Castillo has always been a pretty decent hitter for a catcher (100 OPS+ for his career) and his bat would certainly bring some needed pop to an otherwise anemic White Sox lineup, but perhaps the main reason he was brought aboard was that he somehow at the age of 30 developed into a pretty good pitch framer for the Baltimore Orioles. And when one of your key goals for the season is to develop a young pitching staff you hope will be able to eventually lead your team to glory, someone who is at worst average behind the plate is pretty useful. Any offense is just icing on the cake at that point.

Things were going pretty smoothly over the first two months with Castillo hitting .267/.309/.466 with six home runs all before Memorial Day. With how weak the crop of catchers in the American League was this year, it’s not unreasonable to think Castillo might have found his way onto the All-Star team. If he hadn’t managed to catch an 80 game suspension for testing positive for erythropoietin in late May.

What had started as a fairly promising season turned into a very long unpaid vacation from June through August. Castillo looked understandably rusty when he returned on September 3, only managing a .571 OPS over his final 16 games and seeming to struggle tremendously to establish a rhythm and rapport with the pitching staff, especially Carlos Rodon. 2018 is definitely a season Castillo will want to put behind him, but with Omar Narvaez’s breakout season, only one year left on his deal, and the relentless dual marches of time and age it’s more than fair to wonder what 2019 will hold in store for him.

Lead Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

So what is EPO? Erythropoietin, or EPO for the rest of this article because that word is too much too type, is a hormone produced in the kidneys in direct response to hypoxia (lack of oxygen). EPO stimulates the bone marrow into overproducing red blood cells, which you may remember from childhood biology classes as the thing that gets oxygen where it needs to go in your body. In the most basic terms, EPO is made when your body realizes it is not getting enough oxygen so it makes more transportation for what oxygen you have. More red blood cells are produced and they manage to last longer before ultimately undergoing apoptosis (designed cell death).

Why would an athlete want to use this? If you’re reading this, you’ve probably heard of blood doping before. That’s what EPO use is. The entire point of using it is too help combat fatigue and attempt to increase the efficiency at which your body can use oxygen. EPO is generally thought of as a drug used (illegally) by cyclists, marathoners, triathletes, and race horses. Athletes who are undergoing strenuous and physically grueling tests of strength and endurance where being even slightly less exhausted than the next competitor can have tremendous benefits.

Sound like something a person whose job is to crouch for three or so hours a night four to five times a week for half a year might be interested in? Imagine getting similar effects to greenies without having to worry about the jitters and tachycardia (increased heart rate) that comes with amphetamines. Pretty enticing, right? Well, EPO isn’t exactly harmless. A pretty severe adverse effect can be increased viscosity (thickness) of the blood, resulting in cardiac arrest and infarctions. It’s also an insanely easy drug to test for as the synthetic version (generally used to treat anemics and chemo patients) has a markedly different physical composition and would not be found in any tainted samples you could hope to blame for the failed test. It’s a risky drug both from a physical safety standpoint and a trying to get away with it one. Hopefully the 80 games off gives Castillo enough of a rest that he does not feel the need to play with such fire again any time soon.

Lead Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

I’ll save the hand-wringing over the integrity and morality of Castillo’s deed for those who feel more inclined (although Rosenthal also confirmed the suspension is not for a steroid), but assuming MLB confirms the suspension Thursday, the White Sox will essentially be right back where they were prior to Castillo’s signing — with a glaring black hole behind the plate.

Omar Narvaez, who was more or less than starting catcher throughout 2017, is better served as a backup catcher (if that), and what he brought to the table last season (on-base skills) hasn’t carried over to his part-time work this year. Narvaez is hitting .180/.275/.246 through 70 plate appearances with twice as many strikeouts as walks. Castillo’s defensive numbers, which have dipped this year after a career-year in 2017, were more palatable considering the plus offensive skills he provided. Narvaez provides none of that, and poor defensive skills to boot. In his limited action, he ranks last in the majors in FRAA_ADJ at -5.7. And while he has thrown out 31 percent of attempted base stealers, he leads the league in passed balls allowed.

Behind Narvaez will presumably be a familiar face in Kevan Smith. The 29-year-old, who spent a majority of last season with the White Sox, was just placed on the minor league 7-day disabled list, although the severity of the injury is unknown. Smith provides a bit more offense than Narvaez, and has also received glowing reviews from pitchers for his game calling in the past, but features the same defensive shortcomings.

Outside of those two, there aren’t a lot of options. The only other catcher on the 40-man roster is Alfredo Gonzalez, who has received glowing reviews for his framing throughout his minor league career, but is a career .233/.319/.304 hitter at the minor league level, including .169/.278/.191 thus far this season with Triple-A Charlotte. The other catcher on Charlotte’s roster, Brett Austin, was Carlos Rodon’s catcher at N.C. State but has garnered just five at-bats this season and is also currently on the disabled list. 39-year-old Carlos Ruiz and old friend Geovany Soto are free agent possibilities, but it’s unclear if there is any interest or if either would represent much of an upgrade over Narvaez and/or Smith.

What this means for Castillo’s future is perhaps even more unclear. When the White Sox signed him to a two year, $15 million deal with a team option for 2020 in the offseason, it was seen as a level-headed move for a stabilizing veteran meant to bridge the gap between the present and when Zack Collins was presumed ready to take over.

80 games is demoralizing for a team, not because they’re trying to contend, but because that stability is now lost. Castillo will presumably rejoin the team following the suspension and play out his contract in 2019, but what comes next for both him and the White Sox catching position is now up in the air.

Lead Photo Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

1. James Shields again finished the seventh inning, allowing only two runs.  He has gone at least five innings every outing this season, barring an extra-inning relief appearance, and has now gone at least six innings six starts in a row, with quality starts in five of those.  While the year is still most assuredly 2018 and not 2011, his DRA on the year sits at 4.73, and his cFIP of 101 are the peripherals of a below average innings eater.  None of this removes the sting of Fernando Tatis Jr. starting to nuke Double-A as a teenager for San Diego.  And, there is still risk for regression here, as his 5.6 percent HR/FB rate and .254 BABIP are on the lucky side.  That said, Shields deserves credit for continuing to make adjustments as he ages into his late 30s and the White Sox desperately need his ability to soak up innings at a credible rate.

2. The White Sox’ outfield situation is dire.  Avisail Garcia was awful and then injured, and is not expected back until the end of June.  Nicky Delmonico’s power evaporated and he will be on the disabled list for 4-6 weeks with a broken hand.  Adam Engel is hitting .183/.262/.229 and opposing managers are intentionally walking batters ahead of him because they realize he can’t hit.  Trayce Thompson is hitting .117/.145/.300.  Tyler Saladino was traded to Milwaukee.  Daniel Palka is hitting perfectly well, for the moment, but putting him in the outfield is … well, extremely detrimental to your run prevention.  We’re at the point where Leury Garcia is hands down the best all-around outfielder on the active roster.

Worse, the alternatives in Charlotte are no better. Charlie Tilson is finally healthy, but he is hitting .237/.279/.288 in Triple-A.  Understandable, perhaps, given how long he’s been out with various lower body injuries, but he’s not in a position to be called up.  Ryan Cordell is hurt again.  Jacob May had his first season in Triple-A in 2016 and hit .266/.309/.352.  He’s hit worse there each year since.

Everyone knows this year is not about major league wins and losses, but at a certain point a sub-.500 OPS from multiple outfield spots just isn’t tenable and isn’t fair to the fans or the rest of the roster.  They’ve brought in Michael Saunders, who was once an underrated and solid player, but has since been destroyed by knee injuries and hit poorly in Triple-A last year.  Presumably Eloy Jimenez and Garcia are intended to be two thirds of the outfield at some point in 2018, but it’s unclear how long you’ll have to wait to get there.  The more advanced outfielders in Double-A like Jameson Fisher and Tito Polo have not hit well enough to merit promotions to Charlotte, let alone to the majors.

Short of a trade, though, I’m not sure what else can be done in the meantime if they genuinely believe Jimenez isn’t ready.  I suppose Seth Smith is still out there?  Perhaps with Jose Rondon looking competent you can see why Rick Renteria is musing on moving Yolmer Sanchez to the outfield as an empty .270 from Rondon would be a huge upgrade on one of these glaringly deficient lineup spots.

3. Unlike the outfield, however, the bullpen has somewhat gratifyingly progressed through the process of shuffling through internal options.  Bruce Rondon is so far putting his name forward as the latest “Don Cooper Reclamation Success Story.”  The erstwhile Tigers Closer of the Future boasts a 2.74 DRA over his first 16 innings on the South Side of Chicago.  A 27-year-old flame-throwing reliever rounding into form is quite common.  Who knows? Maybe Bruce Rondon will be one of those players the rebuild yields due to having innings available rather than a high draft pick or obtained via trade.

Another big boost to the ‘pen has arrived in the form of Jace Fry, who has now thrown 8 1/3 innings while only allowing two walks so far this year.  Fry only converted to relief last year, and he struggled mightily in his first look at the majors.  He’s actually throwing his fastball slower than he did last year, but he’s throwing his slider a lot more — up from 6.45 to 33.64 percent from 2017 to 2018.  So far it’s working really, really well.

4. After a slow start, Welington Castillo is slowly rounding into the normal, power-heavy but above average catcher hitting line one might have expected, as he’s up to .270/.314/.477.  This is unsurprising.  However, 2017 represented a quantum leap in terms of his catcher defense, going from near the bottom of the barrel to well above average.  So far in 2018, he’s reverted back to his poor results.  An area worth monitoring on his BP player card as the season progresses.

Meanwhile, Omar Narvaez has not managed to improve his framing numbers at all, and so far his on-base heavy offense profile has also collapsed as his average has slid well below the Mendoza Line.  Still, with these two and Kevan Smith stashed in Charlotte, there are much better teams with far worse catching situations.

5.  A quick note: as I was digging around in the minor league stat lines, I noticed Ti’Quan Forbes.  The White Sox acquired this 2014 second round pick from the Rangers in August 2017 for Miguel Gonzalez.  However, coming into this season, he had yet to slug above .350 or post an OBP above .315 in two full seasons above Rookie Ball, and so I wrote him off as organizational depth.  But, it’s worth pointing out his 2018 has been a huge step forward, as he’s hitting .276/.343/.402 in High-A Winston-Salem.  He’s walking more and has slashed his strikeouts approximately 10-12 points from his track record, and is down to 12.6 percent on the young season.

The road is very long, and he may turn back into a pumpkin at any time, but he does not turn 22 until August and for the first time he’s showing signs of real progress, and perhaps there’s a major leaguer in here somewhere after all.

Lead Image Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Wins and losses don’t mean much this year but trolling the Twins is always worthwhile

— Nicky Beeps (@Nick_BPSS) May 4, 2018

1. We often get so caught up in who’s doing what and when and where in regards to the White Sox build toward contention that we don’t stop to appreciate a truly enjoyable game. Thursday’s 6-5 win over the Twins to open a six-game home stand was far from perfect, but when it comes to the aesthetic pleasure of watching your team win a game against a division foe, it was among the most satisfying of the season thus far. (Yes, I know there’s only been nine to choose from).

Just how satisfying was it?

Never change, @CarlosSan29. pic.twitter.com/LxUE0ypB87

— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) May 4, 2018

2. Trayce Thompson’s walk-off homer off Addison Reed capped a comeback from down 5-1 after just four innings. The offensive heroes were Thompson and Daniel Palka, the latter of whom the White Sox claimed off waivers over the offseason from Minnesota. Palka’s had an interesting start to his White Sox and major league career. The 26-year-old has been a free-swinger through his 24 plate appearances since replacing the disabled Avisail Garcia two weeks ago, showing he can do damage when he runs into a mistake. His solid if unspectacular track record in the minors shows enough promise, even if he’s older than most rookies, and the White Sox lack of ready-made outfielders in the minors until they decide Eloy Jimenez’s time has come means you can add him to the list of players looking to prove they’re of major league caliber going forward, whether it’s with the White Sox or not.

We know Thompson’s story already, but the walk-off shot came at a good time for a player who hasn’t exactly made the most of breath of fresh life his career was given when the White Sox re-acquired him a few weeks ago. The home run was his fifth hit since joining the White Sox, three of which have left the ballpark. Thompson, like Palka and a few others, is being given an opportunity that might not be afforded him on a team constructed a little differently, and with Nicky Delmonico’s slow start and Adam Engel’s offensive ineptitude, now is as good of a time as any for him to prove he belongs. Thursday’s home run was just a single shot at the most opportune of times, but it was a step in the right direction.

3. That the White Sox won despite their most consistent starting pitcher thus far having a rough night is a testament to both the offense, and Reynaldo Lopez readily admitted he didn’t have his best stuff on Thursday.

“I think that today none of my pitches were working as they were supposed to work,” López said through team interpreter Billy Russo. “It was a constant battle for me. I have to battle, I have to grind through it and I’m finding ways to just get an out. It was with all my pitches. Today it wasn’t my best stuff and it was a battle.”

A day after Lucas Giolito flipped the script on his walk-heavy April with seven strikeouts, Lopez turned in his second consecutive start where he simply wasn’t missing bats. He induced just two swinging strikes in his 83 pitches and a fastball that has sat 95 for most of the season averaged just 93 mph on the day.

Lopez has been something of an early-season revelation considering the questions about his viability as a starter as well as the struggles of the staff as a whole. We’ll see yet whether Thursday’s struggles were a blip or part of a long-term concern.

4. Waiting for the inevitable tide to turn on Matt Davidson’s hot start doesn’t have quite the same feel as when he did the same (and it never came) with Avisail Garcia a year ago. Davidson’s prospect pedigree and lack of a long-term opportunity to date make it entirely possible the hitter he’s been for the first five weeks of the season is close to the new norm for him. No, he’s probably not going to OPS close to 1.000 long term, but he’s only three walks away from matching last year’s season-long total, and had another two-hit game Thursday including a double that drove home the tying run.

We’ve said it on a number of occasions, but while Davidson’s strikeout numbers are always going to be hefty, him bringing it down just a smidge (he’s at 30 percent on the season after 37.3 percent a year ago) while upping the walk rate (8.3 percent compared to 5.9) and remaining powerful (you really need to numbers on this one?) will make him a much more valuable player than we ever would’ve imagined even a few months ago.

5. Welington Castillo was a late scratch on Thursday with what Rick Renteria said after the game was because of a ball he took to the “personal region of the body” last week. Given that Castillo was disables twice a year ago because of testicular injuries, one obviously hopes bad luck hasn’t struck the White Sox catcher twice. While Castillo’s defense hasn’t graded out particularly well thus far this season (he’s second worst in the league, per FRAA), Omar Narvaez’s defense also leaves a lot to desire, as evidenced by the pair of passed balls that aided the Twins’ first two runs of the game. Regardless, Castillo presents quite a bit more offensive upside than Narvaez, and while Kevan Smith is a capable injury fill-in if Castillo is forced to the disabled list, losing him for any amount of time would be a considerable blow.

Lead Photo Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

1. Fulmer was about as effective as hoped following a precarious spring. He sat 94 with his fastball and consistently threw both his changeup and cutter for strikes. The cutter, in particular, was working from the start. In the first inning, he struck out Justin Smoak on three pitches following his only walk of the game, and ended a first-and-third threat by getting Randall Grichuk chasing on a 2-2 cutter.

In all, he threw 48 of his 73 pitches for strikes, including 12 of 14 changeups and 14 of 16 cutters. Nine of those 26 strikes were of the swinging variety, according to Brooks Baseball, and three of his five strikeouts came swinging.

There was a reason Fulmer only threw 73 pitches, of course, as Rick Renteria had a quick hook following back-to-back hits — a Josh Donaldson single and Smoak double — to lead off the sixth. But, in general, the start was exactly what we saw out of Fulmer at the end of last season, only against real professional hitters instead of the Quad-A rosters of teams 30 games below .500. The stuff has always been there for Fulmer, but his ability to maintain his mechanics and consistently throw strikes both with his fastball and secondary stuff are going to dictate whether or not he’s a starter long-term. It’s one start, but so far, so good.

2. After the Opening Day dinger-fest, I wrote that the White Sox probably aren’t going to lead the majors in home runs. Well … five games in, the White Sox lead the majors with 14 home runs, including Wednesday’s solo shots by Matt Davidson and Jose Abreu, the latter of which proved to be the game winner.

Of course, the aforementioned statement is still true, but there’s no denying the White Sox have been more powerful than one could possible imagine thus far. And it’s not just that the balls are leaving the yard, it’s how they’re leaving. Avisail Garcia’s 481-foot homer Tuesday was the longest by a White Sox hitter in the Statcast era. Yolmer Sanchez — YOLMER SANCHEZ — hit one 442 feet!

Abreu’s power is never going to be a surprise, and when Davidson makes contact and it doesn’t leave the yard, that’s surprising, but even in the current run-scoring environment, the White Sox weren’t particularly dinger-heavy a year ago. The likes of Anderson, Sanchez, and Welington Castillo getting into the act is a welcome sight, for however long it continues.

3. The White Sox bullpen got beat around in Tuesday’s 14-5 loss, but bounced back for four scoreless innings in Wednesday’s win. Sure, Aaron Bummer allowed two inherited runners charged to Fulmer to score, but after he got two outs, the game ended with 3 1/3 hitless frames by Danny Farquhar, Nate Jones, and Joakim Soria.

There’s a lot of volatility in the White Sox bullpen. Bummer and Greg Infante are erratic, and the likes of Farquhar, Soria, and Luis Avilan .. well, there’s a reason the veteran arms were available for very little. Still, after last year’s reliever clearing sale, the fact that the White Sox have any semblance of competence in the middle innings without breaking the bank is pretty impressive.

A team, whether it’s rebuilding or not, could do a lot worse than the Jones-Soria duo in the eighth and ninth innings, and while it’s yet to be determined how the rest will shake out, there’s a lot of upside in the eclectic mix of veterans and guys trying to prove themselves as major league relievers.

4. Oh yeah, back to the play. While it was refreshing to see replay work in what appeared to be correct fashion, and it obviously played out in the White Sox factor, the overturn also overshadowed what was a horrendous play on the basepaths by Castillo. With the bases loaded and one out, the leaping, falling-to-the-ground, initially-called-a catch by Curtis Granderson somehow didn’t turn into a run at first as Castillo didn’t tag up and attempt to score.

It was what amounted to a brain fart that didn’t have an affect on the game’s outcome, but baserunning woes have plagued the White Sox for some time now. Last year, they made 58 outs on the basepaths (doesn’t include pickoffs or caught stealing), which, while not among the worst in the league, was still worse than league average. This year that number is already at four through five games, and doesn’t include blips like Castillo’s.

The flip side of this, of course, is that aggressiveness can beget more runs if executed wisely. Last year, the White Sox were almost exactly average according to BP’s baserunning runs stat, ranking 14th in baseball at -0.1. Stats this year are, of course, far from stabilizing, but it’s maybe worth noting that they’ve taken the extra base on a league-high 67 percent of opportunities through this minuscule sample size after ranking slightly below average in the category a year ago.

There are a lot of noise in these stats, so take them with a grain of salt, but seeing how the White Sox balance aggressiveness with smart baserunning will be something worth watching throughout the season.

5. The White Sox home opener is today, weather pending, with James Shields making his second start of the season against Detroit and Jordan Zimmermann. There will be festivities — including A.J. Pierzynski throwing out the ceremonial first pitch — weather pending.

The Tigers have looked as bad as every expected them to be through five games, going 1-4 against the Pirates and Royals. The White Sox get to play them 19 times this season, so if they have any interest in staying competitive later into the season than anticipated, beating up on this team would be a good way to do so.

Lead Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

I wrote Monday, after Castillo helped a struggling Lucas Giolito get through six innings and hit the go-ahead double in Saturday’s win over the Royals, about how big of a factor Castillo could be in the White Sox success after several years of sub-par play out of the catcher position, but on the heels of Monday’s pair of homers, it’s worth revisiting what the 30-year-old veteran could provide at a position where it’s very much needed.

It’s hard to over-emphasize how bad White Sox catching has been over the last two seasons. Last year, the combination of Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith (and a sprinkle of Geovany Soto and Rob Brantly) was 27th in baseball in FRAA_ADJ — a catcher-specific stat that takes all the normal factors that goes into FRAA and adds in framing, throwing, and blocking contributions — at -16.5. Only the Rockies, Phillies, and Tigers were worse. Offensively, Narvaez and Smith ranked 25th and 28th, respectively, in TAv out of 33 catchers who had at least as many plate appearances as either guy. Brantly led the White Sox in WARP out of the catcher position at 0.27. He had 36 plate appearances.

Now, Castillo: The then-Orioles backstop combined mostly with Caleb Joseph to help Baltimore rank second in the majors in that same FRAA_ADJ category, behind only the Dodgers. His TAv of .272 ranked 10th out of those aforementioned 33 catchers, and he ranked ninth among catchers in WARP.

That’s a lot of stats I threw at you to simply say: The White Sox catching was bad last year. But it’s been a while since they had consistently above-average play at the position, and a combination of above-average offense and defense is tough to find in a catcher in general. Even before the last two seasons and the smorgasbord of bad offered by Narvaez, Smith, Dioner Navarro, and Alex Avila, the White Sox couldn’t put it all together. In Tyler Flowers’ last year in Chicago, he helped the White Sox to a top 10 finish in FRAA_ADJ, which was a big factor in his above-average 2.3 WARP season, but he was a black hole at the plate, posting a .295 OBP and a TAv that ranked 16th out of 22 catchers with at least as many plate appearances as him.

Game calling behind the plate is much tougher to quantify, but both Smith and Narvaez regularly drew on-the-record praise from White Sox pitchers last year, while Flowers, of course, was always a personal favorite of Chris Sale’s. Castillo is still TBD, of course, but some of his quotes about getting Giolito through Saturday’s start seemed insightful, to say the least.

“Right away in the first inning,” Castillo said when asked when he noticed things were off. “That’s a guy who has a plus changeup and can throw it any count. He wasn’t throwing it for a strike. He was pulling it. His breaking ball too, it’s really good and he wasn’t throwing it for strikes. He was pulling it. Even his fastball command wasn’t there. Sometimes you have to go for Plan B. Just try to get him through it. He was fighting.”

…

“That was my conversation with him,” Castillo said. “Trying to remind him all the time you gotta go up down and not side to side. If you go side to side your arm is going to drop and you won’t command any of your pitches. I just tried to remind him every pitch, every at-bat, every hitter that he faced. I tried to keep him in the game and that’s the best because he don’t have his good stuff and he pitched six innings. So that’s really good for him.”

 So, if Castillo is so good, why did the White Sox get him for just 2 years and $15 million (with a team option for a third year at $8 million)? Besides the fact that it was a weird market, the fact that the White Sox could offer him a definitive starting job certainly played a factor. Beyond that, it could just be that, coming off easily the best season of his career, he still needs to prove he can do what he did over 341 plate appearances for a full season.

And, indeed, PECOTA projects regression from the 3.4 WARP he put up a season ago, pegging him at just 0.7 WARP this season and a return to below-average defense. That’s understandable. Castillo is 30 and had nearly 2,000 plate appearances to his credit coming into last season and had been worth a grand total of 4.5 WARP combined in his first seven seasons in the majors. Likewise, last year was the first where FRAA judged his defense as above-average. There was more than enough evidence that Castillo was nothing more than a replacement-level catcher that one season and ~300 plate appearances weren’t going to change that.

But catchers are weird, man. Nobody guessed that Flowers was suddenly going to become an offensive asset to go along with his superlative defense when he broke out for the Braves two years ago. It’s entirely possible that what Castillo did for the Orioles in 2017 is closer to the new norm for him after all the work he put in to improve himself defensively.

We often get wrapped up in our dreams of the future; of when the next hot White Sox prospect is going to debut and what the lineup and starting rotation could look like in 2020 and beyond. Zack Collins is far from a sure thing as a prospect, and even if he pans out offensively and sticks behind the plate, he’s still a few years away from contributing at the major league level. If Castillo proves that what he did in 2017 is the player he now is, as opposed to a fluky outlier in an otherwise forgettable career, it will be a coup for a team that’s struggled to find consistency behind the plate for a long time. And it will undoubtedly make the White Sox better in 2018.

Lead Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro – USA Today Sports Images

Outfield

Opening Day starters: Nicky Delmonico, Adam Engel, Avisail Garcia

All-Star Break starters: Nicky Delmonico, Ryan Cordell, Avisail Garcia

End-of-season starters: Nicky Delmonico, Ryan Cordell, Eloy Jimenez (Avisail at DH)

Optimistic take: Garcia hits as well as he did in 2017 and his defense takes another step forward, Delmonico’s bat-to-ball skills lead to a high batting average and his glove doesn’t hurt in any meaningful way, and Engel is merely “bad” at the plate instead of “totally lost” while providing value defensively and on the base paths. Cordell’s hot spring translates into a hot stint in Triple-A, where he forces his way to Chicago and either surplants Engel or is a useful utility outfielder. Charlie Tilson proves he can stay healthy over the course of an entire season and gets some useful time in the majors at some point during the season. Jimenez comes up by virtue of totally obliterating the minor leagues and turns into the second coming of Giancarlo Stanton.

Pessimistic take: Delmonico hits like someone who was never on anyone’s radar to begin with, Garcia hits like the year 2017 never happened, and Engel hits like he has his entire career. The back injury that kept Cordell on the shelf for most of 2016 flares up and he ends the season as a 26-year-old minor leaguer who can’t seem to stay on the field. Tilson gets hurt again, and Jimenez struggles with the high minors and ends the season looking farther away from the majors than he did before it.

Hot take(s): Cordell leads all White Sox outfielders in WARP.

—Collin Whitchurch

Infield/DH

Opening Day starters: Welington Castillo, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Yolmer Sanchez, Matt Davidson

All-Star Break starters: Welington Castillo, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Tyler Saladino/Yolmer Sanchez platoon, Matt Davidson

End-of-season starters: Welington Castillo, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Tyler Saladino/Yolmer Sanchez platoon, Avisail Garcia

Optimistic take: Castillo performs more or less exactly as he did last year in Baltimore, both offensively and defensively, but with ~150 more plate appearances. Abreu is Abreu, and we put away our worries of him aging ungracefully for at least another year. Moncada lives up to the pedigree of a former top prospect and solidifies himself as a legitimate superstar for years to come. Anderson is a 20 homers, 20 stolen bases guy with improved defense (asking him to increase walks is too unreasonable, IMO). Sanchez and Saladino solidify themselves as worth rostering as we move farther along into the rebuild. Davidson adds 50 points to his OBP to go along with his mammoth power and proves rosterable beyond 2018.

Pessimistic take: Castillo’s defense regresses to pre-2017 levels and his offense takes a significant step back, making him more or less platoonable and thrusting Omar Narvaez into more playing time. Abreu starts to age as poorly as we’ve feared, and he spends the year battling nagging injuries that zap his power. The swing-and-miss in Moncada’s bat is more of a hinderance than anticipated, and his other tools aren’t able to carry him as well as hoped. Anderson has essentially his 2017 season again, and the Sanchez/Saladino combo is below-replacement level.

Hot take(s): Moncada makes the AL All-Star team. Saladino bounces back from his poor 2017 and is traded before July 31.

—Collin Whitchurch

Lead Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Castillo somewhat represents the type of relatively cheap veteran the White Sox were expected to target this offseason, but the deal is nonetheless surprising given the 30 year old’s solid 2017 season, as well as the dearth of quality catching options on the free agent market. While splitting time with Caleb Joseph in Baltimore, he posted career highs in both home runs and slugging percentage, while his FRAA of 7.4 was sixth best among the 22 catchers who saw as much or more playing time. He was also an above average pitch framer according to BP’s framing metrics. All in all, he was worth 2.8 WARP, which more than doubled his career best season.

An upgrade at catcher is logical even in a year where the White Sox aren’t expected to contend. Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith both manned the position admirably in 2017 and received rave reviews on their game calling ability, despite shortcomings that make it obvious they’re both better served long term as backups. But whether it was Castillo or someone less heralded, catching depth was an area of need for the White Sox with nobody else looking near major league ready.

Castillo is a significant upgrade both offensively and behind the plate, helps the position from a depth perspective with either Narvaez or Smith destined for Triple-A, and helps bridge the gap between the present and when the White Sox believe Zack Collins will hopefully be ready to take over at the major league level. And while the likelihood that he maintains his success as he plays into his 30s is slim, he could be a potential trade chip down the road, as well.

In a second noteworthy move of the day, the White Sox also agreed to a 1-year, $1.05 million contract with Danny Farquhar, thus avoiding arbitration with the 30 year old right-hander who spent the latter portion of 2017 with the team.

Farquhar became available to the White Sox last season after a miserable first half in Tampa where his walk rate spiked to a career worst 5.7. But he’s only a year removed from being a reliable middle reliever and on a team starving for relievers after The Great Reliever Purge of 2017, is competent enough to prove a logical fit to eat up innings in 2018.

Lead Photo Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports