The predicament that the White Sox are in lies in that Shields was once good. He was once very good. He posted ERAs in the mid 3.00 range for the majority of his 11-year career, has a career 12 percent HR/FB rate, and even just last season in San Diego was posting a 25 percent strikeout rate.

So what happened? And how did it all happen so fast? Shields may have had been prone to giving up long balls last year in San Diego (which in such a pitcher-friendly park is somewhat alarming), but DRA thought Shields was a little bit better than his ERA suggested last season (3.91 ERA against a 3.58 DRA).

Of course, Shields is in his age-34 season, so he is expected to decline, but there is a difference between a decline and the wheels coming completely off from one season to the next.

There is something up with the pitchers that the Padres are dealing away. First Shields is more than struggling: okay, perhaps it’s just his age finally hitting him. Then Drew Pomeranz suddenly is pitching to the tune of a 5.26 ERA since being dealt to Boston. Now, for the crest of our lurking suspicions, and possibly the most revealing of them all, the Marlins received all of three innings from Colin Rea when he was dealt from the Padres before it was revealed that he needs Tommy John surgery.

The Padres quickly took Rea back in a trade, which was the most suspicious part of it all.

So could there possibly be something wrong with Shields that the Padres were covering up? Or is this all just a threefold coincidence? Well let’s take a look at something quite interesting and telling about Shields.

In his piece on Shields and the Padres that James Fegan wrote earlier this week, he notes that Shields’ velocity has held up — which for the most part is true. Shields hasn’t seen any large 2-3 mph drop off in his velocity that would immediately indicate that something is wrong. But from 2015 to 2016, Shields has seen a slight decline in velocity on nearly all pitches across the board, especially his hard pitches.

For someone such as Shields, that’s never favorable, no matter how small the decline is. As it is, Shields only has a fastball that averaged around 91-93 mph over the last two seasons, so to lose velocity on a pitch that’s already borderline questionable in velocity is a significant problem. In August, Shields’ fastball is averaging just 90 mph.

Not only that, but when coupled with the location of said fastball, it makes for quite the ugly combination. Take a look at the map on the left, and notice that Shields is leaving the majority of his 90-91 mph fastballs right down the middle. Then look at the map on the right and notice that he’s getting hit hard on fastballs all over the plate.

The loss of velocity, even if it’s slight, along with the location misfires, would automatically lead someone to believe that there are a few things happening here. One could be age, of course, for a pitcher who has endured the workload of Shields (nine-straight 200 inning seasons) and is considered past his prime in Major League Baseball years, that’s possible. But the sudden drastic drop off in quality of pitches and location could possibly have something to do with mechanics, an issue with which the Diamondbacks’ Shelby Miller seems to also be afflicted, leading to his own drastic collapse.

What do we know about mechanics? Well, bad mechanics can often be a symptom of an underlying health issue, and if they aren’t, they certainly are a good way to acquire such an issue.

So does it seem like there is possibly more at play here than just the simple “He’s 34 and has pitched a heavy workload over his 11 year career”? Maybe. Maybe White Sox fans are just desperate to let anyone else shoulder the blame for a season that’s getting to be all too heavy of a weight to carry. But it seems like with the “coincidence” of Pomeranz struggling in Boston, and Rea suffering a serious injury just three innings into his first start with his new team, that unless the Padres are into some heavy voodoo, something could possibly be up here.

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There’s buyer’s remorse, and then there’s the unshakable sense that you just did business with someone who committed a lie of omission. And in how hastily the Padres were willing to trade the Marlins back Luis Castillo–one of the prospects they received in the original deal–to take on Rea and pay for his surgery, there’s a tacit admission of something Buster Olney reports MLB is now investigating: that San Diego knew dire things about Rea’s medicals that they did not disclose to their trading partners.

Olney also reports that the deal to send Drew Pomeranz to Boston, while lacking the smoking gun of a Tommy John surgery but certainly marred by Pomeranz being suddenly completely dreadful in a Red Sox uniform, is also under investigation for the same concerns of undisclosed medical red flags.

There is, of course, one more pumpkin the Padres shipped out this season. Even removed from the blinding disaster of his first three starts, James Shields‘ strikeout rate has dropped by nearly 50 percent since arriving in Chicago, along with a very visible degradation of his stuff.

However, Shields is not mentioned in Olney’s reports, and despite his suspiciously immediate and steep decline, the Shields deal does not fit as comfortably alongside the other two. He’s 34-years-old with a massive career workload that would suggest decline was already around the corner, he’s continued to log heavy innings for the Sox (averaging over six frames per night during his last eight starts), his velocity has held up even though his whiffs have not, and the return package of Erik Johnson and Fernando Tatis Jr. along with the significant salary relief the Padres offered suggested that the Sox knew they were paying for a diminished asset.

Still, even a cursory review of the Shields trade is a natural progression of investigating the Padres trades this season, and how forthcoming A.J. Preller & Co. have been about the state of the players they have been shipping out. There likely won’t be enough there to fully redeem a pro scouting department that has stepped on far too many landmines in recent years, but there’s hope for some clarity on the deal that aligned with the demise of the 2016 White Sox and likely saddled the team with a below-average starter through 2018.

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You do this deal. If you take nothing away from this article, if you decide the time you would spend reading the rest of this piece would be better utilized to watch Captain America-themed parodies of Carly Rae Jepsen songs, looking at pictures of steaks, or speaking to your family, take away this: this is good value for a fine solution to a real need.

Tatis has a memorable name, a nice overall profile, revered makeup and is a credit to the White Sox’ slowly improving international amateur operation. Matt Cassidy of Future Sox wrote about him positively when he was signed last July, summarizing him as “a well-rounded prospect who can do a bit of everything, but he doesn’t have the big impact tools.” But this is a 17-year-old who was not on any lists for top international signings, nor did he make Future Sox’s top-30 lists for the organization. He is a “prospect” but too far away from any realization of his value for it to even be a question on whether it is worth it to ship him out for a real major league asset.

As has been argued here before, nothing Johnson has showed in any of his auditions over the last two years has provided much hope for him finding a place in a major league rotation. He commands his low-90s fastball well enough to get more whiffs than would be expected at that velocity, but he lacks control and his secondary stuff is not sharp enough to miss bats on a major league level. In all, major league hitters have tuned Johnson up for .276/.359/.489 over his career with no sign of abating. Scott Carroll once said, “starting pitching is about rhythm and tempo,” and maybe a change of scenery and regular opportunities in San Diego will allow Johnson to find himself in a way that shuffling around in between failed big league auditions and the minors does not, but the ostensibly contending Sox cannot offer that to the 26-year-old, and there is no upside to be tapped in having him continue to master Triple-A hitters.

Beyond two guys who cannot really be considered serious factors in the Sox immediate and future plans, they have now brought on Shields for $27 million of commitment over two and roughly two-thirds of a season. Or, if Shields has a strong finish to the season, he simply opts out at the end of the year. It does seem like $21 million might be hard for him to top on an annual basis going into a his age-35 season, but pitching costs are insane, etc.

To some degree, Shields is doomed to disappoint, because Chicago’s strongest vision of him are his dominant seasons where he convincingly masqueraded as a No. 1 starter for the Royals. He’s likely not that guy anymore, as San Diego has not agreed with him (an odd thing to note about any pitcher). His walk rate has nearly doubled since his last year in Kansas City (3.6 BB/9 since joining the Padres) and he has struggled to keep the ball in the yard despite playing in one of the most massive and home run unfriendly parks in the sport. His average velocity is down to roughly 90 mph and his strikeout rate is barely 20 percent, neither of which is unprecedented for his career, but neither will serve as great compensation for decline in other areas.

Shields has Mark Buehrle-like consistency benchmarks in his career. He is riding a streak of nine consecutive seasons with 200 innings or more and 10 victories or more. He is not Mat Latos, looking totally unlike himself after significant injury troubles, but a perennial fringe All-Star gliding into his decline. Or not quite gliding, since his 4.28 ERA is spiked by the Hall of Fame-shelling the Mariners doled out to him in his last time out, and the black mark on his resume got him personally called out by his owner. He had a 3.06 mark before that day, but his advanced metrics suggested his regression was coming.

Without the benefit of watching his entire San Diego career, the PECOTA projection for the rest of his season is soaking up roughly 120 innings at 3.88 ERA, and that sounds fair, especially if we assess Shields to be a declining but steady vet who will be invigorated to play in a division race, work with Don Cooper, and be backed by a good outfield defense. If Carlos Rodon is one version of a No. 3/4 starter–the super-talented but inconsistent youngster whose performance finds the midpoint between All-Star potential and frustrating struggles–Shields is the other, a veteran with a lowered ceiling and abilities who can still soak up tons of innings and decrease the pressure on the bullpen.

Miguel Gonzalez appears to be headed to that bullpen as a result of Shields’ arrival, and while he would probably be my choice to stick in the rotation, his flashes of competence have not been steady enough to qualify this as an injustice. His stuff has a much better chance of playing up in short bursts than Latos, and it’s not like the bullpen couldn’t use someone who generates actual strikeouts. The Sox rotation will now be rolling the dice one time out of five rather than two.

Rare is the trade where the upgrade matches the name value of the players involved, and the twilight days of Shields are not going to vault the Sox into some ‘Triple Aces’ pantheon of great rotations, but he’s a clear upgrade over the twilight days of Latos and Gonzalez. This is a needed improvement that Rick Hahn has again been able to swing without significantly weakening the future of the organization. They probably need a couple more–which Hahn has acknowledged–and with nearly all of their April gains ceded, it will be a fair post-mortem question whether it came too late.

But good work is good work, and the Sox have a better chance of pulling themselves off the mat than they did on Friday.

