The biggest difference, thought, between Anderson’s frustrating, replacement-level 2017 and this year, when he posted a career-high 3.0 WARP, is defense. For two years now, Anderson has been the type of raw-but-toolsy type who is easy to get excited about, but with enough deficiencies on both sides of the ball to ever live up to his potential. He is still that, but the incremental improvements he’s made since being thrust into an ill-fated attempt at contention in 2016 make it easy to be more optimistic than ever that he is the White Sox shortstop of the future.

And it’s the word shortstop that is the key there, because even the staunchest Anderson believers outside of the organization over the last couple of years have wondered aloud if his future was truly at the position, and the type of offensive production he’s shown is much more playable and enticing if he’s someone who can be trusted defensively at such an important position.

The results are in the numbers. BP’s defensive metric, FRAA, had Anderson at -11.7 last season after a -4.7 showing in his debut season. This year? 9.1, good for fourth best among shortstops. Anderson himself has attributed the improvement — which didn’t really start rounding into shape until a rocky first few months — was more about confidence than anything else. It’s good, and coupled with solid power for the position, tolerable offensive numbers, and above-average base running, you’ve got yourself an everyday starting shortstop.

Something that’s been brought up time and time and against since Anderson was drafted is how new he is to baseball. He’s less new with each passing year, of course, but one of the more interesting developments to follow with players like him are less quantifiable aspects like work ethic and focused efforts to improve perceived weaknesses. That’s something we’ve seen. Some have been incremental, like the walk rate — nobody will ever mistake him for Tony Gwynn — but for a player who’s still just 25, the improvements there, at the plate as a whole, and most specifically defensively, are legitimate positive signs of growth.

Not a lot went right for the 2018 White Sox, but the progress from the young shortstop with a world of skills isn’t one of them. He may never be a star, but after a season like he just had, it’s reasonable to be more confident than ever that he’ll be at shortstop for the White Sox for the foreseeable future.

Lead Photo Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

Lead Photo Credit: Jim Young-USA TODAY Sports

The most obvious example of this was the trade that brought Adam Eaton to Chicago. The White Sox, long known for their successes developing starting pitching, traded one of those developmental successes, former 30th round draft pick Hector Santiago, to bring in an outfielder who had already been fully developed in Arizona.

As the White Sox transitioned into rebuild mode, acquisitions like Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez weren’t exactly “ready-made” players, but hitters who were premium enough that it was (or is, in Jimenez’s case) more about getting more reps before being major league ready than anything specific in their development.

The White Sox have taken measures, as detailed in the above link, to streamline their hitter development, and the dividends thus far have been in the form of Tim Anderson fulfilling, at least thus far, more or less what they hoped he’d become. There are other lesser development triumphs, such as Yolmer Sanchez or Leury Garcia. Nicky Delmonico’s 2016 emergence, as fleeting as it might prove to be, is something you’d more likely expect from an organization like the Cardinals or Dodgers than the White Sox. Likewise, players like Marcus Semien and Tyler Flowers, who spent the better part of the developmental stages of their careers, have blossomed into useful players, although it’s unclear how much the White Sox had to do with either cases.

The rebuild becoming successful is going to be based primarily on the White Sox top prospects living up to their potential. Moncada, Jimenez, and the glut of young pitchers both at the major and minor league levels panning out will be the biggest factor in the White Sox snapping their long playoff drought sometime in the near future. Of course, ownership proving it’s willing to open its wallet for premiere free agents to supplement said roster should it come to fruition will be important in filling roster holes as they emerge, too.

But while the White Sox path toward future contention has primarily centered around a group of top-level arms and two top-tier hitters, proving the advancements they’ve made in hitter development will go a long way toward not only contention in 2020 or so, but sustaining that success long term. While not top-tier prospects like Moncada or Jimenez, there’s a group of talented but volatile hitters whose development is integral in them doing just that.

That group includes the likes of Luis Robert, Zack Collins and Blake Rutherford, but also Micker Adolfo, Luis Alexander Basabe, Seby Zavala, Gavin Sheets, and a few others you could convince me to mention. Jake Burger, of course as well, but his last few months has zapped a lot of that hope for the time being.

Some of these prospects have a better chance that others, but the point is that while Moncada, Jimenez, and the arms are the biggest keys in building the team the White Sox hope to have, some of that next tier becoming major leaguers is a big factor, as well.

Not every player in a contending team’s lineup is a superstar. But every contending team features a stable of capable players able to produce. The White Sox have a few players with star potential, and a whole stable of them who could become the latter. Hitting development has been a sore spot for a while, but has made great strides in recent years. Just how far they’ve come will be determined over the next few years.

Lead Photo Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

A .237/.298/.432 line doesn’t jump out at you.  I suppose if an elite defensive catcher hit like that he’d be an All Star, but Anderson remains a range-y, cannon-armed, gaffe-prone shortstop.  The metrics on his glove vary (FRAA hates him, UZR loves him) but to my eyes its the same profile as it has been for some time: he is a plus defender if he cuts the errors down.  Easier said than done, of course, but his glove is serviceable at present if not an asset and there’s no visibly discernible reason he cannot get better.  That said, there’s reason for a lot of optimism in that batting line if you dig a little deeper, though.

For starters, his power is legit, with a career-high .194 ISO coming in a season where he’s been hitting in frigid weather and the balls are reportedly no longer juiced.  And, while he hasn’t done the historic volte face as Matt Davidson in terms of turning around his zone control, he’s made real gains in that area all the same in 2018.  After registering K/BB percentages of 27.1/3.0 and 26.7/2.1 in 2016 and 2017 respectively, so far he is at a very respectable 23.0/7.9 this year.  For reference, Anderson’s BB% was the worst in the majors last year, below even Alcides Escobar and Brandon Phillips.  While 7.9 is hardly Vottovian, last year it would have registered somewhere between good hitters like Robinson Cano and Jose Ramirez.  So far, major league hitters are collectively striking out at a 22.6% clip against an 8.9% walk rate.  Meaning, Anderson–a super toolsy, potentially plus defensive shortstop with power and speed–has gone from The Worst Zone Control to League Average.

That’s huge.

As it stands now, he’s roughly a league average hitter who can handle shortstop and might be good there…and that’s while getting unlucky.  Armchair analysts frequently oversimplify and overuse BABIP as a 100% proxy for luck.  As years have gone on, we’ve learned more and more about pitchers’ and hitters’ disparate abilities to “deserve” better or worse fortune on balls in play.  But even with that caveat, a player as fast as Anderson who is hardly all pop-ups and dingers should be comfortably 30-40 points above his current .268 BABIP.  Meaning his line could look more like .260/.325/.460 with even modest fortune on batted balls.

Throw in his elite baserunning — Baseball Prospectus’ metric has him tied for eighth in all of baseball in terms of value added on the base paths, which includes more than just stolen bases — and this is already a roughly league average player and maybe a little better at a valuable position.  That’s without him doing anything more than he already is.  And, as is apparent from the stat sheet and the eye test, there’s room for more here.

To see how important being able to get solid regulars from your first round picks, look no further than the White Sox from 2008-2016.  The justification for teams to “tank” is to find stars at the top of the draft.  The White Sox didn’t do that, but they did manage to find their stars anyway — Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu, and Adam Eaton are or were varying degrees of star players.  The White Sox of that era failed because they could not develop a reasonable supporting cast internally, instead spending all of their free agent money acquiring solid-ish players like Melky Cabrera and David Robertson.  If you have a pipeline of that talent from within, you can spend you money on more impactful talents than merely patching holes.

