flowers to Avila and Navarro was a bad one. It was made even worse by an inability to identify improvements from Flowers on the offensive side of the ball. The biggest discrepancy, however, was on defense. While Avila and Navarro failed most excessively at framing, they weren’t good in any aspects of defending.

Does this matter anymore? Hahn has owned up to the lack of success they saw from the move. Hahn has expressed a desire to have catchers excel behind the plate. It really shouldn’t matter anymore. However, it continues to leave a bad taste in one’s mouth. Flowers wouldn’t have cost much at all for the White Sox to retain. They failed to see that he was on the verge of a good offensive performance in addition to his consistent ability behind the plate. While Flowers is long gone now, the impact of this catching decision will continue to reverberate.

Rehashing the details of the catchers added last year can be painful, but it perhaps gives us an insight into the mindset of the team going forward. Omar Narvaez appears to be the guy the White Sox are going with for now. At least until Zack Collins can work his way up in the next few years. Narvaez isn’t egregious behind the plate like Navarro and Avila were. However, he’s not going to help his pitchers out nearly as much as Flowers did. The White Sox must deal with the consequences that has for their pitching staff. They must also consider how that affects their decision making in regards to the catcher position going forward. It doesn’t appear as though Narvaez or Collins is going to be impressive on defense, so what are the White Sox going to do if they continue to fall behind the league in catcher defense? The answer to that question remains to be seen. It is, however, certainly a question that must be answered.

Lead Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports Images

In fact, Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez all saw time in the majors a season ago, with the Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals, respectively.

But what they don’t tell you when you purchase a ready-made prospect is that each one comes with a clock. This isn’t the clock you probably think I’m talking about — the service time clock. No, this is like the New Year’s Eve clock in Times Square, except it has an unidentifiable amount of time on it, and often ebbs and flows based on their performance in a myriad of areas during the minor league season.

These clocks are stored deep in Rick Hahn’s desk drawer, and when they hit zero an alarm goes off, and that’s how the White Sox know when to promote players to the major league roster.

For years, these clocks have seemed to malfunction — at least the ones that kept track of position players. They’d go off when a player was still flawed, and he’d show up in a fog, not knowing why he’s up already, desperately trying to hit the snooze button while Justin Verlander or Phil Hughes or Bruce freaking Chen blew pitches past him.

In most cases, those organizational malfunctions proved fatal in the baseball sense. These players were never the same. Maybe some were never going to make it, and the clock was pointless. But others … who knows? That stupid, busted clock may have ruined any chance of them being competent major league players.

This year, the White Sox brought in a horologist, and the clock issue that has plagued them for more than a decade seems, hopefully, finally, to be in their past.

Look, White Sox senior director of baseball operations Dan Fabian said so himself:

“The players will tell us when they’re ready,” Fabian said. “We’re not going to hurry guys. … Part of this process is we can take a step back and not have to hurry guys. When Moncada comes up, it will be because we feel Moncada is ready.”

Hahn said something similar:

“No guy is going to get to Chicago until we feel they’re ready to have success at the big-league level, that they’re ready for that finishing element of their development that happens at the big-league level,” Hahn said last week at the Winter Meetings. “No one’s going to be promoted any time in the foreseeable future simply because there’s a need at their position.”

If you haven’t figured it out by now, this ridiculous, prolonged analogy is about the aforementioned Moncada and the 9-for-23 start he’s gotten off to at Triple-A Charlotte.

Every year there’s a player or two or three who stir up the “service time” conversation, which, as simply as I can put it, is where teams will occasionally wait to promote seemingly major league ready players until a date passes that ensures they’re able to retain that player’s services an extra year before they become a free agent.

It’s entirely possible that, despite what they say, Moncada’s service time is on the forefront of the minds of White Sox brass. It’s possible they don’t give a single damn and are going to call him up when he’s ready, whether it be tomorrow or five months from now. Most likely, it’s somewhere in the middle.

The ethics of teams playing the service time game are for another conversation, but for the sake of the White Sox on the field and their future potential for success, erring on the side of caution would be and is a welcomed development.

Moncada is a top-notch prospect off to a hot start at Triple-A, but two facts remain: He has contact issues and he’s not a finished product defensively. If we’re doing the small sample size analysis, of which we’ve all been guilty of during his hot streak, of the 14 times he’s come to the plate and failed to reach base, eight were via the strikeout. In all, he’s been viewed as a success over the course of his 23 Triple-A at-bats, just as he struggled in his 20 major-league plate appearances just seven months ago. Including this year, he has 47 plate appearances above Double-A in his entire professional career.

Nobody has ever said a prospect was ruined because he spent too much time in the minor leagues.