While Shields hasn’t been the star pitcher he was when he was with Tampa Bay and Kansas City since signing with San Diego in the 2014-15 offseason, he is on pace for his 10th straight 200 IP season this year, and represents a very dependable upgrade over whichever of Mat Latos or Miguel Gonzalez he will be replacing. At his reported price, this appears to be a very nice deal for the White Sox despite the obvious drawbacks — Shields has allowed a MLB high 42 home runs in 44 starts since the start of the 2015 season while playing half his games in a massive ballpark.

The White Sox likely will now look to fill other holes, which hypothetically could be part of this deal as well. The NL West bottom feeders have a decent glut of players who may be usable to the White Sox at the right price, including Derek Norris, Melvin Upton, Jon Jay and Matt Kemp. Whether such players would be involved in the Shields trade is unknown at this time.

Shields was slated to start tomorrow for the Padres, so likely now will be ready to slot right into the White Sox rotation and replace Latos or Gonzalez, who are set to pitch Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

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If there is one thing Matt Kemp can still do well, it’s hit a baseball with a wooden stick. Over the last two and a quarter years, Kemp has hit to the tune of a robust .277/.327/.482 slash line and a corresponding TAv of .291, well above the league average mark of .260. As of right now, there is only one player on the White Sox with a better TAv for this season, Brett Lawrie at .302, and he almost definitely won’t maintain that production for a whole season. And while there’s great reason to think that Jose Abreu will rebound and possibly boast a better offensive slash line and TAv, there’s a very real chance that Kemp would come to the White Sox and immediately be their best offensive player, which would no doubt be a gigantic boost to an offense that certainly needs it.

While much has been made of the White Sox desire to acquire a left handed bat, the White Sox have actually been more effective against right handed pitching this season with a .691 OPS against righties and a .684 OPS against lefties. At this point, more offense really trumps the handedness of the batter and Kemp would obviously still improve the offense against righties too, as he would most likely be replacing Avisail Garcia (who I’d suggest the White Sox include in a trade offer for Kemp) and his multi-year TAv of .232 against right-handed pitching.

But what really makes Kemp the ideal trade target for the White Sox is his production versus acquisition cost relative to the other alternatives out there. Kemp was acquired last offseason by the Padres as part of AJ Preller’s aggressive moves to make the Padres great again!

At the time of acquisition, Kemp was owed $107 million by his then current employer the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers volunteered $32 million, $18 million of which came in 2015, to the Padres to help cover Kemp’s financial burden and facilitate the deal. Preller’s moves would fall flat as the Padres failed to win 75 games last season and now they currently sit in dead last in the NL west at 10-16. As most of the Dodgers’ financial help came last season, the Padres have now been saddled with essentially a four-year, $72 million contract for an aging slugger that the team clearly has no use for.

Since the Padres have been notoriously cheap since they came into existence as a franchise, there is obvious financial incentive for them to rid themselves of Kemp. In all likelihood, this means the White Sox could acquire Kemp for no significant assets if they’re just willing to take on the entirety of the Matt Kemp contract, which they absolutely should be.

The White Sox received a $13 million lifeboat earlier this year from the retirement of Adam LaRoche. Roughly one-sixth of the season has expired which means Kemp is effectively due $15 million the rest of the year, and that total decreasing every passing game. At this point, acquiring Kemp is no greater a financial burden for the 2016 season than having Adam LaRoche was, so it would stand to reason that the White Sox would be willing to take on all of Kemp’s salary in 2016 without issue.

The White Sox will also no longer have the contract of John Danks around in 2017, which, again in theory, would mean that the team would be capable of absorbing Kemp’s contract next season also without issue. You could argue that the White Sox would not want Kemp’s contract in 2018 and 2019 and you’d absolutely be correct, but right now being saddled with an albatross contract in two years, when the White Sox have less than $50 million in total guaranteed salary committed for each year, is a burden the team must be willing to bear, especially during the team’s best chance at the postseason since 2012.

The other alternatives aren’t exactly enticing either. The White Sox could have the Padres absorb more of the contract, which means an increase in prospect cost. Or they could trade for a player like Carlos Gonzalez who only has two remaining years but has more trade value, which also means an increase in prospect cost, or trade for another less productive bat like Jay Bruce, which.. yuck.

The White Sox don’t have the prospects for another big trade unless they’re willing to part with either Tim Anderson or Carson Fulmer, which probably isn’t a great idea for the White Sox in the long-term. The farm system is thinned out free agency hampered the 2015 draft and the Todd Frazier trade this winter. The best asset the White Sox have is financial flexibility, and they should use as much of it as they can to increase both the short-term and long-term outlook of the franchise.

After all factors are considered, I believe Kemp is the most logical and realistic target, as emphasizing salary relief can really serve to minimize the prospect package going out west in return. I certainly hope the White Sox front office is aggressive and Tuesday’s news about Danks suggests just that, so ideally it’s only a matter of time before Kemp is a White Sox. Sock? Socks? Who cares as long as he slugs some dingers?

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