Photo credit: David Banks- USA Today

As you’ve surely seen, heard, and/or read about by now, the benches cleared during Saturday’s White Sox game in Kansas City because Perez took umbrage to Tim Anderson being excited about hitting a leadoff homerun. Yes, you read that correctly. Salvador Perez, member of the 2014 & 2015 scraptastic celebration-addict Royals was mad about a player being happy. Here are the key quotes about it courtesy of editor emeritus James Fegan:

“He did it Opening Day, too,” Perez said. “The same thing. Said a bad word. He didn’t even play in a fucking playoff game. He doesn’t know about getting excited. You have to be in playoffs to get excited, win a World Series, to get excited. That’s a game. That’s a simple game. That’s the second time I said something to him. The first time I saw it I was on the DL. He do it again and I have the opportunity to say something to him again.”

“I’ve hit some homers, too,” Perez said. “I keep running the bases. I don’t get loud like you. That’s the only thing I tell him. Keep doing what you’re doing, bro. Have fun. It’s a game, you know, but respect my team. That’s it. He was mad about that.”

What.

Baseball will forever have some of the dumbest unwritten rules because traditions exist and the vast majority of them are pointless and ridiculous. But man, the hypocrisy of this coming from one of the key players in the Kansas City Royals Handjive Brigade is downright comical. The 2014 and 2015 Royals were maybe the most exuberant and demonstrative baseball team I can ever remember watching. They celebrated everything. Homerun? Trots and dugout dances. Hit a double? Elaborate hand gestures to the dugout. Eked out a single? Clap until your hands bleed. Strike someone out? Jaw at them the entire walk back to the dugout. And if the other team didn’t like it, you could always just get into a fight with them like the Royals did multiple times.

Anderson is happy again and it’s great to see. He’s rebounding nicely from last year’s awfulness and isn’t afraid to show his elation on the field. That’s going to rub some teams the wrong way and to an extent, I guess I get it. But if you spent multiple years defending Yordano Ventura’s attitude and antics, you absolutely forfeit all rights to tell players from other teams to calm down and play the game the right way.

Photo credit: Peter G Aiken

1. Yoan Moncada went 8-for-23 with a homer over the weekend, and going back even further, has gotten at least one hit in eight of his last nine games, raising his OPS from .724 to .887 over that span.

One of the theories that had been held throughout his debut season and during his sluggish first few weeks of 2018 is that Moncada’s passivity at the plate could be a hinderance. He’s already established a keen eye, but the selectivity was such that he’d often find himself behind in the count waiting for that perfect pitch. As you might expect, the league as a whole generally performs well when swinging at the first pitch, and even better when ahead in the count. Through Saturday, Moncada is 8-for-11 when putting the ball in play on the first pitch, and 17-for-28 when he does so on the first pitch or second pitch. Of his eight hits against the Royals, five came in those situations.

The sample size here is obviously small, and again, the league as a whole performs at an above-average rate in any of those three situations, but selective aggression obviously works in his favor. There was never much of a worry about Moncada during his slow start, but the last week-plus has been a good showcase of what kind of hitter he is likely to become.

2. A White Sox rotation that was already being held together by scotch tape was in flux for most of the weekend with Miguel Gonzalez disabled and a doubleheader Saturday. Extra innings on Friday meant the White Sox would go into the latter three games of the series with one shaky member of the rotation and the equivalent of two bullpen games while they trudged on, lacking an off day since April 19.

Carson Fulmer helped alleviate those woes a bit in the first game Saturday, turning in his strongest outing of the season with six shutout innings. With two straight quality outings, he’s rebounded quite nicely from back-to-back starts where he failed to make it through two innings, and somehow finds himself with a more-respectable-than-expected 4.32 ERA. The advanced stats say Fulmer’s gotten by mostly on luck in the last two outings, as he’s induced just six swinging strikes in his last two outings, and his DRA is an ungodly 10.66. Still, he’s throwing strikes, inducing weak contact, and providing some aid for a beat-up pitching staff. Some progress is better than no progress.

3. Yes, it was five games against the Royals, but the pitching staff as a whole showed signs of progress over the weekend. Lucas Giolito still isn’t missing bats like he did in the spring, but he battled through 5 2/3 innings in Thursday’s win, allowing just two earned runs. His K/BB is still an abysmal 11/21, but he generated eight swinging strikes against a lineup that, despite its futility, still ranks best in the league in strikeout percentage. Baby steps.

Reynaldo Lopez gave up 10 hits and only struck out two in his 6 1/3 innings of work Friday, but more importantly walked zero and got 10 swinging strikes in his 94 pitches. White Sox pitching as a whole is striking out fewer batters per nine than every team in baseball save these Royals, and are conversely walking more batters per nine than every team except the Braves. Their K/BB over this five-game series was 29/17, which is still pretty bad but a step in the right direction. (And that includes Saturday’s Dylan Covey start that featured seven walks).

4. Tim Anderson is getting in the habit of ruffling feathers. After last year’s dust-up with Marcus Stroman and rubbing Justin Verlander the wrong way with a stolen base a few weeks ago, a perceived slight after a home run led to some exchanged words with Salvador Perez and a brief clearing of the benches in the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader.

At the risk of being perceived as biased (I am), the White Sox are on the right side of this one. Anderson himself put it about as perfectly as possible.

“They’re trying to take the fun out of baseball,” Anderson said. “This game is fun, and I went through too much last year to not have fun. I’m having fun this year. It’s exciting and I’m going to continue to be me. I’m playing this game and being me, and that’s fun.”

Anderson becoming the regular source of ire among White Sox opponents is an unexpected twist, considering his genuinely cheery attitude as well as his general anonymity as a yet-established player on an otherwise bad team. But Anderson is performing well right now — a .278/.327/.454 line with four home runs, eight stolen bases, and more than half of 2017’s walk total is a solid start — means we’ll hopefully see more of his expressing pleasure at playing baseball well going forward.

5. Oh yeah, Matt Davidson. After four more home runs at Kauffman Stadium, he’s up to nine and still slugging .619 a month into the season. And after drawing two more Sunday, he’s up to 15 walks on the season after 19 all of last season.

I still don’t know what Davidson is going to become as a player, but his pedigree and early-season success leaves room for hope of him becoming an above-average contributor going forward.

Lead Photo Credit: Peter G. Aiken/USA TODAY Sports

If you’re reading this, surely you know about Anderson’s struggles both on and off the field in 2017 and how more likely than not, the horrible personal issues he endured affected his play. His 17 home runs and 15 steals in 16 attempts were great, but only if you were willing to ignore the 162:13 K:BB and the .679 OPS. But it was a lost season with unforeseeable mitigating factors and it’s in the past. What’s important now is the present and the future.

Yes, it’s only been nine games and small sample size caveats obviously apply but we’re 5.5 percent of the way through the season so I’d like to think we can start making observations about potential trends based on noticeable changes. The main one that you can see without numbers? Anderson actually seems happy again. He’s smiling. He’s hugging Daryl Boston at first base after drawing walks (which he’s already drawn four of this year, putting him only nine away from tying his career high for a season … and we’re only nine games in). The players aren’t automatons and it’s pretty great getting to watch someone enjoy their dream job again.

And then there’s the game-related changes. Anderson’s most impressive skill has always been his speed and he’s made a renewed commitment to getting as much production out of his legs as possible this season, and so far the results have been great. Five successful stolen bases in just as many attempts has him on pace to set a new career high in that category as well. He’s already hit three home runs despite having yet to play a game in temperatures even the most charitable among us would describe as warm. His BABIP is in line with his career norms, so we’re not watching fluky hit luck. We’re seeing what could very well be sustainable changes that would make Anderson into the franchise player the Sox have been hoping he’d become since drafting him. It’s going to be fun seeing if it holds up.

Lead Photo Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

As much as the White Sox promise to be more entertaining, these things are going to happen. As I wrote Thursday, the construction of this bullpen was both admirable and reasonable. For one, the White Sox jettisoned David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Anthony Swarzak, Dan Jennings, and maybe even a few I’m forgetting in a series of trades last summer. For two, given the current window of non-competitiveness, spending more than necessary for a more talented bullpen would be illogical.

What we’re left with is a mixed bag of sorts. Despite Thursday’s events, Jones and Soria represent the two best options, regardless of how they’re deployed. Beyond those two, there’s an assortment of veteran castoffs (Danny Farquhar, Hector Santiago, Luis Avilan), young, unproven talents (Aaron Bummer), and guys trying to prove they belong at the major league level (Greg Infante, Juan Minaya).

There’s enough talent throughout, particularly at the back end, for the White Sox to feign competence more often than not. But it’s not impenetrable, so things like Thursday are going to happen.

2. HAD the White Sox closed out Thursday’s win, the story would have been an impressive offensive performance by an assemblage of less-than-proven regulars. Yolmer Sanchez went 3-for-5 with a pair of triples, Matt Davidson had a rare two-hit performance where neither ball left the premises, and both he and Tim Anderson walked twice. Anderson stole his fourth base of the season, and the Garcias, Avisail and Leury had two hits each.

The weather outside was not ripe for run scoring, and after several dinger-fueled performances to open the season, the White Sox stringing together multiple hits was … different. The competition wasn’t exactly menacing — Jordan Zimmermann was hittable, to say the least. But the likes of Sanchez, Davidson, and Anderson hitting as they have in the season’s opening week is better than them not.

3. Speaking of Zimmermann, Thursday’s pitching matchup between him and James Shields was as unattractive as the weather unless you took a time machine back to 2013. Shields labored kinda sorta around the zone for most of the afternoon, surviving five innings with just three runs allowed. The last batter he faced doubled as the first strikeout he recorded this season, getting James McCann on a knuckle-curve in the dirt.

Every Shields start is going to be an adventure for as long as he sticks around in the rotation — there’s certainly no end coming soon — but for the second straight start he lasted juuuust long enough to give the White Sox a chance. An admirable trait, no doubt.

4. The White Sox offense, as I mentioned, looked good in Thursday’s loss, but that does not apply to Yoan Moncada, who finished 0-for-6 with four strikeouts. (Tigers pitching struck out 12, including an impressive six by Daniel Norris in 3 1/3 innings of relief).

There’s been some consternation about Moncada’s batting line, even just six games in, considering what it looked like in his debut last year. It’s difficult to worry, though, because it’s only been six games and because he continues to look good at the plate, despite the results. Maybe there will be a day down the road where Moncada’s performance will begin to bring pause that he’s not going to become the player the White Sox hope he can be. That day is not today.

5. Zimmermann-Shields is a pitching matchup for masochists, while Saturday’s Michael Fulmer-Lucas Giolito showdown is much more appetizing. The 25-year-old Fulmer has emerged as a reliable starter for the Tigers over the last two starts, and will undoubtedly find his name in trade rumors as the months go by the Detroit falls farther out of the race.

We know about Giolito, of course, but seeing how he bounces back from a subpar debut against the Royals will be worth watching.

Lead Photo Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

It doesn’t matter. We know in our well-conditioned brain that in a few weeks or a month, what happened Thursday isn’t going to be fresh in our memories, and there’s a good chance whatever the outcomes of those games are going to have very little bearing on how these teams and players are performing in Game 31 or 62 or 100. But we react to the good and the bad with a level of excitement that isn’t seen for most median regular season games, because it’s Opening Day. It’s exciting. After five months, baseball games matter again.

The White Sox 14-7 victory over the Royals didn’t follow any typical script. The White Sox hit six home runs — three by Matt Davidson, two by Tim Anderson, and one by Jose Abreu — in coming back from an early 4-0 deficit to wallop a division rival. All three of Davidson’s bombs registered at a higher mph than any one he hit last season, per Statcast, and he became the first player in the Statcast era to hit three home runs that all registered faster than 110 mph.

It was the kind of performance that’s easy to dream on. No, the White Sox are going to average 14 runs per game. They probably won’t set a major league record for home runs in a season. And I’m not holding my breath waiting for the next time James Shields goes through a stretch of retiring 16 of 18 batters without allowing a base hit in that span. But it’s the only game in which we have to judge, and for one game, the White Sox were both victorious and fun as hell.

2. Just as we overreact to the good, we overreact to the bad, and Shields getting tagged with four runs before recording an out zapped the Opening Day excitement almost immediately, as we were quickly hit with the harsh realization that, yes, baseball is back, but the struggles that have made Shields a shell of the pitcher he once was were still there.

Shields bounced back, as I mentioned, but he did not get out of the final five innings unscathed without a bit of luck. He generated just four swinging strikes all afternoon and zero strikeouts. In fact, White Sox pitching didn’t record its first strikeout until Luis Avilan got Jorge Soler swinging in the eighth inning. Still, after that first inning, the Royals didn’t generate much hard contact. They put seven balls in play with an exit velocity of 100 mph or more, according to Statcast, and five of those came during the first inning.

Shields is going to be walking a tight rope between competence and combustion all season long. Getting through 6 innings was a coup for the White Sox considering the first inning, but one would imagine the batted ball luck and run support won’t always be there.

3. The five combined homers by Davidson and Anderson were the obvious highlights in the 14-run explosion. Davidson’s power isn’t surprising, but a strong start to the season would be a boost for a player who is undoubtedly trying to prove he belongs on a major league roster. Davidson could hit 40 home runs this year, as Paul Konerko has said, but for someone who won’t provide much if any value defensively, the key for him will be evolving his skills beyond that prodigious power. We’re talking, after all, about a player who was a net negative across the board last season despite 26 home runs in 443 plate appearances.

Davidson had two plate appearances Thursday in which he didn’t leave the yard. In his first at-bat, he worked the count full (good) before swinging at two pitches that would’ve been ball four (bad), ultimately flying out to right field. In the other, he watched six straight pitches and drew a walk. Having at-bats like that, to go along with the power, will go a long way for a player whose 4.3 percent walk rate would’ve ranked in the bottom 10 in the league last season if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.

4. Speaking of walks, Anderson took one as well in one of his three plate appearances where he failed to dinger. Even more than Davidson, the base on balls is noteworthy for a player who walked just 2.1 percent of the time last season, dead last in the majors. Anderson didn’t draw his first walk last season until the ninth game of the season and drew just 13 total in 606 plate appearances.

Unlike Davidson, success for Anderson isn’t wholly dependent on the 24-year-old turning into a more patient hitter. His two homers Thursday were a good sign, as him living up to his power potential combined with his speed and hopefully improved defense at a key position (he was initially charged with an error on a tough play in the first inning but it was later turned to a hit) would make him a valuable player even if he always hovers near the bottom of the league in walk rate.

5. The White Sox drew seven walks Thursday, including two each from Nicky Delmonico and Adam Engel, the latter of whom added two hits on the day. Those two, along with Davidson and Yolmer Sanchez, are the White Sox biggest question marks from a positional standpoint this year, so a good start (I know, it’s one game) is good to see.

But in general, the White Sox taking walks is a welcome sight. They were 28th in walk rate a year ago, ranking slightly ahead of Detroit and Baltimore in that department. Danny Duffy and the Royals’ bevy of anonymous relievers isn’t exactly the stiffest competition, but the White Sox showing more patience as a whole — not just Davidson and Anderson — would be considered a big step forward for a team still ripe with developing young players.

Lead Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

You can view the full projections over at Baseball Prospectus, and the work that goes into them always make it worth your while, but let’s dive into some of the more noteworthy projections PECOTA has for the team in 2018.

The Record

PECOTA projects the White Sox will win 73 games in 2018, a reasonable estimation that would represent a six-win jump from a year ago. There’s been a decent amount of “can the White Sox be the surprise team of 2018?” buzz over the last few weeks, and while that’s far from an absurd notion, a modest improvement seems more reasonable.

The Players: Good

The White Sox Team Audit page is worth a gander, and when looking at playing time and statistical projections throughout the roster, it’s easy for certain things to jump out.

Jose Abreu (.289/.348/.504, 3.1 WARP) projects to be the White Sox most valuable player, which is far from surprising. Still, as he enters his early 30s, the fact that regression isn’t expected is a positive sign.

Carlos Rodon (131 IP, 3.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 145 K, 51 BB, 2.3 WARP) is No. 2 to Abreu, which is logical until you factor in the injury concerns. Rodon was on a lot of “breakout star” lists pre-2017, and while the injuries remain a concern entering 2018, when he’s been on the mound, he’s been good, and PECOTA sees that. 131 innings would be double his 2017 total, but still lower than anyone would like. You can fill a many large, leather-bound books with names of pitchers whose downfalls were entirely related to their inability to stay healthy, but with Rodon, the fact remains that when he’s healthy, he’s continued to show the ability to reach his heights as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Nicky Delmonico (.246/.323/.434, 1.6 WARP) is perhaps still graded on a curve based on where he was a year ago (he wasn’t mentioned even once among the several hundred reviewed in the 2017 Baseball Prospectus Annual) and that makes these somewhat modest projections pleasing. Sure, the triple slash doesn’t match up with his surprising 43-game sample a year ago, but those numbers are more than acceptable from a four-corners player picked up off the trash heap.

Tim Anderson (.265/.289/.408, 0.4 WARP) had a dreadful 2017, both on and off the field, and while these projections don’t exactly have you jumping for joy, all three numbers represent a modest jump in his numbers. And, at the very least, PECOTA believes the power is real, which isn’t nothing for a middle infielder.

The Players: Bad

PECOTA is basically the numerical representation of every one of us throughout 2017 in saying “Prove It Again” to Avisail Garcia (.275/.329/.427, 1.6 WARP). The projection for Garcia is a far cry from the .886 OPS and 3.7 WARP he put up a year ago, but it’s easy to see why. The .392 BABIP in 2017 and more than 1,500 below-average plate appearances prior to last season bring plenty of room for pessimism he can keep it up for a second year in a row. Regression is expected, whether or not it will be as much as PECOTA says is to be determined.

Leury Garcia (.248/.292/.374, 0.0 WARP) is a personal favorite of yours truly (as well as my co-EIC Nick Beeps) so while his projecting as nothing more than a replacement-level player is disheartening, if not understandable. Garcia played like an first division starting center fielder for the first half of 2017, but injuries and poor play zapped a lot of that optimism down the stretch. Garcia is versatile enough to be given a chance as a utility player, if not a starter, and like his surname counterpart in right field, he’ll likely get plenty of opportunities to “prove it” again in 2018.

It’s hardly worth mentioning James Shields (189 IP, 5.42 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 159 K, 86 BB, -0.7 WARP) or Miguel Gonzalez (137 IP, 5.39 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 99 K, 53 BB, -0.4 WARP) as their jobs are simply to eat innings between the ones that are going to the interesting long-term pieces. Still, it would be preferable if one or both is competent enough to be able to run out there every fifth day.

Oh yeah, the young guys!

Yoan Moncada (.233/.330/.410, 2.1 WARP)
Lucas Giolito (160 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 163 K, 67 BB, 1.3 WARP)
Reynaldo Lopez (108 IP, 4.90 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 109 K, 43 BB, 0.3 WARP)

Players like these three are complicated in how PECOTA views them. All three are somewhat underwhelming but also not altogether disappointing. But it’s important to remember that what they’ve done during their limited time in the majors has at least some impact on how they are viewed. PECOTA doesn’t know that Moncada is a mega-super-ultra stud prospect whose built like a middle linebacker. It knows that Moncada hit only .231 a year ago despite a .325 BABIP. It doesn’t know that Giolito got an OFP of 8 from our prospect team once upon a time, it knows that he flashed good but inconsistent over the last year, and it doesn’t know that, in 2017, Lopez … well, I don’t really know how to describe what we saw from Lopez last year, either.

So while these numbers may be a bit disheartening when you consider that they’re the three Opening Day players most important to the White Sox future, these 50th percentile projections are not necessarily doom-and-gloom, and if they outpace them in 2018, it just spells better things to come in the future.

Lead Photo Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports