1. Jose Abreu & Nate Jones: These are the two players I was referring to above as trade chips. Rick Hahn & Co. were so effective at cashing in major leaguers for future pieces that they scorched all the way down to shuffling Dan Jennings and World Series Champion Tyler Clippard off the roster. One imagines Jones might have fetched a significant return if he had been healthy, and it seems unlikely that he would be dealt over the winter before he could demonstrate he is healthy again.

Abreu is even harder to evaluate. Not in terms of who he is on the field (or off it, for that matter) as his superlative 2017 corrected data points which had previously been trending downward, and he grabbed hold of the role of clubhouse leader with both hands and a big smile as all other veterans were purged. Abreu is under team control through 2019, which may mean he is around for the first good White Sox season in almost a decade, and departing as the window truly opens in earnest. Maybe he sticks around and is dealt at the deadline in 2019 if they’re not in it. Maybe he and the organization agree to buy out his arb years and tack on a few more. As it stands now, anyway, my sense is that the White Sox would have to be absolutely blown away to part with him this winter, as he means more than just the excellent offense he provides. It also strikes me as unusual that someone would want to “overpay” in talent for Abreu when there are good corner bats on the market for only money.

2. The “Jon Lester” Deal: This is a label that I have given this kind of signing, and I’ve mentioned it on a few podcasts and articles. The Cubs signed Lester to a huge deal before it was necessarily clear that the new crop of talent was ready to contend for the playoffs. Obviously that 2015 team did contend, but even if they hadn’t, the organization identified Lester as someone they wanted to have around through the next competitive window, and he would be a free agent before 2015 and not after.

Another thing to consider here, however, is that as a class, most free agents are reaching the market either in the middle of their peak or, as is often the case, on their downside away from it. Most free agent contracts are intended to provide most of their value up front, with the back end of the contract being less pleasant. In that sense, it may not be very helpful to line what should be the best year of a contract up with a season where you’re not trying to contend yet. Still, it’s worth remembering that it is nearly impossible to graduate a whole playoff team at once, and the free agent market may not always have what you want when you want it.

Still another general principle influencing the process here is that one of the biggest benefits of being a team that “plans” on losing a lot is having a surplus of playing time to distribute among players who may or may not be good for the purposes of evaluation. Sure, the Astros got Correa as a direct result of being the worst team in the league in a given year, but they also still have Marwin Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel because who else was going to get those at bats and those innings on those teams? And hey, they turned out to be crazy valuable. Signing mid-level free agents in a rebuilding year may only serve to block an audition for a player who turns out to be much better than you anticipated.

There may not be a Lester-esque fit in this class. But, it might make sense to scoop up Lorenzo Cain if it looks like he’s going to sign for less than he should. He’s older than one might think, but as a plus defender with good on-base skills, Cain may age more gracefully than some.

3. Buying A Potential Mirage: In the 2015 playoffs, Daniel Murphy morphed from a slightly above average hitter with a below average glove to a juggernaut and then hit free agency. Clearly, given that he was only able to command a 3-year, $37.5 million contract, teams didn’t buy that those playoffs were for real. Turns out it was! Murphy has gone on to slaughter baseballs for the next two seasons and the Nationals found an absolute steal.

Logan Morrison and Yonder Alonso, 30 and 31 years old respectively, are both free agents coming off of very good years at the plate after drowning a good amount of prospect shine with thousands of plate appearances of mediocrity. If pressed, I would certainly predict them both to fall back toward their previous performance levels. But at a certain point, if the price tag is low enough, the risk that they do may be offset by the possibility that 2017 represents their new normal and you wind up with a good bat on the cheap.

This is only scratching the surface of the possibilities out there, but we hope you join us for another White Sox offseason, and thank you for spending the 2017 season here at BP South Side.

Lead Photo Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Rodon has gotten a lot of ink this winter thanks to his strong 2015 finish and the expectations that accompany him into his sophomore season, including a piece this morning going into the details on why we may be looking at a breakout. What’s the big deal? After a rocky beginning to his career in which he basically alternated decent and tough-to-watch outings, he closed the year on a high note, lowering his ERA in each of his final eight starts. Getting deeper into games and limiting, but by no stretch eliminating, walk totals proved a good look for him, and leaves him room to build.

A couple of days recovered from sickness, Sonny Gray is now prepared to make his first start of the season. Gray is coming off of a season in which he finished third in Cy Young voting, but isn’t pegged by PECOTA to repeat on that success. As James pointed out earlier in the week, Gray’s peripherals don’t paint the picture of the same pitcher at home as they do on the road. For less than mysterious reasons, he pitches to contact much more, relying on the cavernous O.Co Coliseum to lend him protection. The White Sox have walked just three times in their first two games, and if Gray elects to consistently stay inside the zone, it may prove to be helpful to the seemingly aggressive swinging South side squad.

White Sox Lineup:

1. Adam Eaton – RF
2. Jimmy Rollins – SS
3. Jose Abreu – 1B
4. Todd Frazier – 3B
5. Melky Cabrera – LF
6. Avisail Garcia – DH
7. Brett Lawrie – 2B
8. Alex Avila – C
9. Austin Jackson – CF

Athletics Lineup:

1. Billy Burns – CF
2. Khris Davis – LF
3. Jed Lowrie – 2B
4. Danny Valencia – 3B
5. Billy Butler – DH
6. Josh Phegley – C
7. Mark Canha – RF
8. Yonder Alonso – 1B
9. Marcus Semien – SS

Yonder Alonso, the lone left-handed swinger in tonight’s lineup for Oakland, is 1-for-5 thus far in the series. The Sox failed to force Josh Phegley to make an out in last night’s contest so I’m sure he’s feeling pretty good about himself. The MVP of the series in the first two games for the Athletics could be argued in favor of Marcus Semien. The glove-last shortstop might be batting ninth, but he’s collected a pair of hits and a walk, and has even yet to commit an error. Some quick mental math confirms that puts him well behind his 2015 pace, where he committed 35.

Adam Eaton and Jose Abreu have both hit the ball well in each of the first two nights, despite the latter having a couple of poor looking plate appearances last night. Eaton is riding a streak of 24 games in which he’s reached base, the longest of his career. I’d be unsurprised to see both get aggressive early in the game before the cool air settles in to the East bay and keeps the ball from carrying much.

Lead Photo Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports