Danks’ story is a sad one. He had a great frame, simple mechanics, a solid fastball, and a plus cutter. Throw all of it together and you had the makings of a high-end No. 3 or a low-end No. 2 starter depending on some variation. Then, after a contract extension, his shoulder went pop and his fastball became pretty bad, his cutter lost all life, and he attempted to forge onward armed purely with guile and a changeup. The fact that he managed about 500 innings of replacement-level pitching was a testament to his work ethic and savvy, but by 2016 it became clear that was no longer enough.

After he was released, Danks wasn’t picked up by anyone, and unless he comes back with a knuckleball or something his career is almost certainly over before his 32nd birthday. At the very least, he has a singular triumph to remember forever, which was his dominant outing in Game 163 in 2008; arguably the most important non-2005 game for the organization in…well, decades.

Latos was arguably a success, especially when you take expectations into account. Like Danks, he once had the look of a mid-to-frontline starter and then had his career derailed by injuries. Unlike Danks, Latos bounced around the majors and there were always rumblings that he was a handful in the clubhouse. He was a long shot to succeed, and his cheap contract was a reflection of that.

Still, even if it was smoke and mirrors, for a while he did succeed. And while peripherals give you an idea of how someone is going to do moving forward, through March and April, Latos had an ERA of 1.84, which is pretty much a 90th percentile result for a temporary scrapheap stopgap. Having Cy Young caliber run prevention–flukey or not–for a month helped the White Sox get out to a 23-10 start. He imploded pretty quickly afterward, and he latched on with the Nationals on a minor league deal.

Jacob Turner’s acquisition was really, really weird.  Even at the beginning. In a vacuum, adding a down-on-his-luck former top prospect isn’t weird, but adding one who looked so done on a guaranteed major league deal is weird. Especially for an organization that acts like $1.5 million might make a difference in making some other necessary acquisition or not.

Turner pitched so badly that the White Sox turned to him when all else had failed and only let him make two starts before permanently banishing him to the bullpen. Evidently he showed so little that when Anthony Ranaudo got pummeled repeatedly to the point where there were legitimate questions as to whether he could keep his ERA under 10.00, he was still deemed to be a more attractive option than Turner. On Wednesday, the White Sox outrighted Turner to AAA, removing him from the 40-man roster. Whatever they saw must have vanished quickly, and to date, their fear that if they didn’t give him a major league deal he would be scooped up by some other team remains without evidence.

Speaking of Ranaudo, he was acquired in the same way as Hector Noesi and it worked out just about as well as that acquisition did too. You know, the “wow, he looked great while the White Sox’ miserable offense annihilated him for another team” scouting method.

I am not discussing the biggest success and biggest failure from this area of the roster, as those each deserve their own article. But Ranaudo and Turner represent two more evaluation failures to be left at the feet of the front office.

Lead Image Credit: Kim Klement // USA Today Sports Images

But as each disaster piles on top of each other, they will be pressed to answer if they are truly moving toward that goal by shoving Shields out to the wolves every five days for the rest of 2016. Not that they have a ton of alternatives. Anthony Ranaudo starts Sunday.

1. After two days already of Brian Dozier entering high fastballs from White Sox pitching into orbit, Shields floated him another in the first, and his thunderous clout erased an early 1-0 lead in the first inning. When Carlos Sanchez gave Shields the lead back by rapping an RBI single to left in the second, Shields answered by chucking a high-80s fastball up in the zone for a two-run blast to the second deck in deep left-center from Byron Buxton. As much hopelessness as was implied by the beginning of Shields’ night, his third inning was beyond the pale, beginning with a leadoff walk to Trevor Plouffe–he walked the leadoff hitter in all three innings he began–and was quickly followed by a third deck moonshot on another dead fastball to Miguel Sano.

After following that blast with a walk to Eddie Rosario, Shields’ evening ended with five runs allowed, four walks and three home runs in 2.1 innings. He’s allowed more runs in some starts since arriving in Chicago, but Shields was utterly hopeless Saturday night. There was no hope for him to get through a major league order with any consistency. Surely other people saw this.

