While this is not an enviable position for any team (just ask the New York Mets), for the White Sox and former No. 3 overall pick Carlos Rodon, it’s the reality each they find themselves in.

It was not long ago that young southpaw John Danks was in line to take over for an aging Mark Buehrle.

The Sox even chose to give Danks a five-year extension and let Buehrle leave in free agency, following then-manager Ozzie Guillen to the Miami Marlins in 2011.

Up to that point, Danks’ biggest accomplishment was his performance in the storied “Blackout Game,” he had positioned himself as one of the more talented young starters in the game, posting two consecutive 200-inning seasons and three straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons before age 26.

The White Sox trade of perennial Cy Young candidate Chris Sale in the winter of 2016 and subsequent trade of Jose Quintana the following summer left the team without a frontline starting pitcher for the first time since 2012. Although the Sale trade was a signal that the White Sox had chosen a new direction after years of mediocrity, it did, however, leave them without an ace. 

While losing a perennial Cy Young candidate is a tough blow, the White Sox had to feel good about knowing they not only received a potential replacement in return, in the form of Michael Kopech, but they had also groomed their own — Rodon — who was waiting in the wings and ready to take that next step.

Now, more than a year removed from Sale’s departure, the Sox are still without an ace on their staff of young, unproven starters and old journeyman innings eaters, and the up-and-coming starter who the White Sox had hoped would take the next step hasn’t.

The 25-year-old left-hander has shown flashes of his potential but has been unable to take the “next step” due to nagging injuries, including the most recent injury, and underwent shoulder surgery at the end of the season.

Sound familiar?

Thankfully in Rodon’s case, the arthroscopic shoulder surgery he had last fall isn’t nearly as serious as the torn shoulder capsule that ultimately brought Danks’ days as an effective starter to an end. But even still, shoulder injuries to pitchers are scary, and the fact that the last 12 months have been riddled with setbacks for a pitcher as talented as Rodon has to be frustrating for the White Sox, who obviously have big plans for him.

Rodon is throwing now, and Rick Hahn has thrown out June 1 as a potential return date for him. Is there room for concern? Absolutely. Like with Danks then, Rodon’s health is an important part of the White Sox future contention plans. But pitchers are notoriously fickle, and while there’s still a long road ahead and the White Sox remain one of the more prospect-laden organizations in baseball, it’s hard not to think about Rodon going down as another first-round pick whose career was never able to fully take off.

Lead Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Danks’ story is a sad one. He had a great frame, simple mechanics, a solid fastball, and a plus cutter. Throw all of it together and you had the makings of a high-end No. 3 or a low-end No. 2 starter depending on some variation. Then, after a contract extension, his shoulder went pop and his fastball became pretty bad, his cutter lost all life, and he attempted to forge onward armed purely with guile and a changeup. The fact that he managed about 500 innings of replacement-level pitching was a testament to his work ethic and savvy, but by 2016 it became clear that was no longer enough.

After he was released, Danks wasn’t picked up by anyone, and unless he comes back with a knuckleball or something his career is almost certainly over before his 32nd birthday. At the very least, he has a singular triumph to remember forever, which was his dominant outing in Game 163 in 2008; arguably the most important non-2005 game for the organization in…well, decades.

Latos was arguably a success, especially when you take expectations into account. Like Danks, he once had the look of a mid-to-frontline starter and then had his career derailed by injuries. Unlike Danks, Latos bounced around the majors and there were always rumblings that he was a handful in the clubhouse. He was a long shot to succeed, and his cheap contract was a reflection of that.

Still, even if it was smoke and mirrors, for a while he did succeed. And while peripherals give you an idea of how someone is going to do moving forward, through March and April, Latos had an ERA of 1.84, which is pretty much a 90th percentile result for a temporary scrapheap stopgap. Having Cy Young caliber run prevention–flukey or not–for a month helped the White Sox get out to a 23-10 start. He imploded pretty quickly afterward, and he latched on with the Nationals on a minor league deal.

Jacob Turner’s acquisition was really, really weird.  Even at the beginning. In a vacuum, adding a down-on-his-luck former top prospect isn’t weird, but adding one who looked so done on a guaranteed major league deal is weird. Especially for an organization that acts like $1.5 million might make a difference in making some other necessary acquisition or not.

Turner pitched so badly that the White Sox turned to him when all else had failed and only let him make two starts before permanently banishing him to the bullpen. Evidently he showed so little that when Anthony Ranaudo got pummeled repeatedly to the point where there were legitimate questions as to whether he could keep his ERA under 10.00, he was still deemed to be a more attractive option than Turner. On Wednesday, the White Sox outrighted Turner to AAA, removing him from the 40-man roster. Whatever they saw must have vanished quickly, and to date, their fear that if they didn’t give him a major league deal he would be scooped up by some other team remains without evidence.

Speaking of Ranaudo, he was acquired in the same way as Hector Noesi and it worked out just about as well as that acquisition did too. You know, the “wow, he looked great while the White Sox’ miserable offense annihilated him for another team” scouting method.

I am not discussing the biggest success and biggest failure from this area of the roster, as those each deserve their own article. But Ranaudo and Turner represent two more evaluation failures to be left at the feet of the front office.

Lead Image Credit: Kim Klement // USA Today Sports Images

1. Jon Heyman’s report on the White Sox being unlikely and unwilling to kickstart a rebuild or reloading of their farm system by trading Chris Sale or Jose Quintana, has three very typical elements of any update on Sox operations.

–A refusal to do something radical or franchise re-shaping.

–Assurance that the owner whose tenure has been marked by mid-level teams exceptionally wary of both free agency and amateur spending, “really wants to win.”

–A really bizarre choice of an outside player to zero in on.

It’s unsurprising the Sox do not want to break up their core. As we have stated this week on our podcast and in our writing, they should not be seeking a rebuild at this time when they are so close to having a functional roster. Why on Earth the Sox are pondering moving trade pieces so valuable they are lacking in comparable cases from the last 15 years, and Jackie Bradley Jr.–the lowest-ceiling member of the Red Sox cluster of young outfield studs, who is currently going through a second half slide that is making everyone question just how trustworthy his bat is–that is the player they are staking their decision on whether or not to rebuild on, is simply beyond all of us.

Perhaps it doesn’t matter how you make your way to the right decision.

2. A Chicago Tribune report from contract documents of the naming rights deal reached to change U.S. Cellular Field to Guaranteed Rate Field next season, shows the White Sox will not receive any new revenue from the deal.

I just want to say that yours truly, the Chicago Sky, the Philadelphia 76ers, Al’s Italian Beef, character actress Margo Martindale, Richard M. Daley*, my downstairs neighbor, the estate of the dog that played Air Bud, and countless other entities who, like the White Sox, do not own U.S. Cellular Field nor pay for its upkeep, will also not be receiving any new revenue from the naming rights deal. We’re all very upset, and exploring our legal options.

*As far as I know.

3. Juan Minaya and Kevan Smith comprised the first crop of September call-ups for the Sox, with Minaya even making his major league debut Thursday night. These are about as logical selections as it gets: spare bullpen arm and a third catcher.

Save for Zack Burdi, of course, the 25-year-old Minaya was the last guy left in the Charlotte bullpen with stats that would suggest he’s projectable, with a 3.38 ERA and 28 strikeouts to 10 walks in 26.2 innings. Smith, who tweaked his back warming for his major league debut in late-April and didn’t return to regular action until July 15, has not been much for hitting since then, collecting a .199/.271/.371 line in 40 games.

Charlotte still has games scheduled through the weekend (Carson Fulmer is the scheduled starter Friday night) so there’s still time for more players to get the call, but Burdi has now appeared in 51 games and thrown 65 innings in 2016. He might not need to add to it, even if shutting him down precludes the Sox from fulfilling the fundamental role of September call-ups: providing someone exciting to break the monotony of watching a bad team wind into the abyss.

4. The White Sox, clearly lacking the budget of other would-be competitors, had to find ways to be aggressive. One of the ways they chose early on, was to cut bait on unproductive veterans when it was clear they were unlikely to help. Jimmy Rollins got involuntarily retired, Mat Latos got put on the waiver wire, and beloved clubhouse veteran John Danks was sent packing even though he was owed over $10 million. It seemed brutally efficient at the time, but since then the Sox efforts to compete have been revealed to be farcical, and James Shields has been such a disaster that his metrics go blow-for-blow with the lefty the Sox.

Shields has a 7.19 FIP while Danks had a 6.06, he has a 122 cFIP for the season, including his decent beginning in San Diego, while Danks was only at 124, and both have been better than Anthony Ranaudo, who the Sox have been reduced  to using until Miguel Gonzalez returns. Remember that Danks made just four starts in 2016. In a rare move, the Sox pushed aside sentiment for a clear-eyed assessment that his stuff had deteriorated beyond what was acceptable, and then their scouting botched the Shields trade and they wound up even worse off. And we wonder where they get their bad habits from.

5. Quintana, a fringe Cy Young case without name brand recognition, who has a bad Win-Loss record and needed something dramatic like a wide ERA lead to make any kind of case, raised his ERA by .28 in one night and now is behind much more likely cases such as Cole Hamels.

The White Sox haven’t won an MVP or Cy Young award since BP South Side’s favorite 21-year-old Ethan Spalding was born, and this is pretty standard for how things go.

If there is one thing Matt Kemp can still do well, it’s hit a baseball with a wooden stick. Over the last two and a quarter years, Kemp has hit to the tune of a robust .277/.327/.482 slash line and a corresponding TAv of .291, well above the league average mark of .260. As of right now, there is only one player on the White Sox with a better TAv for this season, Brett Lawrie at .302, and he almost definitely won’t maintain that production for a whole season. And while there’s great reason to think that Jose Abreu will rebound and possibly boast a better offensive slash line and TAv, there’s a very real chance that Kemp would come to the White Sox and immediately be their best offensive player, which would no doubt be a gigantic boost to an offense that certainly needs it.

While much has been made of the White Sox desire to acquire a left handed bat, the White Sox have actually been more effective against right handed pitching this season with a .691 OPS against righties and a .684 OPS against lefties. At this point, more offense really trumps the handedness of the batter and Kemp would obviously still improve the offense against righties too, as he would most likely be replacing Avisail Garcia (who I’d suggest the White Sox include in a trade offer for Kemp) and his multi-year TAv of .232 against right-handed pitching.

But what really makes Kemp the ideal trade target for the White Sox is his production versus acquisition cost relative to the other alternatives out there. Kemp was acquired last offseason by the Padres as part of AJ Preller’s aggressive moves to make the Padres great again!

At the time of acquisition, Kemp was owed $107 million by his then current employer the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers volunteered $32 million, $18 million of which came in 2015, to the Padres to help cover Kemp’s financial burden and facilitate the deal. Preller’s moves would fall flat as the Padres failed to win 75 games last season and now they currently sit in dead last in the NL west at 10-16. As most of the Dodgers’ financial help came last season, the Padres have now been saddled with essentially a four-year, $72 million contract for an aging slugger that the team clearly has no use for.

Since the Padres have been notoriously cheap since they came into existence as a franchise, there is obvious financial incentive for them to rid themselves of Kemp. In all likelihood, this means the White Sox could acquire Kemp for no significant assets if they’re just willing to take on the entirety of the Matt Kemp contract, which they absolutely should be.

The White Sox received a $13 million lifeboat earlier this year from the retirement of Adam LaRoche. Roughly one-sixth of the season has expired which means Kemp is effectively due $15 million the rest of the year, and that total decreasing every passing game. At this point, acquiring Kemp is no greater a financial burden for the 2016 season than having Adam LaRoche was, so it would stand to reason that the White Sox would be willing to take on all of Kemp’s salary in 2016 without issue.

The White Sox will also no longer have the contract of John Danks around in 2017, which, again in theory, would mean that the team would be capable of absorbing Kemp’s contract next season also without issue. You could argue that the White Sox would not want Kemp’s contract in 2018 and 2019 and you’d absolutely be correct, but right now being saddled with an albatross contract in two years, when the White Sox have less than $50 million in total guaranteed salary committed for each year, is a burden the team must be willing to bear, especially during the team’s best chance at the postseason since 2012.

The other alternatives aren’t exactly enticing either. The White Sox could have the Padres absorb more of the contract, which means an increase in prospect cost. Or they could trade for a player like Carlos Gonzalez who only has two remaining years but has more trade value, which also means an increase in prospect cost, or trade for another less productive bat like Jay Bruce, which.. yuck.

The White Sox don’t have the prospects for another big trade unless they’re willing to part with either Tim Anderson or Carson Fulmer, which probably isn’t a great idea for the White Sox in the long-term. The farm system is thinned out free agency hampered the 2015 draft and the Todd Frazier trade this winter. The best asset the White Sox have is financial flexibility, and they should use as much of it as they can to increase both the short-term and long-term outlook of the franchise.

After all factors are considered, I believe Kemp is the most logical and realistic target, as emphasizing salary relief can really serve to minimize the prospect package going out west in return. I certainly hope the White Sox front office is aggressive and Tuesday’s news about Danks suggests just that, so ideally it’s only a matter of time before Kemp is a White Sox. Sock? Socks? Who cares as long as he slugs some dingers?

Lead Image Credit: Jake Roth // USA Today Sports Image

“We’ll always have the Blackout Game” was a familiar refrain as news of Danks being designated for assignment broke, which is the first strong hint of the deep sadness conjured by Danks’ end. 2008’s Game 163, Danks shutting out the hated Minnesota Twins over eight innings to clinch the AL Central was supposed to be his breakout party, not his peak.

I rewatched his season-ending gem a while back, delivered a week before Danks would stride to the mound again and secure the Sox’ only playoff victory of the last 10 years. It’s not Danks’ masterpiece; a magical night where everything in his arsenal is working. Danks’ performance is nervy and unrefined. His signature changeup makes a few token appearances, but he mostly fights his way through with his fastball, which the 23-year-old Danks had enough life on to keep away from the Twins’ barrels on a cold Chicago night.

It’s absurd now to think of him thriving like this: on raw ability, before full command of his pitches set in, but it was a reason for optimism at the time. ‘John Danks when he puts it all together’ was a specter that hung over his career after his breakout 2008 campaign and lingered over his prime, while the real John Danks was having the best years of his career and propping up a pitching staff that regularly made noble efforts to drag bad offenses to the playoffs. A big contract extension raised expectations beyond where he could ever hope to match, even if it was his just dessert for performing through his arbitration years. Then his shoulder went, and his run as a great No. 3/fringe No. 2 starter became a lost Garden of Eden.

Between this downward spiral, and Danks’ own brutal recognition last week that the red-hot contender he had been waiting years to be a part of had come too late for him to be of help, it’s tempting to see his career as tragic, and a collection of unfulfilled opportunities. But that wasn’t what it was like to watch John Danks every day. As much as he didn’t reach the ambitions his greatest moments inspired, his nadirs were never inescapable.

As much I remember the Blackout Game, I remember Danks getting bled for a six-run second inning in mid-July 2010 in Target Field. With the Twins magic wanding every ball through the Sox defense, a capacity crowd thundering, it looked like the type of quagmire that should swallow an overmatched pitcher whole. Instead Danks dragged himself through six innings,  the last four scoreless, gliding through the same lineup that just tore him apart while the Sox offense crawled back for an improbable victory. I remember that the last start before Danks’ shoulder gave out on him, if it hadn’t already, was six and a third scoreless frames at Wrigley Field; his best night of what was already a bad year.

And I’ll remember that in Danks’ last start in a White Sox uniform, after he had already been rocked for back-to-back home runs in the third, completely exposed for not having anywhere near enough guile and pitchability to cover up that the last of the major league-quality gas had left his arm, he threw two more scoreless innings. For his last out, maybe the last one he’ll ever record, he was 3-2 with Adam Jones, and snapped off one more, great straight change, tumbling away with fade, and fooling the All-Star centerfielder for his last strikeout.

Tuesday’s news was inevitable, a decision that anyone who saw Danks’ contorting himself to throw 87 mph over the heart of the plate knew had to come, and soon. And yet it still surprised. Jerry Reinsdorf-run teams have eaten money to cut bait on players before. Jeff Keppinger has been cited, and who would have thought they would see references to former Bulls forward Eddie Robinson this week, but neither of those guys had anything left, and never played in the league again afterward. But Danks always carried the possibility that he could tiptoe his way through one more start with no stuff, maybe even stymie the Royals again, and delay the axe for another week or two. Maybe Rick Hahn knew he could too, and decided he had to make the decision anyway.

Brett Lawrie has provided a huge immediate lift, the Todd Frazier trade was an aggressive move borne of relentless effort to work a deal for an All-Star third baseman, but perhaps no move has been as brutally serious about improving the White Sox 2016 chances as ousting their longest-tenured player and a beloved clubhouse presence. The Sox were already committed to Danks’ 2016 salary and receiving solid evidence that they could improve upon his performance from league-minimum salary contributors, so verification that the budget is expanded to push this squad to the playoffs is still pending.

Baseball careers are not built for happy endings. The same level of determination that pushes players to the big leagues drives them to compete until it is shown they can’t anymore, typically in demoralizing fashion. Yet it takes a specific level of seriousness for the White Sox to come to a place where their ambitions can no longer live alongside an indulgent quest to bring along a lagging veteran for the ride, even one who deserves to be there the most.

Lead Image Credit: Matt Marton // USA Today Sports Images

The much-maligned left-hander will be designated for assignment this week and granted his release after declining a minor-league assignment, the team announced Tuesday. In 22 innings across four starts thus far this season, Danks had a 7.25 ERA with 16 strikeouts against 11 walks.

Danks, acquired in 2006 along with Nick Masset in exchange for Brandon McCarthy, signed a five-year, $65 million extension in in 2011 that was generally regarded as a smart decision by the White Sox after a three-year run in which he posted an ERA+ of 115 or above. Just 26 at the time, the White Sox were locking up a pitcher through his prime years for below the going rate for a solid No. 2 starter. But in August 2012, Danks underwent left shoulder surgery that zapped most of his power, and the deal quickly lost its shine as he never again posted an ERA+ above 89.

As for the rotation spot once occupied by Danks:

Rick Hahn content to try out Erik Johnson, Miguel Gonzalez & Jacob Turner for now.

— Dan Hayes (@CSNHayes) May 3, 2016

The White Sox will roll with the trio of depth options they have in place, with Johnson slotted for Thursday’s start against Boston.

As for Danks, he will become a free agent and it’s tough to envision him getting much of a shot given recent results.

Also read

Mark Primiano on why the Danks decision was no longer difficult

Frank Firke on the precedence of a decision like this

Top Photo Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

“Lincecum is not found treasure, because the whole league has the damn map.” — Matt Adams

Tim Lincecum To The White Sox checks a lot of narrative boxes.  The White Sox have been snatching up insurance for the starting rotation wherever they can find it of late–e.g. Miguel Gonzalez and Jacob Turner.  They also have a reputation of being an organization that gets the most out of its pitchers and keeps them healthy, which makes them an attractive destination for players trying to rebuild their value–e.g. Mat Latos.  You can even throw in the whole “Lincecum has a weird delivery and the White Sox seem to care about that less than everybody else!” thing too, if you like.  Couple these factors with reasons to be worried about Latos, that John Danks seems to be Completely Done Forever, and that the team looks like a playoff contender and it’s not hard to see a fit here.

For my part, however, I am not really interested.  The absolute best case scenario is that every other organization but the White Sox sees Lincecum– last seen averaging 88mph on his fastball– as done, but Don Cooper catches something they don’t, the Sox snag him on a minor league deal and he has some sort of revival.  That is extraordinarily unlikely.  On the other hand, if Lincecum does look good, he’s going to cost money, as there will be multiple suitors for his services, and even then there will be a lot of risk.  Maybe they are willing to give him guaranteed major league money and nobody else is…but if you’re a White Sox fan, wouldn’t that kind of scare you? Maaaaaaaaaybe Lincecum looks pretty good, but takes less from the White Sox because he thinks they’ll help him perform better than other teams will?  Perhaps that is the only semi-realistic scenario where adding Lincecum makes sense.

The thing is, for all that the back of the rotation makes me anxious, there are fallback options.  Jacob Turner, Erik Johnson, and Miguel Gonzalez are all in Charlotte ready to be called in as reinforcements.  None of those options are exciting and nor should they be.  We are talking about the sixth, seventh, and eighth starters in the organization whom the White Sox put behind Latos and Danks to start the year for a variety of reasons.  However, they are also credible depth.  Gonzalez has had success at the major league level and looked serviceable against a terrifying Blue Jays lineup in his spot start.  It could be that all three of these guys bomb out, but you can deploy them with a straight face, and it is not a crazy idea that one or more of them might stick in the modest role they would be asked to fill.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the White Sox have basically been running a “platoon” of Jerry Sands and Avisail Garcia at DH, and while it has somehow been adequate it would strike me as incorrect to prioritize adding depth to the rotation ahead of adding more offense.  It is only the beginning of May, but we are also seeing the beginning of trade speculation, and there are some real impact bats out there who could make a gigantic difference for a team like the White Sox. Having more financial flexibility may make it possible to secure the services of one of those bats while reducing the prospect price of the deal.  I am more confident that Ryan Braun would be massive upgrade for this club than  Tim Lincecum would be, both due to the caliber of the players involved, and the in-house resources that would otherwise be devoted to solving the problem.  Gonzalez, Johnson, and Turner aren’t thrilling, but they’re much better than…what, Jason Coats? Matt Davidson? Because that’s kind of it as far as Charlotte goes.

If the White Sox can bolster their rotation without it compromising their ability to add a bat, then hey, go for it.  But given this organization’s spending history, it seems like an either-or proposition at the moment, and I know which one I would prefer to add.

]]> http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/03/rumor-mill-white-sox-will-attend-lincecums-showcase/feed/ 0 http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/whats-the-precedent-for-releasing-john-danks/ http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/whats-the-precedent-for-releasing-john-danks/#comments Mon, 02 May 2016 11:00:53 +0000 http://southside.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1610 In light of his gophertastic start on Thursday, there was a general consensus among White Sox fans on Twitter (and on this site) that John Danks’ left shoulder has finally run out of useful bullets, and so its owner needs to go. Given that Danks is due a prorated $15.75 million for the rest of this year, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which another team takes on his salary without additional compensation. With the deal up at the end of the year and thus not affecting any future spending, it would be pretty severe malpractice to part with any other players just to be rid of Danks.

All this leaves the White Sox in the odd position of likely releasing their longest-tenured player (nobody else on the roster was even in the organization when he made his debut) and only remaining link to the last White Sox team to make the playoffs. It wouldn’t mark the end of an era as conspicuously as the departures of Mark Buerhle and Paul Konerko, but a midseason release for a guy with that much history with a club struck me as a bit unusual. So, what’s the precedent for a player like this getting the boot during the season?

To answer this, we can use Retrosheet’s transaction database to identify releases and waiver claims, then looked at all midseason releases since 1980 (roughly the free agency era).

One important caveat: this doesn’t cover all players who were designated for assignment, only those that were released or claimed off waivers as opposed to being outrighted to the minors.

As a measure of tenure, I used the number of games played for the franchise during that stint with the team; to make position players and pitchers comparable, I treated each start as five games played and each relief appearance as 2.5.

If he were to be released, Danks would certainly be an outlier based on this metric, as you can see in the chart below. Danks is the red line, and he doesn’t have too much company:

He’s not unique, though, and here are the players that got released despite comparable track records with their teams (Danks’ 1,230 number doesn’t include his promised start on Wednesday):

Looking at the list, a few things jump out that enhance Danks’s outlier status:

• He’s young. Only Mario Soto was the same baseball age, and Danks is actually 9 months younger for accounting purposes (April birthday, instead of July).
• He’s pitching in this decade. Only three of the other nineteen happened since the 1994 strike. (I’m not sure what it was, but presumably there was a structural change such that releasing veterans became much less common in the last 20–25 years.)
• He’s taking up a lot of payroll. Contracts from before a few years ago are very hard to compare to today’s numbers, but none of the other recent players made up as large a share of his team’s opening day payroll as Danks’s 16% (Graves, Rueter, and Inge were at 9%, 8%, and 5%, respectively).
• Another aside: for someone like me who doesn’t remember 1993, it’s a bit surprising that Fisk is on the list, given the reputation the White Sox have under Jerry Reinsdorf’s regime for being loyal to a fault. Fisk was 45 and been fighting about money and playing time with Ron Schueler in the middle of a pennant race, so it’s not too surprising he’s the rare vet the White Sox pushed out.

Overall, then, there isn’t really a precedent for Danks’s situation once we take era, age, and salary into account, and even without those exacerbating factors there aren’t many comparables. This has no bearing on the merits of the decision—just because nobody’s done something quite like this before doesn’t mean it’s not the right thing for the White Sox to do. What this list does bring out, though, is how many abnormal, largely unfortunate occurrences have to pile up for a team to consider releasing a guy who could’ve been the face of the franchise under other circumstances.

Transaction data via from Retrosheet, salary information via Baseball-Reference, games played and age data via the Lahman database, opening day payroll information via here, Code for analysis and figures can be found here.

Lead Image Credit: Tommy Gilligan // USA Today Sports Images

John Danks‘ start against the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday should be that moment for the Chicago White Sox.

Danks has been a wonderful representative of the franchise his entire career, but he simply cannot pitch at a high enough level to be given starts anymore for what is now a surprising contender, regardless of salary and past history. His fastball is averaging 87.8 mph, down a full four mph from his peak years. His cutter no longer cuts. His changeup, which was once fantastic, is no longer has the same velocity difference from his other pitches to be as effective as it once was.

Which is all pretty damned heartbreaking, if we’re being honest. Danks came to the White Sox as a Top 60 prospect, part of the Texas Rangers’ vaunted DVD trio (which is maybe the most mid-2000s sentence I’ve ever typed). He’s the only one who actually went on to have anything close to the career his hype promised. Thomas Diamond pitched 29 innings for the Cubs in 2010 and that was it. Edinson Volquez gave the Rangers 80 horrible innings before being flipped to Cincinnati for Josh Hamilton and going on to have a decent enough career as a No. 4 starter type for five other teams.

But John Danks was different. He left Texas before having thrown a single pitch for the Rangers in exchange for Brandon McCarthy. The Rangers got three years of injuries and average results from the former White Sox top prospect. The White Sox got a solid fixture in the rotation for the next five years. From 2007 to 2011, Danks was worth 19.9 bWAR and 15.5 fWAR. Not an ace, but a pretty nice thing to have from a young cost-controlled starter. Things had gone so well that the team opened up their wallet and gave out a franchise record five-year, $65 million contract. All that from a team that had forever been reluctant to sign a pitcher for more than three or four years.