There’s no such thing as a sure-thing top prospect, but Moncada is as close to one as the White Sox have maybe ever had. For the first time in recent memory, they seem to have a pretty good idea of when the alarm clock is going to go off on a position prospect, and given his importance to the future of this team, they may wind it backward a couple more times yet before it finally hits zero.

The wait will be frustrating for those eager to catch a glimpse of a potential bright spot during an otherwise bleak period in team history, but if they continue to show patience, caution, malfeasance, or whatever you want to call it, he should be worth the wait.

Lead Photo Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The idea that a rebuilding team doesn’t need depth doesn’t hold in the same way for starting pitching. No matter how you slice it, a team needs to get at least 850 innings or so from its starters in a year. If it has trouble picking that many up then there’s a likely increase in bullpen injury risk from overuse — plus whatever psychic toll that many four-hour blowouts has on fans and players.

In the same way that some in this space were critical of the White Sox failure to bring in a veteran catcher who could perhaps stabilize the pitching staff and prevent catastrophe in the event of Omar Narvaez playing like PECOTA expects, there’s some room for concern — not a ton, but some — that there’s no backup plan if something befalls the Sox rotation.

This has become even more apparent after last week’s revelation that Carlos Rodon may start the season on the disabled list. Even before that injury, each of the other four starters breaking camp with the major league club either are likely to be traded (Jose Quintana, Miguel Gonzalez), have injury concerns above even a normal pitcher (Gonzalez, Derek Holland), or are quite possibly finished (Holland and Big Inning James Shields).

While the Sox have Carson Fulmer, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez waiting in the wings, nobody really wants to see them called up earlier than planned because Shields gets brutally mauled by a gopher. As Rick Hahn put it last week:

“You don’t want anyone young or any prospect pushing the issue because there is a need in Chicago. What dictates when a player is in Chicago is going to be his ability to succeed in Chicago, as opposed to a need in Chicago.”

Not counting the prospects, the next set of starters on the depth chart are a pretty unsightly batch, even by the standards of a team that cycled through Mat Latos, John Danks, Erik Johnson, and Anthony Ranaudo last season. There’s nobody bringing even the guarantee of a Scott Carroll or a Dylan Axelrod.

There’s Tyler Danish, who’s young, still has some upside, and didn’t acquit himself last year in his emergency call-up. (Hahn suggested Danish is their most likely option.) While Rule 5 pick Dylan Covey has started in the past, he’s never pitched above Double-A, and it’s not clear he’ll break camp with the team anyhow. Chris Volstad is 30 and posted an ERA close to 5 in Charlotte last year; Cory Leubke is 32 and hasn’t started anywhere in years. (There’s also the free agent market, in case you wanted an even sadder end to John Danks’s tenure with the franchise.)

Bluntly, none of those seem like good bets to make more than one start in April or May without the wheels falling off, but that doesn’t make a real catastrophe particularly likely. (It wouldn’t take a “Homer at the Bat” level collapse, but it does require at least two or three players becoming totally unusable.) Even if one or two of the front five take a hit, one of the backup options should be able to do enough to merit a couple of turns; if nothing else, giving each of the four listed above a start or two soaks up enough turns through the rotation to take care of any early DL stints. Thinking more broadly, if none of Fulmer, Giolito, and Lopez is ready by mid-June then the organization has bigger problems to worry about.

Even before Rodon went down, I was concerned about their having to rush prospects. Hopefully — maybe — if the rebuild goes as planned there can be a few years’ hiatus on articles referring to a “crippling lack of depth” on either side of the ball; God knows the White Sox have run that trope into the ground this decade.

Lead Photo Credit: Ken Blaze/USA Today Sports Images

On if the White Sox are willing to go beyond budget caps in international free agency:

“Certainly we are only talking theoretically, yes, we would consider going past the signing limitations and incurring a tax in this year’s signing period. As you know this is the last signing period prior to the new CBA rules taking effect July 2. Although we have not as of yet under the currently international rules moved into that penalty realm on international signings, it is something we have discussed internally.”

While Hahn couldn’t comment on any individual player, the fact that they’ve been linked to 19-year-old Cuban outfielder Luis Robert makes this answer interesting. As he noted, the White Sox have never spent enough in international free agency to incur a penalty, and this is the final signing period before it becomes hard capped. If the White Sox are willing to spend beyond the budget caps for international free agency, it stands to reason that the likes of Robert and perhaps other top international free agents are within the realm of possibilities.

On how the White Sox decide if and when to give a young player a contract extension, as they did with Tim Anderson earlier this week:

“It’s a combination of a number of factors. Obviously the on-field performance is very important because it does go the most distance in dictating what the likely future earnings are of the player. However, we also look at some ancillary factors such as position scarcity at that position.

The other extreme, the softer side of it is how we think the guaranteed money would potentially chance the player if at all. We’ve had these conversations on (Chris) Sale, (Adam) Eaton, (Jose) Quintana, Note Jones, going back years ago Mark Buehrle, who was one of the first we did or at least the first I was part of along these lines. Each of those conversations prior to doing these deals, you have conversations with coaches, and perhaps even with the player himself in some instances about what you believe the impact will be on that talent, on his work ethic, how he approaches his game once he has removed what is sometimes a stress or sometimes a benefit by getting that guaranteed money set aside.

In the situation with Timmy here, every coach and every person in player development to a man immediately indicated that this isn’t going to change how Tim goes about his business one iota. He is motivated not by the cash but more so by maximizing his talent and playing an important role in a championship organization. And that is important.

The fact of the matter is that Tim is young and Tim is still developing. There are still elements of his game that all of us, himself included, want to improve. So feeling some level of confidence that money isn’t going to change how he approaches that development is a big consideration in this.”

It’s not uncommon for a coach or GM to speak of the character of a player when he signs a deal to become a multi-millionaire, but tying it into the decision making process is a unique twist on things and definitely reeked of a bit of candor on Hahn’s part.

It’s impossible to know for sure just how much factors like the ones Hahn speaks on really play a role in whether or not the White Sox would give out the extension. Obviously present and potential on-field performance is first, second, third, fourth, and probably fifth on the list of determining something like that.

But the White Sox have an established and successful history of picking out players who deserve long-term deals and signing them to terms that are incredible team-friendly while also giving that player financial compensation unlike anything they’ve ever seen before. In none of those previous deals Hahn mentioned did it come back to bite them, and hopefully Anderson continues that trend.

On the potential for trades in the near future or if he thinks they’ll wait until closer to the deadline:

“I don’t think it’s real conducive to break off conversations based on artificial deadlines. Certainly when you’re up against the July 31 deadline that has a stronger impact on motivating the speed of conversations. But beyond that one I don’t really think it serves our long-term interests to declare ‘OK, we’re not going to talk to anyone for the next two weeks, or we’re not going to talk to anyone for the next month,’ or we’re going to wait to see how certain things play out.

While there are media stories or the outside perception that these conversations are heating up or cooling off, none of that really impacts how we go about our business and it doesn’t really change the pace of a negotiation, whether it’s rumors or scouts being seen doing their jobs at various places around the league, or the fact that Opening Day is upon us.”

Nothing particularly insightful here. The point of this question was more so to find out if the trade market cools down the closer we get to Opening Day and you can’t really blame Hahn, who is asked the latest updates about the White Sox trade prospects basically any time the media gets an audience with him, gave a similar answer to one he’s given countless times.

Major trades this late in camp aren’t particularly common — Craig Kimbrel a few years ago stands alone in my mind at first blush — but I think while the answer is something we’ve heard a few times, it speaks to exactly the mentality the White Sox seem to be taking: looking for deals but in no rush, opting instead to wait for one that strikes their fancy.

On the failed catching experiment last season and how they perceive catcher defense:

“I think there’s an unfortunate perception out there that we let Tyler Flowers go because we don’t believe in or perhaps are even not aware of framing data. Hopefully people realize it was a little more of a sophisticated decision than that. We certainly have, I believe, owned the fact that it did not pan out with (Dioner) Navarro) and (Alex) Avila the way we had hoped.

We do very much value catcher defense. We spend a great deal of time on framing and teaching framing at the minor league level … In fact, you will recall that Tyler made great advances as part of our organization in his framing metrics.

When it does come to evaluating a catcher’s defensive ability, we don’t limit it strictly to framing. We would like to also have their ability to control the running game be evaluated, their ability with lateral movement to handle passed balls in the dirt, to a lesser extend wild pitches and the effect a catcher has on that, as well as their ability to work with a pitching staff and manage a pitcher’s compliance with their game plan as well.

So it’s easy to look at the decision on Tyler and think it was us not understanding or appreciating framing data, however, nothing could be farther from the truth.”

We can hash and rehash and re-rehash the White Sox catching debacle of 2016, but it really sounds like Hahn has heard enough. The Sox made a mistake and wound up with unexpectedly worse offensive production to go along with the expectedly worse defensive production.

I do think it would be naive to assume the White Sox don’t value catcher defense in a similar fashion to other teams. The point about the improvements Flowers made from the time he entered the system to the time he left is well taken. And now that the White Sox are no longer attempting to contend, giving the likes of Omar Narvaez a chance while also developing him, along with other youngsters, is not a terrible strategy.

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