USATSI_9339039_168381442_lowres

Are the White Sox in trouble with James Shields?

It’s two starts.

Well, three starts, if we want to peel back the moldering basement tile and see what’s underneath James Shields‘ last start in San Diego. But from Sabermetrics pre-school, when we were all playing and stacking building blocks and learning to only count them if they represented a statistically significant sample, we know that three starts is still a tiny stretch of performance to weigh against the last nine years of one of the most reliable, if not ever elite, starters in baseball.

But worrying about Shields is not a statistical case. He looks awful. He is not getting BABIP’d, he’s getting hammered. His velocity is normal enough, but he would otherwise have a hard time arguing he’s in perfect health. A pitcher who averaged less than two walks per nine innings in 2014 suddenly can’t find the plate with his fastball, one of the best changeups in the game is floating in high and listless, and nearly every curve is a hanger, if it’s near the plate, that is.

The whole nightmare was exacerbated by the Tigers coming into Monday night smelling blood, jumping out aggressively on every Shields effort to stabilize himself by grabbing easy strikes. But a top lineup out for the kill is not the reason why Shields suddenly has an exaggerated finish on his pitches, or can’t repeat his delivery. That he somehow dragged his way through two scoreless innings—his first scoreless frames in a Sox uniform–to close his night seems like the real miracle buried underneath the headlines of the Sox incredible comeback from down 7-0.

Decline, and the end of careers, are typically brutal and gracelessly quick, but even in this world, and even with the red flags that were present in his performance before the last three times out, Shields transforming from horse to pinata like this would be jarringly swift if it is indeed permanent. In this case, “jarringly swift” will have to stand in for “unlikely,” which I am not confident enough to use at the moment.

Jeff Samardzija certainly sucked some of the air of invincibility away from pitching coach Don Cooper, but the Sox are have shown themselves capable in the business of tweaking and adjusting, and certainly are not the team with which a pitcher who looks as completely broke and lost as Shields should be bereft of hope. $27 million through 2018 does not feel like the bargain it seemed like a week ago, but it’s too soon to have any real view into what kind of pitcher he will be at the end of the year.

But with any trade or free agent signing of a veteran, especially when it’s at market value, or committed to several years, the ability to eke out value at the end of the contract is a secondary concern. The raison d’etre is the immediate return, and getting an immediate upgrade right now. Paying Shields in 2018 is simply part of the cost of securing his production in 2016, and if he cannot provide an immediate lift to the Sox rotation, or even stabilize it, he will fail to fulfill the purpose of the trade.

While the Albert Pujols contract with the Angels was always perilous, the reason it became a disaster and the same reason Adam Dunn contract became irredeemable is not the foreseeable decline, but the failure of either player to be the value add that was paid for in the first year, when their contribution was most important and they were young enough to pose the best chance of producing at a high level that had defined their careers to date.

As it stands, Shields finding his old form is on the same pressing timeline as the Sox’ need to revamp their flawed roster. It needs to happen now, because every week going by diminishes the value of it happening at all.

Related Articles

3 comments on “Are the White Sox in trouble with James Shields?”

JofpGallagher

The White Sox are in more trouble with Robin Ventura.

Back to your point, I think Shields may have a mechanical issue, and if it is just that, that’s fixable. If it is an arm issue, then we are screwed, but I am inclined towards the mechanical issue. He was pitching just fine a month ago. How can that disappear all the sudden?

Dalger

San Diego could not wait until trade deadline to try to get more…they knew James “Big Inning” Shields was finished. If they had pitched him again, everybody would have known.

The White Sox got snookered into giving away players and money…good deal, Kenny. (Your lap dog, Rick Hahn, has a great job.)

This organization stinks.

To Kenny Williams, Rick Hahn, Robin Ventura, Don Cooper and all of the rest of you untalented, bumbling fools: GO AWAY!

oldbopper

You nailed it. The Padres read the tea leaves and got Shields on the first bus they could find. Realize, as well, that this article was written before Saturday’s complete fiasco.

Leave a comment

Use your Baseball Prospectus username