And then, the following May, his shoulder exploded. Shoulders are horrible joints. Most joints work like Legos or jigsaw puzzles. Everything works because the pieces connect perfectly. Shoulders are more like a loose conglomeration of twigs, Silly Putty, and a beehive that kind of fit together until they don’t. Pitchers more often than not do not bounce back from shoulder surgery. Look at Johan Santana. Look at Mark Mulder. Your shoulders are not your friends.

Since coming back from surgery, Danks has impressively managed to be worth 1.3 bWAR and 2.6 fWAR since 2013, and I mean that sincerely. It’s an injury that should have completely ruined him. Instead, it just kind of slowly poisoned the rest of his career. After Thursday’s start, Danks has a career high in BB/9 (4.43) and a new career low in K/BB (1.45). But you don’t need to look at advanced stats or any stats at all to know that he’s toast. You just have to watch him pitch for an inning. His current approach to every hitter is to throw the ball near home plate and pray for the best. There’s just nothing left in the tank, and it’s depressing.

John Danks was a damned good pitcher for the White Sox before his arm betrayed him. His Game 163 dominance of the Twins in 2008 remains one of my favorite non-2005 White Sox memories. But that was eight years ago. It wasn’t a terrible idea to try and see if he still had anything left to offer since the team was on the hook for this year’s $15.75 million annual salary no matter what, but it’s become readily apparent that he just no longer does. If the White Sox are going to compete in 2016, it’s going to have to be without John Danks. It’s time to do what’s best for everyone involved and make the uncomfortable decision.

1. It was an odd strike zone on the night, but not odd enough to justify Danks working frequently behind hitters while using maximum effort just to fling the ball in the high-80s with no life. A sharp relay from Austin Jackson and Jimmy Rollins off a booming Adam Jones double to center field saved Danks from more than a single run in the first, but the smoke-and-mirrors act fell apart in the fourth. Chris Davis took Danks deep for a two-run shot on one of the gentlest home run swings ever seen, then Mark Trumbo followed it up with one of the most violent, as all of Danks’ ability to miss bats evaporated and the Sox fell down 5-2.

In true Danks fashion, he managed to nearly take it through the sixth without another run on him, but a leadoff double by J.J. Hardy ended his evening.

2. Danks wound up getting charged with six runs on the night, because a series of unfortunate events befell reliever Jake Petricka — an error on a hard-hit grounder to Brett Lawrie and a tapped infield single in front of home plate — before Manny Machado blasted a grand slam to left-center to cap a five-run inning that put the game out of reach.

Dan Jennings and Daniel Webb both pitched in mop-up work, and the latter somehow pulled out a scoreless inning.

3. The stat line for Danks, (5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 2 HR) will not tell the story or accurately reflect what was troubling about his outing Thursday night. The stuff just wasn’t there at all. He was using an incredibly high-effort and off-balanced delivery to pipe in flat 87 mph fastballs with no real sense of location. The marvel here, and what has been the incredible thing about Danks’ past few years, is that he’s worked his way through so many games with so little in his arsenal. But he has lost another 2-3 mph on his fastball even from last year’s version of Danks and asking him to continue like this is just asking too much.

4. The White Sox took an early first inning lead Thursday night with Todd Frazier‘s sixth home run of the season; a long fly ball that just carried out to left off Orioles starter Tyler Wilson.

That was the only mark the Sox offense scratched all night, but they showed their fighting spirit in the fifth. A couple of grinding PAs from Jackson and Adam Eaton drove Wilson out of the game early after 25 pitches in the fifth, and Jose Abreu working a full count walk gave the Sox a chance to bring the go-ahead run to the plate in the presence of Frazier while they were still down just 5-2. Frazier whiffed and the rally sputtered, but it does not appear that it would have mattered anyway.

5. Abreu and Avisail Garcia both collected two hits and each drew a walk, a positive note from the two struggling behemoths in the lineup.

Team Record: 16-7

Next game is Friday at 6:07 p.m. CT at Baltimore on CSN

Lead Image Credit: Tommy Gilligan // USA Today Sports Images