2. Just as an addendum, any lingering optimism for Jacob Turner as a short reliever got a thorough torching as he tried to put out Shields’ fire. A throwing error by Todd Frazier on a Dozier ground brought home a run and extended the disastrous inning, but the only out Turner otherwise got on his own was when Rosario was thrown out at a home on a Juan Centeno single, so they split the difference, really. Plouffe hammered a hanging 3-2 slider out to center for a three-run home run that capped a six-run, zero earned-run appearance for Turner, and gave the Twins all the runs they would need. Given that it was 11-2, maybe it was a bit more than they needed

3. Adam Eaton blasting a leadoff home run to left off old friend Hector Santiago gave some early false hope of a good night, and after Sanchez singled home a run with two outs and advanced to second on a throw home while Alex Avila settled in at third, the Sox were a Eaton lineout finding turf away from a big inning in the second. Despite Santiago noticeably missing miles on his fastball, Tim Anderson was stranded at second after clocking a leadoff double off the wall in the third, and the Sox did not reach base again until Melky Cabrera led off the sixth with a booming solo shot to left. At that point, it all felt a little silly going through the motions.

4. Michael Ynoa is pictured because by finishing the nightmarish third inning, and stringing together two more scoreless innings while striking out four, he was by far the standout performer of the night. Perhaps he can be the next hopeful reliever the Sox can start piling opportunities upon. Juan Minaya also contributed two scoreless innings of his own in the second game of his career

5. The White Sox are now 21-34 against AL Central competition.

Team Record: 64-71

Next game is Sunday at 12:10pm CT at Minnesota on WGN

Lead Image Credit: Jeffrey Becker // USA Today Sports Images

Jayson Stark:

“‘The only thing that matters to Chris Sale is winning,’ [Sale’s agent] said, in a text. ‘If he perceives that something is distracting from that or being prioritized over that, he is going to have a problem with it.’

…

‘If they are on board with prioritizing winning, there will not be an issue at all.'”

This sentiment, on its face, can be very easily refuted. Of course, the White Sox care about winning. Beyond any organization’s desire to make an entertaining and profitable product, they have made a series of short-focused moves. They sliced into their prospect depth to get two years of Todd Frazier, traded for two years of Brett Lawrie, and while their bevy of one-year deals split the difference between trying to compete on a budget and filling black holes with replacement-level veterans, all were completed with the open intent of winning, right now in 2016 and maybe 2017 too as a bonus.

The question, after five years of spinning in the mire despite having an inexpensive bonafide ace dealing at the top of the rotation, is whether the Sox–avoiding above-median payrolls and felled by foreseeable holes they refused to fix with expensive options regularly–are willing to do enough to win.

They haven’t been to the playoffs since 2008, sparing 2013 and 2014 as rebuild years, and maybe even acknowledging 2009 wasn’t exactly pedal to the metal, this is such a stretch of time where everything is on the table as far as identifying why the Sox cannot build a contender; from bad luck, to bad moves, bad scouting, to being too committed to winning on their own terms to make the sacrifices necessary. It’s something one might think on while the Sox are reportedly considering trading their cost-controlled ace to restock a team with a cheap, affordable core and a mid-level payroll.

Questioning that is also questioning the Sox commitment to winning, so is just saying “I don’t want to go through another rebuild,” but neither of those are public statements a player who could still be with the organization for a very long time would want to make.

“I want to win,” “We want to win too!” is an easier path to a public resolution, and it appears that’s the path Sale is taking.

2. That said, five games is a perfect suspension for Sale; an acknowledgement of unacceptable behavior while providing a path for the quick return to normalcy that both parties want.

3. The situation has still left the White Sox bullpen more or less screwed. They were already reeling from having to cover for Jacob Turner‘s masterpiece on Friday before Sale tossed them a whole staff game, which was exacerbated by rain delay craziness in the middle of a 17 games in 17 days stretch. A more clear example of hurting your team with selfishness would be hard to find.

David Robertson is unquestionably in the middle of a bad year by his standards, with cratering peripherals of every kind, and his command looked terrible late Sunday afternoon. But it looked pretty solid earlier Sunday afternoon, when he struck out half the hitters he faced on got weak contact from the other two. Three solo home runs are obviously extraordinary, but so is warming up and pitching three times in 24 hours. What is the realistic expectation for a pitcher in that situation?

4. Not content to merely cause consternation in their own clubhouse, Ken Rosenthal reported the White Sox recently protested the Mariners’s new policy of taking 60 percent of tips left by visiting teams for clubhouse attendants. The Mariners policy doesn’t involve them just taking the money, reportedly, but distributing among clubhouse attendants and handling expenses as they see fit.

It definitely could be seen as shady, given the nature of the Mariners seemingly just imposing formalities on a highly informal arrangement, and the White Sox protested by just not leaving any tips at all. While their stance against management moving in to regulate tips for lower level employees is admirable, their protest led by player representative Adam Eaton, and of course, Sale, seems like it risks harming the people for which they are advocating and doing little to sway the people with whom they are upset.

5. Beyond my own Chance fanhood, and without knowing any details about where the revenue is headed and how this will be split, this is good.

.@chancetherapper to Host Star-Studded Music Festival at US Cellular Field on September 24 https://t.co/UrMFhVyAmipic.twitter.com/QzEHeJB9BV

— Andrew Barber (@fakeshoredrive) July 25, 2016

U.S. Cellular Field is a state facility that was built and justified by its potential to generate revenue for the state. Any extra funds it can generate by host more events, especially given the limitations the White Sox have had in providing surplus revenue, is good. There has been a genuine effort to expand the Cell’s use in recent years and it is owed some genuine praise.

Lead Image Credit: David Banks // USA Today Sports Images

Still, getting tuned up by the last-place Angels and shut down by a degraded Jered Weaver, which in turn capped a deflating sweep to begin the second half, probably is enough to start edging in the word “disaster” as a descriptor.

1. If the Sox were looking for telltale signs that Turner would have trouble with a major league lineup, he offered them up early. He walked leadoff man Yunel Escobar on four pitches, and after a pair of whistling lineouts, Albert Pujols cracked the first of two home runs off Turner for the day off to the rockpile in center. He faced the minimum over the second and third innings, but any notion of Turner ‘settling in’ was blasted away in his second turn through the heart of the order.

Mike Trout‘s leadoff double quickly became another run on Pujols’ second blast, and the Angels extended their lead to 6-1 on back-to-back RBI doubles from such luminaries as backup catcher Jett Bandy and utility infielder Gregorio Petit. Turner still came back for the fifth inning, but was chased after walking the first two men he faced, and Michael Ynoa was unsurprisingly ill-equipped to clean up the mess without incident.

2. With one out in the third, Omar Narvaez, effectively the fifth-string catcher if we’re following along from the start of the year, tracked a 67 mph Jered Weaver curveball and blasted it into the left-center gap for his first career major league hit. One out later, Adam Eaton got a hold of a 80 mph…fastball, change?…and drove it to the same place, but on a lower line plane to bring Narvaez home, and the White Sox scoreless streak died at 34 innings.

That was the Sox only run of the day, and their only two extra-base hits of the day. All three of the at-bats with runners in scoring position took place in this inning as well. They scored a run, though.

3. Weaver, dragging his way through starts with a sub-85 mph fastball, and still helming and eating innings for a definitively doomed Angels pitching staff despite an ERA well over 5.00, tossed his second gem of the season against Sox hitting despite not a hint of swing-and-miss stuff. He’s allowed two runs against the Sox in 14 innings despite striking out only three.

4. Carson Fulmer making his major league debut was so clearly the highlight of this game, there should be some sort of effort to censure me for holding it back this long. He struck out two over two scoreless, efficient innings, allowing just one single and throwing just 21 pitches (four whiffs) to seven batters. He pumped his low-to-mid-90s fastball in the zone on demand, and his high-80s slider was overwhelming. Those mechanics are low and violent but he looks like a reliever to enjoy this Summer.

5. This week will bring seven-straight against teams ahead of the Sox in the standings for the last Wild Card spot, and 14 games in a row total. The Sox front office doesn’t need a barometer for the quality of their team, but there should be some extra emphasis placed on the state of things by the end of the month.

Team Record: 45-46

Next game is Monday at 9:10pm CT in Seattle on CSN

Lead Image Credit: Jayme Kamin-Oncea

“Lincecum is not found treasure, because the whole league has the damn map.” — Matt Adams

Tim Lincecum To The White Sox checks a lot of narrative boxes.  The White Sox have been snatching up insurance for the starting rotation wherever they can find it of late–e.g. Miguel Gonzalez and Jacob Turner.  They also have a reputation of being an organization that gets the most out of its pitchers and keeps them healthy, which makes them an attractive destination for players trying to rebuild their value–e.g. Mat Latos.  You can even throw in the whole “Lincecum has a weird delivery and the White Sox seem to care about that less than everybody else!” thing too, if you like.  Couple these factors with reasons to be worried about Latos, that John Danks seems to be Completely Done Forever, and that the team looks like a playoff contender and it’s not hard to see a fit here.

For my part, however, I am not really interested.  The absolute best case scenario is that every other organization but the White Sox sees Lincecum– last seen averaging 88mph on his fastball– as done, but Don Cooper catches something they don’t, the Sox snag him on a minor league deal and he has some sort of revival.  That is extraordinarily unlikely.  On the other hand, if Lincecum does look good, he’s going to cost money, as there will be multiple suitors for his services, and even then there will be a lot of risk.  Maybe they are willing to give him guaranteed major league money and nobody else is…but if you’re a White Sox fan, wouldn’t that kind of scare you? Maaaaaaaaaybe Lincecum looks pretty good, but takes less from the White Sox because he thinks they’ll help him perform better than other teams will?  Perhaps that is the only semi-realistic scenario where adding Lincecum makes sense.

The thing is, for all that the back of the rotation makes me anxious, there are fallback options.  Jacob Turner, Erik Johnson, and Miguel Gonzalez are all in Charlotte ready to be called in as reinforcements.  None of those options are exciting and nor should they be.  We are talking about the sixth, seventh, and eighth starters in the organization whom the White Sox put behind Latos and Danks to start the year for a variety of reasons.  However, they are also credible depth.  Gonzalez has had success at the major league level and looked serviceable against a terrifying Blue Jays lineup in his spot start.  It could be that all three of these guys bomb out, but you can deploy them with a straight face, and it is not a crazy idea that one or more of them might stick in the modest role they would be asked to fill.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the White Sox have basically been running a “platoon” of Jerry Sands and Avisail Garcia at DH, and while it has somehow been adequate it would strike me as incorrect to prioritize adding depth to the rotation ahead of adding more offense.  It is only the beginning of May, but we are also seeing the beginning of trade speculation, and there are some real impact bats out there who could make a gigantic difference for a team like the White Sox. Having more financial flexibility may make it possible to secure the services of one of those bats while reducing the prospect price of the deal.  I am more confident that Ryan Braun would be massive upgrade for this club than  Tim Lincecum would be, both due to the caliber of the players involved, and the in-house resources that would otherwise be devoted to solving the problem.  Gonzalez, Johnson, and Turner aren’t thrilling, but they’re much better than…what, Jason Coats? Matt Davidson? Because that’s kind of it as far as Charlotte goes.

If the White Sox can bolster their rotation without it compromising their ability to add a bat, then hey, go for it.  But given this organization’s spending history, it seems like an either-or proposition at the moment, and I know which one I would prefer to add.

]]> http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/03/rumor-mill-white-sox-will-attend-lincecums-showcase/feed/ 0 http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/18/jacob-turner-potential-fifth-starter-or-bullpen-dark-horse/ http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/18/jacob-turner-potential-fifth-starter-or-bullpen-dark-horse/#comments Fri, 18 Mar 2016 14:00:38 +0000 http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=203 With the season looming closer each day, the White Sox are still searching for the answer to the question many are posing, “Who will be the White Sox fifth starter?” since with John Danks being the team’s largest monetary expense in 2016, it’s only safe to assume he will be taking on the role of fourth starter one last time.

That leaves reclamation project Erik Johnson, newly acquired starter Mat Latos, and waiver wire addition Jacob Turner in the running. Turner comes to the club on a 1-year $1.5 million deal, and is out of options.

We can see already that perhaps Erik Johnson’s control issues are too vast for him to mitigate before the start of the 2016 season, potentially already having sealed his fate for 2016. While Mat Latos may not bring his career-best numbers to the South side this season — he’s still an established big league starter. That’s a track record that a young 25-year old Turner does not yet possess.

So what’s the case for Turner then? He seems to be the odd man out in this situation.

Not having pitched in the major leagues since 2014 due to a right flexor strain, his role in many organizations would likely be defined as “open to interpretation”. When baseball last left off with Turner, he was three years into a major league career that has landed him in Detroit, Miami, briefly on the North side of Chicago, and now on the South side of Chicago. In only two of those seasons, 2013 and 2014, had he served as a starter.

Coming to a club where you’re competing for a fifth rotation spot with someone such as Mat Latos could serve to hinder your hopes of establishing yourself as a back end starter if you’re still somewhat of a newcomer. Due to the context of  his situation coupled with the organization Turner is coming to, his skills seem best delegated to the bullpen right now.

The thing is, that’s okay for Turner. His makeup is one that can swing either way, possibly leaning towards the idea that working out the bullpen may be the best way to maximize his success. Turner can be good in short bursts, as we saw during his first White Sox start earlier this month, as well as his first start back from his injury. Turner cruised through two innings in which he only allowed one walk and one hit. He demonstrates decent velocity, which is always preferred in a bullpen role, his fastball topping out at 94.4 mph in June 2014 and 94.9 on the radar gun this Spring.

The main concern I have with Turner, whether he be in the bullpen or rotation, is the amount of contact he allows coupled with the lack of strikeouts. With a sinker and a curveball in his repertoire, he is a heavy groundball pitcher, posting ground ball rates as high as 52 percent with Miami, but a K/9 rate of just 5.6.

Turner posted a low walk rate of 2.6 BB/9 in 2014, coupled with a WHIP of 1.60 — which together serve as evidence that indeed, contact is an issue for him. Take a look at these batting average zone maps on two groups of pitches for Turner in 2014:

The zone map on the left is the batting average on his most frequented pitches, his fastball, sinker, and slider. The zone map on the right is his secondaries, his changeup and curveball. Contact. Lots of contact in the middle of the zone, and low and away to lefties.

A piece by Dave Cameron at Fangraphs posted in August 2014, suggests that Turner also does poor against — ca-ching — left handed batters. Cameron suggests that “barring some dramatic improvement from either his change-up or his curveball, he profiles best as a middle reliever.” Well, unfortunately, Turner would not see another major league season after the conclusion of 2014, the season in which Cameron wrote that piece. So we have yet to see if his change or curve have at all improved, perhaps making him a more effective starter with a strong weapon to use against lefties.

For right now though, Cameron is right, Turner best profiles as a reliever. If he can keep the ball on the ground, and begin to limit his contact a bit more, he will have a shot at being a good middle relief option for the White Sox in 2016.

The fate of the White Sox rotation will soon take definitive shape, and right now Latos is my guess to inherit the last rotation spot. Latos may not have been the most effective starter in 2015, and he may not prove to be any better than his competitors at the position, but having pitched 100+ innings for six of his seven year career while showing past ability to post ERAs in the mid to low 3.00 area, he seems like most logical option for now.

Turner may have skipped a year of baseball during a key time in his role development, but if he can pick up where he left off without showing regression and continues to work on limiting contact and raise his strikeout levels, he’ll be able to find himself a nice niche in the majors; be it in a starting rotation or a bullpen role. And remember, he is on a $1.5 million one-year deal in 2016, so the White Sox can always re-up if they feel he’s showing promise and potential.

Lead photo courtesy Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

1. Erik Johnson already had enough working against him going into Spring. Weeks before camp, a Mat Latos-shaped obstruction was placed in front of his inside track to a spot in the starting rotation. He was coming off a September audition that provided some nice superficial results but some garish background figures like a 4.99 DRA and a more immediate inability to spin an impressive breaking ball, and it was revealed over the offseason that he might be less likely to soak up the teachings of Don Cooper than the rest of the pitching staff.

Spring Training is mostly meaningless and Johnson getting tuned up in his first two outings — and man, that box is checked — can be shrugged off, and maybe even some lagging velocity could, too. But in concert with every other factor working against him and a previous history of letting sloppy mechanics rob him of juice on his fastball for seasons at a time, this is troubling.

Erik Johnson’s velocity last time out was 87-91. Today it was 85-89, according to a scout in Mesa. Plenty of spring to go. But worth noting.

-Dan Hayes

2. Johnson missing out on the top five spots of the White Sox rotation is to be expected, but the Sox need him to not fall off the map because their rotation depth is not equipped to handle it. Jacob Turner has more name value than reasons to expect success until stories of a Cooper-fueled development or a new pitch emerges. Scott Carroll had some nice moments as a one-time-through-the-order long man last season, but is a spot starter who will quickly strain the bullpen with regular use. Chris Beck would already be a questionable option given his 14.5 percent career strikeout rate in the minors, but he’s working his way back from injury.

In sum, if there’s anything to John Danks‘ March struggles, the scenario Mauricio Rubio of 2080 Baseball floated to me over the weekend, where Carson Fulmer is being rushed into aid midseason, becomes easy to see.

3. Rob Brantly was out of options and needed some sort of early Alex Avila health breakdown to make the roster. While his departure to the Mariners opens up troubling questions about the Sox catching depth beyond the risky platoon of Avila and Dioner Navarro, the Sox might have been doing him a favor by allowing him the opportunity to catch on (get it? GET IT?) elsewhere.

In the meantime, the Sox need to hope Hector Sanchez‘s bat isn’t dead, and are immediately in need of a new goalie.

Image from @WhiteSox on Twitter

4. Jason Benetti had a successful debut to the White Sox booth on Saturday, showing a good rapport with Steve Stone early and plenty of energy. Despite his newness for the Sox fanbase, he’s a seasoned professional from his ESPN days and should have no real problem handling the work.

Where Benetti will really make a difference is maintaining enthusiasm over the long haul of a possibly disappointing season. An engaged Hawk is an acquired taste for sure, but not the urgent situation needing to be addressed that his listless, morose drifts through the dog days of the season became. Cutting out drives to and from Michiana to Chicago would certainly improve my mood, but the test of the year will be if it provides a rejuvenated Hawk, or just gives Sox fans a season where they get half their games with a superior broadcast and half without.

5. March 24 is the date to start getting worried about Adam Eaton‘s shoulder. That’s because March 23 is his reported target date to return to playing in the field. Eaton has been reduced to designated hitting in Spring games as he completes his throwing rehab program to build strength after October shoulder surgery.

Luckily, Eaton’s slow march to full action hasn’t derailed plans to move him around the outfield corners, and it continues to be refreshing to see how his status of an entrenched starter is not getting in the way of letting a superior fielder — Austin Jackson — man center.

Adam LaRoche also returns to action Monday after missing time with back problems. Being able to look healthy and productive for a long stretch is must for him.